Is McDavid overachieving due to division reallignment?

[GrizzGreen]

As opposed to obliterating the California teams?

My thoughts exactly, I think he'd be doing just as well in the Pacific, not exactly the strongest division either.

 

[Adamantoise]

Statistically, its a few % easier to score in the North. Notihing massive though - Mcdavid would run away with it in any division (most likely).

We literally have the entire Last season where we saw how the Canadian teams did defensively and offensuvely against the whole NHL. Its not like were running in the dark here.

 

[Fataldogg]

He would torch the league regardless what division he was in.

He would win the Art Ross regardless of the division he plays in. He is the favorite in any given year.

 

[Korpse]

It would great if every team had to play Connor McDavid 9 times in a season.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Not trying to start an argument.

But I am curious, do you feel like no player in the north division has inflated stats?

I remember in the matthews thread people were saying that his goal scoring was inflated due to who he's playing against.

Not really.

North division: 3.03 GAA
Central division: 2.93 GAA
West division: 2.87 GAA
East division: 2.88 GAA

So while the North is the highest scoring division, its very marginal.

Let's say McDavid played in the central, instead of the North, like Kane. There is a .1 decrease in scoring, over 34 games, is a 3.4 decrease in goals scored per team. McDavid factors into 51.7% of his teams, offense, so McDavid would statistically expect a 1.76 point decrease in offense. I'll be generous and round up, so with 2 points knocked off his total, McDavid still dominates with 58 points. If he was moved to the East/West he'd lose 2.6 points off his total, so again I'll be generous to you and say, he'd be at 57 points. Anyway it is cut he still has a strangle hold on the Art Ross.

I'd get being suspicious of McDavid's insane year if he wasn't doing very similar results the past year 34 games in where he had 57 points compared to his 60 now. Also considering he is still young at 24, it's definitely not out of the realm of imagination that he improved.
Matthews never had inflated goalscoring imo, he's a great goalscorer who got extremely hot like they sometimes do, now he's cooled off and his numbers are looking less impressive and more realistic.

The whole north inflates stats narrative is as strong as paper mache and people seem to love it. McDavid would have similar stats, if not better stats, in any division with the way he's playing this year. Look at his numbers versus the metro division teams, they're better than his offensive production against the pacific or Canadian teams.

 

[t0nedeff]

back to back years he had 51 pts in first 29 games if there were anyone who isn't being propped up by this alignment it's Mcdavid.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Yes, but he'd win the Art Ross in any division.

 

[Adamantoise]

I think Mcdavid might do even better in the pacific division.

He has traditionally shredded Colorado, VGK, San Jose, Anaheim, Arizona, LA and Minnesota considerably more than the Canadian teams. Only St Blues have given him trouble from that division.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Definitely inflated, but likely still would win.

 

[Xspyrit]

Annnnd now we've arrived at the point of removing home games from a player's total to try and diminish their accomplishments. Who could've predicted removing half McDavid's games against one team would lower his point total? Checkmate atheists!

Annnnd for some reason you think that I care about this "debate" or that I am trying to diminish anybody's accomplishments. Ever heard about the expression "food for thought"? I am just providing FACTS, you do absolutely whatever you want with them. I'm sure some rational people will be interested to learn about them.

So I am a Sens fan, I don't give a crap about McDavid. He could decide to pursue a ballerina career instead, I wouldn't blink an eye. All I know is the Sens haven't been able to play defense on the road, mainly against the Oilers and Canucks. 28 goals in 5 games vs Oilers, 16 goals in 3 games vs Canucks, which is 44 goals in 8 games, which is 5.5 goals per game given up... which is not really NHL level... I mean it's the highest total of GA/GP since the Penguins/Whalers/Kings in 1982-83, a completely different ERA

Seriously the emotionnal attachement some have regarding these things is kinda weird. You can't basically say anything anymore on this site without emotionally desperate people jumping on your posts. There's no problem arguing or even defending a player, but at least provide some arguments or facts, not some kind of weak emo crap.

 

[BlueBaron]

I don't think comparing Matthews to McDavid ever ends well for Leafs fans, but please proceed.

By the way, I never said Matthews played in a weak division. What I've said is that if anyone has had his point totals inflated in the North in comparison to his typical statistical output, it's Matthews. And that was the case (borne out by simple statistics) before he went into his usual annual slump. Still probably is the case even taking that into account, actually.

Meanwhile McDavid scored at a similar rate last season compared to this one with 57 points in 34 games. So, again, your opinion that his totals are inflated in the North and that a guy who has finished in the top 2 for the Art Ross soon to be 5 seasons running wouldn't win it in another division is pure idiocy.

LOL. He wasn't comparing them as players but only in the context of the narrative of the division boosting numbers. You'll have to look further west for an obsession with comparing them. Knowing Matthews is injured and has been playing that way sort of throws your "mini slump" notion down the toilet.

We can play the same game with Marner, is he doing well because of the division or could we consider both he and Matthew have finally been united, given more ice time, and are in typical break out year age?

Nah let's just pretend the Leaf guys are helped by the Division but the Division is somehow harder for the Oilers making their numbers more legit....

To answer the OP: McDavid always challenges for the scoring title so this poll question is silly.

 

[Gains]

He has 9 pts in 10 games vs Toronto & MTL. 51 pts in 24 games vs Winnipeg, Calgary, Ottawa and Vancouver.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It has nothing to do with the division, which isn't even weak. This is similar to what Crosby did at the same age. We just didn't get to fully witness it from Crosby, due to injury.

 

[North Cole]

McDavid and Draisaitl vs Ottawa this season, on the road :

McDavid : 0 G 1 A 1 Pt in 2 GP
Draisaitl : 1 G 1 A 2 Pts in 2 GP

McDavid and Draisaitl vs Ottawa this season, at home :

McDavid : 3 G 12 A 15 Pts in 5 GP
Draisaitl : 6 G 9 A 15 Pts in 5 GP

Without these 5 home games vs Ottawa :

McDavid : 18 G 27 A 45 Pts in 29 GP, 1.55 PPG (he had 1.52 PPG last season)
Draisaitl : 12 G 23 A 35 Pts in 29 GP, 1.21 PPG (he had 1.55 PPG last season)


I'll let everyone figure out the answer for this poll. Ottawa can't defend on the road to save their life. It's not a coincidence, Ottawa is 7-6-3 and a +1 differential at home. They are 4-14-0 and -44 differential on the road... Basically 2 completely different teams.

Need to note that Ottawa struggles on the road are mainly vs the Canucks and Oilers. Not destroyed too much vs Calgary and Winnipeg and hanged in there vs Montreal and Toronto

I also see that McDavid has 8 pts in 2 home games vs the Flames.

Last change is important if your coach knows how to use it - something TMac could never figure out. Without those games against Ottawa, he's still pretty comfortable in the scoring race. He's what, 1 point ahead of Kane with 4 less games if you take those away? That's still significant. Kane has quite a concentration of his points against the Jackets - 13 in 6 games. I guess people look at them differently since they are in a playoff race, but their goalDiff is not good.

 

[Xspyrit]

Last change is important if your coach knows how to use it - something TMac could never figure out. Without those games against Ottawa, he's still pretty comfortable in the scoring race. He's what, 1 point ahead of Kane with 4 less games if you take those away? That's still significant.

Yes, McDavid is still the best offensive player in the league, and probably top-5 in history. Just had to note that particular statistic vs Ottawa on home ice. They are just not able to contain McDavid/Draisaitl when they are paired together. And frankly, not a lot of teams can. Our defense is quite bad this year, our #2 and #3 are Nikita Zaitsev and Mike Reilly... Those 2 and Gudbranson get abused on the road if you compare their advanced stats at home vs on the road. Chabot too but poor guy, has to play 30 mins a night as the real top-4 D-man on the team

 

[VinikToWinIt]

I looked into this a bit this morning after a STRONG response from Oilers fans at the suggestion that repetition could impact everyone's numbers.

If we extrapolate the bottom 2 teams in a group of 7 (28.6% of teams) to a group of 31, we're left with 9 teams.

Last season:
Against bottom 9 teams: 1.35 PPG (20GP, 27P)
Against rest of league: 1.59 PPG (44GP, 70P)

This season:
Against bottom 2 teams: 2.31 PPG (13GP, 30P)
Against rest of division: 1.43 PPG (21GP, 30P)

It's pretty clear he's feasting on Calgary and Ottawa, with a full 50% of his points coming from those games in 38% of the season.

He'd win the Art Ross anyways, but his numbers are boosted FAR more this year from the bottom teams than last year, where he actually did better against teams outside of the bottom 9.

 

[BCNate]

Scary thing is the North is far better than the Pacific. Just wait till he gets back into that division now that he is getting into his prime.

 

[PromisedLand]

North division defense and goalies are much weaker compared to other teams in the league IMO

McDavid probably still wins Art Ross but doesn't have as inflated stats as he does in the North Division. This includes Auston Matthews' goal scoring pace btw and I am a Leafs fan

 

[authentic]

Not really.

North division: 3.03 GAA
Central division: 2.93 GAA
West division: 2.87 GAA
East division: 2.88 GAA

So while the North is the highest scoring division, its very marginal.

Let's say McDavid played in the central, instead of the North, like Kane. There is a .1 decrease in scoring, over 34 games, is a 3.4 decrease in goals scored per team. McDavid factors into 51.7% of his teams, offense, so McDavid would statistically expect a 1.76 point decrease in offense. I'll be generous and round up, so with 2 points knocked off his total, McDavid still dominates with 58 points. If he was moved to the East/West he'd lose 2.6 points off his total, so again I'll be generous to you and say, he'd be at 57 points. Anyway it is cut he still has a strangle hold on the Art Ross.

I'd get being suspicious of McDavid's insane year if he wasn't doing very similar results the past year 34 games in where he had 57 points compared to his 60 now. Also considering he is still young at 24, it's definitely not out of the realm of imagination that he improved.
Matthews never had inflated goalscoring imo, he's a great goalscorer who got extremely hot like they sometimes do, now he's cooled off and his numbers are looking less impressive and more realistic.

The whole north inflates stats narrative is as strong as paper mache and people seem to love it. McDavid would have similar stats, if not better stats, in any division with the way he's playing this year. Look at his numbers versus the metro division teams, they're better than his offensive production against the pacific or Canadian teams.

Also McDavid played injured last season and Matthews has been playing injured for atleast half of this season now.

 

[authentic]

I looked into this a bit this morning after a STRONG response from Oilers fans at the suggestion that repetition could impact everyone's numbers.

If we extrapolate the bottom 2 teams in a group of 7 (28.6% of teams) to a group of 31, we're left with 9 teams.

Last season:
Against bottom 9 teams: 1.35 PPG (20GP, 27P)
Against rest of league: 1.59 PPG (44GP, 70P)

This season:
Against bottom 2 teams: 2.31 PPG (13GP, 30P)
Against rest of division: 1.43 PPG (21GP, 30P)

It's pretty clear he's feasting on Calgary and Ottawa, with a full 50% of his points coming from those games in 38% of the season.

He'd win the Art Ross anyways, but his numbers are boosted FAR more this year from the bottom teams than last year, where he actually did better against teams outside of the bottom 9.

And yet he still had 57 points in 34 games last season recovering from a leg injury that he was supposed to get surgery for and sit out the entire season.

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

Nothing about this year points to an anomaly.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I looked into this a bit this morning after a STRONG response from Oilers fans at the suggestion that repetition could impact everyone's numbers.

If we extrapolate the bottom 2 teams in a group of 7 (28.6% of teams) to a group of 31, we're left with 9 teams.

Last season:
Against bottom 9 teams: 1.35 PPG (20GP, 27P)
Against rest of league: 1.59 PPG (44GP, 70P)

This season:
Against bottom 2 teams: 2.31 PPG (13GP, 30P)
Against rest of division: 1.43 PPG (21GP, 30P)

It's pretty clear he's feasting on Calgary and Ottawa, with a full 50% of his points coming from those games in 38% of the season.

He'd win the Art Ross anyways, but his numbers are boosted FAR more this year from the bottom teams than last year, where he actually did better against teams outside of the bottom 9.

Last year he had 57 points in 34 games.

Explain that.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

North division defense and goalies are much weaker compared to other teams in the league IMO

McDavid probably still wins Art Ross but doesn't have as inflated stats as he does in the North Division. This includes Auston Matthews' goal scoring pace btw and I am a Leafs fan

Were his stats thru 34 last year inflated too?

He had 57 points in 34.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Not really.

North division: 3.03 GAA
Central division: 2.93 GAA
West division: 2.87 GAA
East division: 2.88 GAA

So while the North is the highest scoring division, its very marginal.

Let's say McDavid played in the central, instead of the North, like Kane. There is a .1 decrease in scoring, over 34 games, is a 3.4 decrease in goals scored per team. McDavid factors into 51.7% of his teams, offense, so McDavid would statistically expect a 1.76 point decrease in offense. I'll be generous and round up, so with 2 points knocked off his total, McDavid still dominates with 58 points. If he was moved to the East/West he'd lose 2.6 points off his total, so again I'll be generous to you and say, he'd be at 57 points. Anyway it is cut he still has a strangle hold on the Art Ross.

I'd get being suspicious of McDavid's insane year if he wasn't doing very similar results the past year 34 games in where he had 57 points compared to his 60 now. Also considering he is still young at 24, it's definitely not out of the realm of imagination that he improved.
Matthews never had inflated goalscoring imo, he's a great goalscorer who got extremely hot like they sometimes do, now he's cooled off and his numbers are looking less impressive and more realistic.

The whole north inflates stats narrative is as strong as paper mache and people seem to love it. McDavid would have similar stats, if not better stats, in any division with the way he's playing this year. Look at his numbers versus the metro division teams, they're better than his offensive production against the pacific or Canadian teams.

Maybe the GAA in north is higher because it has the best 2 offensive players playing in it

 

[McVespa99]

He'd still win the Art Ross, but feasting on teams like Ottawa helps too

First there is only 1 team like Ottawa. Not teams. Second Ottawa is not nearly as bad as people on here make them out to be. They are close to .500 aganst every team not named Oilers...