Hunter Shinkaruk - Part II

[tantalum]

I realize they're different ages, different players. I just want to see this kind of production over a much larger stretch of games.

Of course. I think that goes without saying really. My point was more along the lines of:

1) perhaps his bad stats are being a little overstated. He is in line with several other AHL rookies right now. The AHL isn't exactly an easy league for rookies to excel in despite what is said. Blue chip guys sure, they should be excelling and getting promoted in year one or at the lastest through year 2. Hunter isn't a blue chip guy. He's going to need more than a season to develop.

2) there certainly have been inconsistencies in his game but perhaps the focus needs to not be on the numbers but the underlying signficant improvement he is showing. And that isn't just improvement in the G and A columns but improvement of his game that his coaching staff acknowledges.

People write guys off as busts far too early. Apparently like 40 games into a pro career.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

People write guys off as busts far too early. Apparently like 40 games into a pro career.

More like, people get far too defensive of prospects on here. Name one person who "wrote him off as a bust."

We said he would need to pick things up by the end of the season. He has. That's great. We're all happy.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Seems to be developing pretty much as expected from a later first rounder.
He was always going to be a bit of a longer term prospect.
What I love about him is his compete level and his willingness to go to those dirty areas.
Hopefully he keeps this up next year and gets a few games with the Canucks.

 

[tantalum]

More like, people get far too defensive of prospects on here. Name one person who "wrote him off as a bust."

We said he would need to pick things up by the end of the season. He has. That's great. We're all happy.

Plenty of people on various boards have called him or essentially called him a bust and moved on from him. Throwing him into deals etc. He's a first year pro who has had some struggles but it doesn't mean he won't be an NHL player. Odds are that he probably won't be if you want me to be honest.

I'm not defensive about prospects. I am quite tired of the continual sky is falling attitude and need to create some sort of controversy attitude the fanbase (and media) seems to have. I was also responding to a post that wasn't happy with a 20 game sample but was expecting a 0.7 to 0.8 PPG large game sample for his rookie season in the AHL. A pace that really shouldn't be expected or forced upon the kid. A pace only a handful of rookies are meeting (and many of them are older).

 

[MS]

More like, people get far too defensive of prospects on here. Name one person who "wrote him off as a bust."

We said he would need to pick things up by the end of the season. He has. That's great. We're all happy.

No kidding. He's doing what he needed to do to remain a viable prospect, albeit a little later than would have been ideal.

But by the same token, this little streak doesn't mean he's suddenly 'made it', either, just as Jensen's last year didn't.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

I'm not defensive about prospects. I am quite tired of the continual sky is falling attitude and need to create some sort of controversy attitude the fanbase (and media) seems to have. I was also responding to a post that wasn't happy with a 20 game sample but was expecting a 0.7 to 0.8 PPG large game sample for his rookie season in the AHL. A pace that really shouldn't be expected or forced upon the kid. A pace only a handful of rookies are meeting (and many of them are older).

Based on what? Give me three examples where this "sky is falling attitude" you claim exists ended up not being justified with our prospects.

Your post is a copy of what people repeated about Jensen ad nauseum. As usual we didn't give up quickly enough and now we'll get nothing of value from him.

 

[MS]

Plenty of people on various boards have called him or essentially called him a bust and moved on from him. Throwing him into deals etc. He's a first year pro who has had some struggles but it doesn't mean he won't be an NHL player. Odds are that he probably won't be if you want me to be honest.

I'm not defensive about prospects. I am quite tired of the continual sky is falling attitude and need to create some sort of controversy attitude the fanbase (and media) seems to have. I was also responding to a post that wasn't happy with a 20 game sample but was expecting a 0.7 to 0.8 PPG large game sample for his rookie season in the AHL. A pace that really shouldn't be expected or forced upon the kid. A pace only a handful of rookies are meeting (and many of them are older).

There isn't a 'sky is falling attitude'. It's just reality.

The moment Shinkaruk is in a box of 'forward prospect who spent a full season in the AHL', his odds of getting out of that box to became an NHL player with value are maybe 30%.

If he spends another full season in the AHL next year, it's maybe 10%.

Guys who make the NHL - ESPECIALLY skill forwards - barely touch the AHL in general.

And NOBODY called him a bust. People just said he wasn't tracking well and if he doesn't have a serious turnaround he'd be heading into bust territory pretty quickly. Which was true.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

There isn't a 'sky is falling attitude'. It's just reality.

The moment Shinkaruk is in a box of 'forward prospect who spent a full season in the AHL', his odds of getting out of that box to became an NHL player with value are maybe 30%.

If he spends another full season in the AHL next year, it's maybe 10%.

Guys who make the NHL - ESPECIALLY skill forwards - barely touch the AHL in general.

And NOBODY called him a bust. People just said he wasn't tracking well and if he doesn't have a serious turnaround he'd be heading into bust territory pretty quickly. Which was true.

Detroit's had lots of prospects spend significant time in the AHL.
Baertschi has as well.
While it might be ideal to move quickly from junior to the NHL, no two prospects develop the same. Some just take longer.

 

[Ryp37]

Detroit's had lots of prospects spend significant time in the AHL.
Baertschi has as well.
While it might be ideal to move quickly from junior to the NHL, no two prospects develop the same. Some just take longer.

And the ones who stayed longer lit the league up while doing so

 

[MS]

Detroit's had lots of prospects spend significant time in the AHL.
Baertschi has as well.
While it might be ideal to move quickly from junior to the NHL, no two prospects develop the same. Some just take longer.

Detroit has had a few, but a guy like Nyquist dominated the AHL immediately as a rookie and would have been in the NHL far quicker on any other team. It wasn't like he was doing a slow boil down there.

Baertschi hasn't proven anything yet. He may be an exception, he may not.

 

[FroshaugFan2]

Seems to be developing pretty much as expected from a later first rounder.
He was always going to be a bit of a longer term prospect.
What I love about him is his compete level and his willingness to go to those dirty areas.
Hopefully he keeps this up next year and gets a few games with the Canucks.

I was curious about what should be expected by a late first round forward (picked 20th-30th) playing his 20 year old season in the AHL. Expecting 0.7 PPG seemed a little high to me, so I looked at the 2003 - 2013 drafts and split the players into two groups, above and below 0.5 PPG. I only looked at players with 20+ games played that season.

Under .5 PPG

Lukas Kaspar
Kris Chucko
Kenndal McArdle
Nic Bergfors
Greg Nemisz
Philippe Paradis
Jordan Schroeder
Emerson Etem
Nicklas Jensen
Zack Phillips
Vladislav Namestnikov
Phillip Danault
Tyler Biggs
Stefan Matteau
Brendan Gaunce
Marko Dano
Hunter Shinkaruk

Over .5 PPG

MA Pouliot
Ryan Kesler
Cory Perry
Robbie Schremp
Steve Downie
Nick Foligno
Claude Giroux
Tyler Ennis
Carter Ashton
Kyle Palmieri
Jordan Caron
Charlie Coyle
Quinton Howden
Rickard Rakell
Matt Puempel
Tanner Pearson
Henrik Samuelsson
Scott Laughton
Ryan Hartman
Emile Poirier
Anthony Mantha

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I was curious about what should be expected by a late first round forward playing his 20 year old season in the AHL. Expecting 0.7 PPG seemed a little high to me, so I looked at the 2003 - 2013 drafts and split the players into two groups, above and below 0.5 PPG. I only looked at players with 20+ games played that season.

Under .5 PPG

Lukas Kaspar
Kris Chucko
Kenndal McArdle
Nic Bergfors
Greg Nemisz
Philippe Paradis
Jordan Schroeder
Emerson Etem
Nicklas Jensen
Zack Phillips
Vladislav Namestnikov
Phillip Danault
Tyler Biggs
Stefan Matteau
Brendan Gaunce
Marko Dano
Hunter Shinkaruk

Over .5 PPG

MA Pouliot
Ryan Kesler
Cory Perry
Robbie Schremp
Steve Downie
Nick Foligno
Claude Giroux
Tyler Ennis
Carter Ashton
Kyle Palmieri
Jordan Caron
Charlie Coyle
Quinton Howden
Rickard Rakell
Matt Puempel
Tanner Pearson
Henrik Samuelsson
Scott Laughton
Ryan Hartman
Emile Poirier
Anthony Mantha

Thanks for doing that. Those numbers are pretty scary. Not a lot of potential in that first group.
You have to hope that Shinkaruk's early part of the season was due in part to his injury.
That's the only narrative that gives much hope as his play has picked up recently.

 

[Baby Pettersson]

Many said his surgery would slow his development down at the beginning of the year. I remember seeing many posters say will let it slide as long as we see improvement and that he starts putting up numbers at the end of the year. So far he is doing just that.

 

[FroshaugFan2]

Thanks for doing that. Those numbers are pretty scary. Not a lot of potential in that first group.
You have to hope that Shinkaruk's early part of the season was due in part to his injury.
That's the only narrative that gives much hope as his play has picked up recently.

Also a little scary is how many Canucks are on the under list. Going back to 1992 you can add Nathan Smith and Libor Polasek to the under list, and no one to the over.

 

[MS]

I was curious about what should be expected by a late first round forward (picked 20th-30th) playing his 20 year old season in the AHL. Expecting 0.7 PPG seemed a little high to me, so I looked at the 2003 - 2013 drafts and split the players into two groups, above and below 0.5 PPG. I only looked at players with 20+ games played that season.

Under .5 PPG

Lukas Kaspar
Kris Chucko
Kenndal McArdle
Nic Bergfors
Greg Nemisz
Philippe Paradis
Jordan Schroeder
Emerson Etem
Nicklas Jensen
Zack Phillips
Vladislav Namestnikov
Phillip Danault
Tyler Biggs
Stefan Matteau
Brendan Gaunce
Marko Dano
Hunter Shinkaruk

Over .5 PPG

MA Pouliot
Ryan Kesler
Cory Perry
Robbie Schremp
Steve Downie
Nick Foligno
Claude Giroux
Tyler Ennis
Carter Ashton
Kyle Palmieri
Jordan Caron
Charlie Coyle
Quinton Howden
Rickard Rakell
Matt Puempel
Tanner Pearson
Henrik Samuelsson
Scott Laughton
Ryan Hartman
Emile Poirier
Anthony Mantha

Thanks for that. Backs up what I've been saying almost exactly.

If you removed guys who played less than 40 games in the AHL (ie. guys who blew through that league and were in the NHL for half of their 20 y/o season) then Perry, Foligno, Giroux, Downie, and Coyle disappear from the 2nd list and even it doesn't look very good, either. And Kesler is only there because of the lockout.

Teams love fast-tracking #1 picks. If guys linger in the AHL it's a terrible sign.

 

[overtherainbow]

I was curious about what should be expected by a late first round forward (picked 20th-30th) playing his 20 year old season in the AHL. Expecting 0.7 PPG seemed a little high to me, so I looked at the 2003 - 2013 drafts and split the players into two groups, above and below 0.5 PPG. I only looked at players with 20+ games played that season.

Under .5 PPG

Lukas Kaspar
Kris Chucko
Kenndal McArdle
Nic Bergfors
Greg Nemisz
Philippe Paradis
Jordan Schroeder
Emerson Etem
Nicklas Jensen
Zack Phillips
Vladislav Namestnikov
Phillip Danault
Tyler Biggs
Stefan Matteau
Brendan Gaunce
Marko Dano
Hunter Shinkaruk

Over .5 PPG

MA Pouliot
Ryan Kesler
Cory Perry
Robbie Schremp
Steve Downie
Nick Foligno
Claude Giroux
Tyler Ennis
Carter Ashton
Kyle Palmieri
Jordan Caron
Charlie Coyle
Quinton Howden
Rickard Rakell
Matt Puempel
Tanner Pearson
Henrik Samuelsson
Scott Laughton
Ryan Hartman
Emile Poirier
Anthony Mantha

Good Post. It is also important to note that many posters in our Utica thread has also commented on the play of Shinkaruk. Being a Canuck fan isn't mutually exclusive with making objective observations and judgments about Canuck prospects.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Also a little scary is how many Canucks are on the under list. Going back to 1992 you can add Nathan Smith and Libor Polasek to the under list, and no one to the over.

True. Could also add Pat White except he was never even good enough to make the AHL. Just brutal drafting.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Detroit has had a few, but a guy like Nyquist dominated the AHL immediately as a rookie and would have been in the NHL far quicker on any other team. It wasn't like he was doing a slow boil down there.

Baertschi hasn't proven anything yet. He may be an exception, he may not.

Did Nyquist suffer a serious hip injury like Shinkaruk did?

 

[Pip]

Woah Shinkaruk was injured? I had no idea!

 

[y2kcanucks]

Woah Shinkaruk was injured? I had no idea!

A lot of people seemingly don't, or can't comprehend what that means, based on their responses.

 

[Pip]

A lot of people seemingly don't, or can't comprehend what that means, based on their responses.

Nope. Shinkaruk was given nearly a half season of no criticism whatsoever before anyone expressed any concern over him. That was because of his injury.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Nope. Shinkaruk was given nearly a half season of no criticism whatsoever before anyone expressed any concern over him. That was because of his injury.

And he finished the season absolutely on fire. Yet you still have people calling him a bust because "he's played in the AHL and if he plays there next year he's even less likely to make the NHL."

Apparently playing in the AHL as a 20/21 year old means you're a bust.

 

[Pip]

And he finished the season absolutely on fire. Yet you still have people calling him a bust because "he's played in the AHL and if he plays there next year he's even less likely to make the NHL."

Apparently playing in the AHL as a 20/21 year old means you're a bust.

Nobody is calling him a bust, please stop spreading lies.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Nobody is calling him a bust, please stop spreading lies.

Maybe you should read up a few posts on this same page.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

And he finished the season absolutely on fire. Yet you still have people calling him a bust because "he's played in the AHL and if he plays there next year he's even less likely to make the NHL."

Apparently playing in the AHL as a 20/21 year old means you're a bust.

Agreed. I don't think we can just pretend the injury never happened. Do you know what his stats were for the second half?