Hunter Shinkaruk - Part II

[CanaFan]

How many players who slowly progress in those league become top line players in this league?

While I'm not as invested in this discussion as some of you are, I'm willing to bet it's very low.

We drafted Shinkaruk in hopes that he's one of those select few to make a huge impact. We drafted Virtanen in hopes that he's one of those select few to make a huge impact.

If we wanted safer players we'd take another Gaunce (who I'm a huge fan of).

The fact of the matter is - if we're hoping to draft an elite top liner, they need to show promise very quickly. This is strictly off of percentages based on history.

I'm not overly invested in this debate either - I'm generally more patient with prospects than most - but I think it's worth noting that there is a HUGE gap between an "elite top liner" and a "safe player". You can't reduce every prospect to either an 80 pt star or a 35 pt foot soldier. I personally don't expect any of our current prospects to be the former, and that includes Horvat, Virtanen, Shinkaruk, Baertschi, etc. Reality is unless you have a top 3-5 pick you are almost never going to have this type of prospect. Fortunately there are still dozens of outcomes for these kids below an elite first liner that could still be immensely useful for this club. As a late 1st rounder, Shink would be a huge win if he became a semi-regular 25 goal / 50 point scoring winger. I'm not even sure he'll be that however he certainly doesn't have to blow through the AHL like Corey Perry or Ryan Getzlaf in order to have that upside. He can certainly spend this year as an adjustment/recovery year and if he put's in another good season next year where he gets stronger, faster, and learns how to play a pro-game... well then his upside will be looking very good.

TL;DR People need to allow for more outcomes than just superstar or grinder when evaluating these kids' progress.

 

[shortshorts]

I'm not overly invested in this debate either - I'm generally more patient with prospects than most - but I think it's worth noting that there is a HUGE gap between an "elite top liner" and a "safe player". You can't reduce every prospect to either an 80 pt star or a 35 pt foot soldier. I personally don't expect any of our current prospects to be the former, and that includes Horvat, Virtanen, Shinkaruk, Baertschi, etc. Reality is unless you have a top 3-5 pick you are almost never going to have this type of prospect. Fortunately there are still dozens of outcomes for these kids below an elite first liner that could still be immensely useful for this club. As a late 1st rounder, Shink would be a huge win if he became a semi-regular 25 goal / 50 point scoring winger. I'm not even sure he'll be that however he certainly doesn't have to blow through the AHL like Corey Perry or Ryan Getzlaf in order to have that upside. He can certainly spend this year as an adjustment/recovery year and if he put's in another good season next year where he gets stronger, faster, and learns how to play a pro-game... well then his upside will be looking very good.

TL;DR People need to allow for more outcomes than just superstar or grinder when evaluating these kids' progress.

I certainly agree with your post.

However, reading these boards, people think he has top line status. Various posters are saying his chances of becoming this incredible top line player are much lower after this season, which I also agree with.

This is where the debate is lacking continuity.

The longer Shinkaruk stays in the AHL the closer he is to a Baertschi (whom I consider a 2nd line potential prospect) than he is this 1st line potential prospect people peg him at.

 

[Jimson Hogarth*]

I love posters who months ago were like "if Shinkaruk doesn't score at this historic point clip he's a bust" are now dismayed that like every ****ing rookie in the AHL scored under that historic point clip.

 

[y2kcanucks]

I'm not pulling numbers out of my ass. I've looked at draft trends and percentages for years.

I'm well aware of various paths to the NHL. And well aware that guys who linger in the AHL (especially forwards, and especially #1 picks) are longshots. If you disagree, provide some evidence. Again, go back and look at the list someone else posted in post #886 of this thread.

Yes you are.

Here are some players who played more than 1 year in the AHL and have had success in the NHL:

Tyler Johnson
Ondrej Palat
Gustav Nyquist
Valteri Filppula (one year in the AHL but a couple years in the Finnish league after being drafted)
Tomas Tatar
David Desharnais
Tomas Plekanec
Mark Stone
Mike Hoffman
Jason Pominville
Mikko Koivu spent a few years in Finland and then a year in the AHL.
Jiri Hudler spent time in the Czech league, had a brief 12 game stint in the NHL, followed by 3 full years in the AHL

but I'm sure you'll find some way to throw out most of the guys from this list like you always do. I await the "Hudler et al don't count because they have dark hair and Shinkaruk has light hair."

 

[MS]

I certainly agree with your post.

However, reading these boards, people think he has top line status. Various posters are saying his chances of becoming this incredible top line player are much lower after this season, which I also agree with.

This is where the debate is lacking continuity.

The longer Shinkaruk stays in the AHL the closer he is to a Baertschi (whom I consider a 2nd line potential prospect) than he is this 1st line potential prospect people peg him at.

For the record, I've never really thought of him as a likely elite player. Always figured he projected as a Jeff Skinner-lite 25 goal, 45-50 point type as a reasonable upside. And that hasn't changed much. Just the odds of him reaching that level have after two poor development seasons (whether caused by injury or poor play).

And I do think he still has a solid chance of reaching that level. It's just that my level of 'solid' is different from others.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Cool. You've had a huge crush on this player since before he was drafted so I'm not going to argue this any further. Improving relative to expectations that were tempered due to poor performance isn't what I would call a developmental success, but agree to disagree.

Either way, hopefully Shinkaruk has stellar playoff run and can have a developmental season next year that puts no question into his stock as a prospect.

Coming into a season as one of the youngest players in the league, relying on old WHL tricks that used to work, and progressing to a player who now understands how to play the pro game, doesn't rely on those tricks, and begins producing at the pro level is exactly what I would call development. What would you call it?

Me liking Shinkaruk as a prospect even before we drafted him doesn't really mean much. He still has had a solid developmental year whether you like it or not.

 

[y2kcanucks]

For the record, I've never really thought of him as a likely elite player. Always figured he projected as a Jeff Skinner-lite 25 goal, 45-50 point type as a reasonable upside. And that hasn't changed much. Just the odds of him reaching that level have after two poor development seasons (whether caused by injury or poor play).

And I do think he still has a solid chance of reaching that level. It's just that my level of 'solid' is different from others.

Why do you keep posting that crap? It's wrong. Unless you're just stat watching, this year was a good development year for Shinkaruk. One of your complaints against him in the pre-season was that he doesn't shoot the puck enough. Well he ranks 3rd on the Comets in shots on goal. He's also learned how to become a more complete player. He's learned how to play the pro game and to stop relying on the moves that he could get away with in junior hockey. He's gotten a lot stronger. His skating has gotten better. He's now starting to produce and is tied for 2nd on the team in goals. How can that be classified as a poor development year?

 

[canuck4life16]

20 goals for hunter would be great.....he has 16 currently

 

[MS]

Yes you are.

Here are some players who played more than 1 year in the AHL and have had success in the NHL:

Tyler Johnson
Ondrej Palat
Gustav Nyquist
Valteri Filppula (one year in the AHL but a couple years in the Finnish league after being drafted)
Tomas Tatar
David Desharnais
Tomas Plekanec
Mark Stone
Mike Hoffman
Jason Pominville
Mikko Koivu spent a few years in Finland and then a year in the AHL.
Jiri Hudler spent time in the Czech league, had a brief 12 game stint in the NHL, followed by 3 full years in the AHL

but I'm sure you'll find some way to throw out most of the guys from this list like you always do. I await the "Hudler et al don't count because they have dark hair and Shinkaruk has light hair."

... and for those 10 guys I could list 100 high picks that didn't make it after 2 years in the AHL. My spitballing 10% number does imply that there are guys that make it, just that it's not a likely outcome. And it isn't.

Also note that most of the guys you list are mid-late round picks who don't get the initial opportunity and fast-tracking that #1 picks do.

No response to the initial 50% success rate of late #1 picks?

 

[MS]

Why do you keep posting that crap? It's wrong. Unless you're just stat watching, this year was a good development year for Shinkaruk. One of your complaints against him in the pre-season was that he doesn't shoot the puck enough. Well he ranks 3rd on the Comets in shots on goal. He's also learned how to become a more complete player. He's learned how to play the pro game and to stop relying on the moves that he could get away with in junior hockey. He's gotten a lot stronger. His skating has gotten better. He's now starting to produce and is tied for 2nd on the team in goals. How can that be classified as a poor development year?

It was a year when, if he was tracking well, he should have been excelling in the AHL and pushing for NHL games. Like Poirier and Burakovsky.

If his poor performance through the first 70 games of the season was because of his injury, fine. But a season of injury-affected poor play is not a good development year.

If it wasn't due to his injury, then he's just way behind schedule.

All of those things you say sound nice. But again, the vast majority of guys that make it don't take 70 games to figure out what works in the AHL. Their skills translate almost immediately moving up levels.

 

[y2kcanucks]

... and for those 10 guys I could list 100 high picks that didn't make it after 2 years in the AHL. My spitballing 10% number does imply that there are guys that make it, just that it's not a likely outcome. And it isn't.

Also note that most of the guys you list are mid-late round picks who don't get the initial opportunity and fast-tracking that #1 picks do.

No response to the initial 50% success rate of late #1 picks?

And how was Shinkaruk given a fast-tracking opportunity when he came into camp as an 18 year old for a team that went with a more veteran lineup when he was made the final cut from the team? He then proceeded to get injured, and everyone had projected him to be in the AHL despite him having a productive pre-season once again? How is that considered being given a fast-tracking opportunity? Now you're just making things up and grasping at straws.

 

[y2kcanucks]

It was a year when, if he was tracking well, he should have been excelling in the AHL and pushing for NHL games. Like Poirier and Burakovsky.

If his poor performance through the first 70 games of the season was because of his injury, fine. But a season of injury-affected poor play is not a good development year.

If it wasn't due to his injury, then he's just way behind schedule.

All of those things you say sound nice. But again, the vast majority of guys that make it don't take 70 games to figure out what works in the AHL. Their skills translate almost immediately moving up levels.

Who cares what "the vast majority of guys" do? This is Hunter Shinkaruk. This isn't a statistical analysis of a random sample of stats. This is an analysis of ONE specific hockey player. One hockey player who suffered a serious injury last season which CLEARLY had a negative effect on his play to start this season. From those who have watched him, he started off this season weak on his skates and didn't really have much of a speed burst. That has since come back to him in recent games and he's been a much better player because of it. In addition, his defensive game is improving, and he's learned how to play the pro game.

Nice things like you say, great. Isn't that what development is though? So again, how can you call it a poor development year, when, by the very definition of development, Hunter's year has actually quite successful?

 

[CanaFan]

I certainly agree with your post.

However, reading these boards, people think he has top line status. Various posters are saying his chances of becoming this incredible top line player are much lower after this season, which I also agree with.

This is where the debate is lacking continuity.

The longer Shinkaruk stays in the AHL the closer he is to a Baertschi (whom I consider a 2nd line potential prospect) than he is this 1st line potential prospect people peg him at.

Good post. I definitely was willing to give Hunter a mulligan on the year due to the combined recovery as well as the adjustment to pro hockey, but I also have never viewed him as an 'elite' prospect and think there are some unrealistic expectations of people are viewing him as that type of prospect. And considering we got him at 24, there is no reason to 'expect' that type of outcome. Simply making the NHL as a useful top 6 player would be a huge win for a player drafted in that spot. I'm excited that he has recently found his game (and/or finally recovered his skating) and look forward to what he can do in playoffs and next year at camp, but he's not a guaranteed NHLer. Never has been and still don't believe he is. But I'm certainly more optimistic than I was a month ago.

 

[MS]

Who cares what "the vast majority of guys" do? This is Hunter Shinkaruk. This isn't a statistical analysis of a random sample of stats. This is an analysis of ONE specific hockey player. One hockey player who suffered a serious injury last season which CLEARLY had a negative effect on his play to start this season. From those who have watched him, he started off this season weak on his skates and didn't really have much of a speed burst. That has since come back to him in recent games and he's been a much better player because of it. In addition, his defensive game is improving, and he's learned how to play the pro game.

Nice things like you say, great. Isn't that what development is though? So again, how can you call it a poor development year, when, by the very definition of development, Hunter's year has actually quite successful?

Spending almost an entire year struggling because your skills have been damaged by an injury, and trying to get those skills back to where they were is not a successful development season.

A successful development season is showing improvement off previous levels of play, dominance at the level you're playing at, and pushing for NHL games.

If Jared McCann rips his knee up tomorrow and then spends all of 15-16 struggling to get his explosiveness back and find this season's level of play, it hasn't been a 'successful development year'.

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

Your time is worth more than wasting it arguing with Y2K.

In this instance Y2K is making a lot of sense.

There is a lot of talk about what the "Vast majority of players" have done but Shinkaruk's in a different situation that most if not all of them. He's gone through a major surgery that ended his final Jr year real early.

I understand looking at others to compare development to see where a prospect is in the large perspective, but when the prospect has something within his situation that drastically alters development, comparing him to others who haven't gone though the same isn't going to give a clear/accurate picture of where he is development wise.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Spending almost an entire year struggling because your skills have been damaged by an injury, and trying to get those skills back to where they were is not a successful development season.

A successful development season is showing improvement off previous levels of play, dominance at the level you're playing at, and pushing for NHL games.

If Jared McCann rips his knee up tomorrow and then spends all of 15-16 struggling to get his explosiveness back and find this season's level of play, it hasn't been a 'successful development year'.

Let me define "development" so we are all on the same page:

Development

noun
1.
the act or process of developing; growth; progress:

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/development

Now with that being said, let's take a look at what his first pro coach has said about him this year:

“I really like the way he’s playing, he’s progressing,” said Green. “A lot of young guys, they try to base how they’re playing on goals and assists. But I think Hunter has done a good job in not getting caught up in that. It is hard for a guy who’s been a natural scorer and has scored goals all his life. Even in the last five or 10 games, he’s taken a step. I’m hoping it’ll translate into some more points, just for him personally so he gets rewarded. I have noticed I’m playing him more, and that’s just him getting used to the league.”

Green said one of the common challenges of adjusting to the AHL from junior — and one that isn’t lost on Shinkaruk — is dealing with the physical one-on-one play. Though Shinkaruk put on some upper body muscle in the gym while recuperating from hip surgery last year, he still needs to get stronger.

“The AHL level has a lot more one-on-one puck battles in all areas of the rink,” said Green. “It’s not as clean a game (as the NHL). For a young guy that can be harder. He’s learning now, where he’s coming out of those battles with the puck.

http://www.theprovince.com/sports/C...karuk+progress+stat+sheet/10755091/story.html

and from Jim Benning in the same article:

“Hunter is adjusting to playing against men this year,” said Benning. “He’s finding his way and he’s working on his game off the ice, to get stronger.”

And a more recent article:

The speedy Shinkaruk, 20, was a first-round draft choice of the Vancouver Canucks in 2013. He has looked the part much of his first pro season, but goals were coming infrequently until lately. After his recent burst, he has 12, plus 12 assists.
"I think he's gotten stronger as the season progressed," Green said. "And he's learning to play in the hard areas of the ice."

...

“I think I’m just gaining more confidence,” he said. “We have a great team here. They’re helping me learn the pro game.”

http://www.uticaod.com/article/20150328/NEWS/150329263/10889/SPORTS

By all accounts it has been a successful year of development for Hunter Shinkaruk. He had a slow start due to a bad injury last year. This was compounded by him needing to learn how to become a pro and play the pro game. Not every player develops at the same rate, and Shinkaruk's development was delayed a bit due to the injury, but by all accounts he was tracking quite well. The numbers may not have been there, so the stat watchers were banging their drums, but those who have watched him (some on this board who have made several positive observations about him), his own coach, and NHL GM have commented on how he has progressed throughout the year. Recently the numbers have caught up to his progress and he's looking like a very good prospect once again.

How you can call this a poor development year I have no idea, but hopefully this will help you understand why this has actually been a good development year for him.

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

Spending almost an entire year struggling because your skills have been damaged by an injury, and trying to get those skills back to where they were is not a successful development season.

A successful development season is showing improvement off previous levels of play, dominance at the level you're playing at, and pushing for NHL games.

If Jared McCann rips his knee up tomorrow and then spends all of 15-16 struggling to get his explosiveness back and find this season's level of play, it hasn't been a 'successful development year'.

Lets look at it this way.

Going into the season you should've expected a 3 step season for Shinkaruk.

1. Getting the confidence back in making the physical body movements that are needed at game speed. To be confident that his body can actually do what he wants it to.

2. Catching up to the speed of the AHL game, and learning the style. Learning what he can and can't do at this level. Even if he had tried it before when he was in Part 1, he'll still want to try something when he's fully confident in his abilities.

3. Adapting to the Pro level game and using what was learned in part 2 to start producing points at a rate that is/will be expected of him.

If you look at the last little bit it definitely looks like Hunter is in the 3rd step now. Had he not been injured you'd really only have a 2 step season to look at.

From what I'm reading in your posts it sounds like you still think he's in the early part of step 2. Which from the sounds of the reports from people who have watched him more closely is false.

 

[vanuck]

I certainly agree with your post.

However, reading these boards, people think he has top line status. Various posters are saying his chances of becoming this incredible top line player are much lower after this season, which I also agree with.

This is where the debate is lacking continuity.

The longer Shinkaruk stays in the AHL the closer he is to a Baertschi (whom I consider a 2nd line potential prospect) than he is this 1st line potential prospect people peg him at.

I don't remember, but was he ever pegged as being a 1st line potential prospect the same way people saw Horvat as realistically becoming a 2nd line C? His production in the WHL would seem to suggest it. Agree with the point about Baertschi and his odds too.

--------

Shinkaruk has 12 points (9 goals) in his last 13 AHL games. This may or may not be regression of luck but according to all reports he's also been getting better at generating chances for a few months now so hopefully there continues to be an upward trend in his play. His shot rate has jumped over that span too - 2.1 vs 2.5 per).

Hoping to see his strong play continue into the playoffs because ideally you'd like to see more and more good signs going into next season.

 

[WTG]

Shinkaruk definitely has 1st line potential.

He's got all the tools to become that skilled small forward. Kane type player.

 

[Askel]

Yes you are.

Here are some players who played more than 1 year in the AHL and have had success in the NHL:

Tyler Johnson
Ondrej Palat
Gustav Nyquist
Valteri Filppula (one year in the AHL but a couple years in the Finnish league after being drafted)
Tomas Tatar
David Desharnais
Tomas Plekanec
Mark Stone
Mike Hoffman
Jason Pominville
Mikko Koivu spent a few years in Finland and then a year in the AHL.
Jiri Hudler spent time in the Czech league, had a brief 12 game stint in the NHL, followed by 3 full years in the AHL

but I'm sure you'll find some way to throw out most of the guys from this list like you always do. I await the "Hudler et al don't count because they have dark hair and Shinkaruk has light hair."

Tyler Johnson, Free agent signing 2011, Spent 2 year in the AHL 2011/2012-2012/2013, was called up in 2012/2013 for the first time.

Ondrej Palat, 7th rounder 2011,Spent 2 year in the AHL, Spent 2 year in the AHL 2011/2012-2012/2013, was called up in 2012/2013 for the first time.

Gustav Nyquist, 4th rounder 2008 , Spent 2 years in the AHL 2011/2012-2012/13 (2013/2014 he played 15 games in the AHL), was called up in 2011/2012 for the first time.

Valteri Filppula 3 rounder 95th overall 2002, spent one year in the AHL 2005/2006, called up for the first time in 2005/2006

Tomas Tatar 1st rounder 2009, spent 3 years in the AHL, 2009/2010, 2010/2011, 2012/2013, was called up for the first time in 2010/2011, didn't spend anytime in juniors went straight to AHL.

David Desharnais FA signing, spent 2007/2008 in the ECHL and 2008/2009,2009/2010,2010/2011 in the AHL, called up for the first time 2009/2010

Tomas Plekanec 3nd round 2001, spend 2002/2003, 2003/2004 , 2004/2005 (lockout) int the AHL, called up for the first time in 2003/2004

Mark Stone, 6th rounder 2010 spent 2012/2013 and 37 games one 2013/14 in the AHL, called up for the first time in 2012/13

Mike Hoffman ,5th rounde 2009 ,spen 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 in the AHL (2013/14 ended the that year in the NHL), was called up in 2011/2012 for the first time

Jason Pominville ,2nd rounder 2001, spent 2002/03 2003/04 2004/2005 (lockout), and 18 games 2005/06 in the AHL was called up in 2003/2004 for the first time

Mikko Koivu , 1st rounder 6th overall 2001,(3 years after being drafted in FEL) spent 2004/05 in the AHL, made the NHL 2005/06

Jiri Hudler 2nd round 2002 spent 2003/04 , 2004/05 (lockout) 2005/06 in the AHL called up for the first time in 2003/2004

Hunter Skinkaruk drafted first round in 2013, spend 2014/15 int the AHL,

Almost all the guys above got a sniff on the NHL in their second AHL season, hopefully Hunter can do that to,

 

[Red]

Worth noting that some of those players listed were older than Shinkaruk in their first AHL season.

Koivu and Flippula were 21 as AHL rookies. Nyquist was 22 as an AHL rookie.

 

[Pip]

Seems like the vast majority of guys listed there established themselves as top tier scorers in the AHL in their first season.

 

[YogiCanucks]

Shinkaruk definitely has 1st line potential.

He's got all the tools to become that skilled small forward. Kane type player.

Kane is a first overall draft pick who has developed well. Let's not go that far.

There is still a lot we don't know about Hunter. A lot of things will become very clear over the next year. If he does not continue to improve I would be worried about his NHL future, as you could say about almost any prospect not in the show.

 

[WTG]

Kane is a first overall draft pick who has developed well. Let's not go that far.

There is still a lot we don't know about Hunter. A lot of things will become very clear over the next year. If he does not continue to improve I would be worried about his NHL future, as you could say about almost any prospect not in the show.

Hunters second year in juniors he scored 49g and had 91pts in 66gp at 17 years old.

He had more goals than projected top pick Mitch Marner has this year as a seventeen year old. The problem is that shinkaruk regressed the year after and dropped significantly. He was an absolute steal at where we got him.

Then he got injured.

If Shinkaruk reaches his potential he could very well become one of the best in that 2013 draft. Shinkaruk absolutely has 1st line potential.

He won't be Kane though. Kanes a star.

 

[vanuck]

Shinkaruk definitely has 1st line potential.

He's got all the tools to become that skilled small forward. Kane type player.

I thought as much, but couldn't remember what scouting reports and HF posters said at the time.