Hunter Shinkaruk - Part II

[y2kcanucks]

Agreed. I don't think we can just pretend the injury never happened. Do you know what his stats were for the second half?

Not sure about the splits, but he had something like 8 or 9 goals in his last 11 games or so. And more importantly, the coaching staff has noticed and commented on his development. All positive signs.

 

[Pip]

Maybe you should read up a few posts on this same page.

No, if he didn't improve his play in the latter half of the year then he would have a much lower chance of working out. He is starting to come around, even in a small sample size.

What posters wanted was some sign that he was still the highly skilled player that we drafted, if he went the entire year without showing it then that would be incredibly concerning.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

Agreed. I don't think we can just pretend the injury never happened. Do you know what his stats were for the second half?

Literally everyone in the thread went out of their way to say that they were giving him some benefit of the doubt precisely because of the injury. Literally everyone. Not a single person was "pretend[ing] the injury never happened."

You ****ing people and your made-up ********* to try to run down other posters, it is so ****ing annoying.

 

[Red]

Detroit has had a few, but a guy like Nyquist dominated the AHL immediately as a rookie and would have been in the NHL far quicker on any other team. It wasn't like he was doing a slow boil down there.

Baertschi hasn't proven anything yet. He may be an exception, he may not.

Not disagreeing with what you're saying (am happy with Shinkaruk's development at the later part of the year, but still cautious about his season as a whole translating to a top 6 NHLer), but it's an important distinction - Nyquist was PPG in the AHL as a 22 year old rookie (born 89, season was 11-12), Shinkaruk is a 20 year old rookie (born 94, season is 14-15). At these ages, that's a lot of difference in development IMO.

 

[Snatcher Demko]

He said/she said pissing aside, really nice to see the kid get it in gear. Now it will be consistency.

I wouldn't have a problem with him spending another year on the farm either, I think, as long as he doesn't stagnate.

Probabilities aside, it's a case by case basis. The Detroit model seems to have shown that prospects can continue to build good habits assuming you have a good AHL team and that learning environment.

Anyhow, let's see how he fares in the playoffs, and then training camp.

 

[Ryp37]

I was curious about what should be expected by a late first round forward (picked 20th-30th) playing his 20 year old season in the AHL. Expecting 0.7 PPG seemed a little high to me, so I looked at the 2003 - 2013 drafts and split the players into two groups, above and below 0.5 PPG. I only looked at players with 20+ games played that season.

Under .5 PPG

Lukas Kaspar
Kris Chucko
Kenndal McArdle
Nic Bergfors
Greg Nemisz
Philippe Paradis
Jordan Schroeder
Emerson Etem
Nicklas Jensen
Zack Phillips
Vladislav Namestnikov
Phillip Danault
Tyler Biggs
Stefan Matteau
Brendan Gaunce
Marko Dano
Hunter Shinkaruk

Over .5 PPG

MA Pouliot
Ryan Kesler
Cory Perry
Robbie Schremp
Steve Downie
Nick Foligno
Claude Giroux
Tyler Ennis
Carter Ashton
Kyle Palmieri
Jordan Caron
Charlie Coyle
Quinton Howden
Rickard Rakell
Matt Puempel
Tanner Pearson
Henrik Samuelsson
Scott Laughton
Ryan Hartman
Emile Poirier
Anthony Mantha

Yup impact NHL players usually spend under 152 games in the A with at leasta .7 ppg, they will generally make an immediate impact when called up to the NHL with at least a .4 ppg

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Literally everyone in the thread went out of their way to say that they were giving him some benefit of the doubt precisely because of the injury. Literally everyone. Not a single person was "pretend[ing] the injury never happened."

You ****ing people and your made-up ********* to try to run down other posters, it is so ****ing annoying.

Oh, calm down.
I'm not running down any posters.
Simply trying to get a read on what he did in the second half to see his progress.

 

[GetFocht]

I expect him to have a huge season next year in the AHL that will solidify his prospect status.

 

[Peen]

Not sure about the splits, but he had something like 8 or 9 goals in his last 11 games or so. And more importantly, the coaching staff has noticed and commented on his development. All positive signs.

Yeah but are they unique points?

 

[Red]

Not sure about the splits, but he had something like 8 or 9 goals in his last 11 games or so. And more importantly, the coaching staff has noticed and commented on his development. All positive signs.

Small sample size but definitely on a hot streak:

Last 10 games: 11pts (8G 3A) in 10 games (1.1ppg)

Dividing Shinkaruk's season roughly in half so far (3 games to go for the Comets):
13 pts (5G 8A) in first 36 games (0.36ppg)
17 pts (11G 6A) in last 35 games (0.49ppg)

 

[MS]

And he finished the season absolutely on fire. Yet you still have people calling him a bust because "he's played in the AHL and if he plays there next year he's even less likely to make the NHL."

Apparently playing in the AHL as a 20/21 year old means you're a bust.

Again, nobody called him a bust. I can't believe the reading comprehension here.

The longer you spend in the AHL without playing yourself out of that league, the closer you are to being a bust. He needed to turn things around in a hurry. He's started to, which is good. How hard is that to comprehend?

As for the injury, it isn't just 'oh, he'll have a bad year coming back off it and then in 16-17 he'll be as good as if he'd never been hurt!'

Having two crappy development years exponentially lowers his chance of being a good player, even if he was tracking well before the injury. After a similar injury, Kesler was never remotely the same player again.

People want to act like the injury gives him a pass for a poor developmental season, but that it doesn't change his upside or long-term forecast at all. Which just isn't reality.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Small sample size but definitely on a hot streak:

Last 10 games: 11pts (8G 3A) in 10 games (1.1ppg)

Dividing Shinkaruk's season roughly in half so far (3 games to go for the Comets):
13 pts (5G 8A) in first 36 games (0.36ppg)
17 pts (11G 6A) in last 35 games (0.49ppg)

Interesting. For the second half it looks like he's pretty much on the dividing line for players above and below the .5 points per game.
It will be interesting to see if he keeps the recent production up during what hopefully will be a long playoff run. That would certainly give a much larger sample size and more reason to think that the current production is more than a hot streak.

 

[Bad Goalie]

This is really nice to see. He's starting to produce offence, while being responsible on the d side of the puck. That's a fast learner. I bet he's not thinking about d, and just playing the right way now, so his natural skills are coming out. It sounds like we have another player!

Does he have any bite to his game?

He doesn't play at being a tough guy, but he plays hard, Gets into the corners, digs hard in board scrums, and goes to the dirty areas. In doing all of this he has a tendency to take a bit of a beating. He isn't big. He gets knocked around and often to the ice, but he is never any worse for the wear and goes back at again.

This aside, in the first half of the season he was kissing the glass every shift. He was trying to blow past D-men who took the opportunity to paste him to the boards. He carried the puck until he ran out of real estate and WHAM back to the glass or the open ice (down on the ice). He has learned to avoid being a hitting dummy. Now he plays the game hard and delivers and receives checks planning for the contact and comes out of it lot cleaner.

He is not a floater trying to stay away from contact like many smaller guys with a scoring touch.

Hope this is what you meant by any bite to his game.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Small sample size but definitely on a hot streak:

Last 10 games: 11pts (8G 3A) in 10 games (1.1ppg)

Dividing Shinkaruk's season roughly in half so far (3 games to go for the Comets):
13 pts (5G 8A) in first 36 games (0.36ppg)
17 pts (11G 6A) in last 35 games (0.49ppg)

Not bad. It looks like he's finally "got it" and should continue to produce.

If he regresses next year there will definitely be cause for concern. But if he continues to play at a 0.75PPG+ pace then I will have full confidence that he will be a player for us in the future.

 

[arttk]

He doesn't play at being a tough guy, but he plays hard, Gets into the corners, digs hard in board scrums, and goes to the dirty areas. In doing all of this he has a tendency to take a bit of a beating. He isn't big. He gets knocked around and often to the ice, but he is never any worse for the wear and goes back at again.

This aside, in the first half of the season he was kissing the glass every shift. He was trying to blow past D-men who took the opportunity to paste him to the boards. He carried the puck until he ran out of real estate and WHAM back to the glass or the open ice (down on the ice). He has learned to avoid being a hitting dummy. Now he plays the game hard and delivers and receives checks planning for the contact and comes out of it lot cleaner.

He is not a floater trying to stay away from contact like many smaller guys with a scoring touch.

Hope this is what you meant by any bite to his game.

What's the biggest difference you see compared to earlier in the season? Is the improvement based on being smarter or being stronger and faster.

 

[Bgav]

Pretty embarrassing how many ppl wanted to give up on shink this season

 

[Bad Goalie]

Concern over his play through most of the season was justified. It's hard to determine just how much the injury was a factor.

I'm encouraged that he's shown late season progress, but I want to see him pick up where he left off next year. People were giving Jensen a shot at making the big club after he heated up at the end of last season in the AHL. We all know how that turned out.

I realize they're different ages, different players. I just want to see this kind of production over a much larger stretch of games.

"It's hard to determine just how much the injury was a factor."

Did you actually watch this kid skate in October, November, December.......April? If you did, you wouldn't have made that statement.

The kid I watched skating up and down the wing was nothing like the player I had read about. Skating was supposed to be his game. In the beginning skating was his biggest problem. He could go hard straight ahead, but was always a step too slow at anything he tried to do. His effort could never be questioned. No one worked harder. No one accomplished less in spite of all that work.

It was like he was trying to learn how to play the game. In essence that is exactly what he was trying to do. He was learning to play his game once again. His hip had to be reconditioned to game speed in a league faster than the league where his past top speed was very efficient. His speed wasn't up to his Jr. speed and the AHL was much faster. He also didn't have the quicks. He couldn't stop on a dime and power in another direction. Some of his stick handle in the phone booth moves saw him fall down.

Every guy I read posts from who told us he was healthy by training camp and the injury had been rehabbed and therefore he can't use his injury as a crutch is talking through his ***. I watched him every day. I saw a rehabbing athlete trying to compete at a high level he didn't yet have. Green stuck with him. They designed his game as north/south so he could compete. He did. He couldn't hit a bull in the *** with a scoop shovel early on. That's how inaccurate his shot was. His best move was a dip in and try to go wide. Result? Plastered to the boards by veteran D-men who used him for checking practice.

As the season progressed his speed got better infinitesimally game by game. By mid-season he was much faster and had better quicks, his starting power from stop much quicker. His cuts and maneuverability was still lacking. The hip just wouldn't let the legs and feet go exactly where he wanted and as fast as he wanted, but Green increased his ability to move off his wing with the play. No longer just a north/south player.

Now? Everything seems to be physically working on the same page as his brain. It's still getting better in those same little increments. He's all over the ice darting here and there, in and out of dirty areas to avail himself of scoring opportunities. If his finish was acute, he'd be potting more than he has in the past month. He gets lots more chances than his goal scoring would reveal. He can only become more productive as he moves along.

If he goes the Jensen trail, I'd be shocked. This kid is a worker and a learner. Jensen is a moper, a pouter, and a headstrong player that just doesn't appear to take coaching for more than a game or two before he regresses right back to the selfish me against the world player that will never succeed.

It was hard watching a kid who loves this game as much as Hunter does not be able to do what he knew he used to be able to do. It's back in a large portion now and as I have posted on other pages, no one has more fun playing this game than Hunter Shinkaruk. His goal celebrations are a joy to watch. He is just as happy when a line mate scores. He congratulates goal scorers from the bench as if he had a part in it. Many guys dread practice. Hunter is one of the first guys on the ice and one of the last guys off. He celebrates his and his mates goals in practice with the same enthusiasm as he does in the games. It will be a sad day when this kid can no longer play this game, that's how much he lives it (and that's lives it not loves it, it wasn't a typo).

I look for a good playoff performance. Next season he should be the player everyone with high expectations thought he would be this year.
Knocking him for low output next year would be acceptable. The same knocks this year were unrealistic and ridiculous.

Sometimes you wonder if some of these posters ever had on a pair of skates. Then if they had, have they ever tried to perform at this level and then do it on body parts that just can't perform the tasks the brain asks them to perform because they are not recovered from a serious injury that every single human recovers from at their own individual rate. There is no set timetable for a full recovery that enables an athlete to perform at the level Hunter needs to perform at in order to be successful. I believe we have yet to see the real Hunter Shinkaruk.

P.S. I was down on him at the beginning of the season as well. I'm not a Hunter lover. I just saw what I saw and realized what he was going through. Where he is now is testimony to his work level and the support Green and his staff extended to this kid all along the tough road he has navigated and will continue to travel as he develops fully.

 

[arttk]

"It's hard to determine just how much the injury was a factor."

Did you actually watch this kid skate in October, November, December.......April? If you did, you wouldn't have made that statement.

The kid I watched skating up and down the wing was nothing like the player I had read about. Skating was supposed to be his game. In the beginning skating was his biggest problem. He could go hard straight ahead, but was always a step too slow at anything he tried to do. His effort could never be questioned. No one worked harder. No one accomplished less in spite of all that work.

It was like he was trying to learn how to play the game. In essence that is exactly what he was trying to do. He was learning to play his game once again. His hip had to be reconditioned to game speed in a league faster than the league where his past top speed was very efficient. His speed wasn't up to his Jr. speed and the AHL was much faster. He also didn't have the quicks. He couldn't stop on a dime and power in another direction. Some of his stick handle in the phone booth moves saw him fall down.

Every guy I read posts from who told us he was healthy by training camp and the injury had been rehabbed and therefore he can't use his injury as a crutch is talking through his ***. I watched him every day. I saw a rehabbing athlete trying to compete at a high level he didn't yet have. Green stuck with him. They designed his game as north/south so he could compete. He did. He couldn't hit a bull in the *** with a scoop shovel early on. That's how inaccurate his shot was. His best move was a dip in and try to go wide. Result? Plastered to the boards by veteran D-men who used him for checking practice.

As the season progressed his speed got better infinitesimally game by game. By mid-season he was much faster and had better quicks, his starting power from stop much quicker. His cuts and maneuverability was still lacking. The hip just wouldn't let the legs and feet go exactly where he wanted and as fast as he wanted, but Green increased his ability to move off his wing with the play. No longer just a north/south player.

Now? Everything seems to be physically working on the same page as his brain. It's still getting better in those same little increments. He's all over the ice darting here and there, in and out of dirty areas to avail himself of scoring opportunities. If his finish was acute, he'd be potting more than he has in the past month. He gets lots more chances than his goal scoring would reveal. He can only become more productive as he moves along.

If he goes the Jensen trail, I'd be shocked. This kid is a worker and a learner. Jensen is a moper, a pouter, and a headstrong player that just doesn't appear to take coaching for more than a game or two before he regresses right back to the selfish me against the world player that will never succeed.

It was hard watching a kid who loves this game as much as Hunter does not be able to do what he knew he used to be able to do. It's back in a large portion now and as I have posted on other pages, no one has more fun playing this game than Hunter Shinkaruk. His goal celebrations are a joy to watch. He is just as happy when a line mate scores. He congratulates goal scorers from the bench as if he had a part in it. Many guys dread practice. Hunter is one of the first guys on the ice and one of the last guys off. He celebrates his and his mates goals in practice with the same enthusiasm as he does in the games. It will be a sad day when this kid can no longer play this game, that's how much he lives it (and that's lives it not loves it, it wasn't a typo).

I look for a good playoff performance. Next season he should be the player everyone with high expectations thought he would be this year.
Knocking him for low output next year would be acceptable. The same knocks this year were unrealistic and ridiculous.

Sometimes you wonder if some of these posters ever had on a pair of skates. Then if they had, have they ever tried to perform at this level and then do it on body parts that just can't perform the tasks the brain asks them to perform because they are not recovered from a serious injury that every single human recovers from at their own individual rate. There is no set timetable for a full recovery that enables an athlete to perform at the level Hunter needs to perform at in order to be successful. I believe have yet to see the real Hunter Shinkaruk.

P.S. I was down on him at the beginning of the season as well. I'm not as Hunter lover. I just saw what I saw and realized what he was going through. Where he is now is testimony to his work level and the support Green and his staff extended to this kid all along the tough road he has navigated and will continue to travel as he develops fully.

Thanks that was a great post.

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

Again, nobody called him a bust. I can't believe the reading comprehension here.

The longer you spend in the AHL without playing yourself out of that league, the closer you are to being a bust. He needed to turn things around in a hurry. He's started to, which is good. How hard is that to comprehend?

As for the injury, it isn't just 'oh, he'll have a bad year coming back off it and then in 16-17 he'll be as good as if he'd never been hurt!'

Having two crappy development years exponentially lowers his chance of being a good player, even if he was tracking well before the injury. After a similar injury, Kesler was never remotely the same player again.

People want to act like the injury gives him a pass for a poor developmental season, but that it doesn't change his upside or long-term forecast at all. Which just isn't reality.

Why does having an injury have to = a poor developmental year? Is it because his point production isn't there? That's pretty much stat watching and something that's not good for showing how good a prospects is/will be.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Why does having an injury have to = a poor developmental year? Is it because his point production isn't there? That's pretty much stat watching and something that's not good for showing how good a prospects is/will be.

Yup. This year, by definition, was an excellent year of development for Shinkaruk. He came in as one of the youngest players in the league (coming off of a serious injury), had his struggles, took time to learn the pro game, and by the end of the season he's putting things together, generating points, and from all reports he's playing like a pro and has also been creating chances on the ice and making himself noticed. A successful year if you ask me, but you'll always have those Debbie Downers who play it safe and call almost every prospect a bust.

 

[Ryp37]

Yup. This year, by definition, was an excellent year of development for Shinkaruk. He came in as one of the youngest players in the league (coming off of a serious injury), had his struggles, took time to learn the pro game, and by the end of the season he's putting things together, generating points, and from all reports he's playing like a pro and has also been creating chances on the ice and making himself noticed. A successful year if you ask me, but you'll always have those Debbie Downers who play it safe and call almost every prospect a bust.

Saying a player isnt tracking well isnt calling him a bust

dont know how many times this has to be said

 

[F A N]

Detroit has had a few, but a guy like Nyquist dominated the AHL immediately as a rookie and would have been in the NHL far quicker on any other team. It wasn't like he was doing a slow boil down there.

I don't disagree with you that it is all about progression and if an offensive prospect isn't dominating the AHL by his third year in the AHL the chances are he won't make it. So unless he suddenly puts it all together, a guy like Jensen would unlikely develop into an NHL top 6 forward at this point.

With that said, Nyquist was 22 when he started his first full AHL season. Shinkaruk was 20. Ondrej Palat didn't dominate in his first season either. It is all about progression and professional hockey is an adjustment.

 

[D0ctorCool]

"It's hard to determine just how much the injury was a factor."

Did you actually watch this kid skate in October, November, December.......April? If you did, you wouldn't have made that statement.

Bravo!

This is an extremely insightful post. People can debate whether or not Shinkaruk's a bust or not based on his numbers, etc . But it's really this kind of analysis that I place far more stock in. Thanks for posting it

 

[y2kcanucks]

Saying a player isnt tracking well isnt calling him a bust

dont know how many times this has to be said

Suggesting a former 1st rounder will have only a 10% chance at making the NHL because he's playing in the AHL next year is essentially calling him a bust.

 

[vanuck]

Agreed. I don't think we can just pretend the injury never happened. Do you know what his stats were for the second half?

Literally nobody has pretended like his injury never happened. It's why most people gave him a free pass for the first half of the season because it was always going to be difficult to adapt while getting back his form.

The only question here is when that benefit of the doubt gets taken away.