Hunter Shinkaruk - Part II

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MS

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Mar 18, 2002
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Why does having an injury have to = a poor developmental year? Is it because his point production isn't there? That's pretty much stat watching and something that's not good for showing how good a prospects is/will be.

A season where a prospect spends the first 70 games struggling badly (and as an occasional healthy scratch) because of an injury is not a good development year. I don't see how this can be argued.

If the injury hadn't happened, and if Shinkaruk was tracking properly, he should have been in the NHL this year or dominating the AHL.

Yup. This year, by definition, was an excellent year of development for Shinkaruk. He came in as one of the youngest players in the league (coming off of a serious injury), had his struggles, took time to learn the pro game, and by the end of the season he's putting things together, generating points, and from all reports he's playing like a pro and has also been creating chances on the ice and making himself noticed. A successful year if you ask me, but you'll always have those Debbie Downers who play it safe and call almost every prospect a bust.

... and more of this crap.

1) I didn't call Shinkaruk a bust.

2) I don't call every prospect a bust. I've been one of the biggest tire-pampers here for Horvat, McCann, Lack, Tanev, Corrado and others who were actually tracking well and excelling.

3) try naming a Canuck prospect I've been wrong about.

Suggesting a former 1st rounder will have only a 10% chance at making the NHL because he's playing in the AHL next year is essentially calling him a bust.

No, it isn't.

It's just reality. Statistically, a guy taken where Shinkaruk was has about a 50% chance of being a contributing NHL player on the day he's drafted. That drops every year the player doesn't reach the NHL.

If Shinkaruk spends a second full season in the AHL next year, his odds of making it are very small.
 

vanuck

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Dec 28, 2009
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Saying a prospect isn't tracking well is a bit like a weather forecast essentially. X chance of rain etc but it may or may not happen.

Saying a prospect is a bust is basically when it has rained.

Yeah, it's a little bit of semantics going on.
 

y2kcanucks

Le Sex God
Aug 3, 2006
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A season where a prospect spends the first 70 games struggling badly (and as an occasional healthy scratch) because of an injury is not a good development year. I don't see how this can be argued.

If the injury hadn't happened, and if Shinkaruk was tracking properly, he should have been in the NHL this year or dominating the AHL.



... and more of this crap.

1) I didn't call Shinkaruk a bust.

2) I don't call every prospect a bust. I've been one of the biggest tire-pampers here for Horvat, McCann, Lack, Tanev, Corrado and others who were actually tracking well and excelling.

3) try naming a Canuck prospect I've been wrong about.



No, it isn't.

It's just reality. Statistically, a guy taken where Shinkaruk was has about a 50% chance of being a contributing NHL player on the day he's drafted. That drops every year the player doesn't reach the NHL.

If Shinkaruk spends a second full season in the AHL next year, his odds of making it are very small.

Suggesting a player has an overwhelming chance of not making the NHL is essentially calling him a bust.

And no, what I said isn't crap, but feel free to call it crap if it makes you feel better. All you're doing is stat watching. Granted I haven't watched too many Utica Comets games myself, I do pay attention to those who do (Bad Goalie being one of them who I have paid attention to), and I have read reports from others who have watched the Comets and Shinkaruk, and to what his coach has been saying.
 

arttk

Registered User
Feb 16, 2006
17,036
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Los Angeles
A season where a prospect spends the first 70 games struggling badly (and as an occasional healthy scratch) because of an injury is not a good development year. I don't see how this can be argued.

If the injury hadn't happened, and if Shinkaruk was tracking properly, he should have been in the NHL this year or dominating the AHL.



... and more of this crap.

1) I didn't call Shinkaruk a bust.

2) I don't call every prospect a bust. I've been one of the biggest tire-pampers here for Horvat, McCann, Lack, Tanev, Corrado and others who were actually tracking well and excelling.

3) try naming a Canuck prospect I've been wrong about.



No, it isn't.

It's just reality. Statistically, a guy taken where Shinkaruk was has about a 50% chance of being a contributing NHL player on the day he's drafted. That drops every year the player doesn't reach the NHL.

If Shinkaruk spends a second full season in the AHL next year, his odds of making it are very small.

Agree with everything you are saying, not sure why some posters are making something out of this.
 

biturbo19

Registered User
Jul 13, 2010
25,152
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"It's hard to determine just how much the injury was a factor."

Did you actually watch this kid skate in October, November, December.......April? If you did, you wouldn't have made that statement.

The kid I watched skating up and down the wing was nothing like the player I had read about. Skating was supposed to be his game. In the beginning skating was his biggest problem. He could go hard straight ahead, but was always a step too slow at anything he tried to do. His effort could never be questioned. No one worked harder. No one accomplished less in spite of all that work.

It was like he was trying to learn how to play the game. In essence that is exactly what he was trying to do. He was learning to play his game once again. His hip had to be reconditioned to game speed in a league faster than the league where his past top speed was very efficient. His speed wasn't up to his Jr. speed and the AHL was much faster. He also didn't have the quicks. He couldn't stop on a dime and power in another direction. Some of his stick handle in the phone booth moves saw him fall down.

Every guy I read posts from who told us he was healthy by training camp and the injury had been rehabbed and therefore he can't use his injury as a crutch is talking through his ***. I watched him every day. I saw a rehabbing athlete trying to compete at a high level he didn't yet have. Green stuck with him. They designed his game as north/south so he could compete. He did. He couldn't hit a bull in the *** with a scoop shovel early on. That's how inaccurate his shot was. His best move was a dip in and try to go wide. Result? Plastered to the boards by veteran D-men who used him for checking practice.

As the season progressed his speed got better infinitesimally game by game. By mid-season he was much faster and had better quicks, his starting power from stop much quicker. His cuts and maneuverability was still lacking. The hip just wouldn't let the legs and feet go exactly where he wanted and as fast as he wanted, but Green increased his ability to move off his wing with the play. No longer just a north/south player.

Now? Everything seems to be physically working on the same page as his brain. It's still getting better in those same little increments. He's all over the ice darting here and there, in and out of dirty areas to avail himself of scoring opportunities. If his finish was acute, he'd be potting more than he has in the past month. He gets lots more chances than his goal scoring would reveal. He can only become more productive as he moves along.

If he goes the Jensen trail, I'd be shocked. This kid is a worker and a learner. Jensen is a moper, a pouter, and a headstrong player that just doesn't appear to take coaching for more than a game or two before he regresses right back to the selfish me against the world player that will never succeed.

It was hard watching a kid who loves this game as much as Hunter does not be able to do what he knew he used to be able to do. It's back in a large portion now and as I have posted on other pages, no one has more fun playing this game than Hunter Shinkaruk. His goal celebrations are a joy to watch. He is just as happy when a line mate scores. He congratulates goal scorers from the bench as if he had a part in it. Many guys dread practice. Hunter is one of the first guys on the ice and one of the last guys off. He celebrates his and his mates goals in practice with the same enthusiasm as he does in the games. It will be a sad day when this kid can no longer play this game, that's how much he lives it (and that's lives it not loves it, it wasn't a typo).

I look for a good playoff performance. Next season he should be the player everyone with high expectations thought he would be this year.
Knocking him for low output next year would be acceptable. The same knocks this year were unrealistic and ridiculous.

Sometimes you wonder if some of these posters ever had on a pair of skates. Then if they had, have they ever tried to perform at this level and then do it on body parts that just can't perform the tasks the brain asks them to perform because they are not recovered from a serious injury that every single human recovers from at their own individual rate. There is no set timetable for a full recovery that enables an athlete to perform at the level Hunter needs to perform at in order to be successful. I believe we have yet to see the real Hunter Shinkaruk.

P.S. I was down on him at the beginning of the season as well. I'm not a Hunter lover. I just saw what I saw and realized what he was going through. Where he is now is testimony to his work level and the support Green and his staff extended to this kid all along the tough road he has navigated and will continue to travel as he develops fully.

Thank you for this.

For all the bust/not bust, percentage chances of success forecasts, up/downs of Shinkaruk's season, i think this post really hits on the core of why there is some reason for a bit of optimism with this prospect right now...He's starting to look like the Hunter Shinkaruk that we drafted again, and he's always looked like a guy who was willing to do anything under the sun to get to where he wants to go. Some bad development years in there, yes...missing almost an entire post-draft season is not remotely good, and the subsequent struggles to get back to even that same form this season are not really good either. It's time spent clawing back to a previous point in development...that is not "good".

But the fact that he seems to at least be getting back to where he was at pre-injury, and learning a lot of hopefully important lessons along the way stumbling in to the Pro game halfway lame and weak as can be...without giving up on it, it's a glimmer of hope. And reason to really look forward to seeing what he can do next season.
 

MS

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Mar 18, 2002
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Suggesting a player has an overwhelming chance of not making the NHL is essentially calling him a bust.

And no, what I said isn't crap, but feel free to call it crap if it makes you feel better. All you're doing is stat watching. Granted I haven't watched too many Utica Comets games myself, I do pay attention to those who do (Bad Goalie being one of them who I have paid attention to), and I have read reports from others who have watched the Comets and Shinkaruk, and to what his coach has been saying.

Again, reading comprehension. Even if the 10% comment was calling him a bust, that's only an eventuality if he plays all of next year in the AHL. So it isn't remotely calling him a bust now.

I haven't seen as many Utica games as I'd like, either. And have seen all the same reports you have.

And yeah, it is crap. You didn't try naming a prospect I've been wrong about because you can't. And if you can't, then stuff the 'Debbie Downer' and 'negative about everything' rubbish.
 

biturbo19

Registered User
Jul 13, 2010
25,152
10,132
There isn't a 'sky is falling attitude'. It's just reality.

The moment Shinkaruk is in a box of 'forward prospect who spent a full season in the AHL', his odds of getting out of that box to became an NHL player with value are maybe 30%.

If he spends another full season in the AHL next year, it's maybe 10%.

Guys who make the NHL - ESPECIALLY skill forwards - barely touch the AHL in general.

And NOBODY called him a bust. People just said he wasn't tracking well and if he doesn't have a serious turnaround he'd be heading into bust territory pretty quickly. Which was true.

You're not wrong here. It's a harsh reality...but it's the way things generally tend to work.

However, i still think this position is better framed within the context of success rates for prospects maturing into real "top-6 NHL skill forwards" in general. The larger picture. Once you step outside the top 10-15 or so picks, the odds on the rest of the draftees developing into a productive, consistent top-6 NHL scoring forward are...not that great to begin with. Regardless of whether they land in that AHL box or not. Lots of impact players outside of that window to point at as examples, sure...but relative to the number of forwards drafted every year and not long after, tossed on the scrap heap as outright busts? The percentage chance of getting an impact "top-6 scorer" is already very low to begin with.

And the other framing element that can help soften this, is the context of the individual, specific player themselves. And in the case of Shinkaruk, there have been a huge number of extenuating factors colluding against him...that could conceivably make him one of "The 10%" or whatever you want to set the specific odds at who succeed against the grain. There's more to hockey that statistics and math, and when it comes down to a confluence of factors stacked against Shinkaruk in his first year jump to the Pros, i think some real leeway is fair to grant him.

Next year is going to be huge for Shinkaruk...he's got a lot of ground to make up, and relatively little time. But if he can come into next season improved upon where he's at right now to end this season...there's still plenty of hope for him. Even if he does have to spend the bulk of his season in Utica again.
 

Wilch

Unregistered User
Mar 29, 2010
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Suggesting a former 1st rounder will have only a 10% chance at making the NHL because he's playing in the AHL next year is essentially calling him a bust.

Depends on your definition of "making" the NHL.

If it's playing in the NHL, many first rounders achieve that.

If "making it" is becoming a player most envisaged one to become at the time of the draft, not many players do.
 

y2kcanucks

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Aug 3, 2006
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Again, reading comprehension. Even if the 10% comment was calling him a bust, that's only an eventuality if he plays all of next year in the AHL. So it isn't remotely calling him a bust now.

I haven't seen as many Utica games as I'd like, either. And have seen all the same reports you have.

And yeah, it is crap. You didn't try naming a prospect I've been wrong about because you can't. And if you can't, then stuff the 'Debbie Downer' and 'negative about everything' rubbish.

My reading comprehension is just fine. Maybe you don't understand the very words that you're using, but that's not my problem. Hell you even suggested right now he's only at a 30% chance of making the NHL. I would like to see what % you give to a typical 1st rounder to begin with.

And no, it isn't crap. I'm not going to go through your entire post history to track down where you were wrong. Unlike some, I don't keep tabs on where certain posters are wrong and where they are right, and I couldn't care less to be honest.
 

John Belushi

Registered Boozer
Feb 5, 2006
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Suggesting a former 1st rounder will have only a 10% chance at making the NHL because he's playing in the AHL next year is essentially calling him a bust.

You have such a black and white way of seeing things in hockey...

Allow Shinkaruk to play his game. He's finally starting to figure it out! Temper expectations, exercise patience, and expect some growing pains.. but I think Hunter will be an NHL player when it's all said and done.
 

BeardyCanuck03

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Jun 19, 2006
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A season where a prospect spends the first 70 games struggling badly (and as an occasional healthy scratch) because of an injury is not a good development year. I don't see how this can be argued.

If the injury hadn't happened, and if Shinkaruk was tracking properly, he should have been in the NHL this year or dominating the AHL.

You're basically saying that Hunter can't develop well due to an injury. Just because production doesn't match up to what you think doesn't mean he isn't developing well. Specially when considering he jumped up a level (WHL to AHL) and was coming off major surgery.

What I'm saying is that despite the injury, the way Shinkaruk's play has improved throughout the season shows that it's been a good developmental season for him.
 

Hansen

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Oct 12, 2011
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Hey man you've gotta play it safe, never ever make definitive statements about anything other than playing the percentages by saying "it's really not looking good for [player] at this point"

The moment your personal opinion is involved you lose credibility.

Shinkaruks been good btw
 

vancityluongo

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Shinkaruk isn't having a good developmental season just because he "improved" IMO. Of course it's a good sign that he improved, but it probably doesn't mean all that much given that he started off pretty poorly (coming off of an injuryâ„¢).
 

y2kcanucks

Le Sex God
Aug 3, 2006
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Shinkaruk isn't having a good developmental season just because he "improved" IMO. Of course it's a good sign that he improved, but it probably doesn't mean all that much given that he started off pretty poorly (coming off of an injuryâ„¢).

He had a very good developmental year. He started off slower due to his injury, but he also tried relying on the moves that he got by with in junior that don't work at the pro level. By all accounts he's learned how to play like a pro and that's now being reflected in the stats. The stat watchers will all claim he's been terrible, but those who have watched him and have commented on him suggest he's had a good developmental year.
 

biturbo19

Registered User
Jul 13, 2010
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He had a very good developmental year. He started off slower due to his injury, but he also tried relying on the moves that he got by with in junior that don't work at the pro level. By all accounts he's learned how to play like a pro and that's now being reflected in the stats. The stat watchers will all claim he's been terrible, but those who have watched him and have commented on him suggest he's had a good developmental year.

There's a big difference between a "good developmental year", and a year in which a player starts to show real signs of development late, as they overcome a number of factors that held them back.

A "good developmental year" for Shinkaruk would have been one where he was healthy and came into his first ever Pro season bulked up a bit, skating like he was prior to his injury and obviously with that...you'd hope for productivity. Obviously that was not the reality of the situation.

I'm extremely encouraged by the signs Shinkaruk has shown of late and don't feel any need to puff out my chest and throw out percentages along the road so i'm never wrong about a prospect. But to call this season a "good developmental year" for him is a bit off. And to call last season anything but a "lost year" is also way off.

He's walking the long road to the NHL...if he makes it. He simply has not had a "good developmental season" since draft day. I'm rooting for him all the way, and i really do think he has the attributes to beat those oft quoted odds. But i'm not going to pretend this year was a great developmental season for him any more than i'm going to call him a bust for it.
 

Pip

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Feb 2, 2012
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He had a very good developmental year. He started off slower due to his injury, but he also tried relying on the moves that he got by with in junior that don't work at the pro level. By all accounts he's learned how to play like a pro and that's now being reflected in the stats. The stat watchers will all claim he's been terrible, but those who have watched him and have commented on him suggest he's had a good developmental year.

Huge understatement
 

NuxFan09

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Jun 8, 2008
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Shinkaruk looks like a classic case of a prospect who "got it" and then flipped the switch late in the season. His playoffs will tell us a lot, methinks. If he beasts it, he's back to being a top prospect in my mind.
 

vanuck

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Dec 28, 2009
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"It's hard to determine just how much the injury was a factor."

Did you actually watch this kid skate in October, November, December.......April? If you did, you wouldn't have made that statement.

The kid I watched skating up and down the wing was nothing like the player I had read about. Skating was supposed to be his game. In the beginning skating was his biggest problem. He could go hard straight ahead, but was always a step too slow at anything he tried to do. His effort could never be questioned. No one worked harder. No one accomplished less in spite of all that work.

It was like he was trying to learn how to play the game. In essence that is exactly what he was trying to do. He was learning to play his game once again. His hip had to be reconditioned to game speed in a league faster than the league where his past top speed was very efficient. His speed wasn't up to his Jr. speed and the AHL was much faster. He also didn't have the quicks. He couldn't stop on a dime and power in another direction. Some of his stick handle in the phone booth moves saw him fall down.

Every guy I read posts from who told us he was healthy by training camp and the injury had been rehabbed and therefore he can't use his injury as a crutch is talking through his ***. I watched him every day. I saw a rehabbing athlete trying to compete at a high level he didn't yet have. Green stuck with him. They designed his game as north/south so he could compete. He did. He couldn't hit a bull in the *** with a scoop shovel early on. That's how inaccurate his shot was. His best move was a dip in and try to go wide. Result? Plastered to the boards by veteran D-men who used him for checking practice.

As the season progressed his speed got better infinitesimally game by game. By mid-season he was much faster and had better quicks, his starting power from stop much quicker. His cuts and maneuverability was still lacking. The hip just wouldn't let the legs and feet go exactly where he wanted and as fast as he wanted, but Green increased his ability to move off his wing with the play. No longer just a north/south player.

Now? Everything seems to be physically working on the same page as his brain. It's still getting better in those same little increments. He's all over the ice darting here and there, in and out of dirty areas to avail himself of scoring opportunities. If his finish was acute, he'd be potting more than he has in the past month. He gets lots more chances than his goal scoring would reveal. He can only become more productive as he moves along.

If he goes the Jensen trail, I'd be shocked. This kid is a worker and a learner. Jensen is a moper, a pouter, and a headstrong player that just doesn't appear to take coaching for more than a game or two before he regresses right back to the selfish me against the world player that will never succeed.

It was hard watching a kid who loves this game as much as Hunter does not be able to do what he knew he used to be able to do. It's back in a large portion now and as I have posted on other pages, no one has more fun playing this game than Hunter Shinkaruk. His goal celebrations are a joy to watch. He is just as happy when a line mate scores. He congratulates goal scorers from the bench as if he had a part in it. Many guys dread practice. Hunter is one of the first guys on the ice and one of the last guys off. He celebrates his and his mates goals in practice with the same enthusiasm as he does in the games. It will be a sad day when this kid can no longer play this game, that's how much he lives it (and that's lives it not loves it, it wasn't a typo).

I look for a good playoff performance. Next season he should be the player everyone with high expectations thought he would be this year.
Knocking him for low output next year would be acceptable. The same knocks this year were unrealistic and ridiculous.

Sometimes you wonder if some of these posters ever had on a pair of skates. Then if they had, have they ever tried to perform at this level and then do it on body parts that just can't perform the tasks the brain asks them to perform because they are not recovered from a serious injury that every single human recovers from at their own individual rate. There is no set timetable for a full recovery that enables an athlete to perform at the level Hunter needs to perform at in order to be successful. I believe we have yet to see the real Hunter Shinkaruk.

P.S. I was down on him at the beginning of the season as well. I'm not a Hunter lover. I just saw what I saw and realized what he was going through. Where he is now is testimony to his work level and the support Green and his staff extended to this kid all along the tough road he has navigated and will continue to travel as he develops fully.

Thanks for the insight as always. Much appreciated.
 

Stonz

Registered User
Oct 10, 2006
1,473
0
Burnaby, BC
"It's hard to determine just how much the injury was a factor."

Did you actually watch this kid skate in October, November, December.......April? If you did, you wouldn't have made that statement.

The kid I watched skating up and down the wing was nothing like the player I had read about. Skating was supposed to be his game. In the beginning skating was his biggest problem. He could go hard straight ahead, but was always a step too slow at anything he tried to do. His effort could never be questioned. No one worked harder. No one accomplished less in spite of all that work.

It was like he was trying to learn how to play the game. In essence that is exactly what he was trying to do. He was learning to play his game once again. His hip had to be reconditioned to game speed in a league faster than the league where his past top speed was very efficient. His speed wasn't up to his Jr. speed and the AHL was much faster. He also didn't have the quicks. He couldn't stop on a dime and power in another direction. Some of his stick handle in the phone booth moves saw him fall down.

Every guy I read posts from who told us he was healthy by training camp and the injury had been rehabbed and therefore he can't use his injury as a crutch is talking through his ***. I watched him every day. I saw a rehabbing athlete trying to compete at a high level he didn't yet have. Green stuck with him. They designed his game as north/south so he could compete. He did. He couldn't hit a bull in the *** with a scoop shovel early on. That's how inaccurate his shot was. His best move was a dip in and try to go wide. Result? Plastered to the boards by veteran D-men who used him for checking practice.

As the season progressed his speed got better infinitesimally game by game. By mid-season he was much faster and had better quicks, his starting power from stop much quicker. His cuts and maneuverability was still lacking. The hip just wouldn't let the legs and feet go exactly where he wanted and as fast as he wanted, but Green increased his ability to move off his wing with the play. No longer just a north/south player.

Now? Everything seems to be physically working on the same page as his brain. It's still getting better in those same little increments. He's all over the ice darting here and there, in and out of dirty areas to avail himself of scoring opportunities. If his finish was acute, he'd be potting more than he has in the past month. He gets lots more chances than his goal scoring would reveal. He can only become more productive as he moves along.

If he goes the Jensen trail, I'd be shocked. This kid is a worker and a learner. Jensen is a moper, a pouter, and a headstrong player that just doesn't appear to take coaching for more than a game or two before he regresses right back to the selfish me against the world player that will never succeed.

It was hard watching a kid who loves this game as much as Hunter does not be able to do what he knew he used to be able to do. It's back in a large portion now and as I have posted on other pages, no one has more fun playing this game than Hunter Shinkaruk. His goal celebrations are a joy to watch. He is just as happy when a line mate scores. He congratulates goal scorers from the bench as if he had a part in it. Many guys dread practice. Hunter is one of the first guys on the ice and one of the last guys off. He celebrates his and his mates goals in practice with the same enthusiasm as he does in the games. It will be a sad day when this kid can no longer play this game, that's how much he lives it (and that's lives it not loves it, it wasn't a typo).

I look for a good playoff performance. Next season he should be the player everyone with high expectations thought he would be this year.
Knocking him for low output next year would be acceptable. The same knocks this year were unrealistic and ridiculous.

Sometimes you wonder if some of these posters ever had on a pair of skates. Then if they had, have they ever tried to perform at this level and then do it on body parts that just can't perform the tasks the brain asks them to perform because they are not recovered from a serious injury that every single human recovers from at their own individual rate. There is no set timetable for a full recovery that enables an athlete to perform at the level Hunter needs to perform at in order to be successful. I believe we have yet to see the real Hunter Shinkaruk.

P.S. I was down on him at the beginning of the season as well. I'm not a Hunter lover. I just saw what I saw and realized what he was going through. Where he is now is testimony to his work level and the support Green and his staff extended to this kid all along the tough road he has navigated and will continue to travel as he develops fully.

Another long-winded post, with some decent info in it. But nothing you said actually refutes the statement you took issue with. Unless you're able to quantify just how much of his struggles were directly attributable to the injury?

I didn't say it was a lot, I didn't say it was a little. All I said was that it was difficult to determine to what extent the injury was a factor.
 
Last edited:

DadBod

Registered User
Sep 1, 2009
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Again, reading comprehension. Even if the 10% comment was calling him a bust, that's only an eventuality if he plays all of next year in the AHL. So it isn't remotely calling him a bust now.

I haven't seen as many Utica games as I'd like, either. And have seen all the same reports you have.

And yeah, it is crap. You didn't try naming a prospect I've been wrong about because you can't. And if you can't, then stuff the 'Debbie Downer' and 'negative about everything' rubbish.

I love your concrete 30% and 10% stats on making the NHL based on your opinion. Well we're just making stuff up, your opinion on Shinkaurik making the NHL is 92% incorrect, 86% incorrect if he plays in the AHL next year.



I'm not quite sure if you know this or not, but the majority of quality NHL players progress through the ranks, including the KHL, Swiss Leauges, AHL ect. A select few jump straight from the CHL to the NHL and make a huge impact, 100% fact.
 

vancityluongo

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Edmonton
He had a very good developmental year. He started off slower due to his injury, but he also tried relying on the moves that he got by with in junior that don't work at the pro level. By all accounts he's learned how to play like a pro and that's now being reflected in the stats. The stat watchers will all claim he's been terrible, but those who have watched him and have commented on him suggest he's had a good developmental year.

Cool. You've had a huge crush on this player since before he was drafted so I'm not going to argue this any further. Improving relative to expectations that were tempered due to poor performance isn't what I would call a developmental success, but agree to disagree.

Either way, hopefully Shinkaruk has stellar playoff run and can have a developmental season next year that puts no question into his stock as a prospect.
 

MS

1%er
Mar 18, 2002
53,362
83,430
Vancouver, BC
My reading comprehension is just fine. Maybe you don't understand the very words that you're using, but that's not my problem. Hell you even suggested right now he's only at a 30% chance of making the NHL. I would like to see what % you give to a typical 1st rounder to begin with.

Initial odds for a forward taken #20-30 overall are about 50%. Between 2004 and 2010, 21 of 43 forwards taken in that range went on to serviceable NHL careers.

And for each year a player doesn't excel toward making the NHL, those numbers drop. Saying Shinkaruk's chances of making the NHL have dropped since his draft isn't calling him a bust and isn't even a remotely controversial statement.

That you don't have a grasp of realities like this might be why you're so consistently wrong about this stuff.

And no, it isn't crap. I'm not going to go through your entire post history to track down where you were wrong. Unlike some, I don't keep tabs on where certain posters are wrong and where they are right, and I couldn't care less to be honest.

What a lazy answer. If you 'couldn't care less', then don't make blanket incorrect statements about other posters and their history.

Frankly I'm impressed that you keep at it in discussions like this given how hilariously wrong you were about guys like Hodgson and Schroeder.
 

MS

1%er
Mar 18, 2002
53,362
83,430
Vancouver, BC
I love your concrete 30% and 10% stats on making the NHL based on your opinion. Well we're just making stuff up, your opinion on Shinkaurik making the NHL is 92% incorrect, 86% incorrect if he plays in the AHL next year.



I'm not quite sure if you know this or not, but the majority of quality NHL players progress through the ranks, including the KHL, Swiss Leauges, AHL ect. A select few jump straight from the CHL to the NHL and make a huge impact, 100% fact.

I'm not pulling numbers out of my ass. I've looked at draft trends and percentages for years.

I'm well aware of various paths to the NHL. And well aware that guys who linger in the AHL (especially forwards, and especially #1 picks) are longshots. If you disagree, provide some evidence. Again, go back and look at the list someone else posted in post #886 of this thread.
 

shortshorts

Registered User
Oct 29, 2008
12,637
99
I'm not quite sure if you know this or not, but the majority of quality NHL players progress through the ranks, including the KHL, Swiss Leauges, AHL ect. A select few jump straight from the CHL to the NHL and make a huge impact, 100% fact.

How many players who slowly progress in those league become top line players in this league?

While I'm not as invested in this discussion as some of you are, I'm willing to bet it's very low.

We drafted Shinkaruk in hopes that he's one of those select few to make a huge impact. We drafted Virtanen in hopes that he's one of those select few to make a huge impact.

If we wanted safer players we'd take another Gaunce (who I'm a huge fan of).

The fact of the matter is - if we're hoping to draft an elite top liner, they need to show promise very quickly. This is strictly off of percentages based on history.
 

BeardyCanuck03

@BeardyCanuck03
Jun 19, 2006
10,823
410
twitter.com
Shinkaruk isn't having a good developmental season just because he "improved" IMO. Of course it's a good sign that he improved, but it probably doesn't mean all that much given that he started off pretty poorly (coming off of an injuryâ„¢).

Do you understand what development is? When you develop you improve.

The expectations that some have had for Shinkaruk this season have been ridiculously high. He has met mine, I expected him to not have a good start because he was coming off a major surgery and was making a step up in level of play from the WHL to the AHL. I was hoping/expecting that by the end of the season he'd have worked through all the post injury issues and the kinks that come with making the step up from Jr to Pro and start producing offensively like he should be, and it may have taken 10-15 games longer than I was ideally hoping for, I'm not disappointed with his season or development at all.

Honestly, just think how'd you react if he had started producing 10-15 games before this. Everyone would be very happy with his development and wouldn't be saying this was another lost season of development.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, how hard it is to come back from a major injury is ridiculously underrated by fans, and then you tack on moving up from Jr to Pro level hockey? I'm not sure what some of you were expecting from Shinkaruk but it was very unrealistic.

If all goes well next season I suspect Shinkaruk will be a similar position to Baertschi this season, ready to make the jump but depending on where the Canucks are in the standings he may only get a few games at the end of the season, but will be expected to be a part of the team in the following year.
 
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