How many points will the 2019-20 CBJ have?

Discussion in 'Columbus Blue Jackets' started by Cyclones Rock, Aug 15, 2019.

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How many points will the 2019-20 CBJ have?

Poll closed Sep 19, 2019.
  1. Under 80........Hello rebuild!

    9.9%
  2. 80-87........Welcome back the CBJ we used to know and love (sometimes)

    27.5%
  3. 88-93.........Miss them thar playoffs by a whisker

    29.7%
  4. 94-102......Keep that playoff engine going

    29.7%
  5. 103+........Bob who? Artemi what?

    3.3%
  1. CBJWennberg10

    CBJWennberg10 Dark Days Have Returned

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    Final predictions on this season day.

    x = wild card, p = presidents trophy

    West

    Central

    Nashville
    St. Louis
    Colorado
    Dallas x
    Chicago x
    Winnipeg
    Minnesota

    Pacific

    Vegas
    San Jose
    Calgary
    Arizona
    Edmonton
    Vancouver
    Anaheim
    LA

    East

    Atlantic

    Tampa p
    Toronto
    Boston
    Florida x
    Montreal
    Buffalo
    Detroit
    Ottawa

    Metro

    Washington
    Carolina
    Philadelphia
    Pittsburgh x
    Columbus
    New York R
    New York I
    New Jersey

    Stanley Cup: Toronto over Vegas in 6

    Jackets point total: 88
    Miss playoffs by how much?: 6-8 points
    Leading scorer: Jones, 60 points
    Leading goal scorer: Atkinson, 33 goals
    Leading assists: Jones, 45 assists
    Best rookie: Texier, 40 points (15-25)
     
  2. FinBlue

    FinBlue Registered User

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    Dont give a shit about anyother team than CBJ. (Actually pens should be last).

    Metro predictions

    1. Caps
    2. Canes
    3. CBJ
    4.Rangers
    5.Pens
    6.Isles
    7. Devils
    8. Flyers
     
  3. Jovavic

    Jovavic Dead behind the eyes

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    These writers gave them no chance against Tampa, f*** them. More bulletin board material.
     
  4. PanarinDangles9

    PanarinDangles9 Registered User Sponsor

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    Won't bother predicting the west, but here's what I'm thinking for the east/playoff bracket

    Metro:
    Washington
    Carolina
    Pittsburgh
    Columbus (wc1, 97 points)
    Philadelphia
    NY Islanders
    New Jersey
    NY Rangers

    Atlantic:
    Tampa
    Boston
    Toronto
    Florida (wc2, 96 points)
    Montreal
    Ottawa
    Buffalo
    Detroit

    (with all of the Rangers, Devils, and Islanders finishing well ahead of Ottawa/Buffalo/Detroit)
     
  5. EspenK

    EspenK Registered User

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    How can you think that Jackets will have 1 fewer point than last year with losing Bread, Bob & Duchene. I know Duchene was only here for awhile but he helped win some games.

    I don't get it.
     
  6. EspenK

    EspenK Registered User

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    Central is going to be a dogfight. Pacific looks like a cakewalk for top 3.

    I think you might be sleeping on the Rangers and Devils. Goalies to make a big difference with them as well as with the Jackets. Carolina has G issues too. I like your high expectations for Philly. I thik Vigneault is a plus for them and if Carter Hart lives up to his hype look out.
     
  7. Jovavic

    Jovavic Dead behind the eyes

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    Bob was feast or famine last year, equals out to an average year. The team will score less, that's to be expected, but if the goaltending even only improves slightly then there shouldn't be much difference in the way of points imo
     
  8. Monk

    Monk Registered User

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    Weren't you one of the dudes that kept saying Bread & Bob were a distraction?
     
  9. EspenK

    EspenK Registered User

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    Yes, I was. But Bread still put up 87 points and Bob was pretty good. They were a distraction but at least they produced on the ice, Bread more so than Bob but still both helped on ice.
     
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  10. Double-Shift Lasse

    Double-Shift Lasse Just post better

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    How many regular season points was Duchene around for?

    How many points did the team have the season before Bread arrived?

    The answers might not equal playoffs in everyone's mind, but to not "get it"?
     
  11. Long Live Lyle

    Long Live Lyle Registered User

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    1) The CBJ extrapolated point total at the deadline was I think a little over 96. So virtually a wash from the 98 we ended up at and the 97 in that prediction, as far as Duchene goes.

    2) Bob wasn’t very good for most of last year. He turned it on late in the season and in the playoffs, but we largely got to 98 points on the back of pretty meh goaltending for most of the year.

    3) Obviously, Panarin’s a huge loss, but Nyquist helps replace that lost WAR a bit. Further, you have a full season of Texier. And of our returning roster, there should be more growth (PLD, Z, Jones, Bjorkstrand) than regression (pretty much just Foligno. Maybe Atkinson, but I think his style of game ages well). I also think there’s more possibilities for bounce-back years (Wennberg, Nash) than there are guys who outperformed themselves last year and had fluky good years (again, maybe Atkinson, but he’s a pretty proven player).

    Keep in mind, this team was tied for 6th in the league in goals scored BEFORE Panarin’s arrival.

    4) No distractions. I’d rather have talent and distractions than no talent and no distractions, of course, but I do think locker room drama cost us some points last year probably. So if you say we could’ve been 106 points with the talent we had last year without distractions, that can more easily extrapolate to 97 points this year. Just hypothetically speaking, of course, since that’s impossible to measure.

    We will probably need all the following to make the playoffs:

    a) Average goaltending
    b) One of Texier or Bemstrom to be ready to be a significant contributor.
    c) Relative health (not prerfect health, but no major injuries to guys like Jones or PLD)
    d) Wennberg to be solid. Not great (though I’d take that) but he can’t suck

    Those are not impossible. It’s also possible none of those things happen and our season becomes a trainwreck.
     
  12. EspenK

    EspenK Registered User

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    What do you mean? :sarcasm::laugh:
     
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  13. JacketsDavid

    JacketsDavid Registered User

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    When Bob was "meh" our entire defense looked bad. Only once Bob played better late did our D look like a good squad. Bob was better than what you give him credit IMO.

    Nyquist is slated for 3rd line work it seems? Maybe that has changed recently. Also last year was a good year by Nyquist, so he's more likely to regress IMO.

    Just me I'd take talent. Now I wouldn't take DIVA talent but probably 75% of the goalies in the NHL are head cases. And it sounded like the CBJ tried to keep those head cases up to the bitter end.

    Again I see a decent team, but I don't believe in the defense as being elite (good not great - I know not a popular opinion), I have little faith in the goalies especially early on (I think this is more generally acceptable), and losing Panarin will hurt.
     
    Cyclones Rock likes this.
  14. PanarinDangles9

    PanarinDangles9 Registered User Sponsor

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    Because the team is mostly the same (minus Bob) compared to the 108-pt season we had pre-Panarin. The season is going to largely hinge on the goaltending. While I'm not the biggest believer in Korpisalo, I think we'll get at least league average goaltending. It's not like we lack scoring depth at forward, and our defense is possibly the deepest in the league.
     
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  15. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

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    The CBJ have no top end scorers. Atkinson was 52nd in league scoring last season. PLD was 66th and Nyquist was 67th. The defense will have to play more conservatively due to the loss of Bob and having to compensate for his two unproven replacements. It is very possible that their collective point totals may decline.

    Scoring could easily be a big problem for this team.

    Korpisalo and Merzlikins are complete unknowns as NHL starters and in Merzlikins case, unknown to be of NHL quality. Over the past two seasons, Korpisalo probably performed worse than many goalies stuck in the AHL would have. Lots of question marks here. Despite Bob's uneven season, the CBJ ranked 11th out of 31 in goals against average last season at 2.82. These two will be hard pressed to match that.

    The center corps of PLD/Wennberg/Jenner/Nash lacks top end quality. They probably rate in the bottom third of NHL teams in overall quality. Lacking a true #1C is not a positive.

    In order for the CBJ to have a respectable season, the two goalies are going to have to have a combined save percentage around Bob's .913 of last season. There can be no significant production fall off for Atkinson or PLD and 2 of the 3 of Bjorkstrand, Texier and Bemstrom will have to have 25 or more goals.

    In the absence of outstanding OT records the past two seasons, the CBJ would have been on the outside looking in the past two post seasons. It is probable that OT performance regresses to the mean this season, so no "extra time" performance will save the bacon this season.

    The schedule is not easy starting the season. That does not help the playoff cause.

    I predict a record very close to .500 or roughly 82 points. The ice making equipment at Nationwide will get an early rest this season.
     
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2019
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  16. Long Live Lyle

    Long Live Lyle Registered User

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    To be clear on the talent thing, I’d also take drama but talent over no drama and no talent. But I think we had a team that was more talented than 98 points last year that didn’t reach its full potential due to locker room issues. Therefore, even though we have less talent this year, it might actually be around that high 90s threshold.
     
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  17. Old Guy

    Old Guy Just waitin' on my medication.

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    Last year, the Columbus Blue Jackets had a team save % of .907. That was 17th in the league. The league average was .910.
    I fully expect Elvis and The Korpedo to put up a save percentage of about .915. Said another way, I expect fans and scribes to be complaining about the goaltending, but it will actually be marginally better. What will make it seem that way is because the goal scoring will be down. The team score 256 goals last year. They gave up 31.6 shots per game. I expect that to drop by about 2.5 or 3. Anaheim had the best shots against at 27.7. Next best was Los Angeles at 28.8
    The challenge will be scoring. 28.5 shots per game at a .915 save % = 201 goals against. If anybody inside the group of Milano, Bemstrom, Texier, Nash, Wennberg, or Lilja get hot and produce, the Jackets will finish to 2 in the Metro.

    Bonus Prediction: Pittsburgh will miss the playoffs.
     
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  18. CBJWennberg10

    CBJWennberg10 Dark Days Have Returned

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    Perhaps I'm being ignorant, but I really don't see how the Devils are everybodys dark horse to make the playoffs. Schneider rebounding to (somewhat) form would really help, and he played exceptionally well against us in the preseason, but I just don't trust them. It's Taylor Hall, PK Subban,and a bunch of kids. They'll be good soon, but I just don't see their appeal this year.
     
  19. EspenK

    EspenK Registered User

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    They also added Wayne Simmonds and Gusev. Both question marks but I don't see either of them being bad for the team Also Jack Hughes isn't chopped liver. I think they have question marks for sure but I like them to get mostly positive answers.
     
  20. Viqsi

    Viqsi where we're going we won't need eyes to see

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    Simmonds isn't a question mark; he's an empty suit. If there was any term at all on that contract it would be cause for extreme regret on their part.

    OTOH, I do expect Hughes to be a difference-maker, and they've got half of a decent blueline.

    This seems to be a consistent theme for quite a few folks. Every other team in the Metro gets optimistic answers to their questions, but Columbus pretty much only gets neutral or negative ones. That seriously bothers me. I think we've got just as many reasons for optimism (and pessimism) as many of those other teams do.
     
  21. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

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    The CBJ gave up 28.5 shots per game last season not 31.6. They gave up tied for 6th least in the league. That will likely not be improved upon.

    NHL.com - Stats

    Bob had a save percentage of .913 last season. Korpisalo had a save percentage of .897. Korpisalo had a save percentage of .897 the previous season. The year prior to that, he had a save percentage of .905. Your projections of a team save percentage better than what it was last season are based upon what?

    The notion that the goaltending is improved upon ("marginally better") is-I'll be nice- wishful thinking given Bob's defection.
     
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2019
  22. EspenK

    EspenK Registered User

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    Which included a 16 game win streak which is most likely not going to happen again.
     
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  23. Double-Shift Lasse

    Double-Shift Lasse Just post better

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    An attorney would reply here "Asked and answered."
     
  24. majormajor

    majormajor Registered User

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    I think you've got causation backwards here. They were giving away odd-man rushes like candy until March. When that stopped Bob got better.

    In a way, I agree, the D looked bad for most of the year, but I think it's a very fixable problem. Getting rid of safe is death should help significantly.
     
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  25. majormajor

    majormajor Registered User

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    I'm upgrading my expectation for the Devils. If Hall and Palmieri are decently healthy again they should be good. Jack Hughes is really good. Hischier is ready to take a step. Gusev is a nice complement to those guys. I'm not sure about their D, but between Blackwood and Schneider they'll probably have a decent goalie.

    Atlantic

    Tampa 111
    Florida 105
    Toronto 104
    Boston 101
    Montreal 94
    Buffalo 85
    Ottawa 72
    Detroit 70

    Metro

    Carolina 102
    Washington 101
    New Jersey 99
    Pittsburgh 98
    Columbus 95
    Philadelphia 94
    New York I 90
    New York R 84

    So yes, 9th for Columbus.
     

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