How many points will the 2019-20 CBJ have?

Discussion in 'Columbus Blue Jackets' started by Cyclones Rock, Aug 15, 2019.

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How many points will the 2019-20 CBJ have?

Poll closed Sep 19, 2019.
  1. Under 80........Hello rebuild!

    9.9%
  2. 80-87........Welcome back the CBJ we used to know and love (sometimes)

    27.5%
  3. 88-93.........Miss them thar playoffs by a whisker

    29.7%
  4. 94-102......Keep that playoff engine going

    29.7%
  5. 103+........Bob who? Artemi what?

    3.3%
  1. DarkandStormy

    DarkandStormy Registered User

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    I had penciled Nyquist in with PLD and Atkinson back in July, but Torts clearly thinks he's best served (well, vice versa, really) alongside Wennberg to start. I'm not as high on Foligno scoring and that's why I prefer him in a bottom 6 wing role, though I'm sure he'll bounce around the lineup all season. He hasn't broken 40 points in 3 of the last 4 seasons, not missing significant time in any season. When he's not shooting 14+%, he's a sub-40 point player and his ice time has started to dwindle the last couple years. He turns 32 next month, so I doubt there's another level he can get to beyond the 33 and 35 points he put up the last two years (averaging ~18 minutes/game).

    Clearly, there are question marks on the left side outside of Nyquist and Foligno, and those are exacerbated if Foligno moves to the pivot because the bottom 3 centers (Jenner, Wennberg, maybe Foudy, Dubinsky/Nash) can't hack it. Per Torts, they'll try to figure out Tex's role as well - either at LW or C. Based on the Bemstrom buzz, we may see one of the RWs slide over to the left side, which would then bump a Foligno or Jenner to the bottom line if that happens.
     
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  2. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

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    2019-20 NHL Season Preview: Columbus Blue Jackets
     
  3. WubbaLubbaDubDub

    WubbaLubbaDubDub And that's why I always say, Shumshumschilpiddydah

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    So now we're benching him before the season even starts now? Wennberg arguably had one of the best off-seasons of anyone on the team from an outsiders prospective, and we're gonna bench him for a kid whose best known for his speed.

    I get it, you don't like him. But let's wait until camp and preseason before we start benching nhl players for unknown prospects.
     
  4. CPTN71

    CPTN71 GIF it! Sponsor

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    Yeah, pretty depressing reading that.

    Then again his model, and most others didn't give us a chance against Tampa Bay... if there is one flaw with his model its sample size/lack of data to go off potential young studs in Bemstrom, Texier, Elvis, etc.. Which he does point out in the article. So it is fair..
     
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  5. DarkandStormy

    DarkandStormy Registered User

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    Are we ignoring his atrocious even strength performance over the last 75 games he played and imagining it's still 2016-2017 or....
     
  6. majormajor

    majormajor Registered User

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    Dom gave us 25% chance against Tampa, not bad at all.

    He also projected us to be near the top of the league in the regular season last year.
     
  7. WubbaLubbaDubDub

    WubbaLubbaDubDub And that's why I always say, Shumshumschilpiddydah

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    Even with his abysmal season he was only -1. Meaning that teams aren't scoring that much when he's out there. If he's putting up 30-40 pts, eats PK minutes and is still a plus player than there's absolutely no problem with him keeping on the roster as a 3C.

    Id love to see Dubois, Jenner, Wennberg,Nash as our centers with Texier being the next in line for injuries and fill in if Wennberg doesn't bounce back.

    This team should have enough skilled players that Foudy should be forced back into the jrs for one more season. Hannikainen, TFW, Robinson and Stenlund will be competing with Tex, Bemstrom and Milano for one of the spots on the big club over foudy.


    With all that being said I'll happily eat all the crow in the world if both Texier and Foudy are NHL ready at center and are good enough to push Wennberg off the roster.
     
  8. majormajor

    majormajor Registered User

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    Is it too late to lower my projected points for the Jackets to 75 points?

    Seriously I hate the way Torts does lines. But luckily he'll change things after two periods anyways.

    The fact that he didn't even mention Bjorkstrand, that he's clearly not thinking of him as a go to scorer, is disheartening. What more can the kid do? He was attached to boat anchors for most of last year and that might continue, from the looks of this.

    I was glad to hear that he's already thinking about getting Texier at center ice. I don't think Wennberg has much rope left, so he's either improved or a better player has his job.

    Some folks have suggested that this year will be a season to ease off expectations, for players to figure their games out, for the team to reboot. I don't think it will be like that. I think Torts is going to be much less forgiving of struggling players. It looks like the depth has improved and if the team is healthy there won't be much time to mess around. They'll be scrounging for every point.
     
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  9. majormajor

    majormajor Registered User

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    Dom's projection seems fair, maybe. Like me he's always checking the stats pairwise to see who is elevating / dragging whom. That gets you pretty close to what you'd get from close viewings, but he's of course going to miss things because he's not watching all of our games.

    I think if he had seen Werenski's transformation over the course of last year he wouldn't be so bearish on him. Werenski played his worst hockey as a pro in the first months of last season. His best hockey as a pro came in the final month and in the playoffs. Likewise Jones fixed his issues. They were not good for much of last year, no way around it, but I think it's foolish to expect them to be an average top pair next year. Dom expects them to be a little bit better than his projection, I expect them to be vastly better.

    His 87 point projection slides up at least a few just from that alone. Then I'm not sure how to take into account the low projections for Wennberg and Dubinsky and Korpisalo (the latter two being sub replacement). I don't think Wennberg keeps his job for more than a few weeks if he hasn't improved. I'd say the same for Dubinsky but I also would have said that last year, so I'm not sure what to expect there. Korpisalo only gets to struggle that much for that many games if Elvis is equally bad, and if Jarmo throws in the towel and doesn't get a replacement level goalie. It seems more reasonable to expect the better of the two goalies to play more games, but Dom doesn't make that adjustment.

    So obviously just playing our best players would give us a lot more points, and combined with the Werenski and Jones buff would put the median projection around the playoff bubble. Dom isn't evaluating our best roster but presumably he isn't for other clubs too. Just by a quick comparison though it looks like our projections get hurt by it more than most clubs do.
     
  10. Viqsi

    Viqsi where we're going we won't need eyes to see

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    I think, with regard to swapping out sub-replacement guys, he's making the (IMO perfectly reasonable) presumption that the "GMs don't throw you life preservers, they throw you anchors" principle applies.
     
  11. majormajor

    majormajor Registered User

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    I can get not factoring in outside replacements, the issue is he's not using our best roster. If you had one goalie that much worse you'd play them fewer games. Dubinsky is a -.5 rating, bottom of the league, and there's got to be about 15-20 forwards in the organization who would have a better rating than that. Milano, Dano, Robinson, etc... one of them has to be good for a zero rating. That's the point of evaluating players relative to "replacement level", because you get it for basically free.

    Dom's using a roster that is super conservative, as close to the previous year as possible, regardless of the statistical rating. I don't know if the lineup is his work. Honestly it looks like Porty's or someone at the Athletic. Porty rarely factors in new players and rarely pencils out someone who is done as a player. If they were a player two years ago, they're in the lineup now, that's what this looks like.
     
  12. Double-Shift Lasse

    Double-Shift Lasse Just post better

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    Maybe he figures Torts is more likely to use Dubi than one of those players.

    I do.
     
  13. thebus88

    thebus88 19/20 Columbus Blue Jackets: "It Is What It Is"

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    "Best off seasons".....?

    I don't actually agree with the points he was trying to make other than his disdain for Wennberg.

    That said, Wennberg WAS BENCHED for Nash and Dubinsky at the end of the year, and the team went on a roll it needed to make the playoffs. Then enters "unknown prospect" Texier late in the season/playoffs and its the same thing.

    Nobody is saying these guys are prettier skaters than Wennberg, but with how the team is built, they (and quite possibly Bemstrom) all bring more to the team than Wennberg currently.
     
  14. thebus88

    thebus88 19/20 Columbus Blue Jackets: "It Is What It Is"

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    Another PERFECT example why the decimals and decimalers CANNOT be trusted.

    "-.5"......"rating"....."replacement level"...….oh my.

    USAGE--- You cannot just throw any random (possibly better) offensive player on the ice in any situation and expect the team to be better from it. 15-20 forwards?? Kevin Stenlund and many others are trash and will never be NHL level players. It would be a disaster for the team to have these young "offensive" players attempting to do what Dubinsky is asked to do by the coaching staff.

    People continuously forget that Dubinsky (and the entire 4th line) actually played quite well the last decent stretch of the year and that HE HAD A HUGE IMPACT ON THE TEAM BEATING TAMPA.

    The team/organization also uses him in many promotional things and he's clearly LOVED by others in the leadership group and the entire team. He's overpaid and still on the team, like many vets on the end of their biggest career contract, because he signed and gave a commitment to this team years ago when they were looked at as NOTHING like they are now. He probably has a MUCH bigger impact on the total "transformation" of the team than most would like to acknowledge.

    His offensive role has changed, and there was a bit of a dip in his ability that more than likely was affected by an "off ice issue", that I believe has now been addressed. His conditioning/effectiveness seemed to improve after the "Vegas Incident", and during the end of last year and into the playoffs against both TB and BOS he seemed to do nothing but PROVE that he can still be quite an effective player filling ROLES that this team currently NEEDS.

    Dubi -dragging the team down- INTO the playoffs...... 4 YEARS IN A ROW!!
     
  15. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

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    Question for you. Do you think Dubinsky will be bought out after this season?
     
  16. WubbaLubbaDubDub

    WubbaLubbaDubDub And that's why I always say, Shumshumschilpiddydah

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    If Dubinsky put up the numbers Wennberg put up in the WHC you wouldn't be able to stop talking about it.

    How many players on the Jacket's were even invited to play for their countries this past off-season? He put up better numbers than multiple perennial nhl all stars in the tourny.

    Granted it's just a tournament but even Torts recognized that it could help give him the confidence boost needed to get his head on straight and perform like everyone knows he can.
     
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  17. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

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    2019-20 NHL Best Bets: Which teams to put your money on
    This guy thinks that the CBJ will exceed the O/U on points.
     
  18. blahblah

    blahblah Registered User

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    Going with 90.
     
  19. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

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    Burning questions, bold predictions for the Blue Jackets in...

    Oh my! PWI Predicting While Intoxicated
     
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  20. EspenK

    EspenK Registered User

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    I'm sticking with 88. If I have to choose the o/u I'll take the under.
     
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  21. Toe Pick

    Toe Pick Registered User

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    After watching us this preseason I'm even less optimistic than I was going into it. I think we're going to struggle to score and I just don't have any confidence in Korpisalo although I think we'll see Elvis improve as the season progresses -- especially in the second half.

    The player I'm most looking forward to watching is Texier who looks like our only competent puck transporter in the forward ranks. At this point I just hope we hang onto what picks we have left.

    85 points.
     
  22. Ice9

    Ice9 Registered User

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    Just enough to send them all home on April 3rd...
     
  23. DJAnimosity

    DJAnimosity just here to complain about the complainers Sponsor

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    85 pts, last in Metro. It will be a titanic struggle to score goals.
     
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  24. Long Live Lyle

    Long Live Lyle Registered User

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    110 points. No logical reason. Screw it.
     
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  25. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

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    Stanley Cup predictions for 2019-20

    20 writers on NHL.com made their playoff predictions. Unless I missed something, not a single one picked the CBJ to be in the top 3 in the Metropolitan Division. One lone soul picked the CBJ for the wildcard.
     

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