How many points will the 2019-20 CBJ have?

[DarkandStormy]

I admit it could be dismissed as me just plain liking the guy, but I think Nick has more to give from a scoring standpoint. I'm not sure I automatically like him with Dubois and Atkinson, and maybe Torts is convinced none of his LWs can make the switch, or he doesn't want them to.

I had penciled Nyquist in with PLD and Atkinson back in July, but Torts clearly thinks he's best served (well, vice versa, really) alongside Wennberg to start. I'm not as high on Foligno scoring and that's why I prefer him in a bottom 6 wing role, though I'm sure he'll bounce around the lineup all season. He hasn't broken 40 points in 3 of the last 4 seasons, not missing significant time in any season. When he's not shooting 14+%, he's a sub-40 point player and his ice time has started to dwindle the last couple years. He turns 32 next month, so I doubt there's another level he can get to beyond the 33 and 35 points he put up the last two years (averaging ~18 minutes/game).

Clearly, there are question marks on the left side outside of Nyquist and Foligno, and those are exacerbated if Foligno moves to the pivot because the bottom 3 centers (Jenner, Wennberg, maybe Foudy, Dubinsky/Nash) can't hack it. Per Torts, they'll try to figure out Tex's role as well - either at LW or C. Based on the Bemstrom buzz, we may see one of the RWs slide over to the left side, which would then bump a Foligno or Jenner to the bottom line if that happens.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

With Panarin and Bobrovsky in tow (assuming they didn’t sign Gustav Nyquist afterwards), the Blue Jackets would be projected to be the third-best team in their division with 98 points and have a 75 percent chance at making the playoffs. Instead, they’re at 87 points with a 26 percent postseason chance. Not pretty, but not Ottawa-bad by any means. They can still fight for a playoff spot – last year’s Islanders proved that and more – and there will be no team hungrier this year than Columbus. They should be in the hunt.

It doesn’t look like a pretty one, especially in net as the team decided to replace Bobrovsky with internal solutions, a bold gambit that likely leaves Columbus with some of the most questionable goaltending in the league. That could be the difference between squeaking into the playoffs or not – or imploding entirely into the league’s basement.

2019-20 NHL Season Preview: Columbus Blue Jackets

 

[CBJx614]

Would rather see Bemstrom and even Milano in top 9 wing roles rather than Foligno. Also, call me crazy, but give Foudy 9 games in a middle 6 C role and bench Wennberg for that time. And then I guess pray one of Nash/Dubinsky becomes slightly contributive on the 4th line and maybe that line won't be relegated to 6 minutes a game.

So now we're benching him before the season even starts now? Wennberg arguably had one of the best off-seasons of anyone on the team from an outsiders prospective, and we're gonna bench him for a kid whose best known for his speed.

I get it, you don't like him. But let's wait until camp and preseason before we start benching nhl players for unknown prospects.

 

[MAHJ71]

2019-20 NHL Season Preview: Columbus Blue Jackets

Yeah, pretty depressing reading that.

Then again his model, and most others didn't give us a chance against Tampa Bay... if there is one flaw with his model its sample size/lack of data to go off potential young studs in Bemstrom, Texier, Elvis, etc.. Which he does point out in the article. So it is fair..

 

[DarkandStormy]

So now we're benching him before the season even starts now? Wennberg arguably had one of the best off-seasons of anyone on the team from an outsiders prospective, and we're gonna bench him for a kid whose best known for his speed.

I get it, you don't like him. But let's wait until camp and preseason before we start benching nhl players for unknown prospects.

Are we ignoring his atrocious even strength performance over the last 75 games he played and imagining it's still 2016-2017 or....

 

[majormajor]

Yeah, pretty depressing reading that.

Then again his model, and most others didn't give us a chance against Tampa Bay... if there is one flaw with his model its sample size/lack of data to go off potential young studs in Bemstrom, Texier, Elvis, etc.. Which he does point out in the article. So it is fair..

Dom gave us 25% chance against Tampa, not bad at all.

He also projected us to be near the top of the league in the regular season last year.

 

[CBJx614]

Are we ignoring his atrocious even strength performance over the last 75 games he played and imagining it's still 2016-2017 or....

Even with his abysmal season he was only -1. Meaning that teams aren't scoring that much when he's out there. If he's putting up 30-40 pts, eats PK minutes and is still a plus player than there's absolutely no problem with him keeping on the roster as a 3C.

Id love to see Dubois, Jenner, Wennberg,Nash as our centers with Texier being the next in line for injuries and fill in if Wennberg doesn't bounce back.

This team should have enough skilled players that Foudy should be forced back into the jrs for one more season. Hannikainen, TFW, Robinson and Stenlund will be competing with Tex, Bemstrom and Milano for one of the spots on the big club over foudy.


With all that being said I'll happily eat all the crow in the world if both Texier and Foudy are NHL ready at center and are good enough to push Wennberg off the roster.

 

[majormajor]

Torts in his annual talk with Portzline said he's going into the season with these lines in mind

Foligno-Dubois-Atkinson
Nyquist-Wennberg-??
???-Jenner-Anderson

Said he wants to give Texier a chance at center this year, especially if Wennberg struggles early. He likes Nyquist. And they're going to try to get more out of Foligno this year.

Is it too late to lower my projected points for the Jackets to 75 points?

Seriously I hate the way Torts does lines. But luckily he'll change things after two periods anyways.

The fact that he didn't even mention Bjorkstrand, that he's clearly not thinking of him as a go to scorer, is disheartening. What more can the kid do? He was attached to boat anchors for most of last year and that might continue, from the looks of this.

I was glad to hear that he's already thinking about getting Texier at center ice. I don't think Wennberg has much rope left, so he's either improved or a better player has his job.

Some folks have suggested that this year will be a season to ease off expectations, for players to figure their games out, for the team to reboot. I don't think it will be like that. I think Torts is going to be much less forgiving of struggling players. It looks like the depth has improved and if the team is healthy there won't be much time to mess around. They'll be scrounging for every point.

 

[majormajor]

Dom's projection seems fair, maybe. Like me he's always checking the stats pairwise to see who is elevating / dragging whom. That gets you pretty close to what you'd get from close viewings, but he's of course going to miss things because he's not watching all of our games.

I think if he had seen Werenski's transformation over the course of last year he wouldn't be so bearish on him. Werenski played his worst hockey as a pro in the first months of last season. His best hockey as a pro came in the final month and in the playoffs. Likewise Jones fixed his issues. They were not good for much of last year, no way around it, but I think it's foolish to expect them to be an average top pair next year. Dom expects them to be a little bit better than his projection, I expect them to be vastly better.

His 87 point projection slides up at least a few just from that alone. Then I'm not sure how to take into account the low projections for Wennberg and Dubinsky and Korpisalo (the latter two being sub replacement). I don't think Wennberg keeps his job for more than a few weeks if he hasn't improved. I'd say the same for Dubinsky but I also would have said that last year, so I'm not sure what to expect there. Korpisalo only gets to struggle that much for that many games if Elvis is equally bad, and if Jarmo throws in the towel and doesn't get a replacement level goalie. It seems more reasonable to expect the better of the two goalies to play more games, but Dom doesn't make that adjustment.

So obviously just playing our best players would give us a lot more points, and combined with the Werenski and Jones buff would put the median projection around the playoff bubble. Dom isn't evaluating our best roster but presumably he isn't for other clubs too. Just by a quick comparison though it looks like our projections get hurt by it more than most clubs do.

 

[Viqsi]

Dom's projection seems fair, maybe. Like me he's always checking the stats pairwise to see who is elevating / dragging whom. That gets you pretty close to what you'd get from close viewings, but he's of course going to miss things because he's not watching all of our games.

I think if he had seen Werenski's transformation over the course of last year he wouldn't be so bearish on him. Werenski played his worst hockey as a pro in the first months of last season. His best hockey as a pro came in the final month and in the playoffs. Likewise Jones fixed his issues. They were not good for much of last year, no way around it, but I think it's foolish to expect them to be an average top pair next year. Dom expects them to be a little bit better than his projection, I expect them to be vastly better.

His 87 point projection slides up at least a few just from that alone. Then I'm not sure how to take into account the low projections for Wennberg and Dubinsky and Korpisalo (the latter two being sub replacement). I don't think Wennberg keeps his job for more than a few weeks if he hasn't improved. I'd say the same for Dubinsky but I also would have said that last year, so I'm not sure what to expect there. Korpisalo only gets to struggle that much for that many games if Elvis is equally bad, and if Jarmo throws in the towel and doesn't get a replacement level goalie. It seems more reasonable to expect the better of the two goalies to play more games, but Dom doesn't make that adjustment.

So obviously just playing our best players would give us a lot more points, and combined with the Werenski and Jones buff would put the median projection around the playoff bubble. Dom isn't evaluating our best roster but presumably he isn't for other clubs too. Just by a quick comparison though it looks like our projections get hurt by it more than most clubs do.

I think, with regard to swapping out sub-replacement guys, he's making the (IMO perfectly reasonable) presumption that the "GMs don't throw you life preservers, they throw you anchors" principle applies.

 

[majormajor]

I think, with regard to swapping out sub-replacement guys, he's making the (IMO perfectly reasonable) presumption that the "GMs don't throw you life preservers, they throw you anchors" principle applies.

I can get not factoring in outside replacements, the issue is he's not using our best roster. If you had one goalie that much worse you'd play them fewer games. Dubinsky is a -.5 rating, bottom of the league, and there's got to be about 15-20 forwards in the organization who would have a better rating than that. Milano, Dano, Robinson, etc... one of them has to be good for a zero rating. That's the point of evaluating players relative to "replacement level", because you get it for basically free.

Dom's using a roster that is super conservative, as close to the previous year as possible, regardless of the statistical rating. I don't know if the lineup is his work. Honestly it looks like Porty's or someone at the Athletic. Porty rarely factors in new players and rarely pencils out someone who is done as a player. If they were a player two years ago, they're in the lineup now, that's what this looks like.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I can get not factoring in outside replacements, the issue is he's not using our best roster. If you had one goalie that much worse you'd play them fewer games. Dubinsky is a -.5 rating, bottom of the league, and there's got to be about 15-20 forwards in the organization who would have a better rating than that. Milano, Dano, Robinson, etc... one of them has to be good for a zero rating. That's the point of evaluating players relative to "replacement level", because you get it for basically free.

Dom's using a roster that is super conservative, as close to the previous year as possible, regardless of the statistical rating. I don't know if the lineup is his work. Honestly it looks like Porty's or someone at the Athletic. Porty rarely factors in new players and rarely pencils out someone who is done as a player. If they were a player two years ago, they're in the lineup now, that's what this looks like.

Maybe he figures Torts is more likely to use Dubi than one of those players.

I do.

 

[thebus88]

So now we're benching him before the season even starts now? Wennberg arguably had one of the best off-seasons of anyone on the team from an outsiders prospective, and we're gonna bench him for a kid whose best known for his speed.

I get it, you don't like him. But let's wait until camp and preseason before we start benching nhl players for unknown prospects.

"Best off seasons".....?

I don't actually agree with the points he was trying to make other than his disdain for Wennberg.

That said, Wennberg WAS BENCHED for Nash and Dubinsky at the end of the year, and the team went on a roll it needed to make the playoffs. Then enters "unknown prospect" Texier late in the season/playoffs and its the same thing.

Nobody is saying these guys are prettier skaters than Wennberg, but with how the team is built, they (and quite possibly Bemstrom) all bring more to the team than Wennberg currently.

 

[thebus88]

I can get not factoring in outside replacements, the issue is he's not using our best roster. Dubinsky is a -.5 rating, bottom of the league, and there's got to be about 15-20 forwards in the organization who would have a better rating than that. Milano, Dano, Robinson, etc... one of them has to be good for a zero rating. That's the point of evaluating players relative to "replacement level", because you get it for basically free.

Another PERFECT example why the decimals and decimalers CANNOT be trusted.

"-.5"......"rating"....."replacement level"...….oh my.

USAGE--- You cannot just throw any random (possibly better) offensive player on the ice in any situation and expect the team to be better from it. 15-20 forwards?? Kevin Stenlund and many others are trash and will never be NHL level players. It would be a disaster for the team to have these young "offensive" players attempting to do what Dubinsky is asked to do by the coaching staff.

Maybe he figures Torts is more likely to use Dubi than one of those players.

I do.

People continuously forget that Dubinsky (and the entire 4th line) actually played quite well the last decent stretch of the year and that HE HAD A HUGE IMPACT ON THE TEAM BEATING TAMPA.

The team/organization also uses him in many promotional things and he's clearly LOVED by others in the leadership group and the entire team. He's overpaid and still on the team, like many vets on the end of their biggest career contract, because he signed and gave a commitment to this team years ago when they were looked at as NOTHING like they are now. He probably has a MUCH bigger impact on the total "transformation" of the team than most would like to acknowledge.

His offensive role has changed, and there was a bit of a dip in his ability that more than likely was affected by an "off ice issue", that I believe has now been addressed. His conditioning/effectiveness seemed to improve after the "Vegas Incident", and during the end of last year and into the playoffs against both TB and BOS he seemed to do nothing but PROVE that he can still be quite an effective player filling ROLES that this team currently NEEDS.

Dubi -dragging the team down- INTO the playoffs...... 4 YEARS IN A ROW!!

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Another PERFECT example why the decimals and decimalers CANNOT be trusted.

"-.5"......"rating"....."replacement level"...….oh my.

USAGE--- You cannot just throw any random (possibly better) offensive player on the ice in any situation and expect the team to be better from it. 15-20 forwards?? Kevin Stenlund and many others are trash and will never be NHL level players. It would be a disaster for the team to have these young "offensive" players attempting to do what Dubinsky is asked to do by the coaching staff.



People continuously forget that Dubinsky (and the entire 4th line) actually played quite well the last decent stretch of the year and that HE HAD A HUGE IMPACT ON THE TEAM BEATING TAMPA.

The team/organization also uses him in many promotional things and he's clearly LOVED by others in the leadership group and the entire team. He's overpaid and still on the team, like many vets on the end of their biggest career contract, because he signed and gave a commitment to this team years ago when they were looked at as NOTHING like they are now. He probably has a MUCH bigger impact on the total "transformation" of the team than most would like to acknowledge.

His offensive role has changed, and there was a bit of a dip in his ability that more than likely was affected by an "off ice issue", that I believe has now been addressed. His conditioning/effectiveness seemed to improve after the "Vegas Incident", and during the end of last year and into the playoffs against both TB and BOS he seemed to do nothing but PROVE that he can still be quite an effective player filling ROLES that this team currently NEEDS.

Dubi -dragging the team down- INTO the playoffs...... 4 YEARS IN A ROW!!

Question for you. Do you think Dubinsky will be bought out after this season?

 

[CBJx614]

"Best off seasons".....?

I don't actually agree with the points he was trying to make other than his disdain for Wennberg.

That said, Wennberg WAS BENCHED for Nash and Dubinsky at the end of the year, and the team went on a roll it needed to make the playoffs. Then enters "unknown prospect" Texier late in the season/playoffs and its the same thing.

Nobody is saying these guys are prettier skaters than Wennberg, but with how the team is built, they (and quite possibly Bemstrom) all bring more to the team than Wennberg currently.

If Dubinsky put up the numbers Wennberg put up in the WHC you wouldn't be able to stop talking about it.

How many players on the Jacket's were even invited to play for their countries this past off-season? He put up better numbers than multiple perennial nhl all stars in the tourny.

Granted it's just a tournament but even Torts recognized that it could help give him the confidence boost needed to get his head on straight and perform like everyone knows he can.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Columbus Blue Jackets: (Over 83.5)
I’m not as confident in this one as the rest, given what they’ve lost, but there’s still value here as there was a strong foundation laid out aside from Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky. This team has depth and a strong blue line, it’s just a matter of whether the unproven goaltending can hold up over a full season. I’m not holding my breath, but I still believe there’s enough here for a point total in the mid-to-high 80’s, rather than the lower range

2019-20 NHL Best Bets: Which teams to put your money on
This guy thinks that the CBJ will exceed the O/U on points.

 

[blahblah]

Going with 90.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Burning questions, bold predictions for the Blue Jackets in...

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Now might be a good time to buy stock in the Blue Jackets.
The Hockey News has them finishing last in the Metropolitan Division. Vegas (the tacky city, not the Golden Knights) has them as 65-1 odds to win the Stanley Cup. Almost nobody has them making the playoffs. Coach John Tortorella will no doubt show up on many “first to be fired” lists.

AP Portzline: I believe the reports of this club’s demise have been greatly overstated. I’m going with 99 points (one more than last season) and third in the Metro, two spots higher than last season.

ALukan: Four or more of the following players clear 60 points this season: Atkinson, Dubois, Nyquist, Anderson, Wennberg, Texier, Jones.

Oh my! PWI Predicting While Intoxicated

 

[EspenK]

I'm sticking with 88. If I have to choose the o/u I'll take the under.

 

[Toe Pick]

After watching us this preseason I'm even less optimistic than I was going into it. I think we're going to struggle to score and I just don't have any confidence in Korpisalo although I think we'll see Elvis improve as the season progresses -- especially in the second half.

The player I'm most looking forward to watching is Texier who looks like our only competent puck transporter in the forward ranks. At this point I just hope we hang onto what picks we have left.

85 points.

 

[Ice9]

Just enough to send them all home on April 3rd...

 

[DJA]

85 pts, last in Metro. It will be a titanic struggle to score goals.

 

[Long Live Lyle]

110 points. No logical reason. Screw it.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Stanley Cup predictions for 2019-20

20 writers on NHL.com made their playoff predictions. Unless I missed something, not a single one picked the CBJ to be in the top 3 in the Metropolitan Division. One lone soul picked the CBJ for the wildcard.