How many points will the 2019-20 CBJ have?

How many points will the 2019-20 CBJ have?


  • Total voters
    91
  • Poll closed .

majormajor

Registered User
Jun 23, 2018
24,179
28,646
You voted in the 94-102 group. While that doesn’t necessarily mean 98, you believe in this team.

I'm on record saying 96 pts (95?), but I've maintained that it all depends on goaltending, which I don't like to make predictions on. I'm not sure what you mean by "believe", I like most of this team, but I certainly don't believe in this goaltending. I was an advocate of signing Robin Lehner. I've maintained that I don't know what to expect from this goalie duo, it could be anything for all I know. I even made a handy little chart to show off the range of outcomes and how it depends on goaltending:

Save PercentageGoals AgainstGoal DifferentialPoints Projection
0.9220050107
0.915212.537.5103
0.912252599
0.905237.512.595
0.9250091
0.895262.5-12.587
0.89275-2583
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

CBJWerenski8

Formerly CBJWennberg10 (RIP Kivi)
Jun 13, 2009
42,076
24,004
I'm on record saying 96 pts (95?), but I've maintained that it all depends on goaltending, which I don't like to make predictions on. I'm not sure what you mean by "believe", I like most of this team, but I certainly don't believe in this goaltending. I was an advocate of signing Robin Lehner. I've maintained that I don't know what to expect from this goalie duo, it could be anything for all I know. I even made a handy little chart to show off the range of outcomes and how it depends on goaltending:

I think this is fair, and I like your chart. I have less faith than you do (which you openly admit is up to goaltending, which I agree with) but I can see where you're coming from.
 

Toe Pick

Registered User
Jun 13, 2011
1,408
1,911
Columbus, OH
Comparing this year’s team to 2016 sounds logical until you deep dive it.

That 2016 team had a version of Wennberg as our second leading scorer with 59 points.

Brandon Saad as our third leading scorer with 53 points.

Sam Gagner as our fifth leading scorer with 50 points.

Scott Hartnell as our 9th leading scorer with 37 points.

Foligno and Dubinsky were also top 10 scorers on that team.

And of course, as mentioned, had Vezina Bob that year.

That team had five player with 50+ points and eight players with 40+. Heck, we only had six pre-deadline last year with 40+ and were obviously top heavy with Panarin.

At this stage I can’t confidently find any 50 point locks and only four guys who will be locks for 40+ in Atkinson, Jones, Nyquist, and Werenski — assuming healthy years.

I wavered on Nyquist as Torts has to actually play the guy but came to conclude he will have no choice.

I was tempted to put Anderson in that group since he did it last year and is in a contract year but I can just as easily see him in that 30 point range.

Dubois has to show he can do it without Panarin. Bjorkstrand has to show he can do it for 82 games. Jenner is a 30 point guy. So is Foligno at this point in his career. Wennberg I have zero confidence in. And then there is the rookies in Texier and Bemstrom — we may get one to hit thirty points.

To have ANY shot to compete this team needs a couple 50+ years from the 40 point locks (doable with Atkinson and Jones) and more importantly need to find career years from Dubois, Bjorkstrand, Anderson and have a rookie hit 40+. Wennberg needs to at least be a 40 point guy too.

Then of course there is the goaltending. Need a lot more than just a career .906 save % out of Korpisalo.

The fact I’m only talking forty to fifty point years is a very telling sign of just how much we lack top end talent in the forward ranks.
 

EDM

Registered User
Mar 8, 2008
6,221
2,003
I think that over the course of the season it is possible that the goalie situation can improve with both Korpi and Elvis. But I do no see where any worthwhile improvement int eh offense will come from. And poor offense will make average goal tending look much worse than it.
 

Kevs Security

inmateMack/CanesMack/LeafMack/elMacko
May 28, 2018
1,783
2,188
Toronto, Canada
They'll pick up a fella like Domingue soon enough. Then hopefully this former C-grade backup can redeem himself as a starter like guys like Kuemper, Anderson, Elliot, Greiss, etc. Jack Campbell would be a low risk bet, I think. Go for it Jarmo!
 

majormajor

Registered User
Jun 23, 2018
24,179
28,646
Comparing this year’s team to 2016 sounds logical until you deep dive it.

That 2016 team had a version of Wennberg as our second leading scorer with 59 points.

Brandon Saad as our third leading scorer with 53 points.

Sam Gagner as our fifth leading scorer with 50 points.

Scott Hartnell as our 9th leading scorer with 37 points.

Foligno and Dubinsky were also top 10 scorers on that team.

And of course, as mentioned, had Vezina Bob that year.

That team had five player with 50+ points and eight players with 40+. Heck, we only had six pre-deadline last year with 40+ and were obviously top heavy with Panarin.

At this stage I can’t confidently find any 50 point locks and only four guys who will be locks for 40+ in Atkinson, Jones, Nyquist, and Werenski — assuming healthy years.

I wavered on Nyquist as Torts has to actually play the guy but came to conclude he will have no choice.

I was tempted to put Anderson in that group since he did it last year and is in a contract year but I can just as easily see him in that 30 point range.

Dubois has to show he can do it without Panarin. Bjorkstrand has to show he can do it for 82 games. Jenner is a 30 point guy. So is Foligno at this point in his career. Wennberg I have zero confidence in. And then there is the rookies in Texier and Bemstrom — we may get one to hit thirty points.

To have ANY shot to compete this team needs a couple 50+ years from the 40 point locks (doable with Atkinson and Jones) and more importantly need to find career years from Dubois, Bjorkstrand, Anderson and have a rookie hit 40+. Wennberg needs to at least be a 40 point guy too.

Then of course there is the goaltending. Need a lot more than just a career .906 save % out of Korpisalo.

The fact I’m only talking forty to fifty point years is a very telling sign of just how much we lack top end talent in the forward ranks.

  • You're overkilling on what the club needs "to have any shot of compete", by a country mile. If we get team save percentage of .906 AND have 40+ point seasons from Wennberg and Texier, and career seasons from Anderson (48+ pts), Bjorkstrand (41+ pts), and Dubois (62+ pts), two 40+ and two 50+ from Atkinson, Jones, Nyquist, and Werenski, then that team is absolutely f***ing loaded. They might win the division with those numbers. That's 9 guys with 40+ pts, the average club has 5 or 6! Carolina had 4 40+ pt guys last year, playing in front of McBackup, and they competed all the way to the conference finals.
  • You're also making an argument about 2016-17 that is nothing but hindsight bias. Yes that team had 5 50+ point scorers, and yes our current team doesn't have players that are locks to score 50+. But who was a lock to score 50+ on that team? The year prior, only Atkinson and Saad had 50+ pts, and in the two years since then, none of those players have scored 50 pts again except Atkinson, who did it once. I think the talent level of the skaters on the current team is far better. The goaltending is the crux.
 
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Double-Shift Lasse

Just post better
Dec 22, 2004
33,346
14,024
Exurban Cbus
I didn't read it that way.

upload_2019-10-7_17-18-54.jpeg
 
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Toe Pick

Registered User
Jun 13, 2011
1,408
1,911
Columbus, OH
  • That's 9 guys with 40+ pts, the average club has 5 or 6! Carolina had 4 40+ pt guys last year, playing in front of McBackup, and they competed all the way to the conference finals.

How about we take a look at ALL the playoff teams instead of just cherry-picking Carolina (nice try btw):

Tampa: Nine 40+ guys -- THREE of those are 90+ guys
Calgary: Six 40+ guys -- FOUR of those are 70+ guys
Boston: Six 40+ guys -- FOUR of those are 70+ guys
Washington: Eight 40+ guys -- FOUR Of those are 70+ guys
Islanders: Four 40+ guys -- ONE of those are 60+ guys
San Jose: Nine 40+ guys -- FIVE of those are 60+ guys
Toronto: Eight 40+ guys -- FOUR of those are 70+ guys
Nashville: Six 40+ guys -- ONE of those are 60+ guys
Pittsburgh: Five 40+ guys -- FOUR of those are 70+ guys
Winnipeg: Six 40+ guys -- THREE of those are 80+ guys
Carolina: Four 40+ guys -- TWO of those are 70+ guys
St. Louis: Five 40+ guys -- TWO of those are 60+ guys
Columbus: Six 40+ guys -- THREE of those are 60+ guys
Dallas: Four 40+ guys -- TWO of those are 70+ guys
Vegas: Seven 40+ guys -- ZERO of those are 60+ guys
Colorado: Six 40+ guys -- THREE of those are 70+ guys

So on average the playoff teams from last year had SIX 40+ guys. Out of those, there is an average of THREE (rounding up from 2.8) 60+ point scorers per team.

My forecast called for NINE 40+ guys with ONE 60+ player (Dubois career year) which is the very definition of scoring by committee since we don't have top end forwards (70+ guys). If you call that "overshooting by a country mile" to compete for a playoff spot given the numbers above then you're once again out to lunch.
 

majormajor

Registered User
Jun 23, 2018
24,179
28,646
How about we take a look at ALL the playoff teams instead of just cherry-picking Carolina (nice try btw):

Tampa: Nine 40+ guys -- THREE of those are 90+ guys
Calgary: Six 40+ guys -- FOUR of those are 70+ guys
Boston: Six 40+ guys -- FOUR of those are 70+ guys
Washington: Eight 40+ guys -- FOUR Of those are 70+ guys
Islanders: Four 40+ guys -- ONE of those are 60+ guys
San Jose: Nine 40+ guys -- FIVE of those are 60+ guys
Toronto: Eight 40+ guys -- FOUR of those are 70+ guys
Nashville: Six 40+ guys -- ONE of those are 60+ guys
Pittsburgh: Five 40+ guys -- FOUR of those are 70+ guys
Winnipeg: Six 40+ guys -- THREE of those are 80+ guys
Carolina: Four 40+ guys -- TWO of those are 70+ guys
St. Louis: Five 40+ guys -- TWO of those are 60+ guys
Columbus: Six 40+ guys -- THREE of those are 60+ guys
Dallas: Four 40+ guys -- TWO of those are 70+ guys
Vegas: Seven 40+ guys -- ZERO of those are 60+ guys
Colorado: Six 40+ guys -- THREE of those are 70+ guys

So on average the playoff teams from last year had SIX 40+ guys. Out of those, there is an average of THREE (rounding up from 2.8) 60+ point scorers per team.

My forecast called for NINE 40+ guys with ONE 60+ player (Dubois career year) which is the very definition of scoring by committee since we don't have top end forwards (70+ guys). If you call that "overshooting by a country mile" to compete for a playoff spot given the numbers above then you're once again out to lunch.

Carolina is an example of a team that competed for and won a playoff spot with 4 40+ pt guys, less than half as many as you said the Jackets would need just in order to compete for a spot. That's not cherrypicking, it's just a good counterargument to show that there are many ways to win.

I applaud you doing the extra research but it looks to me like it backs up my argument. The reason I know it would be overshooting is because I just did goals / assists / points projections for the whole lineup, and I know that even with just one 60+ pt guy, two 50-60 pt guys and six more 40-50 pt guys, you're loaded for bear. Go ahead and do the goal projections for the whole team, with those assumptions, and try to come up with total goals that are not above league average.
 

majormajor

Registered User
Jun 23, 2018
24,179
28,646
What are you talking about? The whole point of this exercise is to be above league average and make the playoffs.

Let's back up a second. You were saying that x level of scoring is the bare minimum for the team to have any shot at competing. It can't be the bare minimum if it's above average (or 20+ goals above league average, which is about what your numbers probably work out to).

So if we are scoring above league average, which is what I was forecasting, we have a very good chance of competing for the playoffs.

That's different than what you said before. Anyways, yes if we get all of that scoring we'll have a very good chance of getting a playoff spot, and possibly a division title.
 
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Toe Pick

Registered User
Jun 13, 2011
1,408
1,911
Columbus, OH
Let's back up a second. You were saying that x level of scoring is the bare minimum for the team to have any shot at competing.

I said to have ANY shot at competing — ie playoffs which apparently I need to spell out for the cheap seats.

And I certainly stand by it given the cold hard numbers provided as we aren’t going to defend our way into the playoffs with
.833 save percentages.
 

EspenK

Registered User
Sep 25, 2011
15,581
4,147
Your logical fallacy is special pleading

Generally, if there's a problem with the goaltending, the optimal solution is to, y'know, fix the goaltending, not turn the offense into a juggernaut.

Neither appears to be a realistic alternative. I'd guess making the offense better would easier. How you gonna fix the g-tending? No good UFA's available and I doubt teams want to trade a good backup.
 

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