how many goals does Auston Matthews score this year?

[nbwingsfan]

But why are you using a 20 game sample size, when his pace is based on a 60 something game sample size? No need to answer, we both know why.

Because it’s showing how pace keeps going down the more you play. Take anyone’s pace at 20 games and then their pace at 60 games. You’ll see a drop for a vast number of NHL players.

Which you can also use the 60 games sample if you’d like... where he paced for a whole 2 more goals than I’m predicting.

 

[Sundinisagod]

Because it’s showing how pace keeps going down the more you play. Take anyone’s pace at 20 games and then their pace at 60 games. You’ll see a drop for a vast number of NHL players.

Which you can also use the 60 games sample if you’d like... where he paced for a whole 2 more goals than I’m predicting.

But we're talking about a player who played 82 games in his rookie season and scored 40 goals. He then played 60 something games the next 2 seasons and paced 45 goals. I fail to see any relevance to a 20 game sample size, when his pace is already established using much larger sample sizes. My prediction is not based on the first 20 games of the season. That wouldnt make any sense in trying to arrive at a realistic projection.

 

[nbwingsfan]

But we're talking about a player who played 82 games in his rookie season and scored 40 goals. He then played 60 something games the next 2 seasons and paced 45 goals. I fail to see any relevance to a 20 game sample size, when his pace is already established using much larger sample sizes. My prediction is not based on the first 20 games of the season. That wouldnt make any sense in trying to arrive at a realistic projection.

It shows that it’s far from a guarantee that Matthews would even keep that same 45 goal pace. If at 20 games he’s pacing for 70, and then at 65 games he’s pacing for 45, what’s not to say that if he played a full 82, his pace wouldn’t drop again and he ends up with 40 (or the 43 I predict)?

Only because this is HF am I not surprised to see a poster getting so worked up over someone predicting a player falls TWO goals short of his pace

I don’t see too many Tampa fans getting worked up if I predicted 36G and 120pts for Kucherov or 95pts for Gaudreau and Calgary freaking out.

 

[Sundinisagod]

It shows that it’s far from a guarantee that Matthews would even keep that same 45 goal pace. If at 20 games he’s pacing for 70, and then at 65 he’s pacing for 45, what’s not to say that if he played a full 82, his pace wouldn’t drop again and he ends up with 40 (or the 43 I predict)?

Not because this is HF am I not surprised to see a poster getting so worked up over someone predicting a player falls TWO goals short of his pace

I don’t see too many Tampa fans getting worked up if I predicted 36G and 120pts for Kucherov or 95pts for Gaudreau

I'm hardly worked up, my issue is the logic (or lack there of) you are attempting to use. The fact that Matthew's scored 40 goals in his rookie season, is a strong indicator that he can maintain goal scoring pace. Later, talk to ya after the season.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I'm hardly worked up, my issue is the logic (or lack there of) you are attempting to use. The fact that Matthew's scored 40 goals in his rookie season, is a strong indicator that he can maintain goal scoring pace. Later, talk to ya after the season.

Yes he can, which is why I’m predicting a very good 43G season. Which is right around his “pace” of the last two seasons.

 

[Juicy Pop]

30g/60p season; let's keep up the meme that Dubas isn't even fit to run a Dairy Queen.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Lots

 

[Spilot23]

I said 60 or more.. On pace for 164 goals.

 

[DanM]

A full season of health.... I see him hitting 50-55 goals and 50 assists.

Talent is no question, the health is.

 

[DanM]

I appreciate those 6 people who think he's going to hit 60

Although I think nobody hits 60, because it is so damn hard in todays game, if healthy, with his talent, he is one of the VERY few who can.

A healthy Matthews is the best goal scorer in the game in my opinion (considering Ovie will eventually slow down) I am also very impressed with his overall game right now, he is becoming a monster.

 

[CujosMask]

Looking for the 100 or more option

 

[Kelly]

Him on his off wing on the PP with an improved one timer could prove deadly. If he's healthy he will no doubt be in the Richard race.

I'm gonna say 55g pace, not gonna bother guessing if he stays healthy or not.

 

[Regal]

Because it’s showing how pace keeps going down the more you play. Take anyone’s pace at 20 games and then their pace at 60 games. You’ll see a drop for a vast number of NHL players.

Which you can also use the 60 games sample if you’d like... where he paced for a whole 2 more goals than I’m predicting.

This simply isn't true. Players regress to the mean over more games, but roughly as many players start hot as start cold. Otherwise we would see scoring go down significantly as the season wears on.

 

[Face Of Bear]

He'll be closer to 60 than 50. HF will be in full spin mode to write it off

 

[ijuka]

Because it’s showing how pace keeps going down the more you play. Take anyone’s pace at 20 games and then their pace at 60 games. You’ll see a drop for a vast number of NHL players.

Uh, not a drop. But a reduction in variance. It can also mean a significant increase in production.

But yeah, I'm not expecting Matthews to score 164 goals.

 

[tntkid]

35 goals.

He will not make 80 games in a season with his history of injuries.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

For anyone that's a fan of the eye test. Any time you've watched Matthews, he's been putting the puck in the net more often than anyone else you've watched on the ice going even further back than Ovechkin.

Best goal scorer in the league. Whether or not he gets the rocket is going to depend, like every year, how much PP time the Leafs get and how the Leafs decide to structure their PP1/PP2.

 

[Leonhard Euler]

For anyone that's a fan of the eye test. Any time you've watched Matthews, he's been putting the puck in the net more often than anyone else you've watched on the ice going even further back than Ovechkin.

Best goal scorer in the league. Whether or not he gets the rocket is going to depend, like every year, how much PP time the Leafs get and how the Leafs decide to structure their PP1/PP2.

Nope.

 

[Spirit of 67]

As has been pointed out, health will be the big thing.

So, if he stays healthy, I think he really goes off. Voted high, 55 - 59. .
Solid Richard contender.

 

[Hustlr]

obviously 164

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Nope.

Who scored more often on the ice?

 

[robsenz]

93

 

[bobholly39]

Matthews may be the one player i'm most excited about seeing play this year in a full healthy season. I want to see what he can do in 82 games.

His season last year ended up being extremely disappointing compared to how he started in October. Not a bad season of course - but in October he seemed like the man to beat, pacing out even higher than what Kucherov did. I'm not saying he can keep such a pace for 82 games - but in a season where injury doesn't come in and break his momentum, i'm really curious to see what type of #s he can put together.

I voted 50-54.

 

[Fugazy]

44 goals. Book it.

 

[The Macho King]

164.