how many goals does Auston Matthews score this year?

how many goals does Matthews score this year?


  • Total voters
    527

bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
22,078
14,589

You're a big hypocrite. All summer long you've been bashing the Leafs for their contract to Matthews, and how it's raising the price for other RFA's.

I think if he scores 164 goals, he's probably worth the money they paid him, no?
 

JasonRoseEh

Registered User
Oct 23, 2018
2,933
2,346
I'm hardly worked up, my issue is the logic (or lack there of) you are attempting to use. The fact that Matthew's scored 40 goals in his rookie season, is a strong indicator that he can maintain goal scoring pace. Later, talk to ya after the season.
Scoring pace means nothing in the grand scheme of things, you can't project it and hold it as remotely accurate. Ovechkin was on a torrid 65 goal pace for nearly half of last year and got 51. It's hard to continually score throughout an entire season and it's even harder when you can't stay healthy throughout an entire season.

A healthy Matthews on that Leafs team can surely get 50-55 but there's big IF's there.
 

nbwingsfan

Registered User
Dec 13, 2009
20,849
14,558
This simply isn't true. Players regress to the mean over more games, but roughly as many players start hot as start cold. Otherwise we would see scoring go down significantly as the season wears on.

So his mean is around a 45 goal pace? I’ll stick with my 43goal prediction then.
 
Jul 10, 2003
13,937
1,067
KW
Scoring pace means nothing in the grand scheme of things, you can't project it and hold it as remotely accurate. Ovechkin was on a torrid 65 goal pace for nearly half of last year and got 51. It's hard to continually score throughout an entire season and it's even harder when you can't stay healthy throughout an entire season.

A healthy Matthews on that Leafs team can surely get 50-55 but there's big IF's there.

When you have sample sizes of 82, 62, and 68 games I think you can project to a "remotely accurate" number, alongside consideration of other factors. But if you use a 20 game or 30 something game sample size, I'd agree it's not very useful in making projections. But your projection for Matthews is very close to mine so I'm not sure how you arrived at that any differently than I did?
 

The Macho King

Back* to Back** World Champion
Jun 22, 2011
48,609
28,846
You're a big hypocrite. All summer long you've been bashing the Leafs for their contract to Matthews, and how it's raising the price for other RFA's.

I think if he scores 164 goals, he's probably worth the money they paid him, no?
Huh?
 

Soliloquy of a Dogge

I love you, Boots
Aug 8, 2012
40,873
5,512
San Diego, CA
As has been pointed out, health will be the big thing.

So, if he stays healthy, I think he really goes off. Voted high, 55 - 59. .
Solid Richard contender.
Consistency is just as big of an issue.

He has problems maintaining his production. Other top players don't to the extent that Matthews does.

55 goals 40 assists seems like a good top end for him if a lot of things go right.
 

JasonRoseEh

Registered User
Oct 23, 2018
2,933
2,346
When you have sample sizes of 82, 62, and 68 games I think you can project to a "remotely accurate" number, alongside consideration of other factors. But if you use a 20 game or 30 something game sample size, I'd agree it's not very useful in making projections. But your projection for Matthews is very close to mine so I'm not sure how you arrived at that any differently than I did?
There's projections and there's doing it and until now Matthews has never done it. Again, if Ovechkin only played 60 games last year he would've been projected at a near 60 goal pace or slightly higher, he finished with 51. An 82 game season takes it's tolls and affords more room for peaks and valleys with production. Most goal scorers are streaky, that's just how it is and putting Matthews at Ovechkin's level or above it is just ridiculous at this point because he hasn't produced at the same level.

And to add, saying this doesn't mean anyone hates Matthews, I think the kid is awesome and has all the potential to do it, but the truth is he hasn't and putting him there before he has is just a dumb thing to do.
 
Last edited:
Jul 10, 2003
13,937
1,067
KW
There's projections and there's doing it and until now Matthews has never done it. Again, if Ovechkin only played 60 games last year he would've been projected at a near 60 goal pace or slightly higher, he finished with 51. An 82 game season takes it's tolls and affords more room for peaks and valleys with production. Most goal scorers are streaky, that's just how it is and putting Matthews at Ovechkin's level or above it is just ridiculous at this point because he hasn't produced at the same level.

And to add, saying this doesn't mean anyone hates Matthews, I think the kid is awesome and has all the potential to do it, but the truth is he hasn't and putting him there before he has is just a dumb thing to do.

I'm not trying to sound condescending, but I'm not really sure what you're point is? You placed Matthews at 50-55 and I placed him at 55-60. What exactly are we disagreeing about?? After having watched every single NHL game he's played, I feel pretty optimistic about his goal scoring ability. Things are lining up nicely for him, considering things like an expected increase in ice time, pp time, new one timer on off wing, better linemates (Nylander def has got his mojo back), and now having 3 seasons experience behind him, I truly expect an outstanding season from him. Dave Poulin, picked him 3rd overall in the TSN fantasy pool, it gives you an idea what the real experts are projecting for him. The only real question mark is staying healthy, but we all know that.
 

Regal

Registered User
Mar 12, 2010
24,540
13,832
Vancouver
So his mean is around a 45 goal pace? I’ll stick with my 43goal prediction then.

Not even really commenting on the predictions so much, as I think a lot of factors could affect his goals, including improving with age and better minutes, more just commenting on the idea of pace. It's hard to pace goalscorers in partial seasons because they're all quite streaky, but at the same time more games doesn't automatically mean he would go down. His hot start was obviously unsustainable but likely so was his weaker finish.
 

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