I agree the Hobey Baker is an award that is not always a great predictor of future pro success.
I can't agree that it overly geared towards sportsmanship and character, and that is the reason it is a poor predictor. Basically the best players in College Hockey each year are the Hobey Baker finalists. I guess if someone is a really bad guy or had an incident that might eliminate him from consideration, but basically it is a pure best player in college hockey award
The voting history suggests there's a heavy weighting on off-ice things as well. Even the award criteria itself clearly state "Criteria for the award include: displaying outstanding skills in all phases of the game, strength of character on and off the ice, sportsmanship and scholastic achievements." Also it tends to become something of a career award in many years, rather then single season.
For example, let's look at 2015-16 (using this year as a F won, easier to compare then a D in 2017).
Overall ranking in D-1 scoring for 2015-16 Forward Hobey Baker finalists:
1st: Player A: Freshman, 38GP, 35G, 36A, 71PTS, 1.87PPG, team finished 25-8-5, 2nd in Conference, lost Round of 8 in playoffs
2nd: Player B: Junior, 38GP, 16G, 47A, 63PTS, 1.66PPG, team finished 25-8-5, 2nd in Conference, lost Round of 8 in playoffs
3rd: Freshman, 42GP, 27G, 33A, 60PTS, 1.43PPG, not a HB finalist
4th: Player C: Junior, 38GP, 32G, 24A, 56PTS, 1.47PPG, team finished 25-8-5, 2nd in Conference, lost Round of 8 in playoffs
5th: Player D: Senior, 39GP, 25G, 30A, 55PTS, 1.41PPG, team finished 24-11-4, 1st in Conference, missed playoffs
7th: Player E: Sophomore, 37GP, 22G, 30A, 52PTS, 1.41PPG, team finished 11-20-6, 10th in Conference, missed playoffs
17th: Player F: Senior, 33GP, 24G, 22A, 46PTS, 1.39PPG, team finished 19-11-4, 3rd in Conference, lost Round of 16 in playoffs
69th: Player G: Senior, 36GP, 18G, 15A, 33PTS, 0.92PPG, team finished 23-9-5, 1st in Conference, missed playoffs
Which of these players do you think won the 2016 Hobey Baker?