News: Hobey Baker winner Will Butcher Confirmed to test UFA market August 16

[Not Sure]

I dont think he can get any other contract than the max ELC rookie contract.

He can't get more than the max rookie contract, why couldnt a team go below that?

 

[Riptide]

I think that contract could still be a 1-way deal though (I'm pretty sure that's what Matt Read got coming out of college). Butcher's not the type of player that would be offered a deal like that though.

Negative. All ELC's (regardless of term or when they're signed) are 2-way contracts. I'm pretty sure you can offer the kid more than the standard 10% if they're in the minors, but it must be a 2way contract.

That said... (and I do not know the answer to this) if there's no limitation on what the percentage is if the player is in the minors, I'm not sure why some teams in an effort to woo the player would not offer more than the standard 10%. Maybe that's only an option after their initial ELC? Marcus Sorensen (someone I was looking at earlier today) makes ~250k in the minors on his 2way deal on a 700k NHL contract. But he's not on an ELC.

He can't get more than the max rookie contract, why couldnt a team go below that?

If you're chasing after a player multiple teams are after, and especially one that will be under team control for the next 3-5 years... why would you offer 700k vs 925k when you know many others are going to offer the max. If the player is in the minors making 10% of that contract, you're talking about a 20-30k difference. Noticeable to the player, but inconsequential to the team's overall budget. So why risk not getting the player over a paltry sum?

 

[wej20]

Negative. All ELC's (regardless of term or when they're signed) are 2-way contracts. I'm pretty sure you can offer the kid more than the standard 10% if they're in the minors, but it must be a 2way contract.

That said... (and I do not know the answer to this) if there's no limitation on what the percentage is if the player is in the minors, I'm not sure why some teams in an effort to woo the player would not offer more than the standard 10%. Maybe that's only an option after their initial ELC? Marcus Sorensen (someone I was looking at earlier today) makes ~250k in the minors on his 2way deal on a 700k NHL contract. But he's not on an ELC.



If you're chasing after a player multiple teams are after, and especially one that will be under team control for the next 3-5 years... why would you offer 700k vs 925k when you know many others are going to offer the max. If the player is in the minors making 10% of that contract, you're talking about a 20-30k difference. Noticeable to the player, but inconsequential to the team's overall budget. So why risk not getting the player over a paltry sum?

Ah, you're right. Read's first contract wasn't actually an ELC, makes sense.

 

[bernmeister]

True.
He had basically not shot at an NHL future with the Avs prospect depth on Defense.
Leaving the Avs gives him an opportunity to go somewhere where he might be further ahead on the depth chart. Although, with his skills that's pretty unlikely.

He's leaving an organization that sucks terribly at development. I don't think that's why he's leaving based on what's been said, but the Avs are not the place to be to develop if you're a questionable prospect.

If Butcher's smart, he'll join a quality organization, e.g. a Nashville, and accept at least a year of AHL time and work on his mobility and defense. If he's dumb and demands a team grant him NHL time starting next year and rushes himself (if any are even willing...), then I don't think he'll ever amount to much.

he will sign with the Rangers

actually NYR the MOST unlikely team he would sign with,
ie the team that already signed Pionk,
the other highly respected RD UFA coming out of NCAA this year

if NYR sign a bigger name NCAA UFA in August,
more likely a F, especially a C -
like Toninato
or Kerfoot (hoping not him, he's small-ish, that he was NJD pick adds drama, expectations are he returns to western canada)

Makes no sense for him to sign with the Rangers though. Definitely no room for him in NY, and he'd be battling for a top 4 spot in Hartford

He's not a terrible skater at all. But he's tiny, and when you're that tiny you need to be a plus skater (at the very least) to make up for it in the NHL. In the NCAA he was able to make up for his size, and he might be able to in the AHL or europe with some polish; but it just won't ever work in the NHL unless he hits a growth spurt or his skating improves by leaps and bounds to become a significant strength.

He needs 3/4 year MINIMUM, best case scenario, more likely double that REALISTIC MINIMUM to see if he grows and develops. Smaller guys do have tougher time staying in NHL.

With that in mind, conventional wisdom today does not point to Rangers,
BUT
THINKING AHEAD
Holden is gone w/first decent offer to make space for youngsters
Staal is defeninitely gone b4 start of next yr, either in a $ deal or buyout
McD likely stays this year, though enough massive overpayment now might not be ignored.
Rangers I anticipate will move him for a top rental package
Not expecting him to come back for fewer years at 5/5.5 ish

and Smith, if other guys show up, could be moved after 2 years

so Butcher COULD sign here and be good to go for legit open competition in 2 yrs with realistic shot at 3LD

Of course, we already have a Butch == Buchnevich = Buch = Butch
but I think we can work through that one.

 

[TheTakedown]

Negative. All ELC's (regardless of term or when they're signed) are 2-way contracts. I'm pretty sure you can offer the kid more than the standard 10% if they're in the minors, but it must be a 2way contract.

That said... (and I do not know the answer to this) if there's no limitation on what the percentage is if the player is in the minors, I'm not sure why some teams in an effort to woo the player would not offer more than the standard 10%. Maybe that's only an option after their initial ELC? Marcus Sorensen (someone I was looking at earlier today) makes ~250k in the minors on his 2way deal on a 700k NHL contract. But he's not on an ELC.



If you're chasing after a player multiple teams are after, and especially one that will be under team control for the next 3-5 years... why would you offer 700k vs 925k when you know many others are going to offer the max. If the player is in the minors making 10% of that contract, you're talking about a 20-30k difference. Noticeable to the player, but inconsequential to the team's overall budget. So why risk not getting the player over a paltry sum?

ELC's work as follows regarding $ paid out:

- $925k maximum NHL Salary
- $70k Maximum AHL Salary
- Max Schedule A bonuses is 10% of salary, which is $92.5k on a $925k contract (Individual Performance Metric qualifiers)
- Max Schedule B Bonuses are $2M (League Performance Metric Qualifiers)

Typically, when you land a player like this, they are hardly a candidate to reach any of those Schedule A and B bonuses, so teams offer them when giving out the contract. As far as the max amount of payment, there's no reason a team would skimp on $200k to throw away the chance to land a free prospect. Same concept for the AHL Salary too.

https://centericeview.wordpress.com/2017/03/13/nhl-entry-level-contracts-elc-a-quick-primer/

 

[mouser]

Ah, you're right. Read's first contract wasn't actually an ELC, makes sense.

Yeah, Read was unusual in that he didn't go to the NCAA till he was 21. Finishing college at age 25.

Age 25+ North American players aren't subject to the ELC system.

 

[mouser]

ELC's work as follows regarding $ paid out:

- $925k maximum NHL Salary
- $70k Maximum AHL Salary
- Max Schedule A bonuses is 10% of salary, which is $92.5k on a $925k contract (Individual Performance Metric qualifiers)
- Max Schedule B Bonuses are $2M (League Performance Metric Qualifiers)

Typically, when you land a player like this, they are hardly a candidate to reach any of those Schedule A and B bonuses, so teams offer them when giving out the contract. As far as the max amount of payment, there's no reason a team would skimp on $200k to throw away the chance to land a free prospect. Same concept for the AHL Salary too.

https://centericeview.wordpress.com/2017/03/13/nhl-entry-level-contracts-elc-a-quick-primer/

Max Signing Bonus is 10% of salary.

Max Schedule A Bonuses are $850k.

 

[OrangeAndBlackMetal]

let me guess, the teams he's considering are the Rangers, Flyers and Red Wings? lol

 

[TGWL]

I think 50% of the Vesey threads were posts like this.

Vesey was also a very good skater with good size.

 

[cwede]

let me guess, the teams he's considering are the Rangers, Flyers and Red Wings? lol

not NYR.
Pionk was the NCAA All American D they preferred, and signed.
also adding rookie D's
Pedrie from Penn State,
2 D from Junior,
Bereglazov from KHL and
got 21 yr old DeAngelo from 'yotes.
Also an AHL D signee out of Minn-Duluth.

If NYR sign an Aug 15th NCAA UFA, expect a F
but Av's signed Toninato, probably the most NHL ready and suited

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

let me guess, the teams he's considering are the Rangers, Flyers and Red Wings? lol

Definitely not the Red Wings? They haven't even contacted him. Doubt he would even consider them.

 

[Brodeur]

Vesey actually projected as an NHL player in some respect. Will Butcher make it as well? Dunno.

Vesey was also a very good skater with good size.

Yes, I know. I followed Vesey after he got drafted for my nerdy fantasy keeper league.

I was more pointing out that college/CHL/European free agent threads tend to be bloated with unoriginal observations like "lol I can't believe this guy I've never heard of has X amount of pages" or "I've never seen him play, but one time another guy didn't pan out so we shouldn't bother talking about him."

[/coolstorybro]

 

[1989]

With the Kerfoot signing announced today, I was mildly curious about Butcher's status. Not much news or has the hype train has already derailled?

 

[Blue Goose]

This was last I heard yesterday:

 

[Beerz]

With the Kerfoot signing announced today, I was mildly curious about Butcher's status. Not much news or has the hype train has already derailled?

His agent was on radio in Buffalo the other day and said decision will probably be made next week.

 

[BobbyShehan]

Yes, I know. I followed Vesey after he got drafted for my nerdy fantasy keeper league.

I was more pointing out that college/CHL/European free agent threads tend to be bloated with unoriginal observations like "lol I can't believe this guy I've never heard of has X amount of pages" or "I've never seen him play, but one time another guy didn't pan out so we shouldn't bother talking about him."

[/coolstorybro]

1. Vesey and Butcher just can not compare, talent wise
2. Giving an educated opinion on a player who doesn't seem to have enough basic skills and attributes to develop into a significant NHL player is not unoriginal. What is unoriginal is to boast a certain player because he just won a trophy. Exactly how many times have you seen Butcher?

 

[Brodeur]

1. Vesey and Butcher just can not compare, talent wise

Never said they did........

2. Giving an educated opinion on a player who doesn't seem to have enough basic skills and attributes to develop into a significant NHL player is not unoriginal. What is unoriginal is to boast a certain player because he just won a trophy. Exactly how many times have you seen Butcher?

Your previous comment didn't come off as much of a scouting report.

I've only seen Butcher a couple times, hence why I've refrained from posting much in this thread. Just been monitoring the thread for news and anybody else who has more first hand experience watching him.

For the most part, I don't think too many folks have been putting Butcher on a pedestal for winning the Hobey Baker and this thread itself has been mostly informative.

14 pages on a guy who will most probably never make it to the big show... or end up being a fringe player. It's a looooong summer.

But if you're that perturbed that people on a hockey prospect message board want to have a relatively small discussion on a hockey prospect, more power to you.

I'll go back to waiting on news.

 

[Al Lagoon]

These guys never amount to much. If they were that good, they'd have been in the NHL by their age.

 

[Brodeur]

These guys never amount to much. If they were that good, they'd have been in the NHL by their age.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_undrafted_NHL_players_with_100_games_played#Skaters

Plenty of NHLers with respectable careers who weren't regulars until they were older than 22.

 

[beerme1]

These guys never amount to much. If they were that good, they'd have been in the NHL by their age.

Including Peterson in that thought? Just asking. Some think he's the next Roy and some think he's the next....Jonas Enroth. Well less than Jonas to be fair to him lol.

 

[lifeisruff]

let me guess, the teams he's considering are the Rangers, Flyers and Red Wings? lol

I heard it was the Devils, Sabres (surprisingly) and Golden Knights.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sport...-await-decision-from-free-agent-will-butcher/

 

[Vashanesh]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_undrafted_NHL_players_with_100_games_played#Skaters

Plenty of NHLers with respectable careers who weren't regulars until they were older than 22.

Look at Junior/Senior Hobey Baker winners, though. I think that's what Al may be referring to. The Hobey has not been a good indicator for future pros, it may even be the opposite, as the list of runners-up is generally more impressive.

Outside of Gaudreau, and Vesey, who's a bit too early to make any meaningful judgement on, there's a who's who list of "who?".

Drew Leblanc, Jack Connolly, Andy Miele, Blake Geoffrion, Matt Gilroy, Kevin Porter, Ryan Duncan, Matt Carle, Marty Sertich, Junior Lessard.... I can keep going. Most of these guys are completely irrelevant as far as NHL presence goes.

edit: hell, expand it to any winner. It's just not an impressive distinction.

 

[Snippit]

It sounds like he sucks and will never make the NHL

Hard to get excited

 

[Brodeur]

Look at Junior/Senior Hobey Baker winners, though. I think that's what Al may be referring to. The Hobey has not been a good indicator for future pros, it may even be the opposite, as the list of runners-up is generally more impressive.

Outside of Gaudreau, and Vesey, who's a bit too early to make any meaningful judgement on, there's a who's who list of "who?".

Drew Leblanc, Jack Connolly, Andy Miele, Blake Geoffrion, Matt Gilroy, Kevin Porter, Ryan Duncan, Matt Carle, Marty Sertich, Junior Lessard.... I can keep going. Most of these guys are completely irrelevant as far as NHL presence goes.

edit: hell, expand it to any winner. It's just not an impressive distinction.

I agree that the Hobey Baker award isn't a predictor for future success as a pro much like the Heisman in football. But "never" as AI referred to (assuming he solely meant Hobey winners rather than any older NCAA free agent) is demonstrably false.

And why did you limit your list to the most recent years? If you had kept going, you might have seen names like Brendan Morrison, Chris Drury, and Ryan Miller who had great careers. Jordan Leopold had a respectable NHL tenure as well. I don't think many people in this thread (or those in the media) are declaring Butcher to be a surefire future 10 year NHLer either.

It's just a little hot takey to declare that all Hobey winners won't/will pan out. Each guy is an independent case. I'm sure people were name dropping the Junior Lessards of the world in the Johnny Gaudreau threads before he turned pro. Take away the Hobey Baker and Butcher would still be getting NHL interest since there isn't a ton of risk in offering a two year ELC.

 

[Vashanesh]

I agree that the Hobey Baker award isn't a predictor for future success as a pro much like the Heisman in football. But "never" as AI referred to (assuming he solely meant Hobey winners rather than any older NCAA free agent) is demonstrably false.

And why did you limit your list to the most recent years? If you had kept going, you might have seen names like Brendan Morrison, Chris Drury, and Ryan Miller who had great careers. Jordan Leopold had a respectable NHL tenure as well. I don't think many people in this thread (or those in the media) are declaring Butcher to be a surefire future 10 year NHLer either.

It's just a little hot takey to declare that all Hobey winners won't/will pan out. Each guy is an independent case. I'm sure people were name dropping the Junior Lessards of the world in the Johnny Gaudreau threads before he turned pro. Take away the Hobey Baker and Butcher would still be getting NHL interest since there isn't a ton of risk in offering a two year ELC.

To me, it's more that winning the award, especially as an older college player, simply isn't an indication of anything relevant to the NHL. Unless there's something eye-popping in the stats, size, speed, etc. And Butcher has none of that going for him.

It's like seeing an over-ager light it up in the CHL.

I think of it this way: the actually impressive (with regard to NHL relevance, I'm sincerely not trying to **** on college achievements) college-age players rarely make it to their junior year, let alone their senior. To say that you're the "best" senior in college hockey is, for the last decade or more, saying that you're the best player in a league of players not good enough to go pro, or at least not good enough yet.

Jack Connolly is my go-to example, largely because I actually saw a decent bit of him, particularly in his senior year. There were long stretches were he was just dominating a weekend, not just a game here or there, but he was the best player on the ice for a full 3-game series. He finished with noticeable stats, and ended up 9th all-time in scoring for UMD. Doesn't that sound like someone who at least probably warranted a real shot at NHL ice? And yet he went undrafted, and never even made it to the A. He was small, fast, but not blazing, not physical, not noticeably great along the boards, and yet he was dominating kids, as a young man. Put in that context, it's just not as impressive.

Then we see a guy like Butcher. Who, by almost all accounts, was never going to be a lock for a lengthy NHL career... Smallish, not physical, not particularly strong, no really obvious standout physical attributes other than MAYBE his skating, and doesn't play smart enough to look like he can make up for it. And he wins a Hobey, as a senior, where he's beating up on kids who either don't know, or can't exploit his weaknesses.

It's too easy to draw parallels to the other recent Hobey Baker winners, and we've seen where nearly every one of them for the last 10+ years has ended up.

The connections are inauspicious, to say the least. It's too hard to ignore, to me. "Hot Takey" or not.