Confirmed with Link: Hayes to Jets

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yup. At least. I've never been a rental fan....but with the increasing divergence in salary, it may be the only way have 3 good scoring C on your roster.

3? I just hope we can get 2.

I don't like rentals. UFA's are only a little better and often not even that. I prefer draft & develop and trade from surplus to cover holes. But I want long term covers, not band-aids.

 

[KingBogo]

Maybe Chevy should have drafted better. Given the importance of the position, I think Chevy's drafting at C has been sub-par. Especially offensively gifted centers. Roslovic was supposed to be our Great 2C Hope and that's not looking promising at this stage. There is literally nothing after him in the pipeline.

If you look at the top centers around the league most were 1st round picks with the majority high first rounders. Out of the current top 50 centers only 8 were selected outside of the 1st round. Most GM's have a tough time finding top centers if they aren't drafting at the top of the class. In Chevy's case there happened to be a lot of really skilled wingers who were the BPA when he was drafting high.

 

[Channelcat]

Maybe Chevy should have drafted better. Given the importance of the position, I think Chevy's drafting at C has been sub-par. Especially offensively gifted centers. Roslovic was supposed to be our Great 2C Hope and that's not looking promising at this stage. There is literally nothing after him in the pipeline.

I can at least agree they will have to draft a C very soon! Gustafsson and Virtanen wont be top 2 C. Unfortunately you almost need a top 5 pick to get one.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Remember, Little has been playing with some struggling young players for some time now. And ones that aren’t great defensively.

Ehlers has been very good defensively for quite a while already. Laine is coming around. Oddly enough, he started coming around when he was moved away from Little.

I'm not trying to say that Little was the problem. But he owns his play and his stats.

 

[Saintb]

Maybe I don't have a high opinion of Matty P. But I have a lower opinion of the other 2.

Seriously, I think part of MP's decline is due to usage but part of it is also due to wear and tear on his body. His style was bound to lead to early decline.

I still would have traded both Perreault and Myers at last years draft. I fantasized very modest returns for them that managed to let us draft some very promising prospects. I replaced MP with either Foley or Lemieux, Myers with Poolman.

It can be argued that we would have been weaker in the short term but that argument can be countered too. OTOH, we would certainly be making progress toward filing our holes on a long term basis instead of always renting.

It’s a good thing they didn’t trade Myers last year because he was arguably our best d man in the playoffs. I think he will up his game this year too .

 

[Jet]

For some, certainly not for all. I'm liking Chevy the hunter, just as much as I liked Chevy the gatherer.

Chevy keeps on making smart moves. Unfortunately, those who don't agree with his moves often do not give him credit.

Outside of a few goaltending mistakes (and Stuuuuu) Chevy has not only D&D'ed extremely well, but he has managed his on ice roster very well too. I am extremely happy with him as a GM.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I agree. It is probably wishful thinking that Little could be moved for an acceptable cost.

I haven't liked much of what Chevy has done since picking Laine.
Stanley
Expansion Draft (can't be too hard on this one seeing what some other teams did. My alternative is very speculative)
Little
Stastny
Armia
The jury is still out on Wheeler and Hayes.

It looks to me like he has gone completely off building onto 'all in'. Like he isn't able to balance building/maintaining with contending. JMO, of course.

We seem to be alternating good game/bad game recently. When we play like we have in those good games I certainly have to acknowledge that Chevy has built a really good and fun to watch team for right now. I almost feel a little foolish complaining when I just look at what we have right now. But I am seeing opportunity being squandered and our window being shortened.

Generally managing an NHL team is obviously not as easy as it sometimes looks like it should be. In spite of my misgivings, I think Chevy is still among the best GM's in the league. As a group they seem like a fairly smart bunch and yet so many manage to do it so badly. I must be missing something somewhere. I always used to think I should be good at poker too. The reality of it soon taught me to stop playing. I expect fantasy GM'ing is probably the same. Easy to see what someone else is doing wrong. A little tougher when actually doing it yourself.

See, I never feel foolish about complaining. I wear negativity like a Harry Rosen suit.

 

[TheJadePipe]

Second that, and you cannot deny that Maurice got a top contender last season and that Paul Stastny was spot on pick and a monster in playoffs. It's not fair to blame Chevy for Maurice being badly outcoached against the Vegas.

Sometimes you just have to try actually win the SC, and not only just gather future prospects and picks.

(I was concerned about the Little contract and even more about the Wheeler contract, but the overpayment was not that significant to be totally mad at Chevy)

PoMo, was not outcoached??? The Jets were MAFed! We outplayed the Knights that series , just ran into an unbelievably hot MAF

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

If you look at the top centers around the league most were 1st round picks with the majority high first rounders. Out of the current top 50 centers only 8 were selected outside of the 1st round. Most GM's have a tough time finding top centers if they aren't drafting at the top of the class. In Chevy's case there happened to be a lot of really skilled wingers who were the BPA when he was drafting high.

Yes, you probably do have to get to the party early. I would have liked to see more "blow it up" in the early years to gather up more high picks. Team would have sucked even more for a while but could have been worth it in the long run.

I'm not in any position to evaluate who is BPA at any given point in the draft but I don't think rankings and projections are that cut and dried that you shouldn't be taking position into account as well. Sure, if we had passed on Laine to take Dubois, the disturbance in the Force would have been felt parsecs away. Not sure any longer that wouldn't have been the better choice long term.

 

[Maukkis]

But what is the alternative? Letting Little walk as a UFA and hoping to sign some else as a UFA or trade for one? Good young centers with term on their contract aren't often available.

The alternative was, and probably still is, to make moves that improve this team for a cheap price. As opposed to going all-in, you build something sustainable and end up with several good chances at a Cup. After building the current core, Chevy has done his everything to disassemble the good thing we had going on.

An example of a cheap improvement is a tiny little line change. Go back to December, put together a second line of Perreault-Little-Ehlers, and work with the remaining pieces to get something done. If the aforementioned trio plays anything like their history suggests, you have no need for a Hayes because you have a good second line together. We know what happened in reality: Maurice stuck with combinations that did not work, and now we are down assets for having personnel who did not address the issue on the ice soon enough.

We didn't need to acquire Hayes, but Maurice created the need for another center himself. Chevy, as much good as he has done to this team, is at fault for not recognising that and buying at TDL/not instructing Maurice to try something else/not firing the coach for inefficiency.

A team who finds personnel willing to go the unorthodox route will probably achieve greatness in this league. There are some dumb people working in crucial positions for teams.

 

[Jets 31]

The other thing to think about too is if Chevy kept trading our veterans every time their contract was up , Buff , Little , Wheeler for draft picks it looks like we aren't trying to win . These draft picks don't always pan out either so you could be left with nothing to show for your veteran that you traded away for picks . Like i said , not a easy job to be a successful GM .

 

[Atoyot]

Players do better with Scheif over Little. More at 11...

This actually marks the first season Scheif has a better Corsi than Little. We're also talking Roslo, Tanev, Lowry, Copp being better without than with, so the Scheifele effect doesn't apply. You also addressed one of many points. Why is it so blasphemous to suggest he's taken a step back?

 

[Halberdier]

PoMo, was not outcoached??? The Jets were MAFed! We outplayed the Knights that series , just ran into an unbelievably hot MAF

That was the "truth" that did fit the Canadian media at that time, yes. And it holds some water, as MAF played very well (apart from the first 1-2 games where Helle was better), but Jets certainly did not "outplay" the Knights, but Knights actually schooled the Jets on Jets D-zone over and over and over again forcing us to easy defensive breakdowns, and there was no reaction by coaching team. Those goals Knights scored were mostly softies not by goaltending, but defending. Knights beautifully countered Jets play on own zone. That was pointed out by some Finnish analysts by the time, but no changes were made on how to approach d-zone play.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I’m just glad we won’t have to protect Little. Extending Hayes would make so much sense. He’s at the beginning of his prime, is fitting well so far with the jets (yes, I know it’s a small sample size so far). I just don’t know if it’s realistic with the cap.

2 things: (1) When Chevy extended Little, I think the thought-process was that Little would continue at his production rate from 3 years ago for at least a little while, which would have prevented this “2C hole” that we have and made his extension somewhat worth it; (2) I think we also thought Rosie would be ready to step in at centre by now... but Rosie hasn’t shown that he can, and in fact he hasn’t played centre in a top 6 role yet for the jets. Not too sure what’ll happen there. But the jets better be confident that either Rosie will be their 2C next year or otherwise find a way to sign Hayes somehow, because we can’t be sending a first round pick + prospect every year for a 2C at the deadline...

I might be a little ahead of the curve here, but i don't think so. It is time to forget about Rosie as a 2C. He hasn't shown that he can be an NHL C in the bottom 6. Apart from occasional flashes, he hasn't shown he can be an NHL bottom 6 RW yet. Right now he is on a bubble to be with the Jets at all. I think that it is only his speed that is keeping him around.

I've seen players turn it around on a dime when they suddenly seem to 'get it'. I hope Rosie can still do that but I don't think he will be a 2C when he does.

 

[Trinity]

I'm liking Hayes. I like how he doesn't force things, he let's the game come to him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

His production is still right inline with what you would expect from a player making the cash he is making. However his all around game has really taken a hit. If he can be a 50-55 point winger over the next few years the deal is salvageable imo. 5.3 isn't too much for a second line winger. It will likely look better in a few years when third line players make that much.

I don't think it is necessary for us to move Bryan Little. We can sign Hayes and still keep Little on the roster. If we can find someone to take him off our hands for a reasonable cost, great. But we can carry his contract as long as he can still play half decently somewhere in the lineup. Other than 2C.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Chevy is doing exactly what he should be doing when he is sitting with a young contending team on the verge of moving from very cheap to being very expensive as his young stars transition from ELC's to 2nd contracts. As it is we will be forced to shed contracts to remain cap compliant. In the meantime he has gone on full blown hunter mode and has taken advantage of the 1 efficiency the TD allows for, getting a top player when you need them most without having to pay their salary for the year or moving other key pieces to afford them under the cap. In Hayes case, the cost is relatively small a pick that most likely becomes a bottom of the roster player in 4-6 years and a current bottom of the roster player. These are easy to obtain if you need them.

I could debate all of this post. Actually, I think I have.

But the bolded is such a fallacy. It is something people say when it suits them, but when a team needs to collect 1st rd picks, even late ones, they are very hard to get. The same goes for bottom 6 players. Not easy at all. Not even a little bit.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Trading 1st round picks every year would be stupid , i totally agree with you on that but Chevy has only traded away 2 since 2011 and he picked up a extra one with the Kane trade . Chevy isn't perfect but i think he's done a good job up to now .

Chevy has been trading away our first every year lately.

I agree Chevy has done a good job overall. That doesn't mean he is above criticism. The last 2.5 years, he has not done so well.

 

[GNP]

It’s a good thing they didn’t trade Myers last year because he was arguably our best d man in the playoffs. I think he will up his game this year too .

_______________________________________________________

I agree SaintB --Myers is a big game type of player, and he really comes alive in the playoffs. I see him already starting to rev it up, as we're approaching the playoffs. I still think Myer's a very underrated on these boards.

 

[KingBogo]

I could debate all of this post. Actually, I think I have.

But the bolded is such a fallacy. It is something people say when it suits them, but when a team needs to collect 1st rd picks, even late ones, they are very hard to get. The same goes for bottom 6 players. Not easy at all. Not even a little bit.

We have bottom of the roster players that we have virtually given away because we don't have roster space for them.

 

[Duke749]

This actually marks the first season Scheif has a better Corsi than Little. We're also talking Roslo, Tanev, Lowry, Copp being better without than with, so the Scheifele effect doesn't apply. You also addressed one of many points. Why is it so blasphemous to suggest he's taken a step back?

Well Scheif has regularly taken tougher matchups and I’m not sure using corsi alone proves much of the point but I see where you’re going. It’s not so much that is blasphemous to suggest Little has a taken a step back, it’s more the effort some go to do it like it’s some silly way to justify why Laine wasn’t playing well.

I’m curious about Roslovic though. He’s either played on the 2nd line with Little or 4th line. The matchups are far different. But Copp has been huge this year and I think a big reason that line is rolling right now.

 

[TheJadePipe]

That was the "truth" that did fit the Canadian media at that time, yes. And it holds some water, as MAF played very well (apart from the first 1-2 games where Helle was better), but Jets certainly did not "outplay" the Knights, but Knights actually schooled the Jets on Jets D-zone over and over and over again forcing us to easy defensive breakdowns, and there was no reaction by coaching team. Those goals Knights scored were mostly softies not by goaltending, but defending. Knights beautifully countered Jets play on own zone. That was pointed out by some Finnish analysts by the time, but no changes were made on how to approach d-zone play.

What I am saying...if Goaltending was perfectly 100% equal, dead wash... Winnipeg would have won

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Chevy asset stacked when we were building, getting extra picks and prospects along the way. He is now using assets that don't currently play key roles with the team to maximize his team's chances of winning now. At some point the pendulum will swing the other way when we move out of our contention window. I also fully expect Trouba will be moved after the season in a future rich deal as that will be Chevy's best chance at getting full value back.

This can sound OK, but it assumes the necessity of a short window open cycle. No team's window of contention will remain open forever but there is an opportunity to choose keeping it open for as long as possible instead of trying to throw assets at going all in.

Looking ahead to next year with Hayes gone, Trouba traded for futures, Little Wheeler and Buff all another year past their peaks will we be contenders again? Or pretenders? We will still be a good team with our still young forwards but I don't see how we could contend with the D corps that we will have left.

So a contention window of only 2 years? Followed by some kind of retool to rebuild our D and fill some gaps in the forward corps. How long will that take? And the best chance in that short window was probably last year.

Continuing to build, by draft and by trade, keeping the window open as long as possible is the better plan for actually winning the Cup, IMO. The same assets get used either way, but their value can be optimized better than by using them for rentals. At the rate we are going, having a 2C for 7 years will cost us 7 first rd picks + 7 good prospects + assorted throw in pieces. That is obviously poor value compared to having a suitable player signed for 7 years.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It’s a good thing they didn’t trade Myers last year because he was arguably our best d man in the playoffs. I think he will up his game this year too .

You're right, that is arguable.

Do you mean that all this time he could be better? What does he do, cruise along at 80% all season waiting for the PO's?

I had mixed feelings about trading him last off-season. The fact he was entering his last season under contract tipped the scales. He was coming off the best season he had had for several years. We could have sold high on him. That opportunity is gone now. We either get nothing for him or we sign him for too much and too long. I don't believe there is a 3rd option.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We have bottom of the roster players that we have virtually given away because we don't have roster space for them.

And yet when we needed them they were nowhere to be found.