Confirmed with Link: Hayes to Jets

[KingBogo]

Since people seem to have forgotten the basics, let's remind everyone of them.

Little's NMC is on Chevy. Us renting two 2Cs just to see them walk is entirely on Chevy. The alleged hole at 2C remaining is on Chevy.

Never, ever blame the player for doing the only sensible thing for him: what is best for themselves. Little has only himself to bet on. Blame the manager for offering the contract, blame him for wasting futures on rentals, blame him for not adjusting.

Chevy deserves a shot at managing a so-called contender, but the moves he has made during the peak have pretty much unequivocally sucked. A couple of decent ones, and a lot of meh and crap. A Hayes extension would be a breath of fresh air.

And if that extension cannot be done, we have Chevy to blame for making a bad deal in the first place.

Chevy is doing exactly what he should be doing when he is sitting with a young contending team on the verge of moving from very cheap to being very expensive as his young stars transition from ELC's to 2nd contracts. As it is we will be forced to shed contracts to remain cap compliant. In the meantime he has gone on full blown hunter mode and has taken advantage of the 1 efficiency the TD allows for, getting a top player when you need them most without having to pay their salary for the year or moving other key pieces to afford them under the cap. In Hayes case, the cost is relatively small a pick that most likely becomes a bottom of the roster player in 4-6 years and a current bottom of the roster player. These are easy to obtain if you need them.

 

[Jets 31]

Since people seem to have forgotten the basics, let's remind everyone of them.

Little's NMC is on Chevy. Us renting two 2Cs just to see them walk is entirely on Chevy. The alleged hole at 2C remaining is on Chevy.

Never, ever blame the player for doing the only sensible thing for him: what is best for themselves. Little has only himself to bet on. Blame the manager for offering the contract, blame him for wasting futures on rentals, blame him for not adjusting.

Chevy deserves a shot at managing a so-called contender, but the moves he has made during the peak have pretty much unequivocally sucked. A couple of decent ones, and a lot of meh and crap. A Hayes extension would be a breath of fresh air.

And if that extension cannot be done, we have Chevy to blame for making a bad deal in the first place.

You always seem like you are yelling at people and that Chevy is a idiot and you absolutely could do a better job than Chevy . Being a NHL GM wouldn't be easy , especially when almost every single player in this league has Winnipeg on their no trade list . Maybe when Chevy gave that contract to Little , there were no other options that were better at the time . Anyway you should cheer up a little bit , we have a young , talented team that we should be proud of .

 

[Channelcat]

Little produces on par or above most other players in his group. Henrique, Turris, Mikael Backlund etc. for less $. Not sure what the problem is.

 

[Maukkis]

You always seem like you are yelling at people and that Chevy is a idiot and you absolutely could do a better job than Chevy . Being a NHL GM wouldn't be easy , especially when almost every single player in this league has Winnipeg on their no trade list . Maybe when Chevy gave that contract to Little , there were no other options that were better at the time . Anyway you should cheer up a little bit , we have a young , talented team that we should be proud of .

Does it not seem the slightest bit strange that a GM who has to deal with UFAs not wanting to play here is trading for, you know, UFAs with expiring contracts? And in doing so, he gives up youth that has very little say in whether they play here or not.

Chevy has lost that excuse now. He suffers from a deficiency that he has no control over (that being Winnipeg's undesireable status), and then he goes on to make it even worse himself.

No one should consider his way of dealing responsible.

 

[Maukkis]

In my eyes Little and Hayes are pretty similar caliber of player and have similar stats with Little being a bit ahead in scoring and possession metrics, but having had more prime years playing. I don't know how in one post you can be outraged that Little got a contract, then also say that you would be relieved if Hayes got a big contract.

You misunderstood my post.

Some seemed to be displeased with Little and his NMC. The GM is the one who gives them to his players, so Little should be absolved of all criticism there. If Little's NMC ends up hindering the progression of this team, blame Chevy.

I want Hayes to be signed to stop the f***ing bleeding at every TDL. We cannot go on giving up a first every year to fill the same need. Rentals don't pay off in the long run.

Also, how did we need Hayes to fill the 2C spot, if we also think that Hayes and Little are close in talent? Furthermore, how has Chevy gone into two consecutive seasons with 55-18-17 as the top 3 centers, only to suddenly find a need for another Little-level player in February?

 

[Jets 31]

Does it not seem the slightest bit strange that a GM who has to deal with UFAs not wanting to play here is trading for, you know, UFAs with expiring contracts? And in doing so, he gives up youth that has very little say in whether they play here or not.

Chevy has lost that excuse now. He suffers from a deficiency that he has no control over (that being Winnipeg's undesireable status), and then he goes on to make it even worse himself.

No one should consider his way of dealing responsible.

Trading 1st round picks every year would be stupid , i totally agree with you on that but Chevy has only traded away 2 since 2011 and he picked up a extra one with the Kane trade . Chevy isn't perfect but i think he's done a good job up to now .

 

[KingBogo]

Trading 1st round picks every year would be stupid , i totally agree with you on that but Chevy has only traded away 2 since 2011 and he picked up a extra one with the Kane trade . Chevy isn't perfect but i think he's done a good job up to now .

Chevy asset stacked when we were building, getting extra picks and prospects along the way. He is now using assets that don't currently play key roles with the team to maximize his team's chances of winning now. At some point the pendulum will swing the other way when we move out of our contention window. I also fully expect Trouba will be moved after the season in a future rich deal as that will be Chevy's best chance at getting full value back.

 

[Jets 31]

Chevy asset stacked when we were building, getting extra picks and prospects along the way. He is now using assets that don't currently play key roles with the team to maximize his team's chances of winning now. At some point the pendulum will swing the other way when we move out of our contention window. I also fully expect Trouba will be moved after the season in a future rich deal as that will be Chevy's best chance at getting full value back.

Agreed , by the way good job at signing up on Hf boards so long ago , wish i did .

 

[Maukkis]

Trading 1st round picks every year would be stupid , i totally agree with you on that but Chevy has only traded away 2 since 2011 and he picked up a extra one with the Kane trade . Chevy isn't perfect but i think he's done a good job up to now .

There is very little to criticise about the way Chevy /built/ the team up from the ground.

There is a f***ton of reason for criticism regarding how he has handled the team since.

 

[KingBogo]

There is very little to criticise about the way Chevy /built/ the team up from the ground.

There is a ****ton of reason for criticism regarding how he has handled the team since.

For some, certainly not for all. I'm liking Chevy the hunter, just as much as I liked Chevy the gatherer.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agreed. As much as I'm a Little fan I don't think a 33 y/o guy on the decline is in the best interest of an expansion team. But not having to protect him is a positive.

I think there are some pros and cons from their POV. Meeting the cap floor is probably a minor consideration, but it does exist. A veteran presence has value as long as it is not a complete boat anchor.

If he is still playing somewhat well, just at a level below his contract cost, it might make sense from both sides if we provide an incentive. There was some of that with VGK. The problem was that teams went overboard with providing incentives.

If the cost of the incentive is reasonable it could be made to work. Say a lesser roster player or a mid rd pick.

The catch is that we would need to have the replacement 2C already in place.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Chevy asset stacked when we were building, getting extra picks and prospects along the way. He is now using assets that don't currently play key roles with the team to maximize his team's chances of winning now. At some point the pendulum will swing the other way when we move out of our contention window. I also fully expect Trouba will be moved after the season in a future rich deal as that will be Chevy's best chance at getting full value back.

I don't know if I would agree that he asset stacked. For a team trying to rebuild through D&D, I think what the Jets added was pretty underwhelming. I can't remember where it was but someone had posted a chart of how many draft picks the Jets have had compared to other teams and as I recall we were below average, not above.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

In my eyes Little and Hayes are pretty similar caliber of player and have similar stats with Little being a bit ahead in scoring and possession metrics, but having had more prime years playing. I don't know how in one post you can be outraged that Little got a contract, then also say that you would be relieved if Hayes got a big contract.

Right now, Hayes is superior to Little, in scoring, in shot metrics, in offense and in defense. And he is about 4.5 years younger. Is Hayes now superior to Little of 4-5 years ago? Don't know. Don't care. Little of 4-5 years ago is no longer available.

Little is probably our best FO man. Yet he wasn't played at C lower down the depth chart after Hayes was acquired. He is being used at RW. Why? Could it be that he just isn't that good at C any more?

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

With or without Hayes, that is a pessimistic view of next year's Jets. You have them moving the best of those 3.

He may well be, although I don't share your high opinion of Matty. It may be usage, it may not but I don't think he's worth what he's being paid. However, it had more to do with his position. At this stage, I don't think the Jets can consider any defensemen expendable. But, so many moving parts in all this hard to say how it will all shake out.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Kevin Hayes is at a 46.18 CF% and a 1.89 P/60 at 5v5 over the last 3 seasons.

Bryan Little is a 49.62 CF% and a 1.78 P/60 at 5v5 over that same period.

Pretty comparable. Little of course is older but Hayes is having a career year. I certainly wouldn’t pay him 7.5M with term.

Look at them over the last 2 years, the last year. Little's numbers are going steadily down. Hayes' numbers are going steadily up.

Yes, Hayes is having a career year. What makes you think next year won't be as good or better? This year does not look like an outlier. It is just continuing on the same trajectory he has been on for the last 3 years.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree, I don't think he commands that much though. I could very well be wrong though, it's not a rare event.

UFA prices? I think he gets at least 7. Look at recent contracts. 7 mil today is not like 7 mil 4-5 years ago.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

If we have a replacement 2C by then, sending him to Seattle would be a good result for Jets. I think it will require some incentive to get them to take him. I'd be willing to go that route as long as the incentive is not too much.

I think the incentive would be horrific. I think it would take a first rounder (assuming Chevy hasn't already traded it for another rental) or a top prospect for them to take on Little's albatross of a contract. It would be like Mason-Armia on steroids. Chevy shouldn't have given so much for so Little, so to speak. I guess I'm going to sound like a stuck record, but I'm in complete agreement with @Maukkis that the good Chevy did in the early stages is now being undone by questionable decisions. He may be a builder, but I'm not confident he can continue the maintenance needed to keep this house standing.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I disagree with this, I've always liked Little but that is a lot of commitment to put into someone at that age and it isn't difficult to foresee it hurting us. I wouldn't have guessed it would be as soon as this season but that's what I've seen (I know many don't agree, that's fine) and the underlying numbers support my views. Based on his numbers he has not been a capable top 6 center this season, and if that's the case we've now invested a heavy contract into a player expected to be a top 6 center that has already fallen below that in the first year of his deal.

When that contract was signed, I thought the AAV was actually a little low. But I thought the term was at least 1 and more likely 2 years too long.

Unfortunately it is working out worse than that. Hindsight suggests he should have been traded while he was still under contract but that is water under the bridge now.

 

[Channelcat]

UFA prices? I think he gets at least 7. Look at recent contracts. 7 mil today is not like 7 mil 4-5 years ago.

Yup. At least. I've never been a rental fan....but with the increasing divergence in salary, it may be the only way have 3 good scoring C on your roster.

 

[bumblebeeman]

You misunderstood my post.

Some seemed to be displeased with Little and his NMC. The GM is the one who gives them to his players, so Little should be absolved of all criticism there. If Little's NMC ends up hindering the progression of this team, blame Chevy.

I want Hayes to be signed to stop the ****ing bleeding at every TDL. We cannot go on giving up a first every year to fill the same need. Rentals don't pay off in the long run.

Also, how did we need Hayes to fill the 2C spot, if we also think that Hayes and Little are close in talent? Furthermore, how has Chevy gone into two consecutive seasons with 55-18-17 as the top 3 centers, only to suddenly find a need for another Little-level player in February?

But what is the alternative? Letting Little walk as a UFA and hoping to sign some else as a UFA or trade for one? Good young centers with term on their contract aren't often available.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He may well be, although I don't share your high opinion of Matty. It may be usage, it may not but I don't think he's worth what he's being paid. However, it had more to do with his position. At this stage, I don't think the Jets can consider any defensemen expendable. But, so many moving parts in all this hard to say how it will all shake out.

Maybe I don't have a high opinion of Matty P. But I have a lower opinion of the other 2.

Seriously, I think part of MP's decline is due to usage but part of it is also due to wear and tear on his body. His style was bound to lead to early decline.

I still would have traded both Perreault and Myers at last years draft. I fantasized very modest returns for them that managed to let us draft some very promising prospects. I replaced MP with either Foley or Lemieux, Myers with Poolman.

It can be argued that we would have been weaker in the short term but that argument can be countered too. OTOH, we would certainly be making progress toward filing our holes on a long term basis instead of always renting.

 

[Duke749]

He's played with many wingers, and all of them have done better away from him. Also his heat map shows that a ton of chances against are coming from the areas that he is expected to be defending. His relative Corsi is ~ -6%. He played most of last season with Laine and still had positive underlying numbers. He's had a rough year, hopefully he can bounce back from it.

Players do better with Scheif over Little. More at 11...

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

But what is the alternative? Letting Little walk as a UFA and hoping to sign some else as a UFA or trade for one? Good young centers with term on their contract aren't often available.

Maybe Chevy should have drafted better. Given the importance of the position, I think Chevy's drafting at C has been sub-par. Especially offensively gifted centers. Roslovic was supposed to be our Great 2C Hope and that's not looking promising at this stage. There is literally nothing after him in the pipeline.

 

[Halberdier]

For some, certainly not for all. I'm liking Chevy the hunter, just as much as I liked Chevy the gatherer.

Second that, and you cannot deny that Maurice got a top contender last season and that Paul Stastny was spot on pick and a monster in playoffs. It's not fair to blame Chevy for Maurice being badly outcoached against the Vegas.

Sometimes you just have to try actually win the SC, and not only just gather future prospects and picks.

(I was concerned about the Little contract and even more about the Wheeler contract, but the overpayment was not that significant to be totally mad at Chevy)

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the incentive would be horrific. I think it would take a first rounder (assuming Chevy hasn't already traded it for another rental) or a top prospect for them to take on Little's albatross of a contract. It would be like Mason-Armia on steroids. Chevy shouldn't have given so much for so Little, so to speak. I guess I'm going to sound like a stuck record, but I'm in complete agreement with @Maukkis that the good Chevy did in the early stages is now being undone by questionable decisions. He may be a builder, but I'm not confident he can continue the maintenance needed to keep this house standing.

I agree. It is probably wishful thinking that Little could be moved for an acceptable cost.

I haven't liked much of what Chevy has done since picking Laine.
Stanley
Expansion Draft (can't be too hard on this one seeing what some other teams did. My alternative is very speculative)
Little
Stastny
Armia
The jury is still out on Wheeler and Hayes.

It looks to me like he has gone completely off building onto 'all in'. Like he isn't able to balance building/maintaining with contending. JMO, of course.

We seem to be alternating good game/bad game recently. When we play like we have in those good games I certainly have to acknowledge that Chevy has built a really good and fun to watch team for right now. I almost feel a little foolish complaining when I just look at what we have right now. But I am seeing opportunity being squandered and our window being shortened.

Generally managing an NHL team is obviously not as easy as it sometimes looks like it should be. In spite of my misgivings, I think Chevy is still among the best GM's in the league. As a group they seem like a fairly smart bunch and yet so many manage to do it so badly. I must be missing something somewhere. I always used to think I should be good at poker too. The reality of it soon taught me to stop playing. I expect fantasy GM'ing is probably the same. Easy to see what someone else is doing wrong. A little tougher when actually doing it yourself.