Has Bergevin made us a better team so far this summer? Part 3

[417]

MB can't worry about Price and Weber in 3 years,
Time is now, they are primed

Price and Weber don't run the team...the GM has to have a broader view then both of these players "window".

If they here, they're here...if they're gone, they're gone.

Either way, the hockey world will keep on spinning...fans will develop attachments to the new crop of players.

That's how its always been.

 

[sampollock]

Price and Weber don't run the team...the GM has to have a broader view then both of these players "window".

If they here, they're here...if they're gone, they're gone.

Either way, the hockey world will keep on spinning...fans will develop attachments to the new crop of players.

That's how its always been.

Your right,
But to use them to go far, that window is closing

 

[Runner77]

It’s not about defending Bergevin or supporting him ... it’s about when it would be a good time to move on from him. In some non-Geoff world, that time might have come already but ownership has always been frustratingly slow to act.

Sure, you can always like some aspects of his management. But on an overall basis, he’s had his opportunity. The next GM can just as easily continue to stockpile prospects, it’s not rocket science. A rich team like the Habs can buy their way out of anything that is not cap-dependant.

Would rather see someone else get a shot. MB’s vision has run its course.

 

[Runner77]

Your right,
But to use them to go far, that window is closing

GM doesn’t believe in windows as you well know. Plus, when it comes to Weber, MB highly values his intangibles, he’s everything a captain should be in MB’s estimation.

Price is just like Weber — MB will live and die with him, no matter what other personnel moves are being contemplated.

You wanna move on from Weber and/or Price at some point? That’ll only happen with a new GM.

 

[Miller Time]

Hopefully...

I’ve never defended Bergevin over the consecutive years of screw ups that have led us to where we are today, but when it comes to the last couple of seasons, I think he did what he had to do. As of right now, I don’t see the point in trying to get significant quick fix improvements.

i agree that "quick fix" solutions are useless unless they fit/align to a broader plan and strategy.

I don't agree that MB "did what he had to do" as far as anything related to the success, short or long term, of the hockey team... that said, GM's don't "have to" do anything other than keep their ownership (or boss if they have a hockey op prez) happy to keep their job, and in that sense, MB has been masterful at "doing what he needs to do".

Hopefully, we get a GM with a plan/vision in place sooner than later.

 

[Miller Time]

That's only true if you ignore the 441 other games he played and just focus on the 63 games he played this year.

\

disagree. It's true if you are a GM that has a plan, and that understands negotiations, the interests/motivations of your peers, and the short/long term needs of your own roster. GM's of that capacity use their insights and competence to find the optimal value of their assets more often than not... MB, as has been his M.O for his entire tenure, does pretty much the opposite...

side note, interesting that in this instance, you prefer to ignore the recent performance and heavily weight the historical factors... when just yesterday you spent a long time claiming that MB's recent "plan" (or your perception thereof) is of more consequence than his historical actions...

Personally, when it comes to evaluating leadership, I'd always put more weight on the full body of work than on any recent changes/successes/failures...
In stark contrast, when it comes to evaluating professional athletes, i'd shift the pendulum to weight far more the recent body of work/performance as an indicator of what to expect in the immediate future... (and plz note, in neither case am i suggesting that all evaluation should come from either the immediate or historical body of work, merely pointing out a contrasting weighting of those factors based on the nature of the roles).

 

[417]

disagree. It's true if you are a GM that has a plan, and that understands negotiations, the interests/motivations of your peers, and the short/long term needs of your own roster. GM's of that capacity use their insights and competence to find the optimal value of their assets more often than not... MB, as has been his M.O for his entire tenure, does pretty much the opposite...

MB is an awful GM...

Ok ..I think this has been covered enough.

d
side note, interesting that in this instance, you prefer to ignore the recent performance and heavily weight the historical factors... when just yesterday you spent a long time claiming that MB's recent "plan" (or your perception thereof) is of more consequence than his historical actions...

What? Lol

I did no such thing...

I was talking about Bergevin's performance as GM of this team since he declared the team was going through a reset.

This has and has always been the time period I've been talking about Bergevin's moves.

I never claimed we should ignore his tenure previous to that.

I don't think Bergevin is a good GM, he's not as bad as folks here will have you believe but he's not good.

I've acknowledged that several times.

Personally, when it comes to evaluating leadership, I'd always put more weight on the full body of work than on any recent changes/successes/failures...
In stark contrast, when it comes to evaluating professional athletes, i'd shift the pendulum to weight far more the recent body of work/performance as an indicator of what to expect in the immediate future... (and plz note, in neither case am i suggesting that all evaluation should come from either the immediate or historical body of work, merely pointing out a contrasting weighting of those factors based on the nature of the roles).

So what are you thoughts on Max Domi's projections for this coming year.

You're surely not expecting him to "revert back" to his 50pt form, right?

Cause I've seen a ton of folks say that here...

 

[26Mats]

MB can't worry about Price and Weber in 3 years,
Time is now, they are primed

2 big misses last summer: Skinner (could have been acquired for a 2nd and traded during the year for a good left D) and Perron (available without giving up assets and for around 4.5 million cap hit to outbid St. Louis).

3 misses this summer: Subban (could have been acquired for the assets we could have gotten for Shaw and Byron) and Dzingle and MoJo could have been signed to 2 year deals. They would strengthen our top 9 this year and could be traded for good picks the following year to make room for Suzuki and another young player.

There were upgrades to be had. MB just missed the boat.

 

[Miller Time]

So what are you thoughts on Max Domi's projections for this coming year.

You're surely not expecting him to "revert back" to his 50pt form, right?

Cause I've seen a ton of folks say that here...

well, no, i don't... you see, like i was trying to explain in the Shaw example, last year's performance by Domi is an indicator of where he is at today. He could revert back and this past season prove to be a blip that stands as his career best, as it could for Shaw, or, he could build on it and produce future seasons at a similar or even heightened production level.
Given his age, roster situation and attitude/nature, I'd bet more on the latter.

Personally, I'd peg Domi to come up a bit under the 72pts he put up last year for 3 reasons:
- his GM diminished the quality of the available wingers he can potentially play with
- by losing a physical player with a confrontational style similar to his own in the top-6, Domi will bear a greater burden in the confrontational/physical department(both bc he'll continue to be a target as our top offensive player and bc he's a "stick up for my teammates at all cost" kind of guy and there is really no one else but the even smaller gallagher with that kind of mindset" and this could see him spend more time in the penalty box, more wear&tear, greater injury risk
- his style and stature lend themself to injury risk... he's been pretty durable so far, with 3 of 4 pro seasons with 80+games, but I do think injuries will likely pop up again at some point in his career, so that aspect could also affect his ability to hit 70+ again if it falls next year

if he's healthy and plays 80 games, i'd say 65-75 is what i'd expect... ceiling if the supporting cast steps up and exceeds expectations, floor if we get about expected performance from them.

 

[417]

well, no, i don't... you see, like i was trying to explain in the Shaw example, last year's performance by Domi is an indicator of where he is at today. He could revert back and this past season prove to be a blip that stands as his career best, as it could for Shaw, or, he could build on it and produce future seasons at a similar or even heightened production level.
Given his age, roster situation and attitude/nature, I'd bet more on the latter.

But here's what you said in the previous post

"i'd shift the pendulum to weight far more the recent body of work/performance as an indicator of what to expect in the immediate future..."

So how come you apply this logic with Shaw but not with Domi?

You watched Habs games last year I assume, wouldn't you say that Domi was integral to Shaw's success last year?

Personally, I'd peg Domi to come up a bit under the 72pts he put up last year for 3 reasons:
- his GM diminished the quality of the available wingers he can potentially play with
- by losing a physical player with a confrontational style similar to his own in the top-6, Domi will bear a greater burden in the confrontational/physical department(both bc he'll continue to be a target as our top offensive player and bc he's a "stick up for my teammates at all cost" kind of guy and there is really no one else but the even smaller gallagher with that kind of mindset" and this could see him spend more time in the penalty box, more wear&tear, greater injury risk
- his style and stature lend themself to injury risk... he's been pretty durable so far, with 3 of 4 pro seasons with 80+games, but I do think injuries will likely pop up again at some point in his career, so that aspect could also affect his ability to hit 70+ again if it falls next year

if he's healthy and plays 80 games, i'd say 65-75 is what i'd expect... ceiling if the supporting cast steps up and exceeds expectations, floor if we get about expected performance from them.

Well I guess you kind of answered my question here lol

What about Danault? Tatar? Petry? Gallagher?

Or do they too, have to be traded to another team in order for fans to show their true appreciation for them?

 

[THE HOFF]

The thing with Shaw is that he was probably more valuable to us at this point than to other teams. Flip the tables, a 2nd and a 3rd. I wouldn't spend that on Shaw. But we had him and he had good chemistry with our first line center. Leadership skills and some sandpaper to the top line. Definitely put up decent enough numbers to deserve another kick at the cane, but I don't think his production will be as hard to replace as some here suggest. He put up an impressive but unsustainable PPG and we will benefit from giving his 2 minutes of PP time/game to another player. Hate to see him go, but if that pushes one of KK/Poehling/suzuki in the top 6 or make them more involved in the team I'm all for it. Shaw's health is also a question mark that few here are taking into consideration. We all wondered if he would be able to play even this past year. You're always a knock away from not being able to move him at all.

 

[417]

2 big misses last summer: Skinner (could have been acquired for a 2nd and traded during the year for a good left D) and Perron (available without giving up assets and for around 4.5 million cap hit to outbid St. Louis).

3 misses this summer: Subban (could have been acquired for the assets we could have gotten for Shaw and Byron) and Dzingle and MoJo could have been signed to 2 year deals. They would strengthen our top 9 this year and could be traded for good picks the following year to make room for Suzuki and another young player.

There were upgrades to be had. MB just missed the boat.

Stop it...there's enough hysteria going around that we don't need the fantasy of Subban ever donning the Habs jersey again with this owner/management, being parroted like it was even a possibility.

 

[Miller Time]

But here's what you said in the previous post

"i'd shift the pendulum to weight far more the recent body of work/performance as an indicator of what to expect in the immediate future..."

So how come you apply this logic with Shaw but not with Domi?

Huh?

I'm confused by your comment. Domi put up 72pts last year, after averaging 50pts/82 g through his first 3 years . I just re-eiterated that i'd expect him to be at 65-75pts this year, if healthy.

Domi's recent body of work (72pts in 82 games) being a greater "weight" in my expectations for his production this year than his 50pt/82games body of work in the previous 3 seasons.

That's exactly the opposite of what you are inferring. Did you take time to read my reply?

You watched Habs games last year I assume, wouldn't you say that Domi was integral to Shaw's success last year?


Well I guess you kind of answered my question here lol

I'd certainly say that Domi was an integral part of Shaw's success... and perhaps more decidedly, the coaching staff's decision to deploy him largely in a top-6 role with the teams best offensive Centre.

How Shaw gets used in Chicago (ice time, linemates) will play a big factor in his productivity... as will his health... if he plays in their top-6 with guys like Kane, Toews, Debrincat, Strome... then I suspect he'll be much closer to, or exceed, his .75ppg from last year than he will be to the .41ppg he had prior to last year's outburst. If he plays more of a third line role/with lesser linemates, than i'd expect his productivity to drop (which, wouldn't imo be an indicator that he'd have reverted back to that with us... usage and linemates are a hugely influential variable when it comes to a player's productivity... only elite players can/are expected to consistently produce regardless of linemates, and even then there's still an obvious variance tied to fit/ability of their linemates.


The more pressing question for us, is how integral Shaw was to Domi's success... Domi is the one who now heads into the season with two of Drouin/Byron/Poehling/Weal/Lekhonen/Armia/Cousins as his linemates (assuming he stays at C, and Tatar/Danault/Gallagher stay intact)... Drouin being the only one of which who has have ever put up more than .6ppg.

 

[26Mats]

Stop it...there's enough hysteria going around that we don't need the fantasy of Subban ever donning the Habs jersey again with this owner/management, being parroted like it was even a possibility.

There were few realistic options available this summer and last. Aho, Marner, Dahlin, and Tavares were never realistic options. Subban was one of the few actual options. It is what it is. We missed the boat. We have a good young core that may contend in the future. But it's further in the future when we let good opportunities to make us better go right by.

 

[417]

I'd certainly say that Domi was an integral part of Shaw's success... and perhaps more decidedly, the coaching staff's decision to deploy him largely in a top-6 role with the teams best offensive Centre.

Agreed - and it's because Shaw is more of a complimentary player, he's not a play driver. So he is replaceable/interchangeable. As are every other complimentary players.

How Shaw gets used in Chicago (ice time, linemates) will play a big factor in his productivity... as will his health... if he plays in their top-6 with guys like Kane, Toews, Debrincat, Strome... then I suspect he'll be much closer to, or exceed, his .75ppg from last year than he will be to the .41ppg he had prior to last year's outburst. If he plays more of a third line role/with lesser linemates, than i'd expect his productivity to drop (which, wouldn't imo be an indicator that he'd have reverted back to that with us... usage and linemates are a hugely influential variable when it comes to a player's productivity... only elite players can/are expected to consistently produce regardless of linemates, and even then there's still an obvious variance tied to fit/ability of their linemates.

100% agreed...which is why i'm not worried about "replacing" Shaw because I think he can be replaced internally with players who have higher upside.

The more pressing question for us, is how integral Shaw was to Domi's success... Domi is the one who now heads into the season with two of Drouin/Byron/Poehling/Weal/Lekhonen/Armia/Cousins as his linemates (assuming he stays at C, and Tatar/Danault/Gallagher stay intact)... Drouin being the only one of which who has have ever put up more than .6ppg.

I'd love for the Habs to get another right handed forward who could play with Domi...I've been championing the acquisition of Kasperi Kapanen for awhile now, I think he'd fit like a glove on that line and I think the cost to acquire him wouldn't be too prohibitive given it would just help the Leafs sign Marner.

But ultimately, I suspect that won't happen.

 

[417]

There were few realistic options available this summer and last. Aho, Marner, Dahlin, and Tavares were never realistic options. Subban was one of the few actual options. It is what it is. We missed the boat. We have a good young core that may contend in the future. But it's further in the future when we let good opportunities to make us better go right by.

They didn't miss the boat...they didn't want to get on.

Stop this fantasy.

 

[Tyson]

The thing with Shaw is that he was probably more valuable to us at this point than to other teams. Flip the tables, a 2nd and a 3rd. I wouldn't spend that on Shaw. But we had him and he had good chemistry with our first line center. Leadership skills and some sandpaper to the top line. Definitely put up decent enough numbers to deserve another kick at the cane, but I don't think his production will be as hard to replace as some here suggest. He put up an impressive but unsustainable PPG and we will benefit from giving his 2 minutes of PP time/game to another player. Hate to see him go, but if that pushes one of KK/Poehling/suzuki in the top 6 or make them more involved in the team I'm all for it. Shaw's health is also a question mark that few here are taking into consideration. We all wondered if he would be able to play even this past year. You're always a knock away from not being able to move him at all.

I am not and was not Shaw’s biggest fan but the Habs did not improve by trading him. Puzzling move

 

[Tyson]

Again, this is a cognitive dissonance issue.

When we traded for him we gave up two 2nd round picks. This board was up in arms that we overpaid. Three injury-filled years, a supposedly inflated contract, a few concussions, and the nickname Shawful later we trade him for a 2nd and a 3rd. The board is screaming we gave him away.

We did give him away.

 

[417]

We did give him away.

If you think they gave him away - doesn't that mean you also think they acquired him for nothing?

Because the difference in what they paid to acquire Shaw vs what they acquired for trading Shaw, is not a substantial difference.

 

[Tyson]

If you think they gave him away - doesn't that mean you also think they acquired him for nothing?

Because the difference in what they paid to acquire Shaw vs what they acquired for trading Shaw, is not a substantial difference.

Fair point absolutely but if we “stole” him for 2 second round picks, why not be smart and get a better return? He had a solid season and I believe we could have at least gotten two 2nd rounders back.

 

[Mario Lemieux fan 66]

Price and Weber don't run the team...the GM has to have a broader view then both of these players "window".

If they here, they're here...if they're gone, they're gone.

Either way, the hockey world will keep on spinning...fans will develop attachments to the new crop of players.

That's how its always been.

Replacing a vezina winner and a former Norris contender is no easy task. Condon, Tokarski, Fucale, Lindgren have all either busted or not taken the next step. Primeau is our only hope to replace Price and it's not an easy task.

Same thing with Weber. Beaulieu, Tinordi, Sergachev were among the future corner stone of our d-core they have all been traded. Brook, Romanov, Harris , Juulsen, Struble and Fleury have potential but until they actually reach it potential is only potential.

Our prospect need to take the next step and be near impact players in the next 2 or 3 years or Weber and Price will be wasted for Nothing. They will not be easy to replace and Banking everything on the future without trading them is ill-advised.

 

[Runner77]

We did give him away.

I think there was more to be had from a career year. But, Chicago came knocking at the right time and it appeared moving Shaw quickly was an imperative in anticipation of UFA Frenzy. Didn’t seem that Shaw was actively shopped.

 

[417]

Fair point absolutely but if we “stole” him for 2 second round picks, why not be smart and get a better return? He had a solid season and I believe we could have at least gotten two 2nd rounders back.

Sure but I mean...at the end of the day, you could be quibbling over a dozen draft slots.

Furthermore...given that Shaw hasn't been able to stay healthy for his entire tenure with the Habs...that surely affected his value.

In fact, i'd argue if there was one team who would give you appropriate value for Andrew Shaw, it was the Chicago Blackhawks, who never wanted him gone in the first place.

 

[26Mats]

They didn't miss the boat...they didn't want to get on.

Stop this fantasy.

We'll see at the end of this year and 3 years whether they made the right decision or not. It's not a fantasy. It's an opinion.

 

[Runner77]

Fair point absolutely but if we “stole” him for 2 second round picks, why not be smart and get a better return? He had a solid season and I believe we could have at least gotten two 2nd rounders back.

Not just two second rounders. The Habs gave up two high second rounders for him initially.