Confirmed with Link: Guentzel re-signed 5yr/30M

[Peat]

McCurdy throwing some shade on the signing.

I wish I understood the league wide numbers on those to put it into perspective.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Why do people need to make me feel bad?

Can't everyone just be happy this isn't the WORST signing ever?

We got Jake for 5 more years. Happy now

 

[Jaded-Fan]

37 career playoff games

23 goals (including 20 at ES)
19 assists (including 17 at ES)

That's why JR is paying the full freight here.

Brass:

90 career playoff games

23 goals
36 assists

New long term deal soon.



All kidding aside, I linked McCurdy's as it adds to the discussion is all.

 

[Empoleon8771]

McCurdy throwing some shade on the signing.

So is McCurdy just judging players based on their shot charts and penalty differentials? Because I'm not seeing anything else there but that.

From the charts, it seems like the Penguins are stronger offensively but weaker defensively when he's on the ice, and Guentzel has a huge positive penalty differential. What's the problem there? Is McCurdy just not including his production or his playoff resume?

 

[ColePens]

I cannot argue McCurdy's success with some of his analytics, but Jake/Sid is something that works. It works in the playoffs. That signing is worth it. And they have him til 29 years old so they can let him go to UFA to get that overpaid deal into his 30s.

I'm super happy. I would have liked 6-7 years, but I am just so happy Jake is a Penguin through Sid's career.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

So is McCurdy just judging players based on their shot charts and penalty differentials? Because I'm not seeing anything else there but that.

From the charts, it seems like the Penguins are stronger offensively but weaker defensively when he's on the ice, and Guentzel has a huge positive penalty differential. What's the problem there? Is McCurdy just not including his production or his playoff resume?

It is an opinion. I like McCurdy, and his work is invaluable. But that is the thing, facts are facts, but how you read and assess those facts is very very subjective.

Example.

I read one of the top tech people who predicted 20 years ago what would occur in the coming couple of decades and got almost every thing right. He recently was asked to do it again and one of the more interesting notions was implanted computers in our brains which will give the world of knowledge at out fingertips. Everyone's fingertips.

That said having a library card does not mean you understand every book in the library.

You need not agree with McCurdy and he would be the first to tell you his opinions are not always right. Hell, his 'facts' are not always right either which is why he keeps refining his models, which mostly have gotten better over the years.

 

[AquaticBirdman]

Awesome term and cap hit. The fact that we'll get to see him and Sid together for at least 5 more years make it more than worth it.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It is an opinion. I like McCurdy, and his work is invaluable. But that is the thing, facts are facts, but how you read and assess those facts is very very subjective.

Example.

I read one of the top tech people who predicted 20 years ago what would occur in the coming couple of decades and got almost every thing right. He recently was asked to do it again and one of the more interesting notions was implanted computers in our brains which will give the world of knowledge at out fingertips. Everyone's fingertips.

That said having a library card does not mean you understand every book in the library.

You need not agree with McCurdy and he would be the first to tell you his opinions are not always right. Hell, his 'facts' are not always right either which is why he keeps refining his models, which mostly have gotten better over the years.

My question was more so what he was basing his player analysis on, because not including production seems like a pretty damn big thing to ignore (if he's not including it). At least from reading his tweet, he seems to acknowledge that Guentzel is a gifted goal scorer, but he seems to not want to pay him what he got because his shot and penalty differentials aren't good enough. That seems super flawed to me and just seems like a problem of someone over-emphasizing advanced stats. There are no individual advanced stats that can truly show a player's worth alone, so to try to say what a player deserves based on their shot differentials seems pretty foolish to me.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

My question was more so what he was basing his player analysis on, because not including production seems like a pretty damn big thing to ignore (if he's not including it). At least from reading his tweet, he seems to acknowledge that Guentzel is a gifted goal scorer, but he seems to not want to pay him what he got because his shot and penalty differentials aren't good enough. That seems super flawed to me and just seems like a problem of someone over-emphasizing advanced stats. There are no individual advanced stats that can truly show a player's worth alone, so to try to say what a player deserves based on their shot differentials seems pretty foolish to me.

I am guessing that he is questioning the sustainability of his production.

 

[EightyOne]

I sam guessing that he is questioning the sustainability of his production.

Which is only prudent to question on ANY contract on ANY player. To a point. No one can predict the future, so pissing on the trade now is silly. Piss on it when it sucks.

 

[Turin]

I hate when charts like that are given with analysis without counting stats, as if points don’t matter and aren’t meta enough.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

It’s a good deal if he continues to play as he has so far this year and in the POs....let’s hope he doesn’t pull a Rust after signing....

Rust is on pace for 20 goals which I don’t think anyone expected better when signing that contract. Had a very slow start but the goals and points are there.

Guentzel’s deal is about as good as we could expect with his playoffs and start to this season. Nice to have him locked up for thee rest of this team’s Crosby/Malkin era.

 

[The Greatest 101]

Of course old man gave out another overpriced contract. I mean, why not? Dude has been really generous since he signed Hunwick.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Of course old man gave out another overpriced contract. I mean, why not? Dude has been really generous since he signed Hunwick.

Ah what? Jake is almost at a PPG this season (only 3 on the PP). He’s above a PPG in the playoffs and his 2 seasons before that had him at 54 points per 82 games in the regular season.

He also fits extremely well with our best player. What were you expecting?

 

[Turin]

Of course old man gave out another overpriced contract. I mean, why not? Dude has been really generous since he signed Hunwick.

I wouldn’t have been happier with anything higher, but this is market value.

 

[EightyOne]

Is $700k for a 715sqft condo with 2 shared walls, a private boat dock, and located in Huntington Beach, CA a screaming deal for everyone?

Not really. But it IS market value for a place near the ocean in Southern California.

 

[The Greatest 101]

JR is destroying this team with his limited negotiating skill. It seems he can't get any player signed with us without overpaying a bit. It's a shame because in theory, after your team won back to back Stanley cups ,it should be easier to get discounts from players, right?

 

[EightyOne]

JR is destroying this team with his limited negotiating skill. It seems he can't get any player signed with us without overpaying a bit. It's a shame because in theory, after your team won back to back Stanley cups ,it should be easier to get discounts from players, right?

I can't think of many players who give hometown discounts or sign with 'contenders' for less money.

That is nearly unheard of, 101.

Sure, everyone wants a championship, but they really just want to maximize their income during the small window of a playing career.

 

[Turin]

JR is destroying this team with his limited negotiating skill. It seems he can't get any player signed with us without overpaying a bit. It's a shame because in theory, after your team won back to back Stanley cups ,it should be easier to get discounts from players, right?

No, it drives value up. This is market value. I’d like 5.5, but Sid gave him an extra .5 this year.

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

Complaining about a contract for 6 mil per year to lock up a top line winger who can score goals is sooooo 2007. Inflation, folks. Inflation.

 

[EightyOne]

Complaining about a contract for 6 mil per year to lock up a top line winger who can score goals is sooooo 2007. Inflation, folks. Inflation.

Look man, gum used to cost $0.05. I refuse to pay $1.79!

 

[Jaded-Fan]

For those whining about how the Pens will ever afford this:



The cap is climbing $2 million more than what we just gave Jake next season and beyond, $8 million per year over this year. Likely will continue to go up the five years of Jake's contract.

The Pens are fine.

 

[Clare2904]

Win win win, great news to wake up to.

 

[Peat]

In the comments he says around 4.5 - 5 mil AAV. McCurdy might have to start paying taxes in Dreamland if he spends anymore time there

Yeah. That's simply not happening with his numbers, not unless you want to give him a bridge that ends the moment he hits UFA.

There's 15 forwards currently in the NHL getting paid that much who signed contracts as RFAs and who will be UFAs when it ends. Only 6 of them have 60+ point paces, which is probably a fair estimate of the minimum of what we should expect from Guentzel going forwards. He is clearly too good to get that little.

Now, looking at the guys in the same bracket making 5.5m to 6.5m... okay, 60 points is currently very lower range. That'd put him equal to Ehlers, 5th lowest of 25. But the 60 point pace was based on a lower scoring NHL - if it stays high scoring, does Guentzel's pace stay where it is? which would be 10th lowest - and it doesn't account for inflation.

I mean, that range we're talking there? That currently includes Seguin, Barkov, MacKinnon, Scheifele, Panarin... there's a lot of guys who signed before the latest bout of inflation and are currently very undervalued. Seguin will get 9.85m next year, Wheeler 8.25m, Panarin similar... seven of those contracts expire next year and they're probably going to make the landscape of getting sort of money look quite a bit different, particularly when we add in Guentzel's peers. Oh, and the 8 guys in the 4.5-5m range whose contracts expire next year or the one after, most of whom are getting bumped up into here (or higher in Patches' case).

If you do look at Guentzel's peers - Ehlers, Zucker, Nylander - the contract looks even more reasonable for a 60 point pace, because that's where those cats are too... except none of them have shown Guentzel's upper range yet. Maybe there's something in the numbers that says what they're doing is more sustainable... but either way, 6m is the going rate for the headline numbers. 4.5m-5m? Nope. Not with this cap.

Actually, here's the isolates for the 3 -

Player Isolate (for Edgar) Nylander

Player Isolate (for Edgar) Ehlers

Player Isolate (for Edgar) Zucker

Is the ES defence number relative to the team or not? Because other than that number, I'm not seeing huge differences...

 

[JTG]

Barring a lock out and a cap readjustment, the last 2 years of that deal will look like a steal.