Proposal: Gibson to the Avs

[Richard88]

I see what you guys are saying, but they are not really good arguments. Anytime when you have someone that takes to almost their 30s to make it to the NHL, they don't have great potential to be high end players in this league. His performance in the KHL, while somewhat relevant, is pretty far from a guarantee that he does the same here, KHL is a different game, with different rules, and notably inferior level of goal scoring skills compared to here.

I'm not saying that he doesn't belong here, I'm just saying that to rely on him as a member of equally split tandem, on a team that's supposedly a favorite to win it all, is a bit insane.

There's a reason why The Athletic ranked Colorado's goalie tandem as the No.1 tandem in terms of bang-for-your-buck prior to the playoffs. Both Gruabuer and Francouz are solid in their roles as starter and backup when they're healthy, as their stats illustrate. The problem is that both of them are a bit unreliable healthy wise, which is why Avs fans like myself have been clamouring for another backup/3G.

Bang for your buck: Ranking all 31 goalie tandems based on their salary cap hit

 

[sandybridge]

The obvious target for a 1B situation would be to trade for Kuemper, especially if they can get him at 50% retention. Kuemper at $2.25m for 2 cup runs as Grubauer's 1B/backup would be perfect.

Yeah, that's what I would do as well, if I was in Sackic's position. Goaltending is the position where you need the sure thing (or something as close as you can afford) when you are at the top of your open window. Moving someone like Kaut + some other futures should be on the table for someone of the ilk of Gibson or Kuemper.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Francouz doesn't need to be a high-end starter in the league. What he has shown is an above-average - elite backup goaltender in a small sample size. Would a goalie like Gibson be ideal? Of course, but not at the expense of Newhook, and history suggests that.

Dallas rode Khudobin, a career backup to Game 6 of the SCF.
St. Louis won with a career AHLer goalie that just needed a shot.
Pittsburgh won B2B with a rookie goaltender on a hot streak.

Hell, even if we go back further, LA won with Quick who was suppose to be a stopgap goaltender until Bernier was ready. Chicago won with Niemi (a below average starter) and Crawford.

You know what almost all these teams have in common? None of them had an established, elite goaltender at the time, they all either established themselves as an elite goalie during the run or fizzled out.

Okay, let's look at this.

2020 TBL--Vas is one of the best young starting goalies in the league
2019 STL--Binnington caught fire and doesn't appear capable of replicating that. Lightning in a bottle. Was most definitely NOT their strategy.
2018 WAS--Holtby was one of the best playoff goaltenders of the entire last decade.
2017 PIT, 2016 PIT--Fleury was the long-term options and was faltering, they went to Murray, who was one of the best-pedigreed goalies in a while.
2015, 2013 Chicago--Corey Crawford, no doubts. Was established by that point.
2012, 2014 Kings--Jonathan Quick, no doubts. Was established by that point.
2011 Bruins--Tim Thomas, with Rask on deck as well. Maybe a little bit of in-between.

Completely disagree with the boldfaced. The goalies who came in and fizzled out weren't 'plans'. They were wishes. The other guys are all no-doubt starting options for each team that played 50-60 games a season.

And again I'm not convince the Avs have a problem, but there seems to be a lot of Avs fans trying to convince themselves of an exception.

 

[Richard88]

Goals against is largely a team stat. Yes the goalie is a huge part of that, but good teams generally have pretty good GF/G and GA/G.
The Aves are a very good team.

In your defense, I am impressed with how well Francouz played last season. Better then I thought.
I still would like to see some consistent performance before giving him the nod.

Both Grubauer and Francouz posted good advanced stats like GSAA and HDSV% last season, and Grubauer is top 2-3 in the league in all the relevant metrics so far this season.

Francouz has put up good numbers in the KHL, AHL, and NHL now and is established enough with the Avs to count on him as backup when he's healthy. The issue is that he's not healthy right now though.

 

[sandybridge]

There's a reason why The Athletic ranked Colorado's goalie tandem as the No.1 tandem in terms of bang-for-your-buck prior to the playoffs. Both Gruabuer and Francouz are solid in their roles as starter and backup when they're healthy, as their stats illustrate. The problem is that both of them are a bit unreliable healthy wise, which is why Avs fans like myself have been clamouring for another backup/3G.

Bang for your buck: Ranking all 31 goalie tandems based on their salary cap hit

Right, it's not that I don't think they can possibly perform in a run. A lot of goaltenders can, and have in the past, like the Raycrofts, Binningtons, Niemis' of this world. It doesn't mean that they are top goaltenders, and definitely doesn't mean that they are the sure thing when it comes to a postseason run. For a contender, ideally you would need something like Vasilevsky or similar to be sure that you have the most important position covered. Falling short of that, you might be able to get away with a tandem like Bishop/Khudobin.

 

[PAZ]

All I can really say to this page of discussion is "hope isn't a strategy."

Pointing out other goalie tandems have caught lightning in a bottle doesn't make it magically happen for the Avs. It doesn't make it NOT happen either and as mentioned earlier maybe Grubauer IS the guy but you have to have your head in the sand if you think that's not worth exploring options on. Like below I think is a solid response/option:





Yeah I don't want to use the word 'upgrade' but as I was saying to the other poster earlier what you see as "riding into the ground" I see as "normal starter workload" and why it's fair to have concerns about what he can do longer-term. The league is riddled with guys who are elite across 40 games.

But if you can get a 2nd reliable goaltender that definitely allows you to see what you have in Grubauer and as you say spell him if he needs breaks. I think that's a fair strategy. But calling a guy "good enough" doesn't exactly inspire confidence, haha.

Nobody is saying Grubuaer is an elite goaltender that has a track record. Nobody is denying that there are better goaltenders out there. Nobody is denying that we need another backup with Francouz out. But Grubauer is more than an adequate goalie that the Avs can win the cup with, and if healthy a Grubauer/Francouz tandem is perfectly acceptable and one of the better ones in the league.

What we're discussing is that it isn't worth the cost to acquire another starter caliber goaltender that would cost $5-6 mil or a premium asset to acquire an elite goaltender better than Grubuaer. A cheap backup that can post a .910 SV%? Sign me up.

 

[Richard88]

I will take every starting goalie that is better than either. If you think either of them are top 10 you're joking yourself. In the playoffs Tandems don't matter, superstars do.

Grubauer right now among goalies with at least 400 mins played:

• 0.937 sv% (2nd in the league, 0.01 behind Fleury)
• 1.64 GAA (2nd behind Fleury)
• 8.70 GSAA (2nd behind Vasilevsky)
• 0.888 HDSV% (3rd behind Petersen and Price)

Shorthanded stats (min. 30 mins played shorthanded):

• 0.943 sv% (5th)
• 3.02 GAA (5th)
• 4.50 GSAA (1st)
• 0.947 HDSV% (4th, though the top 3 have played 20-30 minutes less on the PK than Grubauer who's played 59:31)

Grubauer's career save % is .922 which is just shy of the best career average posted by Hasek at 0.923 sv%. Not saying that Grubauer is Hasek, just putting in perspective that his numbers are extremely good, and have consistently been good for his entire career to date.

Grubauer is also .924 with Colorado in the playoffs, including going 5-0 before his injury last year.

Clearly by any relevant metric Grubauer is a top 10 goalie. There are no questions about his quality (except maybe for his glovehand); the only legitimate questions are about his durability.

 

[Richard88]

Okay, let's look at this.

2020 TBL--Vas is one of the best young starting goalies in the league
2019 STL--Binnington caught fire and doesn't appear capable of replicating that. Lightning in a bottle. Was most definitely NOT their strategy.
2018 WAS--Holtby was one of the best playoff goaltenders of the entire last decade.
2017 PIT, 2016 PIT--Fleury was the long-term options and was faltering, they went to Murray, who was one of the best-pedigreed goalies in a while.
2015, 2013 Chicago--Corey Crawford, no doubts. Was established by that point.
2012, 2014 Kings--Jonathan Quick, no doubts. Was established by that point.
2011 Bruins--Tim Thomas, with Rask on deck as well. Maybe a little bit of in-between.

Completely disagree with the boldfaced. The goalies who came in and fizzled out weren't 'plans'. They were wishes. The other guys are all no-doubt starting options for each team that played 50-60 games a season.

And again I'm not convince the Avs have a problem, but there seems to be a lot of Avs fans trying to convince themselves of an exception.

Grubauer's numbers are on par with a lot of the goalies on your list. The only question is if he's durable to carry a 50 game+ workload.

No Avs fan is under the illusion that Avs don't need help in net. We absolutely do need a good 3G if not an outright backup. A 1B would be great but will probably be prohibitively expensive, particularly as we'll have to spend some serious asset(s) on 3C as well.

 

[lwvs84]

5 of the 8 worst teams in the NHL last season were in the East. Detroit and Ottawa would have picked 1 and 2 without the lottery.

I'm not saying you're wrong about Avs not needing Gibson (I think they should go for a cheaper option), but 3 of 4 worst offenses were in the west (also 4 of 6 and 5 of 8). There were only 2 top 10 offenses in the West, and one of them was the Avs (best in the West).

 

[Richard88]

Right, it's not that I don't think they can possibly perform in a run. A lot of goaltenders can, and have in the past, like the Raycrofts, Binningtons, Niemis' of this world. It doesn't mean that they are top goaltenders, and definitely doesn't mean that they are the sure thing when it comes to a postseason run. For a contender, ideally you would need something like Vasilevsky or similar to be sure that you have the most important position covered. Falling short of that, you might be able to get away with a tandem like Bishop/Khudobin.

The truly elite goaltenders like Gibson, Vasilevsky, and Hellebuyck are extremely rare, and if you want an elite goalie like that you need to draft them for yourself. Goalies are also extremely volatile like we've seen with Bobrovsky so there's a huge risk with trading big assets for one or signing them to a huge UFA deal.

The most realistic thing you can do is to acquire a goalie at an affordable price in the 5-10 range like Grubauer, and then draft goalies in the hope that they'll be the next No.1 - like the Avs with Annunen.

Grubauer has been excellent this season and if his groin holds up we're in good shape. Just need to get a backup who's solid and healthy so Grubauer can stay fresh and manage his starts.

 

[sandybridge]

Grubauer's numbers are on par with a lot of the goalies on your list. The only question is if he's durable to carry a 50 game+ workload.

No Avs fan is under the illusion that Avs don't need help in net. We absolutely do need a good 3G if not an outright backup. A 1B would be great but will probably be prohibitively expensive, particularly as we'll have to spend some serious asset(s) on 3C as well.

Yeah, 3C is the other position of great concern, when I look at the Aves lineup.

If they can get someone of the quality of Holik for that, along with shoring up the goaltending, then they would be as much of a sure thing this year, as any team in the last decade. Maybe someone like Backlund if they can get some retention?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Right, it's not that I don't think they can possibly perform in a run. A lot of goaltenders can, and have in the past, like the Raycrofts, Binningtons, Niemis' of this world. It doesn't mean that they are top goaltenders, and definitely doesn't mean that they are the sure thing when it comes to a postseason run. For a contender, ideally you would need something like Vasilevsky or similar to be sure that you have the most important position covered. Falling short of that, you might be able to get away with a tandem like Bishop/Khudobin.

There is no such thing as a "sure thing" when it comes to a post season run. Just a couple of years ago, Vasilevsky won the Vezina and the Bolts put up a 128 point President's Trophy winning season and they still got swept in the first round by the Blue Jackets, with Vasilevsky allowing 15 goals on 104 shots (0.856 SV%). A good playoff run is what leads to winning the Cup, not having the best goalie on paper.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I'm not saying you're wrong about Avs not needing Gibson (I think they should go for a cheaper option), but 3 of 4 worst offenses were in the west (also 4 of 6 and 5 of 8). There were only 2 top 10 offenses in the West, and one of them was the Avs (best in the West).

And the East had 7 of the 10 worst defenses. The West also won the Vezina and the Norris.

 

[Richard88]

Yeah, 3C is the other position of great concern, when I look at the Aves lineup.

If they can get someone of the quality of Holik for that, along with shoring up the goaltending, then they would be as much of a sure thing this year, as any team in the last decade. Maybe someone like Backlund if they can get some retention?

No such thing as a sure thing in this league. Tampa Bay are still a powerhouse as well.

Avs getting a 3C and a backup goalie would give us a lot more confidence going into the playoffs for sure, those are the two biggest needs by far.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Okay, let's look at this.

2020 TBL--Vas is one of the best young starting goalies in the league
2019 STL--Binnington caught fire and doesn't appear capable of replicating that. Lightning in a bottle. Was most definitely NOT their strategy.
2018 WAS--Holtby was one of the best playoff goaltenders of the entire last decade.
2017 PIT, 2016 PIT--Fleury was the long-term options and was faltering, they went to Murray, who was one of the best-pedigreed goalies in a while.
2015, 2013 Chicago--Corey Crawford, no doubts. Was established by that point.
2012, 2014 Kings--Jonathan Quick, no doubts. Was established by that point.
2011 Bruins--Tim Thomas, with Rask on deck as well. Maybe a little bit of in-between.

Completely disagree with the boldfaced. The goalies who came in and fizzled out weren't 'plans'. They were wishes. The other guys are all no-doubt starting options for each team that played 50-60 games a season.

And again I'm not convince the Avs have a problem, but there seems to be a lot of Avs fans trying to convince themselves of an exception.

You make valid points. Everyone sees that. But it comes down to choosing to go from a top 10 goalie to a top five goalie even if it means finding a 2C.

I think if a trade for Gibson were to happen, the two make good trade partners. The proposals have been within the scope of reason for the most part. But it’s a big decision to make a modestly incremental improvement at G if that also means finding a 2 or 3C.

 

[lwvs84]

And the East had 7 of the 10 worst defenses. The West also won the Vezina and the Norris.

Well, it does make sense that the best offenses and best defenses are somewhat inversely related, no? Point is, the east is more offense based and West is more defense. If you traded Vas and Avs duo, the goal differential would have been bigger than 4.

Either way, it doesn't matter. If Avs duo is healthy and doesn't absolutely choke, they are very much good enough to win the Cup. Avs don't need Gibson to win. They should use lesser assets to make more minor upgrades.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Well, it does make sense that the best offenses and best defenses are somewhat inversely related, no? Point is, the east is more offense based and West is more defense. If you traded Vas and Avs duo, the goal differential would have been bigger than 4.

Either way, it doesn't matter. If Avs duo is healthy and doesn't absolutely choke, they are very much good enough to win the Cup. Avs don't need Gibson to win. They should use lesser assets to make more minor upgrades.

From last year -

Vasilevsky against the East - 23-7-1 with a 0.926 SV%
Vasilevsky against the West - 12-7-2 with a 0.904 SV%

Grubauer against the East - 9-5-2 with a 0.922 SV%
Grubauer against the West - 9-7-2 with a 0.910 SV%

Francouz against the East - 11-1-2 with a 0.944 SV%
Francouz against the West - 10-6-2 with a 0.903 SV%

Why should I believe that Vasilevsky would do better in more games against the Western conference than Grubauer/Francouz would do with more games against the East?

 

[Richard88]

From last year -

Vasilevsky against the East - 23-7-1 with a 0.926 SV%
Vasilevsky against the West - 12-7-2 with a 0.904 SV%

Grubauer against the East - 9-5-2 with a 0.922 SV%
Grubauer against the West - 9-7-2 with a 0.910 SV%

Francouz against the East - 11-1-2 with a 0.944 SV%
Francouz against the West - 10-6-2 with a 0.903 SV%

Why should I believe that Vasilevsky would do better in more games against the Western conference than Grubauer/Francouz would do with more games against the East?

That's a phenomenal stat line against east teams, wow. Admittedly he probably did get many of the "easier" starts as a backup, but you can only beat what's infront of you and he did an excellent job in those games.

 

[Nihiliste]

I like Gru, but I would feel a lot more confident with Gibson to line up against Vasi, and to face Kucherov, Point, et al.

I would probably sell the farm for him, but we can't afford it for structural reasons, present and future. Most pressing needs area a 3C and a non-injured backup, though I'd like to make some other tweak to the bottom 6 too.

 

[mackinnon29]

No problem with getting another goalie but not at the expense of emptying the farm. Gibson is world class but that’s a lot to give for a goalie. Is he worth it right now? There’s a good chance but you don’t see those kinds of trades the same way you rarely see goalies picked in the top ten for the draft. There are lots of vet goalies come trade deadline that won’t cost you this. I’m confident in Gru and Frankie just would be nice to have another confident goalie just in case of injury. Don’t want to see another 3rd string coming off the bench.

 

[McJedi]

Yeah, that's what I would do as well, if I was in Sackic's position. Goaltending is the position where you need the sure thing (or something as close as you can afford) when you are at the top of your open window. Moving someone like Kaut + some other futures should be on the table for someone of the ilk of Gibson or Kuemper.

I would trade Kaut, Frankie and the 2021 1st for two years of Kuemper.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I would trade Kaut, Frankie and the 2021 1st for two years of Kuemper.

Sakic hasn't traded a 1st round pick since becoming GM. I doubt he'd do it for a goalie.

 

[Postanin CB Ting]

Gru has been solid for us, like really good.
Wonder if altitude affects goalies this reminds me of Varly. Has he been healthy since going to long island?

 

[Richard88]

I would trade Kaut, Frankie and the 2021 1st for two years of Kuemper.

I'd assume that there would be 50% retention with that price. But even so I would hope for more of a long-term solution than just 2 runs with Kuemper at that price. If we didn't have Grubauer then it's a price I'd pay, but it's a high price to pay for a backup.

 

[McJedi]

I'd assume that there would be 50% retention with that price. But even so I would hope for more of a long-term solution than just 2 runs with Kuemper at that price. If we didn't have Grubauer then it's a price I'd pay, but it's a high price to pay for a backup.

It’s a win now trade for sure. Plus the 2021 draft isn’t a great one.