Proposal: Gibson to the Avs

[Mrb1p]

I think Grubauer is good enough for the Avs to win andn they should use these assets elsewhere, but its still a good trade value wise, maybe a bit heavy for Avs.

 

[Richard88]

It’s a win now trade for sure. Plus the 2021 draft isn’t a great one.

Have I understood you right in this thread and the Backlund thread that you'd give up Kaut + 1st + Francouz for a backup goalie (Kuemper), but you wouldn't move 1st + Timmins/Kaut + Compher for an high-end 3C in Backlund?

 

[PAZ]

Gru has been solid for us, like really good.
Wonder if altitude affects goalies this reminds me of Varly. Has he been healthy since going to long island?

Varly plays quite a bit different now. Relies way more on positioning compared to just his athleticism. The Islanders also have one of the best goalie coaches in the league. Add in Trotz's system and he doesn't need to do nearly as many acrobatic saves as he did when he was with us.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Varly plays quite a bit different now. Relies way more on positioning compared to just his athleticism. The Islanders also have one of the best goalie coaches in the league. Add in Trotz's system and he doesn't need to do nearly as many acrobatic saves as he did when he was with us.

Are you honestly suggesting that our great defensive core with Nate Guenin, Shane Orr'Brien, Ryan O'Byrne, and Matt Hunwick, playing in Roy's great defensive system, forced Varly to stand on his head most nights? I don't believe it.

 

[McJedi]

Have I understood you right in this thread and the Backlund thread that you'd give up Kaut + 1st + Francouz for a backup goalie (Kuemper), but you wouldn't move 1st + Timmins/Kaut + Compher for an high-end 3C in Backlund?

Yes. I don’t trust the health of Grubs and I like the shorter term in Kuempers contract. The term on Backlund contract is a problem for me.

I’d much rather have the cap space to sign some ring chasing bottom six forwards to one year deals. Just have a revolving door of two/three guys we sign every offseason that want to go for it. Eric Staal or Koivu (Maroon for Tampa) would be perfect examples. Just a player like that which would be happy to sign a one year deal for like $1mm to play on a top team to see if he can get his name on the cup. Would cost the Avs no assets and just marginal cap space. The Broncos did this well when Manning was their QB. Tampa does it well in the NHL. Denver is a desirable free agent destination. I think we could do it too.

I think term is really overrated around here. I’d love to see the Avs use short term contracts for the foreseeable future with all their mid tier players. Think Bura/Kadri level on down.

 

[Richard88]

Yes. I don’t trust the health of Grubs and I like the shorter term in Kuempers contract. The term on Backlund contract is a problem for me.

I’d much rather have the cap space to sign some ring chasing bottom six forwards to one year deals. Just have a revolving door of two/three guys we sign every offseason that want to go for it. Eric Staal or Koivu (Maroon for Tampa) would be perfect examples. Just a player like that which would be happy to sign a one year deal for like $1mm to play on a top team to see if he can get his name on the cup. Would cost the Avs no assets and just marginal cap space. The Broncos did this well when Manning was their QB. Tampa does it well in the NHL. Denver is a desirable free agent destination. I think we could do it too.

I think term is really overrated around here. I’d love to see the Avs use short term contracts for the foreseeable future with all their mid tier players. Think Bura/Kadri level on down.

I agree about keeping depth guys to 1-2 year contracts for the most part. I'm not actually entirely convinced Backlund would be a good idea given the term on his deal, that is a valid concern. Cap flexibility is so valuable in this league right now and you don't want to put yourself in a potentially bad situation with a bad contract. But that's where retention would be important.

How about this:

• Backlund ($2m retained) + Bennett ($1m retained) for Compher ($1m retained) + Timmins + 1st
• ($3.35m x 4) + ($1.55m x 1) for ($2.5m x 3) + ($925k x 1)

That's $4.9m for $3.425m (Avs take on ~$1.5m).

The retention by year would be:

• 2020/21: $3m retention for CGY, $1m retention for COL (Real dollars is 22% of this at deadline)
• 2021/22: $2m retention for CGY, $1m retention for COL.
• 2022/23: $2m retention for CGY, $1m retention for COL.
• 2023/24: $2m retention for CGY

That effectively manages the retention to be at appropriate levels through out the duration of the contracts, rather than just having an outright $2m retention for CGY throughout.

This season Avs would benefit from $2m net retention ($3m vs $1m, though the actual dollars are only 22% of that as it's at the deadline). In year 2 and 3 it's only $1m retained by Calgary effectively. Then in the final year when Backlund is 34-35 years old Avs would get an extra $1m off the books when Compher's contract expires, which builds some leeway into the trade to compensate for Backlund aging. Backlund at $3.35m would also be much more moveable at any stage than if he didn't have retention.

From Calgary's perspective they would get out of the bad years of Backlund's contract except for $2m at the end, which would probably be preferable to having him at $5.35m at that stage. Compher's contract would also come off the books before Backlund's last year.

 

[sandybridge]

No such thing as a sure thing in this league. Tampa Bay are still a powerhouse as well.

Avs getting a 3C and a backup goalie would give us a lot more confidence going into the playoffs for sure, those are the two biggest needs by far.

Maybe work out a deal with AZ for Schmaltz + Kuemper ?

Something around Kaut + Timmins + 1st ?

 

[Perratrooper]

Maybe work out a deal with AZ for Schmaltz + Kuemper ?

Something around Kaut + Timmins + 1st ?

I would think Colorado would have to add as well as throwing cap back. I think Ranta+Schmaltz might be more desirable too, given it might cost less.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Maybe work out a deal with AZ for Schmaltz + Kuemper ?

Something around Kaut + Timmins + 1st ?

I have several questions.

Where are the Avs getting the cap space to make this work?

Why would anyone trade for Schmaltz with that cap hit in the first place?

Why are we paying starter prices for Keumper when we really only need a rental backup?

In what world is a goalie and a cap dump worth a 1st and 2 good prospects?

 

[Richard88]

I have several questions.

Where are the Avs getting the cap space to make this work?

Why would anyone trade for Schmaltz with that cap hit in the first place?

Why are we paying starter prices for Keumper when we really only need a rental backup?

In what world is a goalie and a cap dump worth a 1st and 2 good prospects?

For Kuemper to work it would need to be 50% retained unless Avs plan on moving on from Grubauer next season. Avs can't afford to resign Grubauer ($5-6m) and have Kuemper making $4.5m. Kuemper at $2.25m as backup would work though.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

For Kuemper to work it would need to be 50% retained unless Avs plan on moving on from Grubauer next season. Avs can't afford to resign Grubauer ($5-6m) and have Kuemper making $4.5m. Kuemper at $2.25m as backup would work though.

Retention most likely drives the asking price even higher, making it an even worse idea for the Avs. We don't need to pay "starter with 50% retention for next season" prices in order to get a short term backup.

 

[Richard88]

Retention most likely drives the asking price even higher, making it an even worse idea for the Avs. We don't need to pay "starter with 50% retention for next season" prices in order to get a short term backup.

I agree. That's why I don't think Kuemper is all that realistic. Whoever trades for him is going to A) pay the price of a starting goaltender, and B) not expect retention, neither of which is ideal for Colorado.

Raanta is a much more realistic target.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I agree. That's why I don't think Kuemper is all that realistic. Whoever trades for him is going to A) pay the price of a starting goaltender, and B) not expect retention, neither of which is ideal for Colorado.

Raanta is a much more realistic target.

I'd be much better with Raanta. Or Miller. Or Bernier. I'd even consider Dubnyk.

 

[Richard88]

I'd be much better with Raanta. Or Miller. Or Bernier. I'd even consider Dubnyk.

Big swerve on that one.

Not only is there the Avs-Wild connection there, but he's statistically been one of the leagues worst goalies the last two seasons.

From the start of 2019/20 season:

• 0.728 HDSV%, which is 89th in the league overall, and by far the worst among goalies with over 20 starts. The next worst is Holtby at .768.

• In that same timeframe he also has the 6th worst GSAA in the league:

• If we look only at this season, don't be fooled by his 0.910 sv% and 2.88 GAA this season, because looking deeper his numbers are dreadful, as exemplified by his 0.684 HDSV% which is 5th worst in the league.

 

[sandybridge]

I have several questions.

Where are the Avs getting the cap space to make this work?

Why would anyone trade for Schmaltz with that cap hit in the first place?

Why are we paying starter prices for Keumper when we really only need a rental backup?

In what world is a goalie and a cap dump worth a 1st and 2 good prospects?

I assume there would be some retentions on either Kuemper or Raanta (and/or Aves add some cap player back). If some cap balancing is there, I don't think Schamltz's cap is a big issue.

Schmaltz can definitely play up to the worth of that contract, not sure what you mean there.

I don't think the Aves only need a backup, they need a co-starter with Grubauer at minimum; hence Kuemper. Raanta could also work, although not an ideal situation.

 

[sandybridge]

I would think Colorado would have to add as well as throwing cap back. I think Ranta+Schmaltz might be more desirable too, given it might cost less.

Yeah, Raanta + Schmaltz could also work, but that still puts them a step below VGK and TBL in terms of goaltending.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Big swerve on that one.

Not only is there the Avs-Wild connection there, but he's statistically been one of the leagues worst goalies the last two seasons.

From the start of 2019/20 season:

• 0.728 HDSV%, which is 89th in the league overall, and by far the worst among goalies with over 20 starts. The next worst is Holtby at .768.

View attachment 399979

• In that same timeframe he also has the 6th worst GSAA in the league:

View attachment 399981

• If we look only at this season, don't be fooled by his 0.910 sv% and 2.88 GAA this season, because looking deeper his numbers are dreadful, as exemplified by his 0.684 HDSV% which is 5th worst in the league.

View attachment 399984

After further consideration... Dubnyk is no longer in the running.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Yeah, Raanta + Schmaltz could also work, but that still puts them a step below VGK and TBL in terms of goaltending.

$5.85m per year for Schmaltz doesn't work.

 

[sandybridge]

$5.85m per year for Schmaltz doesn't work.

Not sure what you mean there again, 5.8 is pretty close to fair for his production (especially considering that players on AZ tend to have lower production numbers). He's basically a lower end 2C. Like I said, there would likely be some retentions and/or players sent back for cap (i.e. Compher, Calvert, etc) .

 

[Perratrooper]

Yeah, Raanta + Schmaltz could also work, but that still puts them a step below VGK and TBL in terms of goaltending.

Grubauer has better numbers than Keumper tho..

 

[sandybridge]

Grubauer has better numbers than Keumper tho..

Kuemper also plays on a much weaker team, a team basically at times relies on him being the lynchpin in certain games.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I assume there would be some retentions on either Kuemper or Raanta (and/or Aves add some cap player back). If some cap balancing is there, I don't think Schamltz's cap is a big issue.

Schmaltz can definitely play up to the worth of that contract, not sure what you mean there.

I don't think the Aves only need a backup, they need a co-starter with Grubauer at minimum; hence Kuemper. Raanta could also work, although not an ideal situation.

You don't build a successful team by acquiring overpaid players who you hope will one day play up to their contracts. You build a successful team by finding guys who can outplay their contracts.

I also haven't heard your reason why the Avs need a co-starter with Grubauer, who is currently top 5 in pretty much every meaningful goalie statistic on the season.

 

[sandybridge]

You don't build a successful team by acquiring overpaid players who you hope will one day play up to their contracts. You build a successful team by finding guys who can outplay their contracts.

I also haven't heard your reason why the Avs need a co-starter with Grubauer, who is currently top 5 in pretty much every meaningful goalie statistic on the season.

I doubt that you will be able to find a team full of players that outplay their contracts. Schmaltz basically player upto a level close to his contract, gap is small if there at all. Again not sure where you are getting the impression that Schmaltz is a cap dump.

As for the goaltending, I don't think Grubauer would be able to duel against Vasi or the Vegas tandem, no matter what his short term number says. Grubauer is good enough, if healthy, for an average playoff team. He's not the same level of goalie that guys like Vasi or Rask are.

 

[Perratrooper]

Kuemper also plays on a much weaker team, a team basically at times relies on him being the lynchpin in certain games.

Yeah, but that doesn’t mean Keumper will top Grubs numbers this year. Don’t want to spend a ton of assets on a goalie that might be better than a goalie who is playing top 5 caliber right now.

 

[sandybridge]

Yeah, but that doesn’t mean Keumper will top Grubs numbers this year. Don’t want to spend a ton of assets on a goalie that might be better than a goalie who is playing top 5 caliber right now.

Right, not necessarily this year. Getting Kuemper would put them basically in the same situation that VGK is, too good (but not elite) starters.