OT: General OT MEGATHREAD (No Politics) - Read OP before posting

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RandyHolt

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Nov 3, 2006
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My requisite hurricane ping.

There are hot towers going up around the eyewall.

4ddc4b76b9630875f4d9e34ac81addae.jpg
 

g00n

Retired Global Mod
Nov 22, 2007
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Not exact but similar track to Katrina. Originated a bit west, should make landfall a bit east, but yeah. Lovely.
 

RandyHolt

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Nov 3, 2006
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You may be on the famed east side Twabby

From someone smarter than me: "That burst on the northern semicircle is really impressive. Almost looks like it's trying to drill a hole through the tropopause with all of the insane outflow and gravity waves being generated. Hires IR seems to hint at a big mesovortex rotating around the center.

IR Loop - Hurricane MICHAEL
 
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HunterSThompson

[}=[][][][][]
Jun 19, 2007
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Washington, DC
You may be on the famed east side Twabby

From someone smarter than me: "That burst on the northern semicircle is really impressive. Almost looks like it's trying to drill a hole through the tropopause with all of the insane outflow and gravity waves being generated. Hires IR seems to hint at a big mesovortex rotating around the center.

IR Loop - Hurricane MICHAEL
English only please.
 
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RandyHolt

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Nov 3, 2006
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English only please.

Hunker down in my bunker, neighborino

I did find this rather ominous post from NC met rather easy to understand.

"I don't usually make these posts, but there's a few things slightly disturbing about this one to me from a loss of life/property standpoint...

- Forward movement is going to bring this in by early/midday tomorrow throwing a lot of people's preparations off
- The persistent steady strengthening despite moderate shear, which is expected to decrease today
- Forward motion will bring wind impacts well inland
- Surge potential on the right side given the shape of the Florida Coastline combined with the overall size of the Cane(Circulation/extension of Hurricane Force Winds)
- Consistent model projections of a strengthening storm up until landfall
- Lastly and perhaps not the most important, but it's appearance this morning on Visible/IR. The spiraling convective bands, developing eye, improving outflow/symmetry to me points towards continued strengthening all day

Sometimes the worst/most memorable storms tend to slip up on us at the last minute... "

SURGE- Zeroing in on Tallahassee


surgebad.png.8929414d9caa273e79a0b19217679e1f.png
 
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RandyHolt

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Anyone thinking about going for a little swim off the coast of Florida? Here is your updated marine forecast

Hurricane conditions. Southeast winds 78 to 88 knots with gusts to around 125 knots becoming southwest 75 to 85 knots with gusts to around 115 knots in the afternoon. Seas 62 feet with occasional seas up to 79 feet subsiding to 41 feet with occasional seas up to 52 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. protected waters extremely rough. Thunderstorms in the morning. showers through the day. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
 
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AlexBrovechkin8

At least there was 2018.
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Feb 18, 2012
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This one looks bad. I saw a story this morning about business owners choosing to hunker down and wait it out and I just shook my head. Do people not understand what 15-20 feet of storm surge means, or what it could do to a community? This storm has the potential to redesign the coastal areas where the storm makes landfall. If it really is 15-20 feet, homes will be completely submerged in water... there is no moving to higher ground in that scenario.
 

RandyHolt

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Nov 3, 2006
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Best case as of now is if it slides just east of Panama City... best case for all but those few in the path/NE. As long as they are ~25 feet above sea level, people should be fine from the surge. The wind may do the most damage since its not hitting a dense area at landfall (total guess). Tallahasseenze may have a wild ride today on the east side. This cane has ramped up in the face of many obstacles.

Live Storm Chasing

Brett Adair was in Mexico Beach / NE side / ground zero- bugging out to Port Saint Joe Hospital because they have a parking lot ~25ft ASL

A daytime landfall provides a great chance to watch a CAT4 show its force. Jeff Piotrowski is on the move - try Periscope.

Links
NDBC - Station SGOF1 Recent Data
IR Loop - Hurricane MICHAEL
calypsowebcam.com
Coastal Flood
 
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NobodyBeatsTheWiz

Happy now?
Jun 26, 2004
23,422
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The Burbs
This one looks bad. I saw a story this morning about business owners choosing to hunker down and wait it out and I just shook my head. Do people not understand what 15-20 feet of storm surge means, or what it could do to a community? This storm has the potential to redesign the coastal areas where the storm makes landfall. If it really is 15-20 feet, homes will be completely submerged in water... there is no moving to higher ground in that scenario.
My question to these people is always "what do you think you can do by staying?"

It's completely nonsensical. You can't help anything or prevent the storm from doing what it wants to your home/business. All you're doing is creating a potential burden on rescuers, endangering their lives in the process.
 

Ajax1995

Registered User
Dec 9, 2002
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My question to these people is always "what do you think you can do by staying?"

It's completely nonsensical. You can't help anything or prevent the storm from doing what it wants to your home/business. All you're doing is creating a potential burden on rescuers, endangering their lives in the process.

My understanding is that it isn’t about being able to do something during the storm but the possibility of not being able to get back to your property after evacuating and the increased amount of damage resulting.
 

NobodyBeatsTheWiz

Happy now?
Jun 26, 2004
23,422
1,973
The Burbs
My understanding is that it isn’t about being able to do something during the storm but the possibility of not being able to get back to your property after evacuating and the increased amount of damage resulting.
With many people, it's absolutely about being able to do something during the storm. That and petty stubbornness. The justification of not being able to get back soon after is just as nonsensical. If you can't get back, there's a reason you can't get back. What are the chances any damage could be limited be a timely return? Not worth risking your life and the lives of others.
 

RandyHolt

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Nov 3, 2006
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This storm was pretty small but extremely powerful. It still is, I imagine.

NHC needs to sell this stuff as more than "Cat2 or Cat3". It was basically a tornado 30 miles wide with 24 hours notice. No one would stay in place for a tornado coming straight at them with time to leave.

I still am amazed at the luck Florida had that Maria grazed Cuba, which made it fizzle out before hitting Key West. It was much bigger than Mike but as powerful and would have largely destroyed most of the Keys and presume much more. Including reshape the keys, like Ocean City MD was in 1933 when the inlet was formed.

I hope I wasn't the only one that caught Brett Adair's car getting washed away with his camera still broadcasting. Its out on facebook. Skip to ~30min.
 
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