News Article: Gardiner update looking positive

[PromisedLand]

Lol you don’t have to convince me, the reason +/- even gets as much blow back as it does is because statistically illiterate people for decades used it as a be all end all method of determining defensive impact.

That being said, I think if you’re going to use stats for analysis, right now the two best things to look at are Evolving Hockey’s RAPM and HockeyViz’s isolates threat. Both those measure give much more context and in an easier fashion. Regression and Gradient Boosting aren’t end all be all techniques, but they essentially take into account everything, score effects, competition, teammates, strength, shooting talent etc...

convincing and discussions are for the folks that shape their opinions through reason and logic; not for close minded blowhards

as my late grandfather, bless him, used to say: "you cannot argue or debate with stupid; it is a waste of limited time we all have on this planet"

have fun....

 

[lebdafor norris]

this is what is absolutely STUPID about the majority of stat community. There are smart ones in that community that apply context when looking at number but majority of them are a JOKE

here are a few examples:

even strength plus minus (all situations)

Player	Position	GP	TOI	GF	GA	plus/minus
Morgan Rielly	D	74	1422	108	78	30
Ron Hainsey	D	74	1276	83	57	26
Jake Gardiner	D	60	1151	66	45	21
Nikita Zaitsev	D	74	1292	57	59	-2
Travis Dermott	D	60	964	43	44	-1
Igor Ozhiganov	D	50	706	27	26	1
Jake Muzzin	D	25	445	25	18	7
Martin Marincin	D	19	255	11	13	-2
Justin Holl	D	8	102	3	11	-8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

even strength plus/minus (when leading)

Player	Position	GP	TOI	GF	GA	plus/minus
Morgan Rielly	D	74	473	36	24	12
Ron Hainsey	D	74	474	39	25	14
Nikita Zaitsev	D	74	497	34	27	7
Jake Gardiner	D	60	426	25	16	9
Travis Dermott	D	60	348	15	14	1
Igor Ozhiganov	D	50	287	11	11	0
Jake Muzzin	D	25	120	9	5	4
Martin Marincin	D	19	79	5	5	0
Justin Holl	D	8	5	0	1	-1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

even strength plus/minus (when trailing)

Player	Position	GP	TOI	GF	GA	plus/minus
Morgan Rielly	D	74	463	35	31	4
Jake Gardiner	D	60	351	20	19	1
Ron Hainsey	D	74	373	21	16	5
Nikita Zaitsev	D	74	371	11	13	-2
Travis Dermott	D	60	307	15	17	-2
Igor Ozhiganov	D	50	217	7	9	-2
Jake Muzzin	D	25	168	11	6	5
Martin Marincin	D	19	97	3	7	-4
Justin Holl	D	8	53	3	8	-5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

even strength plus/minus (when tied)

Player	Position	GP	TOI	GF	GA	plus/minus
Morgan Rielly	D	74	487	37	23	14
Ron Hainsey	D	74	429	23	16	7
Nikita Zaitsev	D	74	425	12	19	-7
Jake Gardiner	D	60	374	21	10	11
Travis Dermott	D	60	309	13	13	0
Igor Ozhiganov	D	50	202	9	6	3
Jake Muzzin	D	25	157	5	7	-2
Martin Marincin	D	19	80	3	1	2
Justin Holl	D	8	44	0	2	-2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Summary:
In all situations Hainsey second on the team only to Rielly
When team is leading Hainsey is 1st on the team protecting the lead
When trailing Hainsey is 1st on the team (tied with muzzin)
when game is tied hainsey is 3rd on the team

what do these situations mean?

• when the team has the lead and when babcock leans on hainsey more to protect the lead he has done the job; i.e. leafs turtle to protect lead - plus/minus here for defenders is going to look bad. Hainsey gets the worst end of the stick
  
• when the team is trailing and babcock leans on other offensive d-men to get the goals and opposition is turtling to protect their lead; Hainsey again gets the short end of the stick as he is not necessarily relied upon to get the goals as opposition may surrender a goal or two

why is this statement true?
the entire league's CF% just jumps when they are trailing; not because they become godly but because other teams turtle
http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?repor...gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=shotAttemptsPctgBehind

• i could go on aobut tied situations as well; but i am lazy i think above information should be good enough to provide you examples of why CONTEXT is very important

Now, lets talk about something else that is also part of the game. Special teams.

PP and PK are part of the game; they don't exist outside of the game. Hainsey has done a pretty good job on the PK; i.e. he gets his job done on the PK while the people playing on PP have not get their jobs done.


Hainsey is fine because a few stat fanboys do not know how to apply context and analyze information correctly doesn't make hainsey obsolete.

P.S. Rielly is having a career year playing beside Hainsey because Rielly doesn't have to cover for his partner's mistakes; Rielly can do his thing because he knows he has a reliable partner

wtf does that mean?

• it means the same thing that
• markov meant to subban in montreal
• methot meant to karlsson in ottawa
• tj brodie means to giordano
• ryan has meant to burns this season

Hockey it isn't that difficult to understand when you apply context and do not apply statistics BLINDLY

Leafs ES GA/60 (when trailing)- 3.15
Leafs ES GA/60 (when Leading)- 2.79
Leafs ESGF/60 (when leading)- 3.86
Leafs ESGF/60(when trailing)- 3.15
Its true that the CF% of a team will likely jump up when they are trailing as they are more likely to make those high risk plays in order to drive possession while the opposing team turtles in response, however, as with the case with the Leafs this year, playing more minutes while the Leafs are trailing is more likely to hurt Hainsey's +/- than the other way around and that is because of those same high risk plays that the players make in the hopes of tying the game.

The game against Nashville for example had the 2 teams playing a well a structured, defensive game for the first 2 periods (well for the most part), as time was still plenty and the Leafs were only 1 goal behind, the 3rd period however saw the Leafs' D pinching more without proper support in the hopes of keeping possession alive and that resulted in a 3 on 1 Nash breakaway that Andy had to make 2 great saves on and a Filip Forsberg breakaway empty netter that would have likely turn into a goal even if Freddie was on net.

 

[Sypher04]

Umm Reilly was the reason that pair was broken up, not Babcock. Reilly requested to be moved back to LD.

He did say after the fact that's he more comfortable on the left, but I don't recall anything ever saying he requested it. Unless you can provide some kind of source for that, then it never happened.

 

[Sypher04]

Never ever argue using facts when dealing with a Reilly Fanboy

What facts? He posted a bunch of unsupported claims, no different than I did. Also how am I being a Rielly fanboy? All I'm saying is that he didn't struggle on the right, which he didnt. That pairing looked good in their 6 games

But hey, nice contribution to the discussion...

 

[bpower]

He did say after the fact that's he more comfortable on the left, but I don't recall anything ever saying he requested it. Unless you can provide some kind of source for that, then it never happened.

Muzzin said it during the broadcast the game they were seperated. Reporter asked why the change, Muzzin said that Reilly wasn't feeling comfortable on the right side and asked to move back. Don't care if you believe me, just telling you what I heard, when I heard it and who said it.

 

[DarkKnight]

Thought I was in the wrong thread.

Said Gardiner didn't skate yesterday, I'm assuming a precaution to see how he reacted to what looked like pretty aggressive on ice work Friday. Should be skating today if he really is getting better.

 

[justafan22]

Thought I was in the wrong thread.

Said Gardiner didn't skate yesterday, I'm assuming a precaution to see how he reacted to what looked like pretty aggressive on ice work Friday. Should be skating today if he really is getting better.

Earliest you'd see him would be the Carolina game IMO, if Dermott's comments are true.

 

[The CyNick]

I think Holl and Marincin were gambles, I admit, but considering their AHL performance the past year there was at least some backing to it. Also, besides this stretch, neither have played very many games and as we've seen with Nylander, it takes a while to get up to game speed (I feel like Holl has been a little bit better recently so baby steps).

In terms of finding someone, who would you have wanted Kyle Dubas to acquire? Mcquaid? I think I'll pass. And you can't just keep solid veterans in the system, because if they're solid then they'll get claimed on waivers at the beginning of the season.

I think in general, if any team loses FOUR NHL-caliber defencemen at once, they're gonna have a hard time. For reference, Boston has 2 d-men out.

I'm not the GM with the hype train behind him. He is supposed to be this genius. He said our D depth is strong enough and it turns out he was wrong.

Nobody we have in the AHL is an NHL quality D man. They may one day turn into an NHL quality D man, but they are not today. That's the problem. The young GM didn't address the depth issues.

But he was sure to grab another small forward which we totally were lacking.

As for Boston, they have had more man games lost, and they have lost their top D men. We lost a #3 and #5 and were in the toilet because of it. On the other hand Boston continues to truck along and is torching us this year. Sad but true.

 

[The CyNick]

But we did for almost as long too.

I think it was 14 games vs 8 games. If I recall Tampa only lost 2 games in that stretch and we lost half. Given those numbers if Andy was out the same as Vas we would be barely hanging on to a playoff spot. The young GM screwed up big time.

 

[The CyNick]

YOung GM or not (young being irrelevant anyways) every GM in the league does the same thing he did. Sparks won the Calder cup and was on paper ready for a promotion. He went through the process. How do you expect players to develop without playing? Not everyone is a Matthews coming into the league. And not everyone’s ceiling is Andersen

I have yet to talk to one scout out person in hockey who thought Sparks had the skills to be a quality NHL goalie.

Not surprisingly the young GM choose youth over talent and results at the NHL level. A similar mistake made by our first time President in making a GM choice. Interesting how that works out.

 

[Marshy]

Hurry back Jake.

I'm sorry for calling you a mistake-prone turnover machine and wanting you Larry Murphy-ed out of town!

 

[mallory67]

God speed Gardiner. We are gonna need you in Game 7 vs. Boston!

 

[Jozay]

Thought I was in the wrong thread.

Said Gardiner didn't skate yesterday, I'm assuming a precaution to see how he reacted to what looked like pretty aggressive on ice work Friday. Should be skating today if he really is getting better.

Yup, he skated today

 

[DarkKnight]

Yup, he skated today

Great!

 

[Slyfox]

We desparately need him back

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

I think it was 14 games vs 8 games. If I recall Tampa only lost 2 games in that stretch and we lost half. Given those numbers if Andy was out the same as Vas we would be barely hanging on to a playoff spot. The young GM screwed up big time.

Oh I agree overall and in fact I think I may have been the very first person on this forum t say it was a mistake when it was first posted. I still shake my head at the decision. I understand what the reasons were, I just don't agree.

 

[grapes55]

I'm not the GM with the hype train behind him. He is supposed to be this genius. He said our D depth is strong enough and it turns out he was wrong.

Nobody we have in the AHL is an NHL quality D man. They may one day turn into an NHL quality D man, but they are not today. That's the problem. The young GM didn't address the depth issues.

But he was sure to grab another small forward which we totally were lacking.

As for Boston, they have had more man games lost, and they have lost their top D men. We lost a #3 and #5 and were in the toilet because of it. On the other hand Boston continues to truck along and is torching us this year. Sad but true.

Really? No one on the Marlies is NHL quality? Is it possible that we have players in the AHL now because they're waiver eligible and should be playing instead of sitting in the pressbox every night?

Like I said before, there wasn't anyone available as a rental that would be a significant upgrade over what we already have.

I also think it's disingenuous to blame only our defense when basically the whole team has been in some form of a slump as well.

 

[The CyNick]

Really? No one on the Marlies is NHL quality? Is it possible that we have players in the AHL now because they're waiver eligible and should be playing instead of sitting in the pressbox every night?

Like I said before, there wasn't anyone available as a rental that would be a significant upgrade over what we already have.

I also think it's disingenuous to blame only our defense when basically the whole team has been in some form of a slump as well.

I blame him for the goaltending as well if that helps.

If guys are NHL quality right now then they should be in the NHL.

 

[barilko05]

I blame him for the goaltending as well if that helps.

If guys are NHL quality right now then they should be in the NHL.

Right! So that means that you would rather have had Borgman and Rosen...two D who are GOOD but not quite good enough to crack our top 6...yet...up all season sitting in the pressbox doing nothing instead of in A improving their game. Wow! How did I not put this together before? It's GENIUS!!!!!

BTW There's a GM job opening in Edmonton. With that kind of thinking, you'd be a perfect candidate. You should apply...

 

[TheGroceryStick]

Have to think Dermott is the first into "normal" practice. And Babs likely wants 2 or so before he feels game ready.

Gardiner soon after... maybe week for TD and week and half for Jake

 

[HamiltonNHL]

We desparately need him back

Yes we do.

 

[thewave]

this is what is absolutely STUPID about the majority of stat community. There are smart ones in that community that apply context when looking at number but majority of them are a JOKE

here are a few examples:

even strength plus minus (all situations)

Player	Position	GP	TOI	GF	GA	plus/minus
Morgan Rielly	D	74	1422	108	78	30
Ron Hainsey	D	74	1276	83	57	26
Jake Gardiner	D	60	1151	66	45	21
Nikita Zaitsev	D	74	1292	57	59	-2
Travis Dermott	D	60	964	43	44	-1
Igor Ozhiganov	D	50	706	27	26	1
Jake Muzzin	D	25	445	25	18	7
Martin Marincin	D	19	255	11	13	-2
Justin Holl	D	8	102	3	11	-8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

even strength plus/minus (when leading)

Player	Position	GP	TOI	GF	GA	plus/minus
Morgan Rielly	D	74	473	36	24	12
Ron Hainsey	D	74	474	39	25	14
Nikita Zaitsev	D	74	497	34	27	7
Jake Gardiner	D	60	426	25	16	9
Travis Dermott	D	60	348	15	14	1
Igor Ozhiganov	D	50	287	11	11	0
Jake Muzzin	D	25	120	9	5	4
Martin Marincin	D	19	79	5	5	0
Justin Holl	D	8	5	0	1	-1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

even strength plus/minus (when trailing)

Player	Position	GP	TOI	GF	GA	plus/minus
Morgan Rielly	D	74	463	35	31	4
Jake Gardiner	D	60	351	20	19	1
Ron Hainsey	D	74	373	21	16	5
Nikita Zaitsev	D	74	371	11	13	-2
Travis Dermott	D	60	307	15	17	-2
Igor Ozhiganov	D	50	217	7	9	-2
Jake Muzzin	D	25	168	11	6	5
Martin Marincin	D	19	97	3	7	-4
Justin Holl	D	8	53	3	8	-5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

even strength plus/minus (when tied)

Player	Position	GP	TOI	GF	GA	plus/minus
Morgan Rielly	D	74	487	37	23	14
Ron Hainsey	D	74	429	23	16	7
Nikita Zaitsev	D	74	425	12	19	-7
Jake Gardiner	D	60	374	21	10	11
Travis Dermott	D	60	309	13	13	0
Igor Ozhiganov	D	50	202	9	6	3
Jake Muzzin	D	25	157	5	7	-2
Martin Marincin	D	19	80	3	1	2
Justin Holl	D	8	44	0	2	-2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Summary:
In all situations Hainsey second on the team only to Rielly
When team is leading Hainsey is 1st on the team protecting the lead
When trailing Hainsey is 1st on the team (tied with muzzin)
when game is tied hainsey is 3rd on the team

what do these situations mean?

• when the team has the lead and when babcock leans on hainsey more to protect the lead he has done the job; i.e. leafs turtle to protect lead - plus/minus here for defenders is going to look bad. Hainsey gets the worst end of the stick
• when the team is trailing and babcock leans on other offensive d-men to get the goals and opposition is turtling to protect their lead; Hainsey again gets the short end of the stick as he is not necessarily relied upon to get the goals as opposition may surrender a goal or two

why is this statement true?
the entire league's CF% just jumps when they are trailing; not because they become godly but because other teams turtle
http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?repor...gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=shotAttemptsPctgBehind

• i could go on aobut tied situations as well; but i am lazy i think above information should be good enough to provide you examples of why CONTEXT is very important

Now, lets talk about something else that is also part of the game. Special teams.

PP and PK are part of the game; they don't exist outside of the game. Hainsey has done a pretty good job on the PK; i.e. he gets his job done on the PK while the people playing on PP have not get their jobs done.


Hainsey is fine because a few stat fanboys do not know how to apply context and analyze information correctly doesn't make hainsey obsolete.

P.S. Rielly is having a career year playing beside Hainsey because Rielly doesn't have to cover for his partner's mistakes; Rielly can do his thing because he knows he has a reliable partner

wtf does that mean?

• it means the same thing that
• markov meant to subban in montreal
• methot meant to karlsson in ottawa
• tj brodie means to giordano
• ryan has meant to burns this season

Hockey it isn't that difficult to understand when you apply context and do not apply statistics BLINDLY

Exactly. Set them straight. BTW both Jake's are good defenders. I know people here are down on Muzz.

 

[The CyNick]

Right! So that means that you would rather have had Borgman and Rosen...two D who are GOOD but not quite good enough to crack our top 6...yet...up all season sitting in the pressbox doing nothing instead of in A improving their game. Wow! How did I not put this together before? It's GENIUS!!!!!

BTW There's a GM job opening in Edmonton. With that kind of thinking, you'd be a perfect candidate. You should apply...

No I would want guys who are not NHL ready but may have potential to be playing every day in the minors (AHL, Europe, CHL, etc).

That aside, it's the job of a good GM to have players who can be effective in the NHL ready to play. Most observers said the Leafs weakness was depth on D. The young GM was asked about that and he said our depth was strong enough. Then when the depth got tested due to only two injuries, he was proven dead wrong.

Having guys in the A who one day MAY be effective NHL D men does not count towards your current NHL ready depth. This was another example of the young GM thinking just having a bunch of young guys constitutes depth. Just like he thought that if you rate goaltenders only by age, you will make the right call.

The young GM focused his energy at the deadline snagging a 4-5th line NHL winger rather than looking for NHL ready depth on D. This was a huge mistake. If it was his only mistake you could forgive it. But he's been wrong far more than right this year. How long can he keep using the I'm a rookie at my job and still learning excuse?

 

[The90]

I have yet to talk to one scout out person in hockey who thought Sparks had the skills to be a quality NHL goalie.

Not surprisingly the young GM choose youth over talent and results at the NHL level. A similar mistake made by our first time President in making a GM choice. Interesting how that works out.

You often talk to scouts huh. I believe you for sure. Every GM I talk to thinks your a terrible hockey mind <-I can make things up too

 

[grapes55]

I blame him for the goaltending as well if that helps.

If guys are NHL quality right now then they should be in the NHL.

And they would have been in the NHL now, but they were injured.