I'm not sure I agree that an average team should be expected to score more than our current 5 goals per game with our amount of chances. That's #1 in the NHL. We've had some pretty clinical finishing on several we did score. Some examples...
- Rakell's goal today - That's not an expected goal for me because of the acute angle and awkwardness of it all, shooting it in reverse while lunging for the puck
- Poehling's goal is with the goalie totally set at the top of his crease in good position. Wouldn't expect that to go in either. It only did because of a fly-by screen by a King, throwing Quick off
- Zucker and Malkin have had long range slapshot goals go in off posts. Who was expecting goals there, watching those games?
- Carter squeaked one in for his first of the year by sliding it along the ice across Eliott, with pinpoint precision off the far post. I thought Elliott had him.
- Rutta's goal was soft as butter
The list goes on.
But that stat for 23rd in goals above expected isn't for the team scoring 5 goals per game.
That stat was for the team before the LA game, and it was for a team scoring 3 5v5 goals per game. It's a 5v5 stat, all the PP and PK goals don't count.
The stat will probably change after last night. Natural Stat Trick's version of that stat changed dramatically for us after last night, I'm sure MoneyPuck will follow. Indeed, they have. The stats are updated and we're now 15th at 0.98 goals over at 5v5. If you want to count all situations, as you are doing, we're 2.28 ahead of the game, which is 6th best in the NHL. Moneypuck don't have a date filter for me to work out the change, but on NST we're at 3.44 goals ahead of expected at all situations now, and were at 0,09 ahead before last night so there was probably a big change. The stats agree with you that we scored a bunch of unlikely goals last night - but you're taking issue with stats from before last night. It's not a valid criticism of that number to mention goals from last night.
And when you ask the real question the MP stat you found says, should we have scored more than 3 5v5 goals a night in our first three games, then I think yeah, yeah we should. I've lost count of the Pens (Rust) all alone in front of the net without it going in. I thought the first two goalies we faced made a bunch of really smart saves. Those first two games were stupidly dominant and we only got what we deserved from them if that.