Proposal: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 4

[Micklebot]

Just because he has no leverage doesn't mean he has to take a shit offer. Pinto didn't create this cap problem and forcing him to take a ridiculous amount is not good for future negotiations.

If he takes 1M instead of 2M for one year and he gets hurt, that's a lot of money to have left on the table. Doesn't sound like much in terms of pro hockey players, but it's a considerable amount to not have if you're taking chances on your future

Well, his choices are take whatever the team is offering, or sit out and make no money. He's not important enough to the roster for him siting out for the team to worry it will impact their season, so sitting out doesn't put a lot of pressure on the sens.

The only reason the sens would offer him more is to not burn bridges for future deals, Idk that Pinto is important enough to the teams future for that to be a big concern, but they can do, as others have mentioned, what the Sharks did and have a back room deal in place for his next contract to make him whole.

Say his ideal contract is 4 years at 3.5 per, well if we give him 1x1 with a second pre arranged deal to be officially signed in January for 4.33 x 3 he ends up with the same 14 mil over 4 years. If he's really worried about getting hurt in the 3 months before becoming eligible to extend, then maybe we shouldn't be committing to him anyways...

 

[Xspyrit]

You can write an essay on it, but I'm not reading it.

Shane Pinto scored 20 goals last year as a rookie coming off an injury where he missed the entire last season. If somebody came in here from another board saying Pinto was not a good player, you'd write a wall of text disputing that.

You could start by saying that there were only 12 players under 23 that scored 20 goals last year, and guess who was one of them? But no, he should take a shit offer because he has a similar ppg to a couple of players that are genuinely NOT doing that well in the NHL.

Well, sorry for providing factual arguments.

Dellandrea, Harvey-Pinard, McLeod, Cates, etc are NOT doing that well in the NHL? Pinto had some very modest numbers in regards to his top-6 deployment and his line got destroyed defensively.

So what about the context? Linemates and PP time? Do you think he would have the same opportunity if Norris didn't get injured? It's not about being high or not on Pinto, I have always been. It's more about looking at cold straight facts and comparables. Pinto on a 1 year deal at 2.0 AAV would be overpayment based on all the context.

 

[bicboi64]

Well, his choices are take whatever the team is offering, or sit out and make no money. He's not important enough to the roster for him siting out for the team to worry it will impact their season, so sitting out doesn't put a lot of pressure on the sens.

As much as I think that Pinto doesn't have much leverage, I don't think the bolded is true.

Without Pinto, our 3C is Grieg who would be asked to step into an important role, Kastelic who is an average 4C, or Kelly who is a 13th forward.

One injury two Stu or Norris makes everything even worse. Injuries are inevitable, and in that event Pinto is vital imo

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

As much as I think that Pinto doesn't have much leverage, I don't think the bolded is true.

Without Pinto, our 3C is Grieg who would be asked to step into an important role, Kastelic who is an average 4C, or Kelly who is a 13th forward.

One injury two Stu or Norris makes everything even worse. Injuries are inevitable, and in that event Pinto is vital imo

He's important.

 

[Big Muddy]

Just because he has no leverage doesn't mean he has to take a shit offer. Pinto didn't create this cap problem and forcing him to take a ridiculous amount is not good for future negotiations.

If he takes 1M instead of 2M for one year and he gets hurt, that's a lot of money to have left on the table. Doesn't sound like much in terms of pro hockey players, but it's a considerable amount to not have if you're taking chances on your future

I haven't seen a list of salaries for 10.2.c type contracts. If you have one, maybe you could share it. Better to have the relevant data before someone decides how good or bad the contract is.

This "shit contract" (using your terminology) would be for one year. Then he could receive a larger/longer contract on the next contract. It would be more a case of deferring compensation for a short period of time.

Re: your first sentence

What do you think Pinto would do if he was offered a lower, one year 10.2.c. contract? I'm curious as to what you think his options would be (this goes to back to understanding what a 10.2.c. contract is). Would he refuse to play?

 

[Beech]

Well, his choices are take whatever the team is offering, or sit out and make no money. He's not important enough to the roster for him siting out for the team to worry it will impact their season, so sitting out doesn't put a lot of pressure on the sens.

The only reason the sens would offer him more is to not burn bridges for future deals, Idk that Pinto is important enough to the teams future for that to be a big concern, but they can do, as others have mentioned, what the Sharks did and have a back room deal in place for his next contract to make him whole.

Say his ideal contract is 4 years at 3.5 per, well if we give him 1x1 with a second pre arranged deal to be officially signed in January for 4.33 x 3 he ends up with the same 14 mil over 4 years. If he's really worried about getting hurt in the 3 months before becoming eligible to extend, then maybe we shouldn't be committing to him anyways...

Sanderson's deal will kick in in 2024/2025. It will be X years at 8-10 M.
Creig will need a deal to start in 2025/2026
Klevin will need a deal to start in 2025/2026

in 2024/2025 they will have 7 forwards signed. So they will need 5 more..
in 2024/2025 they will have 5 d Men signed, they will need 2 more

they will have 21 M in cap.. ~9 goes to Jake the Snake.. leaving ~12 for 7 players.. 1.9 each.. Jack takes 8 M, 7 M, 6 M..still squeezes the others.

In 2025/2026 they will have ~ 11-12 players signed. Leaving them needing ~ 10 signed. And about 25 M in cap space... or ~2.5 M each

Where does the 4.33 for Shane come from?

for the next 4-5 years, the Sens will be in a permanent position of having ~ $2-2.5 M per unsigned player. (and I mean a 5,6,7 D a 3rd or 4th line forward, backup goalie).

Making an assumption on Jake S. here is he picture as of today (I am adding Jake to the high end earners)
5 players will be at ~ 8.1 M so 40.5 M if not higher.
6 players will be between 4 and 7 M, so ~ 28 M if not higher

69 M will be locked in place from 2024/2025 to about 2026/2027. Leaving ~ 15-20 M to be spent on the remaining 11 players... 1-2 M a player.

And this assumes that Klevin does not find a gear. That Craig doe not find a gear, that Jarv. does not find a gear. That any 2021 onwards draftee does not find a gear.

Pinto needs to bring his agent in and say to the Sens; let's go through Qualifying, then Arb. and then me out the door. There is not 4.33 M room for him here.

Getting rid of Joseph is a band aide..3 M will mean be peanuts once split among 10 players over the next 3 years.

 

[Micklebot]

As much as I think that Pinto doesn't have much leverage, I don't think the bolded is true.

Without Pinto, our 3C is Grieg who would be asked to step into an important role, Kastelic who is an average 4C, or Kelly who is a 13th forward.

One injury two Stu or Norris makes everything even worse. Injuries are inevitable, and in that event Pinto is vital imo

How much better than Greig really was Pinto last year? In the end this is what it boils down to this:

Kubalik-Pinto-Greig
Kelly-Kastelic-MacEwen

Or

Kubalik-Greig-Joseph
Kelly-Kastelic-MacEwen

Either group is a significant upgrade imo over last year's 3rd line of Motte/Gauthier-Brassard-Brown/Joseph.

Would I prefer to have Pinto in the line, absolutely. Is it the difference between success and failure? I think that's highly unlikely. Now to be fair, I'm higher on Joseph than a lot of people around here, he's overpaid, but I expect him to bounce back and be a productive player, I also think we'll miss his PK abilities. If you're among those that think Joseph is a 4th liner at best, then Pinto's importance increases.

 

[Micklebot]

Sanderson's deal will kick in in 2024/2025. It will be X years at 8-10 M.
Creig will need a deal to start in 2025/2026
Klevin will need a deal to start in 2025/2026

in 2024/2025 they will have 7 forwards signed. So they will need 5 more..
in 2024/2025 they will have 5 d Men signed, they will need 2 more

they will have 21 M in cap.. ~9 goes to Jake the Snake.. leaving ~12 for 7 players.. 1.9 each.. Jack takes 8 M, 7 M, 6 M..still squeezes the others.

In 2025/2026 they will have ~ 11-12 players signed. Leaving them needing ~ 10 signed. And about 25 M in cap space... or ~2.5 M each

Where does the 4.33 for Shane come from?

for the next 4-5 years, the Sens will be in a permanent position of having ~ $2-2.5 M per unsigned player. (and I mean a 5,6,7 D a 3rd or 4th line forward, backup goalie).

Making an assumption on Jake S. here is he picture as of today (I am adding Jake to the high end earners)
5 players will be at ~ 8.1 M so 40.5 M if not higher.
6 players will be between 4 and 7 M, so ~ 28 M if not higher

69 M will be locked in place from 2024/2025 to about 2026/2027. Leaving ~ 15-20 M to be spent on the remaining 11 players... 1-2 M a player.

And this assumes that Klevin does not find a gear. That Craig doe not find a gear, that Jarv. does not find a gear. That any 2021 onwards draftee does not find a gear.

Pinto needs to bring his agent in and say to the Sens; let's go through Qualifying, then Arb. and then me out the door. There is not 4.33 M room for him here.

Getting rid of Joseph is a band aide..3 M will mean be peanuts once split among 10 players over the next 3 years.

You can run the numbers, it works next year even with Joseph, and replacing Tarasenko and Kubalik with 3 mil guys filling the rest out with ELC types.

Chychrun is the contract that makes things potentially tight, but we'll have flexibility in that Giroux will be off the books, either sign him to a retirement deal that's lower, or look elsewhere, and again, that's with Joseph

 

[bicboi64]

Would I prefer to have Pinto in the line, absolutely. Is it the difference between success and failure? I think that's highly unlikely. Now to be fair, I'm higher on Joseph than a lot of people around here, he's overpaid, but I expect him to bounce back and be a productive player, I also think we'll miss his PK abilities. If you're among those that think Joseph is a 4th liner at best, then Pinto's importance increases.

I'm nervous about Norris' shoulder and expect him to get injured again. Not for the whole season but for 15-20 games. As much as Pinto struggled as a 2C last season, I have a bit more faith in him than Grieg to step up as 2C. I don't think Joseph is a 4th liner at best, he's an average 3rd liner who had a down year. His PK ability is important, but good PK can be taught imo. I definitely think Joseph is more expendable than Pinto, but my concern is the lack of centre depth has messed with us in the past. Now that we finally have good centre depth, I don't want it gone.

 

[Beech]

You can run the numbers, it works next year even with Joseph, and replacing Tarasenko and Kubalik with 3 mil guys filling the rest out with ELC types.

Chychrun is the contract that makes things potentially tight, but we'll have flexibility in that Giroux will be off the books, either sign him to a retirement deal that's lower, or look elsewhere, and again, that's with Joseph

how do you replace any top 6 forward with a sub 4 M player?

Brady, Tim, Josh, Thomas and Jake...probably locked for 3-4 years
Drake, Artem, Joonas..probably locked in for 3-4 years.

On the books is ~ 54 M..locked.
3 D, 4 F, 1 G...

You still need 1 D, 2 F just to fill out your top 11.. 3 guys at 4-5 M.. 12-15 M..locked

66-69 M locked for the next 3-4 years.

leaving 20 M.. for 11 others..

I have a hard time believing that out there is a top 4 D, and a 2 top 6 forwards at 3 M each..I am not sure where you find them?

Either a big contract has to be moved so that is may be split into 2 or 3 or no one, not yet signed and not heading towards top 11 status, gets a dime.

 

[Relapsing]

how do you replace any top 6 forward with a sub 4 M player?

Brady, Tim, Josh, Thomas and Jake...probably locked for 3-4 years
Drake, Artem, Joonas..probably locked in for 3-4 years.

On the books is ~ 54 M..locked.
3 D, 4 F, 1 G...

You still need 1 D, 2 F just to fill out your top 11.. 3 guys at 4-5 M.. 12-15 M..locked

66-69 M locked for the next 3-4 years.

leaving 20 M.. for 11 others..

I have a hard time believing that out there is a top 4 D, and a 2 top 6 forwards at 3 M each..I am not sure where you find them?

Either a big contract has to be moved so that is may be split into 2 or 3 or no one, not yet signed and not heading towards top 11 status, gets a dime.

ELC and cheap RFA contracts. You fulfill these spots through your pipeline, and trade those players for other cheap ELC and RFAs when they're due for raises. We want guys to price themselves out here. It means we'll get a quality return when we trade them.

Now, I'm not saying we have the personnel to do that at the moment, just that this is the structure we should be working with. Everyone outside of the core is in a revolving door.

Pinto is a good example of a guy that we'll want to exhaust his RFA years, then out the door he goes for ELC players or draft picks. Rinse and repeat until the core ages out.

 

[SlapJack]

I haven't seen a list of salaries for 10.2.c type contracts. If you have one, maybe you could share it. Better to have the relevant data before someone decides how good or bad the contract is.

This "shit contract" (using your terminology) would be for one year. Then he could receive a larger/longer contract on the next contract. It would be more a case of deferring compensation for a short period of time.

Re: your first sentence

What do you think Pinto would do if he was offered a lower, one year 10.2.c. contract? I'm curious as to what you think his options would be (this goes to back to understanding what a 10.2.c. contract is). Would he refuse to play?

I believe his agent would recommend that he not sign for $1M. His leverage is making a team with questionable bottom 6 depth even more questionable, and it looks bad on the team when they put themselves into a position where there's no cap space.

My gut feeling is that there is a plan in place to sign Pinto to something reasonable and free cap space somehow, there's just one more domino needing to fall.

 

[SlapJack]

Well, sorry for providing factual arguments.

Dellandrea, Harvey-Pinard, McLeod, Cates, etc are NOT doing that well in the NHL? Pinto had some very modest numbers in regards to his top-6 deployment and his line got destroyed defensively.

So what about the context? Linemates and PP time? Do you think he would have the same opportunity if Norris didn't get injured? It's not about being high or not on Pinto, I have always been. It's more about looking at cold straight facts and comparables. Pinto on a 1 year deal at 2.0 AAV would be overpayment based on all the context.

No the guys that are making $1M are the ones not doing exceptionally well and absolutely not comparable to Pinto. You want to give him Wahlstrom money and guys like that are one step removed from being on waivers

 

[Micklebot]

how do you replace any top 6 forward with a sub 4 M player?

Brady, Tim, Josh, Thomas and Jake...probably locked for 3-4 years
Drake, Artem, Joonas..probably locked in for 3-4 years.

On the books is ~ 54 M..locked.
3 D, 4 F, 1 G...

You still need 1 D, 2 F just to fill out your top 11.. 3 guys at 4-5 M.. 12-15 M..locked

66-69 M locked for the next 3-4 years.

leaving 20 M.. for 11 others..

I have a hard time believing that out there is a top 4 D, and a 2 top 6 forwards at 3 M each..I am not sure where you find them?

Either a big contract has to be moved so that is may be split into 2 or 3 or no one, not yet signed and not heading towards top 11 status, gets a dime.

Well Greig and Pinto will be expected to contribute more, potentially taking one or both top 6 spots, that's how you do it, maybe instead of two 3 mil guys you get a 5 and a 1 thanks to another ELC guy like Ostapchuk or Boucher being ready for 3rd line duties then you're replacing a 5 mil guy with a 5 mil guy. We may end up trading guys along the way too, no team keeps everyone, we may see Chabot as expendable down the road, or maybe Pinto or Greig offer better value as 2nd line center so we move Norris,

Not sure who you're referring to as a top 4 d, Chabot, Zub, Chychrun and Sanderson cover thos spots for now, Kleven will take a bottom pair spot, along with someone like JBD. If you mean when it's time to extend Chychrun, I think he fits at 7, I'd have to run the numbers again, but this was all with us keeping Joseph so it all gets about 2 mil easier by moving Joseph.

 

[Ouroboros]

I haven't seen a list of salaries for 10.2.c type contracts. If you have one, maybe you could share it. Better to have the relevant data before someone decides how good or bad the contract is.

This "shit contract" (using your terminology) would be for one year. Then he could receive a larger/longer contract on the next contract. It would be more a case of deferring compensation for a short period of time.

Re: your first sentence

What do you think Pinto would do if he was offered a lower, one year 10.2.c. contract? I'm curious as to what you think his options would be (this goes to back to understanding what a 10.2.c. contract is). Would he refuse to play?

10.2c contracts are pretty rare, so the baseline for comparison is low. Here's a few I found...

Andrew Copp signed a 2 year/2M [1M AAV] deal after the 2016-17 season. He was coming off a year where he scored 17 points in 64 games and he posted 13 points in 77 games the previous season.

Troy Terry signed a 3 year/4.35M [1.45M AAV] deal after the 19-20 season. He had 28 points in 79 games over the previous two seasons combined.

Casey Mittelstadt accepted his qualifying offer of 874,125 after the 19-20 season. He had 39 points in 114 NHL games, but he did struggle in his platform season.

Jaden Schwartz signed a 2 year, 4.7M [2.35M AAV] after the 13-14 season, but he was coming off a 56 point campaign.

Brock Boeser signed a huge deal as a 10.2c, but that doesn't seem all that relevant given that he was nearly a point-per-game player at the time. Many of the other players in this situation had very little NHL experience and ended up signing their qualifying offer [Brandon Tanev, Eric Robinson, Hudson Fasching, Nico Sturm, Ryan Poehling]. One interesting wrinkle is that Colin White's insane extension was signed when he was a 10.2c player.

I don't think a contract of 1 year/1M is totally unreasonable. It's perhaps a little bit low, but the cap constraints are a real barrier here. That's not Pinto's fault, but he's going to pay the price regardless. He has little recourse - no arbitration rights and not eligible for offer sheets. Even if he requested a trade, nearly 75% of the teams in the league are in a position where they have essentially no cap space and couldn't pay him more than Ottawa.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I suspect any Pinto deal will come with the understanding that we are up against the cap for one season and this is the money we have available. A one year show us you’re the real deal, deal, with the possibility of a term extension on the horizon when cash clears next summer. They could presumably start talking extension as soon as the new year no?

Anyways, I don’t think there will be any strong arming of Pinto, more like he may have to take a bit of a hit this season and be made while on his next deal.

It didn’t work with Alfie’s deal apparently, but that owner is gone, and it would be nice to have trust be a thing within the org.

 

[benjiv1]

Have Sens announced they are retiring Anderson’s number on Oct 24th yet?

 

[Golden_Jet]

Have Sens announced they are retiring Anderson’s number on Oct 24th yet?

They have now.

 

[Micklebot]

10.2c contracts are pretty rare, so the baseline for comparison is low. Here's a few I found...

Andrew Copp signed a 2 year/2M [1M AAV] deal after the 2016-17 season. He was coming off a year where he scored 17 points in 64 games and he posted 13 points in 77 games the previous season.

Troy Terry signed a 3 year/4.35M [1.45M AAV] deal after the 19-20 season. He had 28 points in 79 games over the previous two seasons combined.

Casey Mittelstadt accepted his qualifying offer of 874,125 after the 19-20 season. He had 39 points in 114 NHL games, but he did struggle in his platform season.

Jaden Schwartz signed a 2 year, 4.7M [2.35M AAV] after the 13-14 season, but he was coming off a 56 point campaign.

Brock Boeser signed a huge deal as a 10.2c, but that doesn't seem all that relevant given that he was nearly a point-per-game player at the time. Many of the other players in this situation had very little NHL experience and ended up signing their qualifying offer [Brandon Tanev, Eric Robinson, Hudson Fasching, Nico Sturm, Ryan Poehling]. One interesting wrinkle is that Colin White's insane extension was signed when he was a 10.2c player.

I don't think a contract of 1 year/1M is totally unreasonable. It's perhaps a little bit low, but the cap constraints are a real barrier here. That's not Pinto's fault, but he's going to pay the price regardless. He has little recourse - no arbitration rights and not eligible for offer sheets. Even if he requested a trade, nearly 75% of the teams in the league are in a position where they have essentially no cap space and couldn't pay him more than Ottawa.

It's tough doing a direct comparison because most of the time teams aren't trying to squeeze someone in Pinto's situation they are trying to give him a bit of term, add to that the 10.2c and there really aren't many of any comparable situations

 

[Cosmix]

I suspect any Pinto deal will come with the understanding that we are up against the cap for one season and this is the money we have available. A one year show us you’re the real deal, deal, with the possibility of a term extension on the horizon when cash clears next summer. They could presumably start talking extension as soon as the new year no?

Anyways, I don’t think there will be any strong arming of Pinto, more like he may have to take a bit of a hit this season and be made while on his next deal.

It didn’t work with Alfie’s deal apparently, but that owner is gone, and it would be nice to have trust be a thing within the org.

Given the amount of cap space available at this time, I doubt that Pinto can be signed without a trade taking place, assuming all players are healthy.

 

[Big Muddy]

10.2c contracts are pretty rare, so the baseline for comparison is low. Here's a few I found...

Andrew Copp signed a 2 year/2M [1M AAV] deal after the 2016-17 season. He was coming off a year where he scored 17 points in 64 games and he posted 13 points in 77 games the previous season.

Troy Terry signed a 3 year/4.35M [1.45M AAV] deal after the 19-20 season. He had 28 points in 79 games over the previous two seasons combined.

Casey Mittelstadt accepted his qualifying offer of 874,125 after the 19-20 season. He had 39 points in 114 NHL games, but he did struggle in his platform season.

Jaden Schwartz signed a 2 year, 4.7M [2.35M AAV] after the 13-14 season, but he was coming off a 56 point campaign.

Brock Boeser signed a huge deal as a 10.2c, but that doesn't seem all that relevant given that he was nearly a point-per-game player at the time. Many of the other players in this situation had very little NHL experience and ended up signing their qualifying offer [Brandon Tanev, Eric Robinson, Hudson Fasching, Nico Sturm, Ryan Poehling]. One interesting wrinkle is that Colin White's insane extension was signed when he was a 10.2c player.

I don't think a contract of 1 year/1M is totally unreasonable. It's perhaps a little bit low, but the cap constraints are a real barrier here. That's not Pinto's fault, but he's going to pay the price regardless. He has little recourse - no arbitration rights and not eligible for offer sheets. Even if he requested a trade, nearly 75% of the teams in the league are in a position where they have essentially no cap space and couldn't pay him more than Ottawa.

I appreciate the research you did. Thanks.

 

[benjiv1]

They have now.

Haha, legitimately I forgot that I knew that and hadn’t said anything.

645 start against Buffalo. I don’t know for sure the date, but I know it’s happening and that would make sense. (Unless new Hockey Ops or whatever decides against it).

 

[Big Muddy]

I believe his agent would recommend that he not sign for $1M. His leverage is making a team with questionable bottom 6 depth even more questionable, and it looks bad on the team when they put themselves into a position where there's no cap space.

My gut feeling is that there is a plan in place to sign Pinto to something reasonable and free cap space somehow, there's just one more domino needing to fall.

If his agent recommends not signing, its possible that Pinto would be sitting out the year.

I do agree that the Senators (Dorion) have put themselves into a bind here.

 

[BigRig4]

If Pinto signs at 2 all it costs is Joseph and JBD sent down right?

 

[Ice-Tray]

Given the amount of cap space available at this time, I doubt that Pinto can be signed without a trade taking place, assuming all players are healthy.

For sure they will need to move someone or have a plan, I’m just positing that I don’t think it will be a take it or leave it kind of thing, and that everyone knows there will be more money to spread around starting next summer