Speculation: Flyers interested in Ryan O'Reilly

[Beerz]

I couldn't care less about an award voted on by players.

I'm sure the Sabres would jump at the opportunity to add Patrick at the cost of O'Reilly. By the way, Patrick managed to only played 2 fewer NHL games than O'Reilly last season.

No. I want ROR over Patrick

 

[Bazeek]

more than half those teams are in a rebuild and known for poor C depth. all non playoff teams too except for Minny, and it's arguable Staal is as good. certainly better by production.

I'd play Staal over O'Reilly last year and probably next year. Beyond that things get hazier.

 

[bauer]

Okay then what do you think a fair return for ROR and Risto would be? Because a few non blue-chip 20-23 year olds who still need more time in the AHL to develop aren't going to cut it.

no interest in Risto. adding him to ROR in a package would involved way too many pieces than i'd be comfortable with.

 

[Jame]

ok, but he's always been around 55-60 points. he's never shown he's been much more. and it's not like he's never had any good linemates.

The last time he was on a playoff team, he came in 5th in Selke voting

PS staring at point totals is weak.

i meant in terms of you can't rely on him to carry your team.

it was ridiculous... in any terms

i agree it wouldn't be Simmonds or medicore assets. Sanheim is a great piece, but it would probably take more. we agree on that.

Sanheim is not a great piece. Sanheim is a nice piece.

Note: Every fan base thinks their nice pieces are great.

 

[Prongo]

No. I want ROR over Patrick

If buffalo was offered Patrick for ROR are you saying they would turn it down?

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

ok, but he's always been around 55-60 points. he's never shown he's been much more. and it's not like he's never had any good linemates.



i meant in terms of you can't rely on him to carry your team.



i agree it wouldn't be Simmonds or medicore assets. Sanheim is a great piece, but it would probably take more. we agree on that.

You can rely on him to match up against the opponents best players starting 57% of his draws in the defensive zone. The Sabres aren't bad because RoR can't lead them. They're bad because half their lineup produces less 5v5 than the opposition does 4v5.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

If buffalo was offered Patrick for ROR are you saying they would turn it down?

I think that'd be easy for Buffalo to say yes to. But it'd be bad for them short term.

 

[Beerz]

If buffalo was offered Patrick for ROR are you saying they would turn it down?

I would hope so.

What ROR does for this team is far more important than adding more of something we have in spades what Patrick would bring.

 

[Fjordy]

Not sure what the Flyers are willing to pay a serious price for the ROR, unlike Bergevin.

 

[Jame]

You are wildly overstating the importance of Zone Starts. They affect play for the ~15-20 seconds after a Faceoff.

It's also quite convenient that you picked 1000 Minutes and only last year. I think you know why.

It's not about the importance, it's about the impact.

And yes... i picked 1000 minutes to weed out the jay beagle's who aren't relevant to a debate about top line players.

 

[bauer]

The last time he was on a playoff team, he came in 5th in Selke voting

PS staring at point totals is weak.

point totals matter when you're taking about if a player is a 1C or a 2C. that's the biggest part of what makes 1C's what they are. offensive production. if you don't produce enough, you're not a true 1C.

 

[ottomaddox]

Lebrun posted an article today stating they're one of five teams interested. Ron Hextall always has had a man crush on Oreilly since the World Cup days. What would it cost ? Flyers have 2 first rounders in the draft and possibly more depending on a Simmonds trade.

I think PHI is a good fit and that both teams make good trade partners.

Let this happen.

 

[Jame]

If buffalo was offered Patrick for ROR are you saying they would turn it down?

Probably not... I mean Nolan Patrick did outperform ROR's rookie year by 4 points...

 

[Yatzhee]

It doesn't do us Sabres fans any favors when we are constantly arguing against ROR being severly underrated around the trade board... but then we go and try to take an ignorant dump on Couturier.... just goes to show every fan base does it.

What you would so carelessly call ignorant is actually well founded opinion. Just because the opinion doesn't fit your narrative of the analysis doesn't make it ignorance. It makes it differing points of view.

 

[Jame]

point totals matter when you're taking about if a player is a 1C or a 2C. that's the biggest part of what makes 1C's what they are. offensive production. if you don't produce enough, you're not a true 1C.

Not to the degree you are implying here.

It's a big mistake... one that far too many GMs make. This is how the Vegas Knights go to a cup final.

 

[Jame]

What you would so carelessly call ignorant is actually well founded opinion. Just because the opinion doesn't fit your narrative of the analysis doesn't make it ignorance. It makes it differing points of view.

you think so

 

[bauer]

Not to the degree you are implying here.

It's a big mistake... one that far too many GMs make. This is how the Vegas Knights go to a cup final.

They had a 1C that scored 40 goals and almost had 80 points.

 

[Jame]

They had a 1C that scored 40 goals and almost had 80 points.

Because an idiot GM looked at William Karlsson's points and labeled him a 3C/Expendable

 

[Panthaz89]

point totals matter when you're taking about if a player is a 1C or a 2C. that's the biggest part of what makes 1C's what they are. offensive production. if you don't produce enough, you're not a true 1C.

so let me give you an example of an unknown center that hit 62, 55, 68, 53, 63(albeit this was in 64 games) in his last 5 seasons but is regarded as an obvious 1C both of his wingers put up 80-85 points respectively in the last season. Ryan O'Reily has put up similar numbers when the variety of wingers he has had would be lucky to put up half of what his comparable's wingers other than Sam who didn't play with O'Reily that much.

 

[wankstifier]

You can rely on him to match up against the opponents best players starting 57% of his draws in the defensive zone. The Sabres aren't bad because RoR can't lead them. They're bad because half their lineup produces less 5v5 than the opposition does 4v5.

O'Reilly and his linemates get outscored in these 5v5 matchups. There are players with similar usage who don't get outscored.

 

[Jame]

so let me give you an example of an unknown center that hit 62, 55, 68, 53, 63(albeit this was in 64 games) in his last 5 seasons but is regarded as an obvious 1C both of his wingers put up 80-85 points respectively in the last season. Ryan O'Reily has put up similar numbers when the variety of wingers he has had would be lucky to put up half of what his comparable's wingers other than Sam who didn't play with O'Reily that much.

i'll make it easier:

Age / Cap / Term
ROR 27 / 7.5 / 5
Bergeron 31 / 7.25 / 3 yrs

Last 3 years:

Points / Pts per game
ROR : 176 / 0.79
Bergeon : 184 / 0.83

ES Points
ROR : 100 / 0.45
Bergeon : 112 / 0.50

Faceoffs Taken / League Rank / Faceoff % & League Rank (Centers Min 140 Games & 2000 faceoffs)
ROR : 5727 / #1 58.3% / #2
Bergeon : 5158 / #4 58.2% / #3

Takeaways / League Rank / TK/GV Ratio(Centers Min 140 Games & 2000 faceoffs)
ROR : 170 / #10 / (+76)
Bergeon : 187 / #4 / (+88)

Blocked Shots (Centers Min 140 Games & 2000 faceoffs)
ROR : 136 / #22
Bergeon : 145 / #18

TOI / League rank (Centers Min 140 Games)
ROR : 21:18 / #1
Bergeon : 19:34 / #17

SH TOI / League Rank (Centers Min 140 Games)
ROR : 1:58 / #22
Bergeon : 2:04 / #17

Now think about the difference in quality of linemates.....
Now think about the difference in zone starts....
Now think about the difference between being on a contenderv vs a bottom feeder...

People don't want to hear it... But ROR is a younger Patrice Bergeron.... and if anyone doesn't think Patrice Bergeron is a #1 center, they need to go pound sand.

 

[wankstifier]

Because an idiot GM looked at William Karlsson's points and labeled him a 3C/Expendable

Just one GM? I'm sure even Vegas didn't know what they were getting with Karlsson

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

O'Reilly and his linemates get outscored in these 5v5 matchups. There are players with similar usage who don't get outscored.

He did this year; it's usually been close. How many players are facing his QoC with that ration of DZs and coming out ahead?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

It's not about the importance, it's about the impact.

And yes... i picked 1000 minutes to weed out the jay beagle's who aren't relevant to a debate about top line players.

And what about previous seasons?

If the Shot impact of a Faceoff is essentially dissipated after the first 15-20 Second of a Shift, what you have is a stat that means quite a bit when taken in short measures but not nearly as much when you add it up over the course of a season, especially when your Minutes threshold is so high. The long haul is how I prefer to measure impact. If we're going to discuss Usage, I would point you toward QoC and QoT rather than things like Zone Starts. That discussion has nothing whatsoever to do with any particular player. Believe me, I have this argument constantly with my fellow Flyers fans when they try to say Robert Hagg is anything other than absolutely terrible.

To be clear, QoC and QoT are definite points in ROR's favor. His QoC is right in line with other top Centers who get difficult Minutes. His QoT is by far the biggest point in his favor last year. I would love to have him on my team. I would absolutely give up quality assets for him. I would not give up Sanheim, which I expect to be the requested centerpiece, when I have to pay as if I'm also using him on PP1 but won't. Botterill seems competent. I don't expect them to give him away for less than full value.

 

[wankstifier]

He did this year; it's usually been close. How many players are facing his QoC with that ration of DZs and coming out ahead?

Couturier has for the past few years. I'm guessing Bergeron has... etc.