Speculation: Flyers interested in Ryan O'Reilly

[Jim Bob]

Sure, but I think it's fairly obvious that Patrick and Provorov have more trade value individually than ROR

The tough part with gauging O'Reilly's trade value is that players like him rarely get traded outside of a contract issue like he had with Colorado.

Since he is locked up, that changes the dynamics of a trade.

Personally, I don't see the reason to move O'Reilly unless there is an offer on the table that Botterill absolutely can't turn down.

And if every notable young player and top prospect is off the table, why should the Sabres trade the guy that is #2 in PPG, #1 in TOI/G, and #1 in FoW% over the past three years ? And all of that is while getting a lot more DZ starts than OZ starts.

 

[Starat327]

I think they should hold onto him for at least 2
more years to take the tough minutes away from their young forwards. He’ll still have value in two years to a contender.

Probably right. But in 2 or 3 year, i think Buffalo is in playoff contention, so im not sure they would make that move.

 

[darcyRegier]

O'Reilly is a very nice player and isn't overrated on the ice... but has become overrated when it comes to some outlandish trade proposals. Provorov/Patrick/Konecny for ROR??

I could, however, see a deal like...

TO PHI
- O'Reilly
- Ristolainen

TO BUF
- Simmonds
- Lindblom
- Laughton
- Sanheim

Then the Flyers address the wing position at 14 and 19.

The Sabres have Mittelstadt who can step in and be the 2nd line center. They could use the boost on the wings in Simmonds and Lindblom. Sanheim might be more suited for Housley's style than Ristolainen, and the Flyers want a RH defenseman.

Disgustingly bad for Buffalo. Why would they trade two of their core players(both locked up long term) for a bunch of smaller pieces? Buffalo loses their #1C and #1D for an aging, soon to be ufa winger, and a bunch of magic beans? Try that again, but this time start with Patrick and add from there.

 

[Jim Bob]

Based on this thread, Buffalo is going to be really dissapointed by the return on ROR.

And HFB has a great track record of predicting a player's trade value.

I bet Oilers fans would have flamed Hall for Larsson.

 

[bauer]

Who are we talking about here? Because that's not Ryan O'Reilly.

everything that poster said was true. ROR is a 55-60 point 2C.

i wouldn't mind him in Philly depending on what the ask is. he'd be a nice fit in the middle six until Frost is ready to take over, then he can move to wing.

 

[bauer]

Disgustingly bad for Buffalo. Why would they trade two of their core players(both locked up long term) for a bunch of smaller pieces? Buffalo loses their #1C and #1D for an aging, soon to be ufa winger, and a bunch of magic beans? Try that again, but this time start with Patrick and add from there.

our apologies, that poster has a history of making atrocious trade offers. that being said, Eichel is your 1C, not ROR. and Dahlen will very soon be your 1D. and you're not getting anything close to Patrick, so lets quit that nonsense.

 

[Fjordy]

What absurd trade offers are offered here, wow.

 

[wankstifier]

The tough part with gauging O'Reilly's trade value is that players like him rarely get traded outside of a contract issue like he had with Colorado.

Since he is locked up, that changes the dynamics of a trade.

Personally, I don't see the reason to move O'Reilly unless there is an offer on the table that Botterill absolutely can't turn down.

And if every notable young player and top prospect is off the table, why should the Sabres trade the guy that is #2 in PPG, #1 in TOI/G, and #1 in FoW% over the past three years ? And all of that is while getting a lot more DZ starts than OZ starts.

I think Patrick has roughly even on ice value to O'Reilly right now and more upside, which might be available as soon as next season. Consider the salary commitment over the next 5 years and the gap becomes larger. In terms of trade value, Patrick is easily in a higher tier than O'Reilly. Same argument for Provorov, though he's currently more valuable on the ice, too.

As for the section in bold, consider taking out the FOW% and you'd find that you have an average top 6 forward. Faceoff ability isn't as special as you think it is.

 

[wankstifier]

our apologies, that poster has a history of making atrocious trade offers. that being said, Eichel is your 1C, not ROR. and Dahlen will very soon be your 1D. and you're not getting anything close to Patrick, so lets quit that nonsense.

I'll add to this... Eichel has below average faceoff ability, but there's no question that he's the best forward, center and player on the team, excluding Dahlin for now. Yet, in this silly trifecta of faceoff wins, points and TOI, Eichel ranks below O'Reilly... Food for thought

 

[Jim Bob]

I think Patrick has roughly even on ice value to O'Reilly right now and more upside, which might be available as soon as next season. Consider the salary commitment over the next 5 years and the gap becomes larger. In terms of trade value, Patrick is easily in a higher tier than O'Reilly. Same argument for Provorov, though he's currently more valuable on the ice, too.

As for the section in bold, consider taking out the FOW% and you'd find that you have an average top 6 forward. Faceoff ability isn't as special as you think it is.

Faceoff Ability is important when you don't have anyone else that can be trusted to take a big draw.

Evander Kane has taken a lot of draws for Eichel over the past few seasons, for example.

And even throwing faceoffs out of it, only 9 centers have averaged 0.75 pts/gp and 20+ minute/gp over the past three seasons.

O'Reilly falls between Trocheck and Kopitar in that list when sorting by Pts/GP.

 

[FlyersFanSinceBirth]

Faceoff Ability is important when you don't have anyone else that can be trusted to take a big draw.

Evander Kane has taken a lot of draws for Eichel over the past few seasons, for example.

And even throwing faceoffs out of it, only 9 centers have averaged 0.75 pts/gp and 20+ minute/gp over the past three seasons.

O'Reilly falls between Trocheck and Kopitar in that list when sorting by Pts/GP.

 

[Yatzhee]

Konecny is a wing and does not need to take faceoffs. Pretty sure Flyers is a top faceoff team in NHL. Couturier can shut down against top line with the best of them.

Edit: Top 3 in faceoffs.

Not pretty sure, but know for a fact ROR is the top face off man in the league. He just broke the single season face off wins record for the NHL. Couturier, while good, isn't on ROR's level of shutdown, sorry. And every analyst has opined about him being top 2 or 3.
ROR isn't going anywhere for spare parts. If a team is interested, the price will be very, very high. He's in his prime at 27, has 5 years left at 7.5 aav, but past July 1st, when the bonus is paid, is only 6 mil actual salary. He's averaged over 60 points a season on the worst offensive team in the league.

 

[Starat327]

Not pretty sure, but know for a fact ROR is the top face off man in the league. He just broke the single season face off wins record for the NHL. Couturier, while good, isn't on ROR's level of shutdown, sorry. And every analyst has opined about him being top 2 or 3.
ROR isn't going anywhere for spare parts. If a team is interested, the price will be very, very high. He's in his prime at 27, has 5 years left at 7.5 aav, but past July 1st, when the bonus is paid, is only 6 mil actual salary. He's averaged over 60 points a season on the worst offensive team in the league.

Im not trying to take away from ROR, ive admitted several times that hes a great player - but to the bolded - is this why Couturier is looking at a selke nomination and ROR isnt?

 

[seafoam]

1st, 2nd, 3rd, Nelson, Cizikas/Clutterbuck

 

[Jame]

everything that poster said was true. ROR is a 55-60 point 2C.

i wouldn't mind him in Philly depending on what the ask is. he'd be a nice fit in the middle six until Frost is ready to take over, then he can move to wing.

our apologies, that poster has a history of making atrocious trade offers. that being said, Eichel is your 1C, not ROR. and Dahlen will very soon be your 1D. and you're not getting anything close to Patrick, so lets quit that nonsense.

This is why labels like "1C" and 2C" are meaningless.

 

[Jame]

Not pretty sure, but know for a fact ROR is the top face off man in the league. He just broke the single season face off wins record for the NHL. Couturier, while good, isn't on ROR's level of shutdown, sorry. And every analyst has opined about him being top 2 or 3.
ROR isn't going anywhere for spare parts. If a team is interested, the price will be very, very high. He's in his prime at 27, has 5 years left at 7.5 aav, but past July 1st, when the bonus is paid, is only 6 mil actual salary. He's averaged over 60 points a season on the worst offensive team in the league.

Yes, Couturier is.

 

[Yatzhee]

Im not trying to take away from ROR, ive admitted several times that hes a great player - but to the bolded - is this why Couturier is looking at a selke nomination and ROR isnt?

Usage, it's all about usage. Couturier didn't play nearly the role ROR played for the Sabres, in all situations. ROR's statistics heavily suffered specifically because of the roster he played on. He was put in to the grinder like you would not believe. As for the Selke, meh, good for Couturier, but that does not take away from what just about every hockey analyst has stated about ROR.

Face it, ROR is more experienced, has more time, and has the numbers to back up what has been stated. He's better than Couturier, in every aspect. Is it a lot, is it a little? Couturier doesn't have the time in ROR does. But if a team is looking for a center, take it to the bank ROR is on the very short wish list of just about every GM.

 

[Jame]

Labeling ROR a "2C" as a way to devalue him... isn't going to fly

 

[Yatzhee]

Yes, Couturier is.

Sorry Jame, he's not. He may be someday, but not now.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

He would be so good on the Flyers! Can’t see it happening though

Unless Simmonds and a 1st is enough

 

[darcyRegier]

our apologies, that poster has a history of making atrocious trade offers. that being said, Eichel is your 1C, not ROR. and Dahlen will very soon be your 1D. and you're not getting anything close to Patrick, so lets quit that nonsense.

ROR has led forwards in ice time every year he's been here. Him and Eichel both are 1/2 centers on the team. That being said, why would Buffalo trade their 2nd best forward/player and best defenseman for a return of prospects. That would make them even worse. Sanheim, Lindbolm, and Laughton are all far from sure things, let alone top line players.

Buffalo isn't trading 2 of its core pieces for prospects. At least one core piece should be coming back. So I say again, start with Patrick and add. If not, then there's no reason to trade ROR and Risto in the same deal. Would you move both Ghost and Couturier in the same deal for anything but players who would be core pieces?

 

[haseoke39]

that being said, Eichel is your 1C, not ROR.

It might surprise you that not all sabres fans see it that way. Eichel is pointzzzzz but ROR plays more minutes and does everything else. If you reversed their usage, ROR might be ahead in points.

 

[Jame]

Usage, it's all about usage. Couturier didn't play nearly the role ROR played for the Sabres, in all situations. ROR's statistics heavily suffered specifically because of the roster he played on. He was put in to the grinder like you would not believe. As for the Selke, meh, good for Couturier, but that does not take away from what just about every hockey analyst has stated about ROR.

Face it, ROR is more experienced, has more time, and has the numbers to back up what has been stated. He's better than Couturier, in every aspect. Is it a lot, is it a little? Couturier doesn't have the time in ROR does. But if a team is looking for a center, take it to the bank ROR is on the very short wish list of just about every GM.

Couturier was used in a checking line/defensively leveraged role, prior to this year.

He's moved up to a 1st line/2 way role.... surrounded with elite offensive talent, and the offensive production followed.

Couturier/ROR are incredibly comparable players.

 

[Jame]

Sorry Jame, he's not. He may be someday, but not now.

Sorry, you're wrong.

Couturier is one of the best 2 way centers in the league, and with the appropriate role change, he's become one of the most offensively productive too

His development is a testament to developing players the right way.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

This thread has it all. We've got on-ice intangibles, clichés, Faceoffs, and Zone Starts. Are we missing anything else overvalued by traditional hockey culture? Is he good in the room?

I don't think anyone is saying the Sabres should sell low on him as they clearly have no motivation to do so. He's a very good player. He's just not at all what some people want him to be, nor should he be a fit for what the Flyers want. Sadly, I think Hextall disagrees with that last part.