Value of: Faulk to Tampa

[NotOpie]

There're a lot of reasons Tyler Johnson might waive to come to Carolina, not the least of which is being a bigger offensive fish in a much smaller offensive pond. He'd almost certainly play next to Aho and Teravainen. He'd likely know that he was here for the remaining term on his contract (and not have management come to him to ask to waive his NTC).

Having said that, he's currently on a team that will likely be one of the top 3 or 4 teams in the Eastern Conference and that's a tough thing to give up. Still, in the 19-20 season, there's no way to sugar coat it, Tampa's in cap hell....lots and lots of guys to sign and not a lot of cash to sign 'em. So that very good roster will look mighty different in as little as another year....no matter what magic Stevie Y has up his sleeve.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

That is the danger of setting one’s username before one finds out that their team has bought into Mrazek/Darling at goalie.

SvechniHughes2020 would be more realistic.

well hopefully one of those goalies bounces back and the canes make the playoffs. i like the canes and the state of nc in general. good luck to you guys. also dougie is a beast.

 

[Alan Wake]

Makes sense for everybody but TJ. Would you waive your NTC to go from a top Cup contender to Carolina (1 year short of missing the Playoffs for a decade straight)? I’m a Canes fans and I sure as hell wouldn’t.

He's not going to be getting much ice time for long in TB. TJ is beyond expendable here. While there's no question he loves playing for the team, who knows how long that would last if he's stuck on the third line. Carolina won't give him the chance to contend until they solve their goaltender woes, but he will get the ice time and be one of 'the' main guys. TB will never be able to offer that to him again.

Brayden Point has basically devoured his role on the team.

 

[bossram]

He's not going to be getting much ice time for long in TB. TJ is beyond expendable here. While there's no question he loves playing for the team, who knows how long that would last if he's stuck on the third line. Carolina won't give him the chance to contend until they solve their goaltender woes, but he will get the ice time and be one of 'the' main guys. TB will never be able to offer that to him again.

Brayden Point has basically devoured his role on the team.

Did they not run TJ on right wing next to Point for a while? He could still be a 2nd line/2nd PP player.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Did they not run TJ on right wing next to Point for a while? He could still be a 2nd line/2nd PP player.

He is, and probably will move to centre only due to injuries if one happens. He is still a pretty productive 2nd liner on the wing or centre.

 

[CupsOverCash]

There're a lot of reasons Tyler Johnson might waive to come to Carolina, not the least of which is being a bigger offensive fish in a much smaller offensive pond. He'd almost certainly play next to Aho and Teravainen. He'd likely know that he was here for the remaining term on his contract (and not have management come to him to ask to waive his NTC).

Having said that, he's currently on a team that will likely be one of the top 3 or 4 teams in the Eastern Conference and that's a tough thing to give up. Still, in the 19-20 season, there's no way to sugar coat it, Tampa's in cap hell....lots and lots of guys to sign and not a lot of cash to sign 'em. So that very good roster will look mighty different in as little as another year....no matter what magic Stevie Y has up his sleeve.

I wouldnt say cap hell but yea there will be some changes. We will probably need to move a guy or two. Callahan may be bought out or traded. Miller could be moved before the draft. Gourde might walk if he asks for too much. Wouldnt surprise me. We will probably be a much younger team come that year. One thing is for sure, Point will definitely be extended. Its just a question of whether he takes one for the team and takes a bridge(like Kucherov did) or lock him up long term. Our situation isnt as bad as you make it sound but yea SY will be busy.

 

[NotOpie]

I wouldnt say cap hell but yea there will be some changes. We will probably need to move a guy or two. Callahan may be bought out or traded. Miller could be moved before the draft. Gourde might walk if he asks for too much. Wouldnt surprise me. We will probably be a much younger team come that year. One thing is for sure, Point will definitely be extended. Its just a question of whether he takes one for the team and takes a bridge(like Kucherov did) or lock him up long term. Our situation isnt as bad as you make it sound but yea SY will be busy.

Perhaps....but you've got 12 guys signed for $65.8 million, leaving about $13.7 million in cap space to sign another 8-10 players. You have 3 defenders under contract for that season. While there may be a slight increase in the cap, that too is probably nothing that will help this situation. You guys are going to have to shed some salary and/or not resign guys in other circumstances you'd prefer to keep.

I'm not saying it's impossible. What I am saying is the roster's going to look significantly different. So, back to my original point, if I'm Tyler Johnson and I'm staying to be part of this well constructed team, there's a lot more uncertainty about the future than he might be comfortable shouldering.

 

[txpd]

My question is why would Carolina trade for a small offensive forward with an injury history after trading just that kind of player away this off season?

 

[Stickpucker]

Can someone help me understand how much better Johnson is than Rask? If not how about Rask + 3rd for Johnson.

Canes get smaller but a little more offensive upside. TB saves 1m and get a 3C with similar offensive numbers post triplets line.

 

[AndreRoy]

Perhaps....but you've got 12 guys signed for $65.8 million, leaving about $13.7 million in cap space to sign another 8-10 players. You have 3 defenders under contract for that season. While there may be a slight increase in the cap, that too is probably nothing that will help this situation. You guys are going to have to shed some salary and/or not resign guys in other circumstances you'd prefer to keep.

I'm not saying it's impossible. What I am saying is the roster's going to look significantly different. So, back to my original point, if I'm Tyler Johnson and I'm staying to be part of this well constructed team, there's a lot more uncertainty about the future than he might be comfortable shouldering.

Callahan, Coburn, and Girardi all come off the books; none of them is much of a loss and all can easily be replaced from within. Stralman will also walk; he’s a much bigger loss but with McDonagh-Sergachev as our second pairing going forward all we really need is somebody who can play effectively with Hedman and either Foote or Cernak should hopefully be capable of handling that cushy assignment (even Jake Dotchin did well in that role his rookie year and he’s barely an NHL defenseman at this point.) Then we’ll probably be looking at trading Miller after next season, but the Lightning were a top team before he arrived and again finding someone who can play with Kucherov and Stamkos isn’t going to be a challenge.

At that point we should be able to keep everyone else assuming we bridge Point and Sergachev. If we can’t do that then we might be looking at losing Gourde which would be a shame, but as with Miller we were a top team before he arrived and have the depth to replace him from within if necessary. The important thing is that we are in no danger of losing any of our core and have enough NHL-caliber depth in our farm system to replace the complementary pieces as needed.

Which is precisely why our recent draft strategy has been to eschew high risk, high reward prospects for players with lower expected ceilings but higher expected floors. We’ve got our stars already; what we need is to fill in the holes with solid depth players who can over perform on their ELCs. Our farm system may not have a lot of high end talent left but we’re absolutely loaded with guys who will become effective NHL players, and the way we scout some of them will overachieve and be significantly better than expected.

So in short I’m not really worried about our cap situation going forward unless we make a huge acquisition like Karlsson. Yes, we’re going to lose some complementary players, but the only guy I’m really concerned about replacing is Stralman and both Foote and Cernak show enough potential that I think at least one of them will likely prove effective opposite the best defenseman in the game. The rest of our losses will be in areas that are easy to replace (complementary wingers and bottom pairing defensemen.)

 

[CupsOverCash]

Perhaps....but you've got 12 guys signed for $65.8 million, leaving about $13.7 million in cap space to sign another 8-10 players. You have 3 defenders under contract for that season. While there may be a slight increase in the cap, that too is probably nothing that will help this situation. You guys are going to have to shed some salary and/or not resign guys in other circumstances you'd prefer to keep.

I'm not saying it's impossible. What I am saying is the roster's going to look significantly different. So, back to my original point, if I'm Tyler Johnson and I'm staying to be part of this well constructed team, there's a lot more uncertainty about the future than he might be comfortable shouldering.

If I was SY, I would trade Miller before his NTC kicks in, see if you can trade Callahan (At this point its 1 year left) if not just buy him out, and see if you can trade Killorn or Johnson (both have NTC). Losing these guys would hurt as we would most likely have young first year players taking their spots, however I really like our young players. Still if we managed to do that would save about 10-15 mil to sign Point, Gourde, and another RHD. Fill the rest with guys ready to play on the big team. Foote, Cernak, Stephens, Joseph, Volkov, Katchouk, and Raddysh are all guys who should be ready to play with us by then. While we will still have Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman, Point, McDonagh, Palat, and Sergachev to build around. Hard part as you pointed out will be getting a Killorn or Johnson to waive, but maybe they can be convinced??

 

[GoldiFox]

My question is why would Carolina trade for a small offensive forward with an injury history after trading just that kind of player away this off season?

Skinner is average NHL size (5'11" 200 lbs) and he has missed 3 total games in the past 3 seasons.

Canes traded Skinner for largely the same reason he had Buffalo as one of the couple teams on his NMC list. They want a "culture change" and they felt Skinner was a player that didn't seem too upset by losing.

Canes would potentially want Johnson because he is a Center. Which doesn't matter much because Tyler Johnson negotiated a Full NTC into his contract until 2021 to specifically avoid being traded to a team like Carolina. Nobody is going to want to play in front of a steaming pile of Scott Darling.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

I'm good with the Faulk - Johnson swap assuming the NTCs can be worked out.

 

[LakeLivin]

Skinner is average NHL size (5'11" 200 lbs) and he has missed 3 total games in the past 3 seasons.
. . .

Foolish Canes fan, Skinner has a history of concussions and is one hit away from being a vegetable. That must be a fact because I see it posted all the time on these boards! Sabres will be lucky if they get 20 games out of him this season!

 

[AndreRoy]

Hard part as you pointed out will be getting a Killorn or Johnson to waive, but maybe they can be convinced??

Unless he’s dead set on playing center I don’t see any reason why Johnson would waive. He’s still in our top six and should thrive playing with Point and Palat for the entire season (assuming we keep that line intact.) I could see him being frustrated if we’d kept him at 3C where he’d be playing with lesser linemates, but I don’t see us going back to that anytime soon unless we’re planning on dropping Killorn to the fourth line as the two of them have never had good chemistry.

Killorn, on the other hand, I could see agreeing to be traded to a team where he would have the chance to play in the top six again. But that said he may get that chance with us anyway if and when we trade Miller. In any event his contract goes to a modified NTC (16-team trade list) in 2020 when Serg and Vasy will be getting their new deals so assuming we can find a taker we shouldn’t have any difficulty moving him at that point - it’d just be nice to free up that money a year earlier so we could bring in a replacement for Stralman and avoid having to throw Foote or Cernak into the fire right away (though again I’m pretty confident that at least one of them will prove suitable for the task.)

 

[NotOpie]

Well, I think I made my point about the challenges facing Tampa and the Cap going forward. Sounded like the plan is trade a few guys, bridge a guy or two, let a few guys walk, and play the rookies. To me, that's a problematic path to success (something the Canes are apparently going to do this season, except with a shitload of cap space).

If the option to trade Miller is on the table, then why not a Faulk for Miller swap?

 

[AndreRoy]

If the option to trade Miller is on the table, then why not a Faulk for Miller swap?

Well from your perspective it sounds like you want a center; Miller aside from his skill at faceoffs is better suited to the wing.

From our perspective I’m just not sure Faulk is the right fit for us. Next season the Miller-Faulk swap is cap neutral so that isn’t a problem, but with Hedman-Stralman and McDonagh-Sergachev as our expected top four the acquisition of Faulk is basically an offensive upgrade to our bottom pairing whether we put him there or Serg. It’d be different if Faulk was better defensively - at least then we could say pushing Serg back to the bottom pairing strengthens our defense in the top four without costing us offensively - but as things stand I’m not so certain Serg won’t be the better defender by the end of the season and he’s already shown what he can do in the offensive zone. And as far as the power play is concerned unless we give Faulk Hedman’s spot I don’t see how he really improves us (and as awful as Hedman’s shot is his passing is pretty damn good, so do we mess with something that was working well for us?) So again, however we pair them we’re probably looking at an offensive upgrade to our bottom pairing more than anything else.

The following season we won’t be able to afford Faulk’s cap hit without trading Killorn (who has a full NTC), Johnson (who has a full NTC and doesn’t make sense to trade for such a purpose), or Callahan (who to move with little to no retention would likely cost us something that we’d rather not part with.) And while we will be needing a replacement for Stralman that season, Faulk isn’t that replacement. Hedman should have a solid defensive defenseman as his partner - a player who allows him to roam the ice with confidence that he doesn’t have to worry about covering for the guy on the other side. Faulk obviously isn’t that sort of player and even if Serg’s defense grows by leaps and bounds next season it doesn’t make any sense to force him into that sort of role either.

Now all that said I’m not overrating Miller. Miller puts up a lot of points in the regular season but thus far in his career he has yet to do so in the playoffs. He’s great at faceoffs and can give us some physical play (both of which are major needs for us) but he’ll also make some bonehead errors with the chances he takes with his passing. So as a matter of pure value and considering he’s probably going to be traded a year later anyway, I have no objection to the idea of the swap. It’s just a question of a) which is of greater need to us: what Miller gives us or what Faulk would give us, and b) if we’re considering trading Miller for a defenseman, is Faulk the one we should be targeting or should we be looking for someone who could potentially replace Stralman as Hedman’s partner if needed?

 

[Drake1588]

With a long contract and full NTC protection for Johnson, which doesn't become partial until June 2021, you'd have to come up with a reason for him to leave sunny low-tax Florida, and a great chance to win, to engage in any Trade Tyler Johnson debates. His team is a pre-season favorite for a while. I doubt very much he will listen to such talk for years.

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

Foolish Canes fan, Skinner has a history of concussions and is one hit away from being a vegetable. That must be a fact because I see it posted all the time on these boards! Sabres will be lucky if they get 20 games out of him this season!

So do Sabres fans take a shot now...?

 

[NotOpie]

Well from your perspective it sounds like you want a center; Miller aside from his skill at faceoffs is better suited to the wing.

Not sure where you got that...right now the Canes have got lots of options at center, just not many proven ones. That said, what they are looking to replace is scoring and Miller does just that. I think the point still remains, Tampa is going to have to move some salary in 2019-20.

With a long contract and full NTC protection for Johnson, which doesn't become partial until June 2021, you'd have to come up with a reason for him to leave sunny low-tax Florida, and a great chance to win, to engage in any Trade Tyler Johnson debates. His team is a pre-season favorite for a while. I doubt very much he will listen to such talk for years.

Oh, I agree with the challenges of getting Johnson to waive. Not sure I would either. But there might be some motivation if Carolina can sell him on a bigger role, etc., etc. However, right now, there's really not a compelling argument.

 

[God King Fudge]

I don't think it'd be that tough to get Johnson to waive, TBH. He is very clearly the odd man out in TB at F. Between Gourde coming in and having a very Tyler Johnson like season and the emergence of Brayden Point who has very easily leapfrogged TJ, I'm not sure there's a spot for him in the top 6.

I agree with the idea of getting an opportunity to be a key piece would be enticing to TJ.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Well, I think I made my point about the challenges facing Tampa and the Cap going forward. Sounded like the plan is trade a few guys, bridge a guy or two, let a few guys walk, and play the rookies. To me, that's a problematic path to success (something the Canes are apparently going to do this season, except with a ****load of cap space).

If the option to trade Miller is on the table, then why not a Faulk for Miller swap?

Im fairly confident SY finds a solution. Hes been great in getting us out of these cap jams.

 

[AndreRoy]

I don't think it'd be that tough to get Johnson to waive, TBH. He is very clearly the odd man out in TB at F. Between Gourde coming in and having a very Tyler Johnson like season and the emergence of Brayden Point who has very easily leapfrogged TJ, I'm not sure there's a spot for him in the top 6.

I agree with the idea of getting an opportunity to be a key piece would be enticing to TJ.

I disagree. He has a spot at 2RW alongside Point and Palat, a line that was by far our best in the last postseason. Yes, we do have a ready replacement for him in Gourde should we move him, but that doesn’t mean we need to or should do so and having the luxury of playing Gourde on our third line helps a great deal with scoring depth which has been a major problem for us. Plus there’s a good chance we trade Miller after next season so if we really want to bring Gourde back into the top six that’s an opportunity to do so. Finally I think we should see if Stamkos can stay healthy through another season and if Gourde can replicate his offensive success from last year before we declare Johnson expendable in the first place - and even if they can Johnson was by far the best of the three in the postseason especially at even strength.

I just don’t get everybody’s fascination with trading Johnson. Yes, we have the ability to replace him to some extent if there’s a deal that makes sense for us, but it seems like some people want to trade him just because we can afford to do so. He’s been one of the best players on our team the last four years - we should be in no hurry to get rid of him.

 

[AndreRoy]

Not sure where you got that...right now the Canes have got lots of options at center, just not many proven ones. That said, what they are looking to replace is scoring and Miller does just that. I think the point still remains, Tampa is going to have to move some salary in 2019-20.

If you want Miller that’s fine, but I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make here considering trading Miller for Faulk does nothing to clear the cap space we need.

Now if you want to offer futures for Miller then that would be relevant to your statements regarding our cap situation but we’ve got no reason to make that trade until next summer.

 

[CupsOverCash]

I disagree. He has a spot at 2RW alongside Point and Palat, a line that was by far our best in the last postseason. Yes, we do have a ready replacement for him in Gourde should we move him, but that doesn’t mean we need to or should do so and having the luxury of playing Gourde on our third line helps a great deal with scoring depth which has been a major problem for us. Plus there’s a good chance we trade Miller after next season so if we really want to bring Gourde back into the top six that’s an opportunity to do so. Finally I think we should see if Stamkos can stay healthy through another season and if Gourde can replicate his offensive success from last year before we declare Johnson expendable in the first place - and even if they can Johnson was by far the best of the three in the postseason especially at even strength.

I just don’t get everybody’s fascination with trading Johnson. Yes, we have the ability to replace him to some extent if there’s a deal that makes sense for us, but it seems like some people want to trade him just because we can afford to do so. He’s been one of the best players on our team the last four years - we should be in no hurry to get rid of him.

Well I think one of Miller, Johnson, or Killorn will go next year. Possibly 2 depending on what other moves we make. It could possibly come down to what the return would be for these guys. Whoever returns the best for our needs would be moved. Could be Johnson. For me it just depends on what we want to do. I love Johnson but if Karlsson wanted to sign here I would trade all 3 of those guys and fill the rest of the roster with ELC guys. We have enough top end talent to spread it throughout the lineup. So really it depends on a few things that we just dont know right now.