Fantasy Mock Voting (Standings Posted #178)

[hockeynorth]

Welp....

Here is what I did....

I am not proud.

BNL votes 2020

This is actually quite difficult. I could spend hours trying to justify this but I dont have time for that crap.


the Pacif

1 Vegas (A top end one two center punch, dicey on the wings but a top end defense group)
2 Edmonton (Not a huge fan of the wings....but I do like the defense....and they have Crosby and Price)
3 SJ (Kadri? wtf? I do like the wingers though....and I think the D group s underrated)
4 LA (pretty close to going with Anaheim, Markstrom)
5 Anaheim (Luke Kunin....I dont know who you are.....I feel shame. This team is probably awesome)
6 Arizona (Not a gaudreau fan, or a fan of the centers. The wings are good though. The D and Quick dont really help me)
7 Calgary (Nostrils has a good line...after that Im a little worried....basically all the way down to Kuemper)
8 Vancouver (This roster is probably much better than it looks.....but it looks like shit). Almost as confusing as my team)


Central

1 Dallas (Actually this team is really solid. Well done...whoever you are)
2 .Chicago (Gusev and Labanc.....this cant be right...*checks the rest of the division* ....oh) <----that D tho
3 Winnpeg (Defensively seems like a horse of a team at first glance.....at second glance TJ plays LW?)
4 Colorado (McDavid)
5 St Louis (I wanted Necas, and Kempe, and Parayko....amd Couts....just some solid players here....)
6 Nashville (a lot of guys that I wouldnt want in my top 9.....but who the f*** am I to say?)
7 Minnesota (James Neal)

Metro

1 Columbus (Solid until Namestnikov and Boqvist for me....which is pretty good. But this division....kill me now.)
2 New Jersey (well balanced....albeit young....another solid top 6)
3 Carolina (this team seems pretty filthy but I dont know some of these guys that well)
4 NYI (Well balanced for me....I had to come back around)
5 Philadelphia (equal parts solid and dicey....its was Weal.....and marleau....and Edler)
6 Washington (honestly Sweden would destroy the NHL....they jus know how to team) <-- may have been bumped up to 5??
7 NYR (what do you want from me??!? The defence is wrecking me)
8 Pittsburgh (I failed the Metro)

Atlantic

1 Tampa (so smooth)
2 Detroit (pumping my tires)
3 Florida (I had to think on this one...I had to work to justify Perry on the 1st line...pretty high end core)
4 Buffalo (A solid team with high end goaltending....not much star power....)
5 Montreal (its a toss up between Montreal and Toronto but I went with Bob....and with Giordano. Trophy winners)
6 Toronto (Solidly deep....lacking a superstar IMO)
7 Boston (I dont know. Im really not a big fan of the wings or the defense....its hard to tell though)
8 Ottawa (not really big on the RS defence or centers....I tried to not vote Ottawa last)

Apologies for mistakes/typos....or if I trashed your team.

WHAT ID BE SHOCKED

 

[Nucker101]

PandaScore is just a summary of how good a player is at keeping possession, getting more dangerous chances, and outscoring.

My player ratings took some of those numbers into consideration but I used a multi-season sample size

 

[Panda Bear]

My player ratings took some of those numbers into consideration but I used a multi-season sample size

PandaScore, as has been stated a few times, now weights across three seasons of data.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

PandaScore, as has been stated a few times, now weights across three seasons of data.

Id like to see 10.

 

[Panda Bear]

I still have no clue what Panda's charts mean

As for playoffs, I like the potential debating of matchups. I also like polls and getting outside opinions. However, I am 100% behind the team A vs team B if we do go with polls. It'd be sweet if we could do both in some way but I have no idea how that would work...

I updated it so the first sheet is now an explanation.

Three seasons of data, all against elite competition, looks at how good a player has been in driving chances, generating more dangerous chances, and outscoring. High numbers are good except for PDO, which is a measure of luck.

 

[Nucker101]

PandaScore, as has been stated a few times, now weights across three seasons of data.

And I’m glad it does

 

[Panda Bear]

Id like to see 10.

It'd be like 60/30/9/1/0/0/0/0/0/0.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

WHAT ID BE SHOCKED

aye. that was harsh.....if its any consolation....save for Ottawa, Edmonton and Washington I had no idea whos team was whos.

 

[OB5]

aye. that was harsh.....if its any consolation....save for Ottawa, Edmonton and Washington I had no idea whos team was whos.

Same I liked that I didn’t remember whose was whose.

 

[Gibby]

Well I like my team, I don't care about any charts! (sorry Panda)



I think the Raanta is really solid.

I think my Werenski and Theodore will really be able to kick start the offense. Jensen and DeKeyser skate well and get the puck out of trouble really well. Hronek has huge potential playing with the talent on this team.

The forward group has underrated offensive potential. Connor has proven he can be a weapon on the wing. Getzlaf and Bertuzzi have some more legitimate talent around them. The bottom 6 skates very well while also being able to play a physical game and everyone of those guy can take faceoffs and do it pretty well, an underrated asset. As a whole I like how hard my forwards have shown they play and how reliable they are in their own end. I don't feel like any of these lines really has to be sheltered defensively and my centres are really strong in the dot which will also help in thay regard.

Hope I get into playoffs and maybe can talk this team up a bit more.

 

[Horse McHindu]

Welp....

Here is what I did....

I am not proud.

BNL votes 2020

This is actually quite difficult. I could spend hours trying to justify this but I dont have time for that crap.


the Pacif

1 Vegas (A top end one two center punch, dicey on the wings but a top end defense group)
2 Edmonton (Not a huge fan of the wings....but I do like the defense....and they have Crosby and Price)
3 SJ (Kadri? wtf? I do like the wingers though....and I think the D group s underrated)
4 LA (pretty close to going with Anaheim, Markstrom)
5 Anaheim (Luke Kunin....I dont know who you are.....I feel shame. This team is probably awesome)
6 Arizona (Not a gaudreau fan, or a fan of the centers. The wings are good though. The D and Quick dont really help me)
7 Calgary (Nostrils has a good line...after that Im a little worried....basically all the way down to Kuemper)
8 Vancouver (This roster is probably much better than it looks.....but it looks like shit). Almost as confusing as my team)


Central

1 Dallas (Actually this team is really solid. Well done...whoever you are)
2 .Chicago (Gusev and Labanc.....this cant be right...*checks the rest of the division* ....oh) <----that D tho
3 Winnpeg (Defensively seems like a horse of a team at first glance.....at second glance TJ plays LW?)
4 Colorado (McDavid)
5 St Louis (I wanted Necas, and Kempe, and Parayko....amd Couts....just some solid players here....)
6 Nashville (a lot of guys that I wouldnt want in my top 9.....but who the f*** am I to say?)
7 Minnesota (James Neal)

Metro

1 Columbus (Solid until Namestnikov and Boqvist for me....which is pretty good. But this division....kill me now.)
2 New Jersey (well balanced....albeit young....another solid top 6)
3 Carolina (this team seems pretty filthy but I dont know some of these guys that well)
4 NYI (Well balanced for me....I had to come back around)
5 Philadelphia (equal parts solid and dicey....its was Weal.....and marleau....and Edler)
6 Washington (honestly Sweden would destroy the NHL....they jus know how to team) <-- may have been bumped up to 5??
7 NYR (what do you want from me??!? The defence is wrecking me)
8 Pittsburgh (I failed the Metro)

Atlantic

1 Tampa (so smooth)
2 Detroit (pumping my tires)
3 Florida (I had to think on this one...I had to work to justify Perry on the 1st line...pretty high end core)
4 Buffalo (A solid team with high end goaltending....not much star power....)
5 Montreal (its a toss up between Montreal and Toronto but I went with Bob....and with Giordano. Trophy winners)
6 Toronto (Solidly deep....lacking a superstar IMO)
7 Boston (I dont know. Im really not a big fan of the wings or the defense....its hard to tell though)
8 Ottawa (not really big on the RS defence or centers....I tried to not vote Ottawa last)

Apologies for mistakes/typos....or if I trashed your team.

Did James Neal steal your lunch money as a kid? :-p. Love him or hate him, he did manage to score 19 goals this past season.

 

[LT]

Ok, I get that. But you’d be paranoid too if your team was last all the time...for everyone to see.

Meh. Without sounding awful, Ottawa is regularly first in PB's chart but in the two votes I've seen has finished last in their division.

Assuming these numbers are even correct and measuring what they're supposed to (which is a MASSIVE assumption), there are so many things that they don't capture. Outside of maybe baseball, there are just far too many elements and moving parts to sports for even a giant spreadsheet to capture things adequately.

If you build off of a set of any stats, you're probably not going to end up with a good team plain and simple. That's why scouts still have jobs. Intuition and our eyes are still generally the best tests for player abilities.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

Did James Neal steal your lunch money as a kid? :-p. Love him or hate him, he did manage to score 19 goals this past season.

Yeah....I mean I already see several issues with my votes....but oh well. I tried to think it through.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

Did James Neal steal your lunch money as a kid? :-p. Love him or hate him, he did manage to score 19 goals this past season.

In answer to your question....I think he is close to LTIR....and even if you ignore that....im not sure he ought to be on a 1st line.

 

[LT]

Did James Neal steal your lunch money as a kid? :-p. Love him or hate him, he did manage to score 19 goals this past season.

He also got traded for Lucic so...

 

[Panda Bear]

Meh. Without sounding awful, Ottawa is regularly first in PB's chart but in the two votes I've seen has finished last in their division.

Assuming these numbers are even correct and measuring what they're supposed to (which is a MASSIVE assumption), there are so many things that they don't capture. Outside of maybe baseball, there are just far too many elements and moving parts to sports for even a giant spreadsheet to capture things adequately.

If you build off of a set of any stats, you're probably not going to end up with a good team plain and simple. That's why scouts still have jobs. Intuition and our eyes are still generally the best tests for player abilities.

1) Data taken from three seasons against quantifiable "elite" production using a combination of actual production, GF% and two other metrics weighted to their correlation to GF%. It's not perfect, but it does describe how well a player tends to do in terms of possession, generating dangerous chances, and potting points.

So no, it's not perfect, but it's a decent guide for which way the ice tilts when a player is on.

2) I only used it as a reference for my picks. Every single line and pairing that I have stylistically work with players occupying complementary roles in their actual, real positions.

People keep missing the second point. For example, Kreider-Danault-Nichushkin is a line with a monster net crasher, a centre with great support play and positioning, and a guy who's great at both transporting the puck and forechecking.

 

[LT]

1) Data taken from three seasons against quantifiable "elite" production using a combination of actual production, GF% and two other metrics weighted to their correlation to GF%. It's not perfect, but it does describe how well a player tends to do in terms of possession, generating dangerous chances, and potting points.

So no, it's not perfect, but it's a decent guide for which way the ice tilts when a player is on.

Sure, but are these team-adjusted? What about who they're on the ice with? There are so many subjective things being controlled for that it's very easy to lose meaning quickly.

I work with climate models for a living so I'm keenly aware of the assumptions that go into model building and data analysis. Just like with climate, we will never truly model or understand hockey. We can have good ideas, but these can quickly be turned on their head with new information.

Possession metrics seem inherently flawed for obvious reasons. The new data that the NHL will have with player and puck tracking will shed huge amounts of light on true possession and generating meaningful plays. But it still won't give us every answer.

2) I only used it as a reference for my picks. Every single line and pairing that I have stylistically work with players occupying complementary roles in their actual, real positions.

People keep missing the second point. For example, Kreider-Danault-Nichushkin is a line with a monster net crasher, a centre with great support play and positioning, and a guy who's great at both transporting the puck and forechecking.

I find this a bit hard to believe given your ranking in your own metrics. It's an easy thing to say and be conscious of, but the subconscious effects are ever present and can be hard to override. I know I found myself having trouble picking someone with poor stats who I know is good over someone with great stats who I know isn't. It's natural and expected and one of the hardest things to control for when picking.

 

[Paralyzer008]

It's always interesting to see other people's votes because you're like "okay well we agreed there" and then you notice their No.1 is your No.7/8 and you're like "...what have I done? Or what were they thinking? Who is right???"

 

[Panda Bear]

Sure, but are these team-adjusted? What about who they're on the ice with? There are so many subjective things being controlled for that it's very easy to lose meaning quickly.

I work with climate models for a living so I'm keenly aware of the assumptions that go into model building and data analysis. Just like with climate, we will never truly model or understand hockey. We can have good ideas, but these can quickly be turned on their head with new information.

Possession metrics seem inherently flawed for obvious reasons. The new data that the NHL will have with player and puck tracking will shed huge amounts of light on true possession and generating meaningful plays. But it still won't give us every answer.



I find this a bit hard to believe given your ranking in your own metrics. It's an easy thing to say and be conscious of, but the subconscious effects are ever present and can be hard to override. I know I found myself having trouble picking someone with poor stats who I know is good over someone with great stats who I know isn't. It's natural and expected and one of the hardest things to control for when picking.

1) No, they're not team adjusted. There are some controls for linemates using relative statistics, but that's it. It's not a genuinely robust model nor does it pretend to be.

2) Yes, they are flawed. CF, for example, has a correlation of only 0.345 with GF%. This is why I used the correlation as a constant for all CF sums. And yet, there are still flaws.

3) Sure. I chose the formula, and I chose the players that I liked the most (i.e. the eye test) amongst those that scored well relative to draft round. Of course there's bias.

It would be crazy if I didn't have the best score according to my own algorithm since I actively chose players filtered by it. If I can be bothered, I'll apply it to the SuperDraft--where I haven't used the PandaScores at all--and see how I do.

 

[hockeynorth]

aye. that was harsh.....if its any consolation....save for Ottawa, Edmonton and Washington I had no idea whos team was whos.

Haha yeah I was mostly joking, I was just shocked how low you had my group and didn’t like my forwards when I get they were some of the best

 

[Joey Moss]

We're now at 20 votes keep them coming

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

Haha yeah I was mostly joking, I was just shocked how low you had my group and didn’t like my forwards when I get they were some of the best

I mean its not hard to talk myself into liking most of these teams. But Im pretty biased. I think there are a number of teams that just have guys I dont watch much.

I had to work up to liking my own team. lol.

 

[Horse McHindu]

In answer to your question....I think he is close to LTIR....and even if you ignore that....im not sure he ought to be on a 1st line.

Fair enough. Yeah I’ve heard that from a few people now. I wanted to change my lines but teams started submitting their votes quite early.

 

[Horse McHindu]

He also got traded for Lucic so...

I’m gonna be honest mate.

I have absolutely nothing to say in my defense on that one.

:-(

 

[Horse McHindu]

Edit - never mind