Fantasy Mock p3

[Panda Bear]

Well shit. You gonna do that for everyone? Always fun reading this stuff.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

That's not what I'm saying.

Almost every single line combination in this draft is a hypothetical. Sometimes players do well when they move teams, and sometimes they don't. We see this every year at the trade deadline. We see this every year with free agent signings. We literally have no idea how well any of these lines will actually function even if we can analyse each player's profile and find seeming fits.

Every single participant is going to assume the best case scenario for their picks, which is why Skinner and Kessel and Saad and all these these guys who have just been off and bad this year will suddenly play to what the participant imagines is their potential--even if they're past it or carrying injuries. But we know that not every player does well even though it seems like they should when they first move.

It's just not realistic to assume that everyone will magically play their best, and it's hard to know if someone can even still play their best if they haven't been doing it recently.

Yes, players will perform definitely on different teams with different linemates. Sometimes they will play better, the same, or the worse. But in this scenario where literally every player--save a spare few--would be playing with new players, it's crazy to assume that all of them will be better.

What I'm saying is that we have so, so, so many impossible-to-know variables with how these players might perform together that it's just not productive to think like that. Instead, we should look at we do know, which is this season for this season's playoffs.

Evidence is better than conjecture.

P.S. Your Ryan Strome stats are bunk.

Re: Strome stats
22 points in 100 games with Edmonton works out to 18 over 82. He's already got 59 points on Panarin's line this year with several games left. My stats aren't bunk.

I think we're agreeing that the variables of these rosters and lines go beyond any one stat or group of stats, I'm just trying to add several kilograms of grains of salt to the stats, which you're seemingly presenting, as absolute to predict the value of these teams. As belair just mentioned, the variables leading to your stats are thrown upside down when the players are put into an entirely different roster playing entirely different teams. If you can back up your theory to have predicted Vegas' success in their inaugural year, that's a different story.

 

[Paralyzer008]

Well shit. You gonna do that for everyone? Always fun reading this stuff.

I don't know if I want to do this for everyone especially division rivals although when playoffs are formed, I can throw a post up to analyze matchups.

If someone posts after me, I'll do Colorado and then go to bed.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

2 picks before mine and the clock doesn't start until midnight my time. Disaster

 

[Horse McHindu]

Well at 1C, Mark Scheifele is one of the most interesting talents in the league right now. Defensively, his rates suggest he gets shelled - around 48 FA/60 is not a good look at 5v5. Scheifele makes up for it by consistently using one of the best shots in the league to score (as does his linemate Laine, and Scheifele/Wheeler are both talented passers) - which is why he is usually at a 101 PDO and over 50% GF regardless of the defensive problems. His last three years are on a ridiculous 18%, 19% and 17% shooting - which is well above league average. He'll produce - and on the PP he'll produce - but in a playoff scenario, you may want to get him away from other team's most elite lines. You may want to pair that with a shutdown C. EDIT: Also to add - I think Scheifele is a bit better defensively than these rates suggest - he plays a lot with Laine who leaves little to be desired there.

For you, that guy would be Pageau - his FA/60 numbers don't suggest a great defensive player BUT he also gets murdered with his zone starts because his coaches trust him in the defensive zone. He also leads the league in shorthanded points - looking for breaks and causing havoc through intercepting the puck. He will be your leading face-off guy for sure. I'm not sure how much I buy the hype in him being among the league's best defensively, but he's tenacious. You'd be hoping for the guy who dominated in October for Ottawa, rather than the small disaster sample size with the Isles or the two years prior.

I think ideally you'd want a stronger 2C to bridge the gap in between Scheifele + Pageau, whereas Carter just seems slower now and disinterested at times. If Carter was rejuvenated by a new team, it would go a long way, as he can still shoot.

To make the rest quicker - I love Ehlers + Toffoli on the wings, both guys are big-time two-way drivers and both can shoot the puck with quantities of chances without major defensive issues. Kapanen's speed would pair well with Pageau for fast breaks. James Neal - he can really help a PP, he's not much anything at 5v5 anymore. Marcus Foligno was one of the best defensive wingers in the NHL this year, vastly underrated physical guy who is perfect for playoffs.

On D, Brian Dumoulin is one of the best defensive D in the league, with a bit of a defensive blip last year but a great rate of 36 FA/60 this season. He's Pittsburgh's go-to guy for steadying anything and that's a perfect guy to pair with John Carlson - who is just average defensively but obviously extremely talented. Carlson actually tightened up a bit this year - he got really loose with the chances against as Trotz wanted him to take more risks but his rates are a bit better than the last two seasons. Carlson to Ovy in WSH on the PP in theory would turn to Carlson to Scheifele although positioned differently. I'm not a fan of Brady Skjei, the NYR pushed him out of their rebuild for a reason (although he can shoot) and I can actually see a guy like Matt Roy push his way up into that top 4 to give Mayfield a run for his money.

Carter Hart and Jaroslav Halak is a good tandem. They're not elite, but they won't cost you. With good D help, that'll allow them to hold the fort.

TLDR: Love your wingers in possession and ability, worried about Neal/Carter at 5v5, Pageau is going to have to deliver in tough situations, Scheifele will drive the offensive bus just fine, Dumoulin/Carlson pairing is real solid, questions about the rest of the D but there's toughness there, goalies are solid. Powerplay should produce with good shooting ability all-around the roster. Your playoff prowess depends on the D's ability to limit chances to the outside (driven by Dumoulin + maybe Roy) and your lines outside of Scheifele being able to handle tougher defensive assignments.

I did this really late so, I might have been dumb on some points.

Wow, awesome stuff!!! :-o

Thank you for that.

 

[Paralyzer008]

Colorado

Skinner-McDavid-Teravainen - this line is a really interesting one! Obviously Connor McDavid is Connor McDavid - however there's a key of this line that I really like. I don't think McDavid is THAT great defensively and it shows in his FA/60 numbers - he was a lot better in his first two seasons than the last three (and he's better than the numbers suggest). A big part of this is a lot of his chances end up as quick fast breaks rather than sustained zone time and his linemates don't do anything defensively either. Enter Teuvo Teravainen.

Teravainen has consistently been a fantastic defensive player his entire career - in fact, every season he's played has been under a 40 FA/60 and his GF% the last three years is 56% or higher. His offensive ability has increased, leading to great 5v5 possession numbers. McDavid hasn't really had that kind of guy beside him ever - even Draisaitl's success with him is more of a fast break and PP chemistry than sustained 5v5 time. Teravainen may allow for McDavid to cycle and trade more than ever - an extremely deadly combination. EDIT: RNH may be the closest comparable as a linemate and Teravainen would be better.

The Skinner part? Not bad. He's very mediocre defensively but his role on this line would be to stand where McDavid can pass to him - easy enough. With his shot and speed to keep up with Connor, there's a high chance of some kind of rebound here. He's a year removed from 40 goals with a similar player. I don't think he's the driver of this line at all, but his PP value will be immense. Could you do better? Yeah, but this was a late pick anyways.

Line 2 - I'd usually say this line is a complete talented enigma, especially defensively but there's promise - Duchene is usually quite mediocre in his own end but saw a big improvement in a tighter Nashville system - he should really benefit from McDavid taking the elite guys on. To give Duchene credit, he's awesome at face-offs. Drouin's GF numbers are always mediocre despite alright FA/60 rates due to lapses - it's not like he's all bad here but he's prone to maddening inconsistency. I've never been impressed by Dzingel but his game is using speed and not necessarily creating possession. This line has potential to dazzle you with dekes and then the next shift make you want to pull hair out - but it has potential.

Line 3 - Heinen is a smart player who does a lot of good little things - he just couldn't make anything happen offensively this season. My other problem with Heinen is in the playoffs, increased contact renders him invisible. A rebound here is quite possible though and he won't kill you defensively at all. Dach had an average if not unspectacular rookie campaign, he has plenty of growing to do. He couldn't win a face-off to save his life but that'll change, and he provides good energy. Kahun is in a similar vein to Heinen with bigger upside and lower downside - I owned him in fantasy and he is the definition of hot/cold. In the last half of his Penguins days, he showed an increased defensive ability and hasn't been under 57% GF yet. As far as 3rd lines go, this line doesn't kill you and has some upside to help chip in.

Line 4 - Brian Boyle had his worst year ever this year defensively and I wonder if he's done, but he's a really good room guy. He can still produce a bit and he'll win you face-offs, but a nasty back-to-back 46% and 42% possession at 5v5 worries you. His GF% hasn't been above 50% since 2016-17.

D1 - Spurgeon is an extremely solid puckmover and skater, love that guy. He's a first pairing D and a huge part of getting McDavid the puck. I thought the hype on Girard was a bit high until this year but his rates dropped to around 41 FA/60 and his GF% hit 55% - with his ability to skate and transition, he's got a nice career ahead if he can avoid injury. This pairing is definitely above-average - in the playoffs, I wonder how two really small guys work together.

D2 - On one hand, we have Orlov, who is probably a tad underrated due to solid FA/60 numbers and ability to move the puck (by the way, the theme of your blueline being a puckmoving one is good for Connor). Despite that, Orlov has trouble breaking 50% GF at 5v5 and that is because of the odd lapse. He's perfectly suited for pairing 2. Nick Leddy, on the other hand, has been caved in defensively for three straight years (with 2 of those reflecting in his GF% stats). I'm glad both guys can move the puck, but I'm concerned about Leddy's horrid possession ability.

G - Devan Dubnyk - No stat can really defend his terrible season - which was bad enough that Bruce Boudreau had to go to Alex Stalock (!) as the No.1 goalie. It was a disaster on all fronts. My concern is he really wasn't too great last year either, with only a paltry .799 save percentage at high-danger in 2018-19 (.739 this year). I don't know if he's cooked, but it's heading that way. You'll need a rebound fast.

PP: Connor McDavid. That alone makes it a top 10 PP, and there's enough talent here to make it a top 5 PP...but it's possible a lack of consistency makes it fall just short. In theory, with Duchene/Skinner/Teravainen (maybe Drouin) - it'll have enough weapons to produce a lot along with the D that can QB by keeping things moving quickly.

PK: With Dubnyk's struggles, you'll have to have a really strong PK to throw out and while I think Orlov/Teravainen is a strong suppression start, I'm not in love with any other fits here aside from Spurgeon. Spurgeon plays PK a lot and is a premium shot blocker but his rates are just alright EDIT: To be fair to Spurgeon, blocking shots is a big part of the PK and he is one of the best - Leddy/Girard never play PK at all. At forward, you might have to play McDavid here as practically none of the others are used to minutes here.

TLDR: 1st line has potential to be the best in the league and is automatically awesome because McDavid/Teravainen combo. 2nd line will be way up in potential creativity and also maddening. 3rd line won't kill you defensively but it's upside is up to Dach needing to drive the bus. D can really move that puck and 1st pairing is truly unique being small yet effective. 2nd pair could work, but Leddy has to improve. Dubnyk is a big problem that may not just effect 5v5 but also the PK - because the PK is average at best with a good goalie nevermind a struggling one. PP should be great and lethal if Skinner rebounds.

I'd be tempted to try Drouin with McDavid on the PP because in theory, Drouin's hands SHOULD create some amazing passing plays with Connor.

 

[Llamamoto]

Thanks for that @Paralyzer008. Really informative and in-depth.



Looking to trade up for a higher 16th round pick. PM me!

 

[Paralyzer008]

Thanks for that @Paralyzer008. Really informative and in-depth.



Looking to trade up for a higher 16th round pick. PM me!

Thanks! It could be complete hot air - I'm just not tired so I typed a lot.

I took Mantha as my no.1 RW but I was hoping for Teravainen and you took him slightly before me if I recall.

 

[OB5]

Three cheers for @Paralyzer008 and @Panda Bear holy crap.

And also @Joey Moss for obvious reasons

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Sorry for bringing this up so much later, I actually hadn't noticed until just now, but how do we feel about Oskar Lindblom being drafted?
In OP it says our goal is to win this year, and Lindblom may not even play next season, let alone this one.

Reason I'm asking this is because I'm looking down my list at other players with long-term injuries.

Cheers

 

[Llamamoto]

Sorry for bringing this up so much later, I actually hadn't noticed until just now, but how do we feel about Oskar Lindblom being drafted?
In OP it says our goal is to win this year, and Lindblom may not even play next season, let alone this one.

Reason I'm asking this is because I'm looking down my list at other players with long-term injuries.

Cheers

I'm pretty sure the rule is that as long as a player's played at least 1 game in the 2019-20 season, we assume that they will be healthy.

 

[Blinny]

How do you figure? I have all the players listed in each category you don't have to research yourself. I will be keeping track of who has to pick from which category and cap again.

And for that we are eternally greatful. You’ve done a fantastic job running this one and I am one of the 5 to get into the next one.

 

[Blinny]

That's not what I'm saying.

Almost every single line combination in this draft is a hypothetical. Sometimes players do well when they move teams, and sometimes they don't. We see this every year at the trade deadline. We see this every year with free agent signings. We literally have no idea how well any of these lines will actually function even if we can analyse each player's profile and find seeming fits.

Every single participant is going to assume the best case scenario for their picks, which is why Skinner and Kessel and Saad and all these these guys who have just been off and bad this year will suddenly play to what the participant imagines is their potential--even if they're past it or carrying injuries. But we know that not every player does well even though it seems like they should when they first move.

It's just not realistic to assume that everyone will magically play their best, and it's hard to know if someone can even still play their best if they haven't been doing it recently.

Yes, players will perform definitely on different teams with different linemates. Sometimes they will play better, the same, or the worse. But in this scenario where literally every player--save a spare few--would be playing with new players, it's crazy to assume that all of them will be better.

What I'm saying is that we have so, so, so many impossible-to-know variables with how these players might perform together that it's just not productive to think like that. Instead, we should look at we do know, which is this season for this season's playoffs.

Evidence is better than conjecture.

P.S. Your Ryan Strome stats are bunk.

I am not thinking best case scenario when it comes to Saad. He is being used the best way he produces. He is a compliment. He isn’t elite but he is someone who can ride shotgun with an elite and ultimately produce. In his last 6 season he has had 20 goals in 5 of them. The outlier is 18. That also includes this season where he had 21 in 58 games. Pretty sure he’s damn close to 30 if the season played out.

 

[hockeynorth]

This was insane holy, well done guys

 

[OB5]

This was insane holy, well done guys

I mean we still have a while to go

 

[hockeynorth]

I mean we still have a while to go

I mean the team reports through the night.

Also @m0pe that Larsson pick is really underrated, he's an amazing 4C

 

[hockeynorth]

Looking to make some trades involving players, send me some offers

 

[m0pe]

I mean the team reports through the night.

Also @m0pe that Larsson pick is really underrated, he's an amazing 4C

Thanks. Yeah I watch the Sabres all the time so I know better than anyone else how good he is.


Picking underrated players like him may not help me much in voting, but he is the perfect 4C. (Just too bad the Sabres are so bad he was basically their 2C all year haha)

 

[hockeynorth]

Thanks. Yeah I watch the Sabres all the time so I know better than anyone else how good he is.


Picking underrated players like him may not help me much in voting, but he is the perfect 4C. (Just too bad the Sabres are so bad he was basically their 2C all year haha)

It'll get some love from me lol, when I was picturing a shut down line it was either Reese-Coyle-Nichuskin as line 3 or ideally Larsson instead of Coyle and as line 4

 

[hockeynorth]

2 minutes until skipped pick, @FanofBadHockeyTeam would be up next

 

[Joey Moss]

@RIP Botchford up

 

[Gecklund]

How do you figure? I have all the players listed in each category you don't have to research yourself. I will be keeping track of who has to pick from which category and cap again.

Yeah to me it seems super time consuming and complicated for you, not for everyone else. We appreciate it though!

 

[hockeynorth]

@RIP Botchford up

10 minutes until @Peter Griffin ?

 

[BumDum]

Is @Peter Griffin up now?

 

[Llamamoto]

Is @Peter Griffin up now?

Yep.