Fantasy Mock p3

[Nucker101]

I'm surprised Derek Ryan was still available for my pick.

@Paralyzer008 and/or @Panda Bear could you analyze my team as well? I'm the Blues.

your team is one of my favs, I would've drafted Ryan if I had a bit more cap space. Nice pick.

 

[LT]

I can argue that since we are trying to win the (hypothetical) 2020 Playoffs, data from previous seasons are irrelevant.

This seems highly questionable.

It may be an extreme example, but I'm fairly certain a majority of hockey folks would rather have Joe Pavelski (who's having a miserable year) than Ryan Strome (who's having a career year) for a 2020 playoff run. That would be almost entirely based on previous seasons' results. I'm sure you can find more examples as well.

 

[Llamamoto]

This seems highly questionable.

It may be an extreme example, but I'm fairly certain a majority of hockey folks would rather have Joe Pavelski (who's having a miserable year) than Ryan Strome (who's having a career year) for a 2020 playoff run. That would be almost entirely based on previous seasons' results. I'm sure you can find more examples as well.

Agreed. We're looking at how we would expect the players to do, not how well they performed this season. If a player is a career 50 point player but had a down year, you would expect him to rebound, especially in an entirely different environment.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

This seems highly questionable.

It may be an extreme example, but I'm fairly certain a majority of hockey folks would rather have Joe Pavelski (who's having a miserable year) than Ryan Strome (who's having a career year) for a 2020 playoff run. That would be almost entirely based on previous seasons' results. I'm sure you can find more examples as well.

Hes basically saying that putting players with our new linemates on our rosters shouldn't have a big effect on this seasons performance relative to the player, and using Ryan Strome, who almost instantly went from an 18-point player in Edmonton to a 60+ point player with new linemates in New York, as his example.

Colour me skeptical

I'm not saying analytics don't deserve a voice on this, I just think it's probably less of a predictor in this particular scenario than in real life. And even in real-life should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[Paralyzer008]

Hey Paralyzer,

do you mind giving a quick analysis of my team? Would be interested to hear your thoughts.

Well at 1C, Mark Scheifele is one of the most interesting talents in the league right now. Defensively, his rates suggest he gets shelled - around 48 FA/60 is not a good look at 5v5. Scheifele makes up for it by consistently using one of the best shots in the league to score (as does his linemate Laine, and Scheifele/Wheeler are both talented passers) - which is why he is usually at a 101 PDO and over 50% GF regardless of the defensive problems. His last three years are on a ridiculous 18%, 19% and 17% shooting - which is well above league average. He'll produce - and on the PP he'll produce - but in a playoff scenario, you may want to get him away from other team's most elite lines. You may want to pair that with a shutdown C. EDIT: Also to add - I think Scheifele is a bit better defensively than these rates suggest - he plays a lot with Laine who leaves little to be desired there.

For you, that guy would be Pageau - his FA/60 numbers don't suggest a great defensive player BUT he also gets murdered with his zone starts because his coaches trust him in the defensive zone. He also leads the league in shorthanded points - looking for breaks and causing havoc through intercepting the puck. He will be your leading face-off guy for sure. I'm not sure how much I buy the hype in him being among the league's best defensively, but he's tenacious. You'd be hoping for the guy who dominated in October for Ottawa, rather than the small disaster sample size with the Isles or the two years prior.

I think ideally you'd want a stronger 2C to bridge the gap in between Scheifele + Pageau, whereas Carter just seems slower now and disinterested at times. If Carter was rejuvenated by a new team, it would go a long way, as he can still shoot.

To make the rest quicker - I love Ehlers + Toffoli on the wings, both guys are big-time two-way drivers and both can shoot the puck with quantities of chances without major defensive issues. Kapanen's speed would pair well with Pageau for fast breaks. James Neal - he can really help a PP, he's not much anything at 5v5 anymore. Marcus Foligno was one of the best defensive wingers in the NHL this year, vastly underrated physical guy who is perfect for playoffs.

On D, Brian Dumoulin is one of the best defensive D in the league, with a bit of a defensive blip last year but a great rate of 36 FA/60 this season. He's Pittsburgh's go-to guy for steadying anything and that's a perfect guy to pair with John Carlson - who is just average defensively but obviously extremely talented. Carlson actually tightened up a bit this year - he got really loose with the chances against as Trotz wanted him to take more risks but his rates are a bit better than the last two seasons. Carlson to Ovy in WSH on the PP in theory would turn to Carlson to Scheifele although positioned differently. I'm not a fan of Brady Skjei, the NYR pushed him out of their rebuild for a reason (although he can shoot) and I can actually see a guy like Matt Roy push his way up into that top 4 to give Mayfield a run for his money.

Carter Hart and Jaroslav Halak is a good tandem. They're not elite, but they won't cost you. With good D help, that'll allow them to hold the fort.

TLDR: Love your wingers in possession and ability, worried about Neal/Carter at 5v5, Pageau is going to have to deliver in tough situations, Scheifele will drive the offensive bus just fine, Dumoulin/Carlson pairing is real solid, questions about the rest of the D but there's toughness there, goalies are solid. Powerplay should produce with good shooting ability all-around the roster. Your playoff prowess depends on the D's ability to limit chances to the outside (driven by Dumoulin + maybe Roy) and your lines outside of Scheifele being able to handle tougher defensive assignments.

I did this really late so, I might have been dumb on some points.

 

[belair]

Hes basically saying that putting players with our new linemates on our rosters shouldn't have a big effect on this seasons performance relative to the player, and using Ryan Strome, who almost instantly went from an 18-point player in Edmonton to a 60+ point player with new linemates in New York, as his example.

Colour me skeptical

I'm not saying analytics don't deserve a voice on this, I just think it's probably less of a predictor in this particular scenario than in real life. And even in real-life should be taken with a grain of salt.

This is the point I was trying to make when discussing MacKenzie Weegar earlier. You valuate this player based on the statistics he puts up playing on his weak side paired with Aaron Ekblad in Florida. We're assuming that he's spending a lot of time out there with their scoring lines while also facing solid competition. This is what those stats are telling me.

So we draft him in this mock. Now we're isolating him. Taking away Ekblad, taking away those assignments in Florida and throwing him back on his natural side in a third pairing role. Those stats from Florida are meaningless now considering they're based on data where he's more often than not the weakest contributor to what's happening on the ice and you're now giving him an entirely different job.

 

[Joey Moss]

It seems super fun, but also incredibly time consuming

How do you figure? I have all the players listed in each category you don't have to research yourself. I will be keeping track of who has to pick from which category and cap again.

 

[Panda Bear]

Hes basically saying that putting players with our new linemates on our rosters shouldn't have a big effect on this seasons performance relative to the player, and using Ryan Strome, who almost instantly went from an 18-point player in Edmonton to a 60+ point player with new linemates in New York, as his example.

Colour me skeptical

That's not what I'm saying.

Almost every single line combination in this draft is a hypothetical. Sometimes players do well when they move teams, and sometimes they don't. We see this every year at the trade deadline. We see this every year with free agent signings. We literally have no idea how well any of these lines will actually function even if we can analyse each player's profile and find seeming fits.

Every single participant is going to assume the best case scenario for their picks, which is why Skinner and Kessel and Saad and all these these guys who have just been off and bad this year will suddenly play to what the participant imagines is their potential--even if they're past it or carrying injuries. But we know that not every player does well even though it seems like they should when they first move.

It's just not realistic to assume that everyone will magically play their best, and it's hard to know if someone can even still play their best if they haven't been doing it recently.

Yes, players will perform definitely on different teams with different linemates. Sometimes they will play better, the same, or the worse. But in this scenario where literally every player--save a spare few--would be playing with new players, it's crazy to assume that all of them will be better.

What I'm saying is that we have so, so, so many impossible-to-know variables with how these players might perform together that it's just not productive to think like that. Instead, we should look at we do know, which is this season for this season's playoffs.

Evidence is better than conjecture.

P.S. Your Ryan Strome stats are bunk.

 

[Panda Bear]

As for Weegar, he's played 210 minutes this season without Ekblad. Even when he's without Ekblad, Florida is better off with him on the ice than otherwise.

If I have to control for time on ice with teammates--which relative stats do to an extent--then I'll have to blow my brains out or become a statistician.

PuckIQ | Wowy | Aaron Ekblad

 

[Llamamoto]

That's not what I'm saying.

Almost every single line combination in this draft is a hypothetical. Sometimes players do well when they move teams, and sometimes they don't. We see this every year at the trade deadline. We see this every year with free agent signings. We literally have no idea how well any of these lines will actually function even if we can analyse each player's profile and find seeming fits.

Every single participant is going to assume the best case scenario for their picks, which is why Skinner and Kessel and Saad and all these these guys who have just been off and bad this year will suddenly play to what the participant imagines is their potential--even if they're past it or carrying injuries. But we know that not every player does well even though it seems like they should when they first move.

It's just not realistic to assume that everyone will magically play their best, and it's hard to know if someone can even still play their best if they haven't been doing it recently.

Yes, players will perform definitely on different teams with different linemates. Sometimes they will play better, the same, or the worse. But in this scenario where literally every player--save a spare few--would be playing with new players, it's crazy to assume that all of them will be better.

What I'm saying is that we have so, so, so many impossible-to-know variables with how these players might perform together that it's just not productive to think like that. Instead, we should look at we do know, which is this season for this season's playoffs.

Evidence is better than conjecture.

P.S. Your Ryan Strome stats are bunk.

I agree, except I'm not assuming their 'best', more of a career average. Skinner's hit 63 points 3 separate times in his career. Is it not realistic to consider him a ~50 point player in this game? I think it's more unrealistic to think that he repeats a career-low year, especially playing with McDavid. I mean, he's 27 years old, that's a bit early to begin regressing, especially when he's a year removed from a career year.

 

[Panda Bear]

This seems highly questionable.

It may be an extreme example, but I'm fairly certain a majority of hockey folks would rather have Joe Pavelski (who's having a miserable year) than Ryan Strome (who's having a career year) for a 2020 playoff run. That would be almost entirely based on previous seasons' results. I'm sure you can find more examples as well.

Bandwagon fallacy.

 

[Panda Bear]

I agree, except I'm not assuming their 'best', more of a career average. Skinner's hit 63 points 3 separate times in his career. Is it not realistic to consider him a ~50 point player in this game? I think it's more unrealistic to think that he repeats a career-low year, especially playing with McDavid. I mean, he's 27 years old, that's a bit early to begin regressing, especially when he's a year removed from a career year.

I guess this is where I start to get confused about this kind of fantasy draft.

Usually when you do a playoff draft in a hockey pool, you have to balance how good the player is against how far you think the team will go. So you could (theoretically) have a first line of Panarin - McDavid - Pastrnak, but their performance is independent of each other.

So when I think about Jeff Skinner for 2020 playoffs, do I presume Jeff Skinner will perform as he would in Buffalo? If I imagine a Jeff Skinner with McDavid, yeah, I can see him playing better...but I also know that in the last fifteen or so games of the season, he was playing a lot with Eichel and Reinhart but only put up like 4 points with them. So how do I reasonably interpret his hypothetical situation when in actuality he's not been producing with two other good players (one of whom is a top ten player)?

 

[Panda Bear]

St Louis @BumDum

Player	PandaRank	Sum of PPG*82	Average of GF%	Average of DFF%	Sum of relDFF%	Average of CF%	Sum of relCF%	Average of CTOI%	Average of PDO	PandaScore
Brad Marchand	3	102	64.9	56.1	6	55.9	7.3	39.2	1032	248.0
Sean Couturier	43	70	61.4	54.2	5.5	56.0	7.1	36.5	1056	205.0
Kyle Palmieri	85	57	52.2	52.3	6.8	47.6	2.5	35.0	999	188.0
Nico Hischier	143	51	44.8	48.3	1	47.8	1.3	39.4	1003	174.0
Timo Meier	144	57	41.5	50.5	2.1	52.5	2.8	28.6	979	174.0
Colton Parayko	224	36	55.8	48.7	-2	49.4	-1.5	37.7	1037	161.0
Marcus Johansson	280	41	46.9	48.1	0.2	47.3	-1.8	29.6	1002	155.0
Sami Vatanen	281	40	41.1	46.1	-2.29	47.8	-0.1	35.2	985	155.0
Adrian Kempe	292	38	39.6	52.9	1.8	55.0	2.4	24.8	955	154.0
Martin Necas	297	46	47.5	49.1	-5.4	52.1	-3.6	22.3	994	153.0
Ryan McDonagh	323	20	54.0	50.4	-1.6	50.2	-2.5	33.8	987	148.0
Will Butcher	337	31	44.0	48.3	2.5	45.8	-0.2	22.5	923	147.0
Grand Total	204	589	49.5	50.4	14.61	50.6	13.7	32.1	996	171.8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Llamamoto]

I guess this is where I start to get confused about this kind of fantasy draft.

Usually when you do a playoff draft in a hockey pool, you have to balance how good the player is against how far you think the team will go. So you could (theoretically) have a first line of Panarin - McDavid - Pastrnak, but their performance is independent of each other.

So when I think about Jeff Skinner for 2020 playoffs, do I presume Jeff Skinner will perform as he would in Buffalo? If I imagine a Jeff Skinner with McDavid, yeah, I can see him playing better...but I also know that in the last fifteen or so games of the season, he was playing a lot with Eichel and Reinhart but only put up like 4 points with them. So how do I reasonably interpret his hypothetical situation when in actuality he's not been producing with two other good players (one of whom is a top ten player)?

That's a fair point, and I guess that's up to you to decide. My point is basically that Skinner's career average is quite a bit better than his performance this season and given his age he shouldn't regress already, so he should rebound. (Again, up to you when voting, but that's just my opinion).

BTW, if it isn't too much work for you, I'd love for you to analyze my team.

 

[LT]

Bandwagon fallacy.

You're missing my point.

 

[Panda Bear]

Colorado @Llamamoto49

Connor has an enormous PDO. Were it like last season or the season before that, he'd be ranked #2 (behind Kuch) and #1.

EDIT: In fact, I'd argue that players like Connor break statistics because they're so good that things like their on-ice shooting percentage should be higher than normal. Outliers.

Player	PandaRank	Sum of PPG*82	Average of GF%	Average of DFF%	Sum of relDFF%	Average of CF%	Sum of relCF%	Average of CTOI%	Average of PDO	PandaScore
Connor McDavid	12	124	51.3	49.6	-0.1	47.5	-0.4	36.6	1072	234.0
Teuvo Teravainen	17	76	58.8	55.6	3.7	57.7	4.5	39.9	996	224.0
Matt Duchene	124	52	54.7	54.3	5.6	54.6	5.09	26.1	1008	179.0
Jonathan Drouin	169	46	44.8	50.7	-4.09	52.1	-1.6	35.1	958	171.0
Jared Spurgeon	190	42	57.1	56.7	4.9	53.2	5	29.2	1056	167.0
Samuel Girard	192	40	56.8	52.3	1.9	51.8	0.2	34.5	1042	167.0
Dominik Kahun	218	45	56.9	49.5	-3.54	50.2	-1.21	25.4	1014	163.0
Dmitry Orlov	235	32	49.6	53.6	4.2	53.4	2.9	30.7	990	160.0
Jeff Skinner	331	32	43.1	49.5	1	49.6		28.6	974	147.0
Danton Heinen	371	32	55.0	50.7	-0.5	48.0	-3.4	23.8	1038	143.0
Ryan Dzingel	382	37	51.9	47.7	-6.9	50.0	-5.9	23.7	1032	142.0
Kirby Dach	447	29	53.2	47.4	-0.1	48.3	-0.3	25.8	1074	136.0
Brian Boyle	460	32	43.9	43.5	-4.4	42.8	-7.3	26.9	976	135.0
Nick Leddy	464	29	47.6	45.7	-6	44.6	-3.4	28.4	1020	134.0
Grand Total	258	648	51.8	50.5	-4.33	50.3	-5.82	29.6	1017.857143	164.4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[LT]

I'd like to see mine too, if it isn't too much work

 

[belair]

Bandwagon fallacy.

He's not wrong though. You're going to have a tough time convincing people a team with Ryan Strome as its top line center is a competitive hockey team. There is the valid argument that this is a line in real life that has shown to be productive, but the sample size is incredibly small. You also don't have Mika Zibanejad going gangbusters on another line, so more often than not teams are keying in on Panarin's line.

In the end, everyone's going to have their opinion of whether or not your (or anyone else's) lines 'work' or not. Bias will come into play and some people will use their own interpretation of valid stats to determine whether or not these teams are competitive. I'll just downplay the validity of the types of stats you're presenting here because--you're right--it'd be exhausting factoring in all available context to present a truly accurate analysis of each roster.

 

[Panda Bear]

You're missing my point.

Not really.

It is very likely that, today, Ryan Strome is a better player than Joe Pavelski but isn't being recognized for it because of the difference in their reputations, which linger on longer than a player's actual abilities. Picking Pavelski over Strome is, in my opinion, a function of everyone having agreed for such a long time that Pavelski is better than Strome even though he isn't anymore.

 

[LT]

Not really.

It is very likely that, today, Ryan Strome is a better player than Joe Pavelski but isn't being recognized for it because of the difference in their reputations, which linger on longer than a player's actual abilities. Picking Pavelski over Strome is, in my opinion, a function of everyone having agreed for such a long time that Pavelski is better than Strome even though he isn't anymore.

If it's sunny for a week and then rains today, would you expect rain tomorrow as well?

 

[Panda Bear]

Tampa Bay @LatvianTwist

Player	PandaRank	Sum of PPG*82	Average of GF%	Average of DFF%	Sum of relDFF%	Average of CF%	Sum of relCF%	Average of CTOI%	Average of PDO	PandaScore
Nikita Kucherov	7	103	66.3	56.1	5.3	54.8	3.8	30.9	1038	239.0
Ryan Ellis	58	64	61.7	55.6	7.9	53.6	2.9	33.6	1048	198.0
Dylan Larkin	70	61	49.5	50.4	8	50.3	6.5	36.4	991	195.0
Dominik Kubalik	142	55	51.6	50.7	4.59	50.2	2.5	32.4	1047	174.0
Ryan Suter	151	57	50.8	52.8	-0.7	50.4	1.3	28.3	1032	172.0
Robert Thomas	183	52	61.4	52.2	1.3	51.2	0.1	22.4	1059	168.0
Alex Goligoski	234	37	53.0	48.2	-0.59	49.1	1.1	32.9	1016	160.0
Viktor Arvidsson	257	40	53.8	49.1	-1.5	51.5	0.9	29.1	1034	157.0
Denis Gurianov	284	37	57.1	52.7	0.7	49.3	-0.1	25.5	1045	154.0
Mattias Janmark	333	28	41.5	54.5	3.5	51.3	2.1	26.4	957	147.0
Barclay Goodrow	335	30	41.5	47.1	-2.02	50.9	0.57	29.9	955	147.0
Markus Nutivaara	389	20	54.8	50.0	-1.5	49.4	0.1	23.2	966	142.0
Alex Tuch	424	33	38.5	50.1	-6.5	52.4	-3.7	23.3	948	139.0
Grand Total	221	618	52.4	51.5	18.48	51.1	18.07	28.8	1010.461538	168.6

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Panda Bear]

If it's sunny for a week and then rains today, would you expect rain tomorrow as well?

Do I get to see meteorological data?

 

[LT]

Tampa Bay @LatvianTwist

Player	PandaRank	Sum of PPG*82	Average of GF%	Average of DFF%	Sum of relDFF%	Average of CF%	Sum of relCF%	Average of CTOI%	Average of PDO	PandaScore
Nikita Kucherov	7	103	66.3	56.1	5.3	54.8	3.8	30.9	1038	239.0
Ryan Ellis	58	64	61.7	55.6	7.9	53.6	2.9	33.6	1048	198.0
Dylan Larkin	70	61	49.5	50.4	8	50.3	6.5	36.4	991	195.0
Dominik Kubalik	142	55	51.6	50.7	4.59	50.2	2.5	32.4	1047	174.0
Ryan Suter	151	57	50.8	52.8	-0.7	50.4	1.3	28.3	1032	172.0
Robert Thomas	183	52	61.4	52.2	1.3	51.2	0.1	22.4	1059	168.0
Alex Goligoski	234	37	53.0	48.2	-0.59	49.1	1.1	32.9	1016	160.0
Viktor Arvidsson	257	40	53.8	49.1	-1.5	51.5	0.9	29.1	1034	157.0
Denis Gurianov	284	37	57.1	52.7	0.7	49.3	-0.1	25.5	1045	154.0
Mattias Janmark	333	28	41.5	54.5	3.5	51.3	2.1	26.4	957	147.0
Barclay Goodrow	335	30	41.5	47.1	-2.02	50.9	0.57	29.9	955	147.0
Markus Nutivaara	389	20	54.8	50.0	-1.5	49.4	0.1	23.2	966	142.0
Alex Tuch	424	33	38.5	50.1	-6.5	52.4	-3.7	23.3	948	139.0
Grand Total	221	618	52.4	51.5	18.48	51.1	18.07	28.8	1010.461538	168.6

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Thanks! Gurianov isn't on my team, though. I think you have him and Little swapped. I don't need to see the update, just thought I'd let you know for your spreadsheet.

 

[Paralyzer008]

Blues - I'll do this differently

Line 1 - Marchand-Couturier-Palmieri - this line is lethal from a two-way perspective. Couturier will win a ton of face-offs and ranks in the top 5 among centres defensively. This line will control play most of the time. Juggernaut. Marchand dominates both ways (just make sure he line changes). Palmieri will be a good consistent finisher here. I'll make a point about it though for line 2...

Line 2 - Kempe-Hischier-Meier - Adrian Kempe is emerging as a good speedy defensive two-way guy, he played with garbage a lot in LA but he did have bouts of inconsistency and due to that he's ideally more of a 3LW. Hischier will likely enjoy the help that Couturier gives him of not getting the elite competition or pressure felt in NJ. I'd be tempted to switch Meier around with Palmieri to give Nico familiar territory AND because Meier's rates could make line 1 even more of a juggernaut if switched with Palmieri. Flipside? Meier could be a big help for Hischier to give a more balanced approach. It's a good problem to have. Meier's GF stats look grizzly because of a sleepy first half but he was turning it up for the last bit and anyone that saw last year's playoffs knows he can dominate. This line has potential.

Line 3 - Johansson-Necas-Byron - Johansson is an alright player, I had him as a 3C coming in but more on the offensive side. You'd be hoping for him to be like his Boston playoff performance, the concussions have slowed him down and it shows with worse numbers since leaving WSH. Martin Necas showed tons of promise and while there's still issues to be ironed out consistency-wise, he's a talented young player. Keep in mind Necas was HORRIBLE at face-offs and Carolina ended up using him on wing a lot, you may want to swap him with Johansson. Necas posted around a 39 FA/60 although his 5v5 Corsi was quite low relative to Carolina's high possession guys. I usually like Byron a lot defensively, he uses his speed effectively on the PK and always has solid FA/60 rates.

Line 4 - Derek Ryan I had ranked as a 3C, he regressed this year defensively but overall he's smart and usually has a sub-40 FA/60 number with good GF%.

D1: - McDonagh-Parayko - this is a really solid shutdown pairing, both guys block shots and use their body wisely to fend off plays to the outside. Both have a FA/60 this year of 40 or under. I wouldn't count on either guy to drive a breakout attack or generate big offense but Parayko has shown an elevated ability to do so in the past.

D2: - Butcher-Vatanen - Will Butcher really struggled this year, and that was with 3rd pairing minutes in NJ. He has steadily regressed since his rookie year but his rookie numbers - and even some of his last year numbers - suggest he can drive play a lot better than he did this season. Vatanen's game has been heavily affected by injuries - he's been sub 50% GF for three straight years and 4 of the last 5. At best now he's average/mediocre. His possession numbers suggest he gets more caved in than he does make noise offensively, which is disappointing when his game is moving the puck. Both these guys contributed to NJ's poor D the last two years - there's some upside though with Butcher, I just don't love it.

G: Rinne. We touched on this earlier but his season this year is VERY WEIRD. Great 5v5 numbers and absolutely horrendous PK numbers. It might be a whole other article to determine why he was so bad on the PK, but obviously if that kept up you'd be toast. Based on his previous numbers being very good, you're hoping for a bounceback if he shores that up.

Special teams: This may be your biggest crutch. The PP will be able to score with sharpshooters like Palmieri, Meier and Marchand, but may struggle a bit at having a blue-line threat. Vatanen has played those minutes before and would be an average option. Maybe this is where Butcher can go back to rookie numbers, but I'm not sure.

PK is one that has to be analyzed. For Rinne to have as much help as possible, you'll need a strong PK unit in front of him. Luckily, you have three PK guys who have marvelous all-around shot suppression numbers there (Marchand, Couturier, Parayko, Derek Ryan/Byron also have decent numbers there). The weird thing was Couturier/Parayko had mediocre GF% numbers there, but that could be a unit problem and I think both guys are more than capable. I think the pieces are there but it's up to your goalie.

TL/DR: First line rocks, 2nd line has promise, 3rd line is your average 3rd line with a bit of upside, D has pieces that can shutdown the fort but not a lot of possession driving with heavy questions for pairing 2. PP has snipers and playmakers but do they need a PP QB to rise? Team is quite good but the breakout ability is average at best and you'd hope that 2nd pair doesn't get caved defensively. I'd also be concerned that McDonagh + Parayko may be forced to play 23/24 mins a night plus if that 2nd pair struggles. Your team may live and die through the play of Pekka Rinne, who should be okay at 5v5 with potential for a rebound but needs his PK struggles to end quick.

 

[Llamamoto]

Blues - I'll do this differently

Line 1 - Marchand-Couturier-Palmieri - this line is lethal from a two-way perspective. Couturier will win a ton of face-offs and ranks in the top 5 among centres defensively. This line will control play most of the time. Juggernaut. Marchand dominates both ways (just make sure he line changes). Palmieri will be a good consistent finisher here. I'll make a point about it though for line 2...

Line 2 - Kempe-Hischier-Meier - Adrian Kempe is emerging as a good speedy defensive two-way guy, he played with garbage a lot in LA but he did have bouts of inconsistency and due to that he's ideally more of a 3LW. Hischier will likely enjoy the help that Couturier gives him of not getting the elite competition or pressure felt in NJ. I'd be tempted to switch Meier around with Palmieri to give Nico familiar territory AND because Meier's rates could make line 1 even more of a juggernaut if switched with Palmieri. Flipside? Meier could be a big help for Hischier to give a more balanced approach. It's a good problem to have. Meier's GF stats look grizzly because of a sleepy first half but he was turning it up for the last bit and anyone that saw last year's playoffs knows he can dominate. This line has potential.

Line 3 - Johansson-Necas-Byron - Johansson is an alright player, I had him as a 3C coming in but more on the offensive side. You'd be hoping for him to be like his Boston playoff performance, the concussions have slowed him down and it shows with worse numbers since leaving WSH. Martin Necas showed tons of promise and while there's still issues to be ironed out consistency-wise, he's a talented young player. Keep in mind Necas was HORRIBLE at face-offs and Carolina ended up using him on wing a lot, you may want to swap him with Johansson. Necas posted around a 39 FA/60 although his 5v5 Corsi was quite low relative to Carolina's high possession guys. I usually like Byron a lot defensively, he uses his speed effectively on the PK and always has solid FA/60 rates.

Line 4 - Derek Ryan I had ranked as a 3C, he regressed this year defensively but overall he's smart and usually has a sub-40 FA/60 number with good GF%.

D1: - McDonagh-Parayko - this is a really solid shutdown pairing, both guys block shots and use their body wisely to fend off plays to the outside. Both have a FA/60 this year of 40 or under. I wouldn't count on either guy to drive a breakout attack or generate big offense but Parayko has shown an elevated ability to do so in the past.

D2: - Butcher-Vatanen - Will Butcher really struggled this year, and that was with 3rd pairing minutes in NJ. He has steadily regressed since his rookie year but his rookie numbers - and even some of his last year numbers - suggest he can drive play a lot better than he did this season. Vatanen's game has been heavily affected by injuries - he's been sub 50% GF for three straight years and 4 of the last 5. At best now he's average/mediocre. His possession numbers suggest he gets more caved in than he does make noise offensively, which is disappointing when his game is moving the puck. Both these guys contributed to NJ's poor D the last two years.

G: Rinne. We touched on this earlier but his season this year is VERY WEIRD. Great 5v5 numbers and absolutely horrendous PK numbers. It might be a whole other article to determine why he was so bad on the PK, but obviously if that kept up you'd be toast. Based on his previous numbers being very good, you're hoping for a bounceback if he shores that up.

Special teams: This may be your biggest crutch. The PP will be able to score with sharpshooters like Palmieri, Meier and Marchand, but may struggle a bit at having a blue-line threat. Vatanen has played those minutes before and would be an average option.

PK is one that has to be analyzed. For Rinne to have as much help as possible, you'll need a strong PK unit in front of him. Luckily, you have three PK guys who have marvelous all-around shot suppression numbers there (Marchand, Couturier, Parayko, Derek Ryan/Byron also have decent numbers there). The weird thing was Couturier/Parayko had mediocre GF% numbers there, but that could be a unit problem and I think both guys are more than capable. I think the pieces are there but it's up to your goalie.

TL/DR: First line rocks, 2nd line has promise, 3rd line is your average 3rd line with a bit of upside, D has pieces that can shutdown the fort but not a lot of possession driving with heavy questions for pairing 2. PP has snipers and playmakers but do they need a PP QB to rise? Team is quite good but the breakout ability is average at best and you'd that 2nd pair to not get caved defensively. I'd also be concerned that McDonagh + Parayko may be forced to play 23/24 mins a night plus if that 2nd pair struggles. Your team may live and die through the play of Pekka Rinne, who should be okay at 5v5 with potential for a rebound but needs his PK struggles to end quick.

Wow, that's some in-depth analysis. If you wanted to take the time to do my team (Colorado) I would really appreciate it. (If it isn't too much work, that looks like it took a lot of effort).