Fantasy Mock p3

Discussion in 'GM Games and HF Leagues' started by Joey Moss, May 2, 2020.

  1. Joey Moss Registered User

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    Trades
    -Can trade picks/players as long as everyone has 20 players at the end of the draft
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    Anaheim - Gibby
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  2. Joey Moss Registered User

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    3 threads for a GM game damn
     
  3. Joey Moss Registered User

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    Also only 5 people have messaged me which teams they would like for next GM game so make sure to do that if you want in it'll be first come first serve for teams.

    Fantasy Mock Draft (Categories Edition)
     
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  4. Makaveli Registered User

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    Wow that last one got filled up fast
     
  5. AveryStar4Eva Registered User

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    149 picks until my last pick and only 46 players on my list. Last couple picks are gonna be rough. Think my 4th line is going to be a 8 minutes a night group :laugh:
     
  6. Paralyzer008 Registered User

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    Last stat thing I'll do for a while - and I don't want to spoil potential targets:

    I like to use FA/60 to show us who is best at minimizing chances - combine this with GF% to roughly see who has been pretty good defensively this year - mind you I'm NOT going to separate for quality of competition (before I get attacked by a panda).

    Top 10 Cs in FA/60 with a GF% of at LEAST 51.5:
    1. Ryan O'Reilly
    2. NOT TAKEN YET
    3. Patrice Bergeron
    4. Sean Couturier
    5. NOT TAKEN YET
    6. NOT TAKEN YET
    7. Brayden Schenn
    8. Casey Cizikas
    9. Phillip Danault
    10. Robert Thomas

    Let's see who takes the last three...
     
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  7. hockeynorth Registered User

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    I believe I know who number 2 is
     
  8. Horse McHindu They call me Horse.....

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    Hi Joey,

    I think I’ll have to pass as far as the next draft game goes as I’m falling behind on some projects. Best of luck with the next draft game!
     
    Joey Moss likes this.
  9. Blinny Registered User

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    It seems super fun, but also incredibly time consuming
     
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  10. Panda Bear Registered User

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    Quality of competition aside, I'd argue that it doesn't matter how good you are at minimizing chances if you're even worse at generating them.
     
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  11. belair Registered User

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    It depends what your job is.
     
  12. Panda Bear Registered User

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    Maybe if all your line does is hold it against the boards so your other forwards can rest.
     
  13. Panda Bear Registered User

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    lemme know if you wanna see yours

    kreider is now my only due with -relDFF% and is one of two guys who are sub 50 CF. he is, however, a beast.

    PlayerPandaRankSum of PPG*82Average of GF%Average of DFF%Sum of relDFF%Average of CF%Sum of relCF%Average of CTOI%Average of PDOPandaScore
    Artemi Panarin411365.552.7750.35.637.11063246.0
    Phillip Danault235460.259.37.459.3746.2977219.0
    Ryan Strome336961.153.47.449.13.337.81014211.0
    Chris Kreider785960.547.0-148.73.634.71016190.0
    Jaccob Slavin884358.755.94.855.71.939.41008187.0
    Pavel Buchnevich1065555.752.76.151.15.936.11058183.0
    Valeri Nichushkin1353471.457.07.455.95.329.31050176.0
    MacKenzie Weegar1773353.254.97.653.44.434.3996169.0
    Kevin Shattenkirk1894064.055.7553.31.627.61067167.0
    Lars Eller2004651.453.12.755.85.728.91049165.0
    Matt Calvert2034159.554.34.354.13.129.81077164.0
    Rocco Grimaldi2053958.151.71.651.30.728.91020164.0
    Marco Scandella2951761.953.42.752.51.1832.41017153.0
    Grand Total13464360.153.96353.149.2834.01032184.2
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2020
  14. Panda Bear Registered User

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    i'm also pretty sure that pearson + niskanen for kreider + this next pick was a bad trade but hey :)
     
  15. Horse McHindu They call me Horse.....

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    sure, I’d like to see mine, but I’m not sure how much of it I’ll be able to comprehend. You might need to explain a few key points for me if that’s ok.
     
  16. belair Registered User

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    Nice pick with Matt Roy. I was going back and forth between him and Stecher. He had a really good year in LA, which would've been tough to do.
     
  17. Panda Bear Registered User

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    all data is scraped from WoodMoney's puckIQ on the "elite competition" filter

    GF% is goals for percentage when player is on ice
    DFF% is Dangerous Fenwick For ratio, which takes into account shot type and distance when qualifying "dangerous"
    CF% is Corsi For percentage
    rel% is the difference between how the team performs when the player is on the ice versus off it, so a positive number means the team has a better percentage without them
    CTOI% is the average time on ice against elite competition

    PlayerPandaRankSum of PPG*82Average of GF%Average of DFF%Sum of relDFF%Average of CF%Sum of relCF%Average of CTOI%Sum of PDOPandaScore
    John Carlson368951.750.1-1.751.4-0.435.21030209.0
    Mark Scheifele398451.144.11.247.7-1.339.71018208.0
    Nikolaj Ehlers546756.346.84.953.77.332.3998200.0
    Tyler Toffoli1075354.756.25.5956.84.9531.81032183.0
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau1165147.650.71.7647.4-1.1142.4998181.0
    Marcus Foligno1563558.257.55.752.13.132.61005172.0
    Brian Dumoulin1862356.958.44.0956.84.941.71022168.0
    Kasperi Kapanen2614346.648.5-4.252.0-0.127.6987157.0
    Matt Roy2902157.155.25.656.04.325.2984154.0
    James Neal3004641.848.5-0.149.84.0931.61051152.0
    Brady Skjei3042943.648.1-1.5647.7-0.2531.3934152.0
    Jeff Carter3213738.351.0-1.753.0-1.330.1975149.0
    Scott Mayfield4741650.748.7-0.247.11.230.51026132.0
    Grand Total20359550.451.119.3851.725.3833.213060170.5
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2020
  18. Horse McHindu They call me Horse.....

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    Thanks man. That’s one of the things that really blew me away about Roy. His plus/minus on a horrible Kings team, along with the fact that he was playing top 4. Seems like he’s a good skater and defensively responsible. He doesn’t have much offensive ability but that’s not too shabby for a 3rd pairing guy. He can play on a 2nd pairing and not look out of place at all.
     
  19. LT Global Moderator

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  20. Panda Bear Registered User

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    I also have a version with PDO adjusted for, but hey, I'm finite.
     
  21. Paralyzer008 Registered User

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    The thing with your top line is - Panarin is awesome, no denying that. Just using the 2019-20 regular season stats alone, you can see that as reflected in your table.

    However, Panarin/Strome's results are driven hard by their offensive zone results - extremely good rates at generating Fenwick in other team's zones. My concern would be that in the playoffs, as teams key on Panarin on that line in a tighter checking environment, that there would be more pressure on Strome to carry a load. Strome has a PDO of almost 104, something he's never come close to in his career. Their line doesn't really limit chances against either - they both come around 45 FA/60 overall.

    It's working in the regular season, but I am skeptical Strome can continue that pace. His 1 point in his last 7 games (and 4 in the last 9) make me wonder if he was starting to slow down as March hit and the NYR got into some tougher games.

    My team has loads of problems, but I wanted to challenge you a bit. We're already differing of opinion for the roster voting because I'm basing it on more than just this season's stats.
     
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  22. Horse McHindu They call me Horse.....

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    Hey Paralyzer,

    do you mind giving a quick analysis of my team? Would be interested to hear your thoughts.
     
  23. Panda Bear Registered User

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    All fair and reasonable.

    Even adjusting for PDO, Strome ranks well on the season.

    I can argue that since we are trying to win the (hypothetical) 2020 Playoffs, data from previous seasons are irrelevant. While there isn't a perfect correlation between regular season scoring and playoff scoring, it is that regular season that informs exactly how well the player has been performing in the months before the playoffs begin.

    "I think this player will rebound playing with so-and-so!" is a hypothetical that I don't buy for this. Almost every single line combination that we have in this draft is hypothetical. In real life, players are just as prone to flopping on a new team as they are to thriving. There are endless unknowns with trying to figure out how these players will do in these fantasy teams. So what can we do to in an attempt to control the unknown? Look at how the player has been doing over the current season, slot them in, and judge the team based on what little evidence we have.

    Were we to assemble rosters for 2020/21, then I would argue that previous seasons are far more important because we are projecting something where we have no current relevant data. :)
     
  24. BumDum Commander Thor

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    I'm surprised Derek Ryan was still available for my pick.

    @Paralyzer008 and/or @Panda Bear could you analyze my team as well? I'm the Blues.
     
  25. Panda Bear Registered User

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    When I get back to the laptop, sure.

    I'll update the previous tables to account for PDO, which will be featuring now on.
     

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