Fantasy GM Thread | Part 7

[canuckking1]

I guess you missed my point.

Hughes was trusted in those minutes because of his partner. Green didn't trust Myers to play minutes like that last year and Myers' coaches have been giving him sheltered minutes for a couple years now.

Quinn Hughes' zone starts didn't really change in the playoffs, at 5 on 5 he was at 65% and even though he looked good and had a defensively capable partner, he still was on for 13 for and 12 against.

Myers was on for 1 for and 5 against. He's not a defensive stalwart, and sure if they're going to get the massive offensive chances that will be good, but I think they're going to get taken advantage of defensively.

I've seen people show that tweet where Schmidt was in the 99th percentile for usage, but I haven't been able to find the methodology. Just looking at his usage, zone starts, partner, forward linemates, I think that 6th toughest usage is a bit of a head scratcher. would you mind sharing the link to it, and if it's athletic, explain in.

Nobody had that extreme of usage on Vegas' blueline. Even in the playoffs, no defensman on the Knights started in their o-zone less than 53% of the time. That's not extreme usage to me. Even against us in the playoffs, Schmidt was out against Bo more than Pettersson. Theodore's pair was out against Pettersson more than Schmidt.

Shea Theodore was probably the most sheltered Dmen in the league and as a result, NS had to carry a much bigger workload than he's used to. This article sums it up so it makes sense as Theodores minutes/role increase Schmidt's deployment difficulty would also increase. This article sums it up very well.

Breaking Down Shea Theodore's Offensive Impact
To compensate for keeping a 22-minute-a-night defenceman away from top lines, Brayden McNabb and Nate Schmidt are given the 4th and 6th toughest deployment in the NHL respectively. It’s why Theodore’s most frequent forward opponents this season were Tyler Ennis and Brayden Schenn and Schmidt’s were Leon Draisaitl and Anze Kopitar.

I never suggest Myers was a defensive stalwart just that Hughes/Myers pairing number would be skewed because the situations they played in were ones looking to generate offence when the Canucks were trailing. The two weren't much of a real pairing but more a situational one. I have more confidence in Hughes' possession abilities and zone exit to make up for Myers and his defensive deficiencies. It's more of a poison pill pairing than Tanev-Hughes but I'll take the play driving offensively and believe it'll make up for the defensive side of things.

 

[4Twenty]

Shea Theodore was probably the most sheltered Dmen in the league and as a result, NS had to carry a much bigger workload than he's used to. This article sums it up so it makes sense as Theodores minutes/role increase Schmidt's deployment difficulty would also increase. This article sums it up very well.



I never suggest Myers was a defensive stalwart just that Hughes/Myers pairing number would be skewed because the situations they played in were ones looking to generate offence when the Canucks were trailing. The two weren't much of a real pairing but more a situational one. I have more confidence in Hughes' possession abilities and zone exit to make up for Myers and his defensive deficiencies. It's more of a poison pill pairing than Tanev-Hughes but I'll take the play driving offensively and believe it'll make up for the defensive side of things.

Already found errors in that report. Tyler Ennis isn't the 2nd most frequent forward competition linemate. Not even close. I don't know Jfresh, but I'm already massively doubting their credibility. Theodore played 3 minutes more against Ennis than he did against McDavid.

Theodore's top 2 forwards opponents are 2/3 of St Louis' top line.

Theodore doesn't look that sheltered to me.

Anyways, I think Schmidt is good, not as good as that article or MS on this forum suggests, but I'm sure he'll be a nice addition, but I dont think the pairs set up particularly well and Hughes being this clubs Theodore and Myers not being as good defensively as Alec Martinez, sets up Schmidt to taking the extreme defensive role that Edler and Stecher played last season.

 

[canuckking1]

Already found errors in that report. Tyler Ennis isn't the 2nd most frequent forward competition linemate. Not even close. I don't know Jfresh, but I'm already massively doubting their credibility. Theodore played 3 minutes more against Ennis than he did against McDavid.

Theodore doesn't look that sheltered to me.

Anyways, I think Schmidt is good, not as good as that article or MS on this forum suggests, but I'm sure he'll be a nice addition, but I dont think the pairs set up particularly well and Hughes being this clubs Theodore and Myers not being as good defensively as Alec Martinez, sets up Schmidt to taking the extreme defensive role that Edler and Stecher played last season.

I think might be on a per-game basis? not really sure didn't take a deep look into the number and just took it at face value in the article. I don't think Martinez should be a factor. Similar to Toffoli he was a rental that played a slim amount of games.

 

[4Twenty]

I think might be on a per-game basis? not really sure didn't take a deep look into the number and just took it at face value in the article. I don't think Martinez should be a factor. Similar to Toffoli he was a rental that played a slim amount of games.

I'm not here to say that Theodore wasn't giving lots of offensive opportunities, that's what good offensive defensman get. I just have a hard time looking at all these numbers and determining that Schmidt played the 6th toughest minutes in the league.

I think some of the Schmidt stuff is just a bit too much. He looks like a solid 2nd pairing defensman who can play against good competition. This top pair extreme usage stuff, just seems like setting the expectations higher than they need to be.

 

[Canucks LB]

It’s still completely shocking to me we have this top six going into next season.

You just know Green is absolutely pissed

 

[Joyride]

If Ferland ends up on LITR then I’d love to see the Canucks go all in on the sweepstakes of good teams trying to use this money to land a guy like Hoffman who could really replace Toffoli’s scoring role quite nicely.

They would need more than $3.5, but it’s a nice start. If they waived all of their over paid bottom six guys like Roussell, Sutter, Baertchi, Beagle, Erickson and even Benn, none of whom have any chance of being list to another team picking up their cap, then replaced them with cheaper (but maybe better!) options you could have even more cap space to offer. Put Hogs on a young, low paid secondary scoring third line with Gaudette and Virtanen and with Hawryluk and MacEwen adding toughness to the fourth line with Motte, go with a roster of 20 or 21 and this along with the Ferland space could free up $5-6 M in total cap space to get a solid top six guy for Green to roll with along with his solid top 4 d!

 

[BB06]

Hoffman would have to battle it out with Boeser for top line and PP duties. I’d bet on Boeser winning that battle don’t think it’d even be smart of it for him to come here. Most options are looking bare outside of the bruins who will be missing Marchand/Pasta. If he goes to CBJ/Preds wouldn’t be surprised to see his number take a major hit.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

delete

 

[Canucks LB]

delete

Now I am curious lol

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Now I am curious lol

I was going to say "I wonder how he feels about his bottom 6.?"...but then gave it some thought, and figured, he probably likes them...lol..

 

[M2Beezy]

It’s still completely shocking to me we have this top six going into next season.

You just know Green is absolutely pissed

Miller Pettersson Boeser
Pearson Horvat Eriksson

Then if one of the top line gets injured just inject Roussell into the top 6. For example if Miller gets hurt:

Eriksson Pettersson Boeser
Pearson Horvat Roussell

 

[BB06]

Canucks were first in the Div Feb 3 2020

Canucks were in a playoff spot January 2019.

Canucks always crash post all-star game as the team wears down. I think a shortened season will do wonders for them.

 

[canuckking1]

I'm not here to say that Theodore wasn't giving lots of offensive opportunities, that's what good offensive defensman get. I just have a hard time looking at all these numbers and determining that Schmidt played the 6th toughest minutes in the league.

I think some of the Schmidt stuff is just a bit too much. He looks like a solid 2nd pairing defensman who can play against good competition. This top pair extreme usage stuff, just seems like setting the expectations higher than they need to be.

Disagree that he’s not a top pairing Dmen. He leads the team with 2nd most playoff wins and constant playoff team over the past 3 seasons in ice time.

 

[biturbo19]

Still feels like if you send Sven to the minors, Ferland to the expected permanent LTIR...

Sign someone like Slater Koekkoek to a 1 or 2 year ~$1.1M sort of deal.

Grab a guy like Brett Lernout at an absolute minimum deal.

Gives you enough wiggle room to probably sign a guy like Athanasiou or Brassard to a 1-year prove-it deal in the $2M and change sort of range. It's not the ideal situation, and not the pieces you'd really want. But it might not be that bad.

Miller-Pettersson-Boeser
Pearson-Horvat-Athanasiou
Roussell-Gaudette-Virtanen
Motte-Beagle-Sutter

or

Miller-Pettersson-Boeser
Pearson-Horvat-Gaudette
Roussell-Brassard-Virtanen
Motte-Beagle-Sutter

*Eriksson, MacEwan (who would probably spend plenty of time playing).

Defensively:

Edler-Schmidt
Hughes-Myers
Benn-Koekkoek

*Lernout, with Rathbone and Juolevi and Chatfield and the rest easily available as callups if and when they're needed.

It could work. That Eriksson deal is just such a fly in the ointment. It's so bad, on a player who is barely even playable and worth an absolute minimum salary at this point. The rest, there's some bad deals there...but they can still at least play. That Eriksson thing just sucks up the cap number of an actually good potential Top-6 winger, or a solid depth defenceman. But a buyout is useless, and sending him down doesn't really do anything other than force them to sign another guy to sit in the press box who probably offsets any of the cap savings from burying him.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Canucks were first in the Div Feb 3 2020

Canucks were in a playoff spot January 2019.

Canucks always crash post all-star game as the team wears down. I think a shortened season will do wonders for them.

That's part of the reason. The other main reason is Markstrom and Tanev getting injured.

It's sink or swim time for Demko/Holtby. This season will be a great test and will show if Markstrom really was the team's life raft.

 

[Fatass]

Canucks were first in the Div Feb 3 2020

Canucks were in a playoff spot January 2019.

Canucks always crash post all-star game as the team wears down. I think a shortened season will do wonders for them.

I think the nasty travel we do hurts us after game 50. If there’s a Canadian division then all the teams will have nearly as nasty a travel schedule as us. Three in the east; three in the west; Winnipeg in the middle.

 

[VanillaCoke]

Short season is great for fatigue, but does nothing to mitigate the significant downgrades to defense and goaltending.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

D should be better overall. I think people are underestimating just how good Schmidt is. To me he looks similar to the JT Miller add the year before and he should significantly upgrade the D. And Hughes has a year under his belt and has already shown an ability to adjust his game. While I like Stecher I don’t think he’s a big loss. I also think there’s a reasonable chance that one of the three of Juolevi, Rathbone or Rafferty can step up to take his place.

Forward looks like a bit of downgrade right now with the loss of Toffoli who was however only available for limited games.

There’s no question in my mind that our goaltending takes a step back. It was probably unrealistic to expect last years goaltending even if we had kept Markstrom. With Demko and Holtby we almost certainly take a step back.

But the off-season is not over yet so I’ll reserve judgment. It’s likely that we add at least one more depth D and forward and possibly something more significant.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

D should be better overall. I think people are underestimating just how good Schmidt is. To me he looks similar to the JT Miller add the year before and he should significantly upgrade the D. And Hughes has a year under his belt and has already shown an ability to adjust his game. While I like Stecher I don’t think he’s a big loss. I also think there’s a reasonable chance that one of the three of Juolevi, Rathbone or Rafferty can step up to take his place.

Forward looks like a bit of downgrade right now with the loss of Toffoli who was however only available for limited games.

There’s no question in my mind that our goaltending takes a step back. It was probably unrealistic to expect last years goaltending even if we had kept Markstrom. With Demko and Holtby we almost certainly take a step back.

But the off-season is not over yet so I’ll reserve judgment. It’s likely that we add at least one more depth D and forward and possibly something more significant.

Even if you’re correct in basically saying Schmidt > Tanev (I don’t disagree), you still have to factor in Juolevi replacing Fantenberg and Benn replacing Stecher, and Edler and Myers being a year older. The depth looks worse at the outset but I’d be happy to be proven wrong.

 

[4Twenty]

D should be better overall. I think people are underestimating just how good Schmidt is. To me he looks similar to the JT Miller add the year before and he should significantly upgrade the D. And Hughes has a year under his belt and has already shown an ability to adjust his game. While I like Stecher I don’t think he’s a big loss. I also think there’s a reasonable chance that one of the three of Juolevi, Rathbone or Rafferty can step up to take his place.

Forward looks like a bit of downgrade right now with the loss of Toffoli who was however only available for limited games.

There’s no question in my mind that our goaltending takes a step back. It was probably unrealistic to expect last years goaltending even if we had kept Markstrom. With Demko and Holtby we almost certainly take a step back.

But the off-season is not over yet so I’ll reserve judgment. It’s likely that we add at least one more depth D and forward and possibly something more significant.

How is it likely they add something significant? Possible? Maybe, but not likely.

 

[BB06]

Interesting tidbit in this sports net article. Guess Benning was either willing to retain on someone or add a sweetener to make a move but after Toffoli left he didn't like any of the other forwards on the Market? Weird nitpick but why is all the media referring to Toff as a first line winger? he was a top 6 guy you could plug onto either line.

Roster Assessment: Did Canucks improve after eventful off-season?

After replacing Markstrom with Washington Capitals free agent Braden Holtby, it would have been difficult for the Canucks to afford both Toffoli and Schmidt, although Benning told Sportsnet this week that he was working on a deal to open up more cap space when the winger signed with the Canadiens on the fourth day of free agency.
Benning prioritized upgrading the top four on defence over maintaining his top six forwards. But it leaves Green one less weapon to work with when he returns next season for the final year of his contract.

 

[m9]

That deal to free up the space should have been wrapped up before free agency started so they could get Toffoli signed. But you know, that whole "pissing around for a month on OEL and being unable to multi-task" thing.

 

[BB06]

That deal to free up the space should have been wrapped up before free agency started so they could get Toffoli signed. But you know, that whole "pissing around for a month on OEL and being unable to multi-task" thing.

Gotta agree here. They put too many eggs in the OEL basket and when the deal never went through on Friday they were scrambling to make up ground on other matters.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

Not trying to sign Stecher after he wasn't qualified was a big mistake. I compiled the ES points per game, GA/60, and offensive zone starts of every team's number 5. Stecher had the 7th best ES points per game, 9th best GA/60 and 3rd least % of offensive zone starts. There were only 3 players that had better ES points, and GA/60 (Graves, Philippe Myers, and Matt Roy), and they all had over 50% ozone starts compare to Stecher's 39.3%.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Gotta agree here. They put too many eggs in the OEL basket and when the deal never went through on Friday they were scrambling to make up ground on other matters.

I don't know why they didn't just plan out multiple contingency plans. They have a whole staff with multiple experts. They had over a month after getting eliminated from the playoffs, and what, four months during the pandemic?