Matchup C:
Jonathan Drouin - Mark Scheifele - Brock Boeser
Warren Foegele - Eric Staal - T.J Oshie
Josh Leivo - Erik Haula - Joonas Donskoi
Jordan Martinook - Alex Turcotte - Morgan Geekie
Jaccob Slavin - Colton Parayko
Darnell Nurse - Jason Demers
Nikita Zadorov - Jordan Oesterle
Antti Raanta
Linus Ullmark
vs
Alexis Lafreniere (0.925) | Sidney Crosby (8.700) | Josh Anderson (5.500) |
Tyler Ennis (1.000) | Adam Henrique (5.825) | Vladimir Tarasenko (7.500) |
Jason Dickinson (1.500) | Charlie Coyle (5.250) | Jake Virtanen (2.550) |
Jujhar Khaira (1.300) | Mark Jankowski (0.700) | Colton Sceviour
(1.200) |
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Oliver Ekman-Larsson (8.250) | Jacob Trouba (8.000) |
Brayden McNabb (2.500) | Rasmus Ristolainen (5.400) |
Juuso Valimaki (0.894) | Trevor Van Riemsdyk (0.800) |
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Connor Hellebuyck (6.166) |
Malcom Subban (0.900) |
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My breakdown:
A LARGE portion of this matchup comes down to how you feel about Lafreniere next season. I don't think it's unreasonable to say Laf outperforms Boeser next year, and I can definitely see the Ottawa 1st line being stronger.
Next you have Ennis who's like a wash to Foegele, but Staal > Henrique. Unfortunately for Carolina Tarasenko crushes Oshie, but idk how well Henrique can feed Senko (though Henrique is like an O'Reilly lite). I do think you can confidently say Ottawas top 6 > Carolinas though.
Outside of Coyle, Carolinas 3rd line would definitely be strange than Ottawas though, and I think you can say the same for L4 since I believe Turcotte could be a 3C by next season.
The D is where it's interesting. I think there's no disputing Carolinas top pair > Ottawas, and same for D2. BUT Valimaki is the wild card. He could very well be a strong #4 next season, with that said, I think Carolina does take the D overall.
What made me pause is Hellebuyck. Accompanied by Crosby and co up front, is the gap between Hellebuyck (best goalie in the league and most likely to steal a series IMO) and Raanta enough to put Ottawa over top. I personally like OEL and Trouba, though not quite to the degree of Slavin/Parayko, but I do believe OEL/Trouba could be a very strong second pair. I thought long and hard about if Crosby + Hellebuyck could win out, and in a number of scenarios I think they do. Where I felt Ottawa was most lacking was a better playmaking C, or better winger for Tarasenko, OR a stronger #3D. I felt in either case, then yes, Hellebuyck + Crosby alone could get Ottawa through Carolina, but without that you have Slavin/Parayko shutting down Crosby, and Ristolainen/McNabb being a liability with Tarasenko on the second pair. I think Hellebuyck gets this to 6 or 7 games, but that ultimately Carolina was just more rounded and deeper, but that it COULD swing if Lafreniere ends up having a Matthews level 1st season, instead of a Hischier level.