Expansion draft thread

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RainyCityHockey

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Dec 24, 2019
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The Big Show Podcast with Elliotte Friedman
Starts at about the 4:00 minute mark.

Friedge:

- expects some side deals to be made

- says other GM's might say they're not doing the same mistakes like last time around but some could still do something similar thanks to the financial climate

- says Seattle might only take on the minimum required cap hit to use their cap space after the expansion draft
 

Lunatik

Registered User
Oct 12, 2012
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In other words some GMs just can't stop themselves from doing self defeating things.
In other words, teams tight to the cap may pay Seattle to take bad contracts, Eriksson out of Vancouver comes to mind as a possibility
 

Ice Mammoth

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Mar 14, 2021
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Show me one article where it's talked about Tampa's attempts to exchange, I think you mean trade, Killorn.

The expiration of a contract doesn't matter all that much, it's pretty insignificant if the player is useful. McDonagh is a 2D, would be a 1D still on a fee teams, we are trying to win now, we don't care about the 25/26 season right now. If Connor McDavid signs an 8 year deal for 15M a year his next contract and you know the last year he'll be only ECHL caliber but gives you 7 MVP seasons it's not a bad contract. Also not sure why you keep saying we need to clear 9.5M? We are only 3.5M over going into next season, clearing Johnson and signing ABB and Colton to 750k deals gets us cap compliant. We will need to move another contract to fill some gaps but we don't need an additional 6M, if we free up that much money it's to resign Savard, Coleman or Goodrow. Our cap situation isn't dire, we just want to move Johnson because he's slipped down the lineup not that he's a garbage player. He's not as good as he was a few years ago but still a middle 6 player.

Capfriendly - TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
2020-21
: FORWARDS $38,025,924 - DEFENSE $24,237,500 - GOALIES $10,800,000 = около $73,000,000
2021-22: FORWARDS $33,841,666 - DEFENSE $22,375,000 - GOALIES $9,500,000
LTIR:
Stamkos - $8,500,000
Kucherov - $9,500,000
FORWARDS:
Stamkos and Kucherov - should return in the new season + $ 18,000,000.
FORWARDS (21 - 22) - about $ 4,200,000 difference.
RFA: Barré-Boulet, Colton.
UFA: Coleman, Goodrow
About $ 4,200,000 for four seats. Stanley Cup challenger.
It will not work to save money without weakening the team.

RFA: Barré-Boulet, Colton - pay rise.
The balance for two players will be small.
DEFENSE:
DEFENSE (21 - 22) - about $ 1,800,000 difference.
UFA: Schenn, Savard
RFA: Foote (non-roster defense).
Approximately $ 1,800,000 for two seats. Stanley Cup challenger.
It will not work to save money without weakening the team.

Foote - increase in salary.
The remainder will be small.
GOALIES:
GOALIES (21 - 22) - about $ 1,300,000 difference
UFA: McElhinney
About $ 1,300,000 per seat. Stanley Cup challenger.
It will not work to save money without weakening the team.

Total: $ 73,000,000 + Stamkos and Kucherov + $ 18,000,000 = $ 91,000,000.
I ask you not to ask me why the Capfriendly PROJECTED CAP HIT: $ 98,794,780.
You can look at other lines yourself and subtract from this amount.
Or add up the amounts: FORWARDS + DEFENSE + GOALIES + Stamkos + Kucherov.
$ 91,000,000 - $ 81,500,000 = $ 9,500,000 = Kucherov - $ 9,500,000
Exceeding the 2020/21 salary cap = about $ 9,500,000.
Therefore, GM Tampa has added Kucherov to the LTIR roster since the start of the season.
It will not work to save money without weakening the team.
Therefore, Tampa needs to change at least two players.
The exchange of three players will give $ 5,000,000 - $ 7,000,000 of free money.
This will enable Tampa to:
Sign some good UFA players.
Increase your chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
Look on the internet for a bad contract.
Why The Athletic is looking to the future when ranking bad contracts.
Why so many others do it.
Why Mcdonagh's contract is rated D + (The Athletic). Johnson - C; Killorn - B
I can explain why I consider Mcdonagh to be the second candidate for the exchange.
It is necessary to cite many figures of extended statistics and forecasting. I'm too lazy to do this.
Just look Capfriendly (years UFA, RFA). I have indicated this in previous comments.
This data, the calculator and the Capfriendly website is enough.
My abilities have dried up.
I can't explain it more simply. :help::help::help:
Good luck to you. :)
 

RainyCityHockey

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In other words some GMs just can't stop themselves from doing self defeating things.

I wouldn't frame it that negatively.
It's more like teams trying to find ways to create cap space and therefore willing to move an asset or more.

In other words, teams tight to the cap may pay Seattle to take bad contracts, Eriksson out of Vancouver comes to mind as a possibility

I don't think Ericksson is a good example.
Looking at Cap Friendly this offseason's actually the one where they can buy him out at a pretty low Cap hit for two more years.
 
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Mike Jones

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Only reason you would take is if the Flames give up some big piece or pieces
Not beyond the realm of possibility. The Flames absolutely despise second and third round draft picks - I'm sure they'd be happy to send a pile Seattle's way if it gets Lucic off their hands.
 

Brodeur

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Feb 27, 2002
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Probably won't be much desirable from the Devils. My best guess at our protection list:

F(7): Hischier-Zacha-Bratt-Sharangovich-Wood-Kuokkanen-McLeod
D(3): Severson-Subban-Siegenthaler?
G(1): Blackwood
Exempt: Hughes-Boqvist-Maltsev-Smith
UFA: Murray-Carrick-Dell-Wedgewood
Available: Bastian-Johnsson-Merkley-Butcher +other AHL fodder

---------------

Nate Bastian - He's been a perfectly acceptable 4th line RW. Big body, throws his weight around, but not a ton of offense.

Andreas Johnsson - Scored 20 goals for Toronto a couple seasons ago but was a non-factor for us this season.

Nick Merkley - Cleared waivers, might be a AAAA player at this point. Productive in the AHL, but not quite skilled enough to hold down a permanent NHL gig.

Will Butcher - Found himself a healthy scratch most of this season, but has put up some offense (9 points in 19 games) with Subban sidelined. Put up 44 points a few seasons ago, but is a below average skater so he'd probably need to be in a particular 3rd pairing / PP specialist niche. One year left on his contract (3.733 mil cap hit, 4.1 mil salary), so could see Seattle passing on that.

Ryan Murray - Impending UFA, but perhaps Seattle would rather try to talk him into bypassing free agency than take anybody else from New Jersey. Murray played his junior hockey in Everett, so he'd have some loose ties to the area. Turns 28 in a few months, so he's still in his theoretical prime. Depending on his price tag, I wouldn't mind the Devils re-signing him but haven't heard any news on that front.
 

Lunatik

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Oct 12, 2012
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Yeah, we'd be better off taking an AHL guy or trying to convince one of their UFA/RFA guys to agree to a contract extension.
Josh Leivo could be an interesting target, he looked good in Calgary, took a little to get going after a long time off due to being injured before the covid shutdown and not being healthy for the return to play, then he was looking good but never really got a chance to play with consistent linemates and didn't seem to have much luck.
 

Mike Jones

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Apr 12, 2007
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Probably won't be much desirable from the Devils. My best guess at our protection list:

F(7): Hischier-Zacha-Bratt-Sharangovich-Wood-Kuokkanen-McLeod
D(3): Severson-Subban-Siegenthaler?
G(1): Blackwood
Exempt: Hughes-Boqvist-Maltsev-Smith
UFA: Murray-Carrick-Dell-Wedgewood
Available: Bastian-Johnsson-Merkley-Butcher +other AHL fodder

---------------

N
The Devils could leave Subban available gambling that Seattle wouldn't want his $9Million cap hit for next season.
 

Dog

Arf! Arf! Arf!
Feb 9, 2016
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Probably won't be much desirable from the Devils. My best guess at our protection list:

F(7): Hischier-Zacha-Bratt-Sharangovich-Wood-Kuokkanen-McLeod
D(3): Severson-Subban-Siegenthaler?
G(1): Blackwood
Exempt: Hughes-Boqvist-Maltsev-Smith
UFA: Murray-Carrick-Dell-Wedgewood
Available: Bastian-Johnsson-Merkley-Butcher +other AHL fodder

---------------

Nate Bastian - He's been a perfectly acceptable 4th line RW. Big body, throws his weight around, but not a ton of offense.

Andreas Johnsson - Scored 20 goals for Toronto a couple seasons ago but was a non-factor for us this season.

Nick Merkley - Cleared waivers, might be a AAAA player at this point. Productive in the AHL, but not quite skilled enough to hold down a permanent NHL gig.

Will Butcher - Found himself a healthy scratch most of this season, but has put up some offense (9 points in 19 games) with Subban sidelined. Put up 44 points a few seasons ago, but is a below average skater so he'd probably need to be in a particular 3rd pairing / PP specialist niche. One year left on his contract (3.733 mil cap hit, 4.1 mil salary), so could see Seattle passing on that.

Ryan Murray - Impending UFA, but perhaps Seattle would rather try to talk him into bypassing free agency than take anybody else from New Jersey. Murray played his junior hockey in Everett, so he'd have some loose ties to the area. Turns 28 in a few months, so he's still in his theoretical prime. Depending on his price tag, I wouldn't mind the Devils re-signing him but haven't heard any news on that front.
Andreas Johnson be my guess unless devil's add something for them to take Subban. AJ in new environment will bounce back.
 

Mike Jones

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That's within the realm of possibility, the sad thing is that we don't really have a slam dunk third D to protect if we were to expose Subban.
The Devs could trade for one couldn't they? They could probably get someone cheap from a team with too many defensemen who need protecting.
 

QuizGuy66

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Sep 12, 2011
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Dream Devils scenario is working out something for Dumba that makes the net loss of (Dumba plus player Minnesota would lose in expansion draft) more palatable than just losing Dumba to Seattle (or more palatable than whatever ransom Seattle would want to not take Dumba).

If not Dumba perhaps a similar scenario with a different D-man on a team. That is the one way I can see both Subban and Butcher exposed.

I think the price for a team's unprotectable defenseman likely will be a little higher than these boards expect (remember the team trading away the defensemen still loses another guy to Seattle) but I think the Devils have the kind of assets to do it.

Does something like say pick 30, Boqvist (expansion exempt) and a middling AHL prospect land Dumba? Perhaps.
 

RainyCityHockey

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Dream Devils scenario is working out something for Dumba that makes the net loss of (Dumba plus player Minnesota would lose in expansion draft) more palatable than just losing Dumba to Seattle (or more palatable than whatever ransom Seattle would want to not take Dumba).

If not Dumba perhaps a similar scenario with a different D-man on a team. That is the one way I can see both Subban and Butcher exposed.

I think the price for a team's unprotectable defenseman likely will be a little higher than these boards expect (remember the team trading away the defensemen still loses another guy to Seattle) but I think the Devils have the kind of assets to do it.

Does something like say pick 30, Boqvist (expansion exempt) and a middling AHL prospect land Dumba? Perhaps.

Given that we want to fild a competitive team(best case) I doubt a package like that would be enough.
At least not before the trading deadline, assuming things don't go our way during the season and we're selling.


BTW: Another thought from Elliotte Friedman.
8. Interesting expansion-draft tidbit told to the Kraken: If they select anyone who has already been paid a July 1 bonus, they must re-pay it to the player’s previous team. Something else to calculate in your mock drafts.
 
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QuizGuy66

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Totally spitballing on the compensation Dumba could get. There is a sweet spot there - Minnesota is losing something the game is figuring out what the best case alternate loss is - will be interesting to see how GMs navigate these situations. I don't expect anyone to go full 2017 Panther panic.
 

QuizGuy66

Registered User
Sep 12, 2011
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Glad I am finally seeing what I feel are realistic projections for Devils list.

Barring trades and assuming at least one of Merkley or Bastian gets signed prior to expansion draft I think it goes:

Fwd: Hischier, Bratt, Zacha, Sharangovich, Kuokkonen, McLeod, Wood

Def: Severson, Siegenthaler, Subban

G: Blackwood

I think Johnsson or Butcher may be attractive enough to spare the best younger options (Merkley/Bastian).

If for some reason we don't get Bastian or Merkley re-upped in time then Wood is the most likely guy they'd have to be exposed.
 

LucicAndChong

formerly known as Big Sugar
Jan 22, 2018
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kraken team.JPG


This is my idea for the Kraken draft. It may look a little weird so let me explain cause with the limitations of CapFriendly I wasn't able to show some of my moves for after players are picked.

So all of the players that are in the "scratches" category are being traded OR sent down to the AHL if possible (Adin Hill and Gambrell)

Tanev will be traded to whatever team wants him for the highest draft pick that we can get, same with Allen. Subban is retained at 50% and traded to someone who will want him. I assume at 50% retained he at least has SOME value to a team. We also get a pick/prospect from the Devils for taking Subbans contract (not sure what it would be)

For Taxi Squad, players like Panik, Robinson and Martin are all actual Taxi Squad members, cause they may play some games, but not all. For Dermott and Blackwell, they will get the chance to compete for a solid spot on the team. If they don't make the cut, they are also traded for actual taxi squad level players + picks or something of the like.

I think that out of all the other proposals ive seen, I have made one of the best possible offensive teams. It may not look like much, but I think that this team could still kick some butt and who knows, maybe make the playoffs

Let me know what you guys think

*EDIT just noticed I have Pearson on both the 1st and 2nd PP, it is supposed to be McCann on the 2nd PP in Pearsons spot
 

Brodeur

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Doubting New Jersey would pay to dump Subban's contract at this point. We have plenty of cap space and I don't figure we'll be big players in free agency.
 

Mike Jones

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Apr 12, 2007
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Doubting New Jersey would pay to dump Subban's contract at this point. We have plenty of cap space and I don't figure we'll be big players in free agency.
I agree. The Devils should make him available because I don't think he'd be claimed - unless Seattle is planning on claiming a bunch of cheap guys and need someone to help reach their cap floor.
 

kovacro

Uvijek Vjerni
Nov 20, 2008
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First off, these are fun to look at/project. A few observations without seeing who was protected in the above projection...

I think the Sabres will protect Bjork, they like him and apparently have previously tried to acquire him.

Kings may find a way to hold onto Moore. He he's had a good year for them and I think he fills one of their middle 6 boxes going forward.

Pens will find a way to protect McCann and likely Bleuger. Zucker and/or Tanev would be exposed over him.

I'm not sure Seattle wants to have over $72 million in cap space post expansion draft. I can see them taking on a few "bad contracts" if they can work out side deals but, one would figure they want flexibility going forward toward the draft, free agency and their 1st season.

Here's one I did. Had some fun projecting who teams would protect based on some comments from the boards. This provides Seattle with plenty of flexibility should they wish to be active post draft. I didn't draft this club with any side deals in mind. In reality, I will probably get 3 out of the 30 selections correct. :laugh:

upload_2021-5-7_13-15-9.png
 
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RainyCityHockey

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Here's how the NHL and Kraken plan to showcase the expansion draft

- the team wants to hold it outside with with two stages and seating areas for fans.
- they want to have five to ten locations in Seattle including Space Needle, Pike Place Market etc and the market including Oregon and Alaska.
- wants it to be breadcasted on TV(ROOT, National TV and Local TV stations) and via stream while switching in between locations
- broadcast is supposed to last between 60 to 90 minutes
- Ron Francis would be in main set announcing (most)expansion draft picks
- additionally local figures and celebrities would also announced picks or trades
- music acts are also said to be included
- the main location has been chosen, but still in talks with city/authorities, but won't be Seattle center
- the NHL hopes to fly about five players to Seattle to be in town while being picked
 
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