Speculation: Expansion Draft Discussion

[Legionnaire11]

Shea Weber isn’t near as bad as Habs fans portray.

I find that's the case virtually all over HF. Once a fanbase tires of a player, they suddenly become the worst player in the league, can't skate, can't shoot, detrimental to the team... But they're generally still playable, maybe they just need a change of scenery, a different coach, linemates, more time to recover from an injury, any number of things.

Players are almost never as good or bad as HF says, and this is still the best place to get as close to the truth and level headed analysis online.

 

[Legionnaire11]

As for the expansion draft. I think it's been mentioned here now, but with the influx of youth and their performance, I'm much less worried about who we lose and how it impacts us. I mean, it's going to suck no matter who it is, but I don't think it will hurt on the ice as much as I did a few months ago.

So I'm certain that I'd protect...
Forsberg
Johansen
Arvidsson
???

Josi
Ekholm
Ellis
Fabbro

Saros

Not sure on the 4th forward, I wish Duchene forced the issue here and played lights out but he hasn't. So I'm inclined to go with Kunin. Then you risk Duchene's feeling being hurt and him becoming a "locker room cancer", hopefully the situation is laid out and agreed upon with him. I mean, it would be great if Seattle were interested and took him, could be a good fit for both sides. But even if we protect Duchene and lose Carrier, Kunin, Jarnkrok or Sissons, it hurts but it's going to be okay. And i'd rather just lose a single good player than pay to have our choice and still lose 2 or more lesser assets in the process.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

One thing I don't know how much teams invest in... when a player is in a big down-turn like Duchene has been with us... what do they do about it? Internally, I mean... not "try to trade him" or "expose him to Seattle" or "buy him out".

I'm just thinking, the team invested like $56M in this player. That seems like a lot of money for the answer to just be... "let him work himself out of it" or "have the coaches shout at him frequently" or whatever. Or even "have the video coach sit down with him"... I assume they try all that already. What comes next?

Are there extra sports psychologists or extra fitness trainers or motivational gurus or something you can really be proactive about assigning to their case or something? It just seems to me if I was shelling out $56M for this guy, I'd really want to go beyond the usual hockey cliches in terms of trying to get him back to earning that money.

 

[Paranoid Android]

Gotta think Kunin is a somewhat of a lock to be protected. Otherwise why pay such a hefty price to get him only to then turn around and lose him a shortened season later? It’s not like he hasn’t lived up to expectations.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

I would rather they take somebody besides Kunin, but if that was our protection scheme, then I think it's a slam dunk they take Kunin. Like, it's not even close.

He's a 23-year old #15 overall pick, cheap salary, retainable for the long term... they absolutely would not even consider anybody else on our roster if Kunin was available to them. Kunin is younger than Trenin, Pitlick, and Jeannot, for example.

But since I think there is 0% chance they take Duchene, and a 99% chance that Poile knows there is a 0% chance that they take Duchene... I think it's no-brainer also that we expose Duchene and protect Kunin. Now, the Joey thing, I think that's more up in the air and I could see him still being protected even if that wouldn't be my call today. But Duchene... I am going to go out on a limb and have faith in Poile doing the right thing here. He seems to be open to acknowledging his past mistakes lately.

But the cool thing is, even if we did lose Kunin, it's not going to be a disaster. Even the worst-case outcome barely scratches us. So it's pretty comfy spot for us to be in.

Good point on years-of-control for each player. As much as I wouldn't want to lose Hook or even Grimaldi (I think his contribution is unrated this year), we're better off losing either of them versus Kunin, given our long term control of him. Sissons is different. At $2.8m for mucho years, he's borderline high on pay but been a horse this year and still hasn't peaked. If we go 4-4, and Joey/Forsberg/Arvy are locks, do you protect Sissons or Kunin?

 

[OldFan]

Shea Weber isn’t near as bad as Habs fans portray. i don’t like the length of course but his cap hit isn’t that bad. Habs fans have wanted to rebuild forever now and i would say quite honestly some of them are delusional by this point.

Weber has never been a great skater. He still knows where to be and everyone knows and respects when he is on the ice. He still has his shot.

I would take him over Ellis if it wasn’t for the length of the contract. Ellis’ game is easier to replace than Weber.

Duchene for weber. They wanted Duchene for 10 million before he signed with us (LOL). Then flip Ellis at the draft for a younger forward that could be as young as tolvanen or as “old” as Forsberg.

I hope no one equates the Montreal fan base to reality.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Good point on years-of-control for each player. As much as I wouldn't want to lose Hook or even Grimaldi (I think his contribution is unrated this year), we're better off losing either of them versus Kunin, given our long term control of him. Sissons is different. At $2.8m for mucho years, he's borderline high on pay but been a horse this year and still hasn't peaked. If we go 4-4, and Joey/Forsberg/Arvy are locks, do you protect Sissons or Kunin?

For sure Kunin.

They will have a lot of guys like Sissons exposed by a lot of teams. Not to say they would definitely not take him. They might and they might not. At that point you really have to get down to the nitty-gritty of all their other picks, they have 30 guys coming in, how many centers did they trade for, do they already have a gritty #3/4 center or 5 in the mix, does $2.857M for Sissons for 5 more years seem attractive or not relative to the price of the other players they are looking at in that category, would they be better off getting the versatility of Jarnkrok who can play on a 2nd line if push comes to shove, and then be cashed out for a draft pick at the Trade Deadline, or do they have enough room on their projected roster to pick instead a less polished player like Pitlick or Trenin, seeking a diamond in the rough, etc. At that point, I really would not guess who Seattle would take. It would all become complicated by all the other variables and their own player philosophies.

But if we left Kunin exposed it would make it very easy on them and they would simply just take Kunin.

 

[Armourboy]

Just depends on what they need. Centers are usually harder to come by, you have Sissons on a relatively inexpensive contract even if he is slightly overpaid. Wouldn't shock me at all if they took him over a guy like Kunin.

 

[Pred303]

to me what they choose is pretty simple. 4 and 4.

Forsberg,
Johansen,
Duchene,
Arvidsson

Josi,
Ekholm;
Ellis;
Fabbro

wish we could protect another forward, but with Hynes defensive philosophy, i don't see them exposing Ellis. I just think you have to give Duchene the benefit of the doubt here and i imagine Poile will. Would hate to lose Kunin or Sissons but they are more replaceable parts than any of these 8.

 

[Scoresberg]

Yeah, I'd say that 4th forward slot is still up for grabs. Joey has shown his worth during this stretch when the team has pulled itself from the dead to the playoff competition. Forsberg and Arvy are no-brainers as well as the top-four defense.

Kunin and Duchene will battle for that 4th spot. A lot depends on how Duchene looks when he returns.

 

[LCPreds]

The simple argument for not protecting Duchene is that Seattle is really not likely to take him. Why waste the spot?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

The simple argument for not protecting Duchene is that Seattle is really not likely to take him. Why waste the spot?

Exactly. Duchene would have to come back on a massive tear, practically go on a Conn Smythe run or something like that, in order for him to magically transform into a player Seattle would look at for his contract. So sure, let's see if that magical transformation takes place.

Then when it doesn't, it would be a sheer waste to use that protection spot on a player that you can be 100% certain Seattle will not take. You don't even have to give him the "benefit of the doubt" or whatever. He's going to be back with us either way, even if you expose him. So he'll get his chance at redemption here regardless.

 

[PredsV82]

Seattle isnt going to be in trouble with the cap early on. I think if Duchene is available they take him. Hes played poorly for us but in a team of mostly 3rd liners he would still be a top C right away

 

[Scoresberg]

Have to think that Poile has also realized the future of this team belongs to Tolvanens, Tomasinos and Kunins instead of Duchenes.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Seattle isnt going to be in trouble with the cap early on. I think if Duchene is available they take him. Hes played poorly for us but in a team of mostly 3rd liners he would still be a top C right away

Would he be a top C right away for them, though? I mean, who is holding him back from that here? He has had every opportunity. Bottom line is nobody will want to pay him $8M for 5 more years, regardless of where that team sits on the Cap or what their competitive aspirations are. He has simply hit that level of negative value. Seattle can get more value out of that Cap space in any variety of ways... getting bribed by other teams to take their bad contracts, signing UFAs they actually want, etc.

Unless WE become a team that bribes them to take our bad contract... maybe they would take Duchene if we gave them a 1st to do so? I do not want to do that.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Have to think that Poile has also realized the future of this team belongs to Tolvanens, Tomasinos and Kunins instead of Duchenes.

Well, who really knows, maybe we can find a way to rehabilitate Duchene and get him back on track. It's not impossible. I'm not writing off that possibility. I just think if it's going to happen, it'll be in a timeframe that pushes out past the Expansion Draft, is all.

 

[predhead1]

Would he be a top C right away for them, though? I mean, who is holding him back from that here? He has had every opportunity. Bottom line is nobody will want to pay him $8M for 5 more years, regardless of where that team sits on the Cap or what their competitive aspirations are.

Just to add to that, I'm sure Ron Francis will have very strong views on Duchene's relative worth as a center in this league.

 

[Kat Predator]

Seattle isnt going to be in trouble with the cap early on. I think if Duchene is available they take him. Hes played poorly for us but in a team of mostly 3rd liners he would still be a top C right away

There are many ways to look at this particular scenario for sure.

Do the Kraken want to roll the dice on him improving with his injury and a 10% cap hit? The cap is likely not increasing soon and, as we found with Turris, a buyout situation would bring a long term penalty to a team trying to sort itself out.

Strictly on paper, he would be a better option than Karlsson was for Vegas as a #1C.

On the other hand, what is his perceived value by other NHL GMs presently? Duchene has played for 4 teams and mostly really bad teams. Doubt caught up with Turris really fast, so it should be asked again here.

On the third hand, the situation is not the same, and it's completely unclear if all the pieces will come together in Seattle for players to reset their careers.

On the fourth hand, does Poile work a deal with Francis? Maybe have them take Jarnkrok and trade a draft pick for an unprotected player from another team in the division, say.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I think the length of Duchene's contract is what makes him unlikely to be picked. Five years is a long time to take the risk that he bounces back. Especially when you consider that Vegas hit the cap four years after they became a team.

I just see exposing Duchene as a no loss situation for us. Worst case scenario we lose him but its not like we gave up any assets for him or he has ever been a key cog in this team. The only downside is the signal you send to future free agents you are trying to sign, but if the message is if we sign you we expect you to play to even a fraction of your contract I don't see that as all bad.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I think the length of Duchene's contract is what makes him unlikely to be picked. Five years is a long time to take the risk that he bounces back. Especially when you consider that Vegas hit the cap four years after they became a team.

I just see exposing Duchene as a no loss situation for us. Worst case scenario we lose him but its not like we gave up any assets for him or he has ever been a key cog in this team. The only downside is the signal you send to future free agents you are trying to sign, but if the message is if we sign you we expect you to play to even a fraction of your contract I don't see that as all bad.

Exactly my thoughts. Duchene being exposed is the ultimate "who cares what happens" in my mind. There's a positive and negative spin out of both scenarios. If Duchene is as much in love with Nashville as he indicates, then he only has a handful of games left to show why he's worth keeping here.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Exactly my thoughts. Duchene being exposed is the ultimate "who cares what happens" in my mind. There's a positive and negative spin out of both scenarios. If Duchene is as much in love with Nashville as he indicates, then he only has a handful of games left to show why he's worth keeping here.

I think it's the ultimate "who cares what happens" because if for some unfathomable reason they took him then:
a) Granlund is proving to be better than him, and we want to sign Granlund anyway
b) we'll suddenly have tons of Cap space --- to pay Granlund, and other players who might also make our team better

Sure, we miss out on whatever a rebounded-Duchene adds to our team. But his Cap hit is so high, it would be really lame if we couldn't use that in an extremely productive way to help our team. (But then that's also precisely why Seattle simply will not take him, of course.)

To me, it's win-win. Gain another protection slot. And the worst-case is actually really the best-case... if Seattle takes him, that ultimately helps us MORE than if they don't! We slide in Granlund and can start planning to integrate Tomasino.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I think it's the ultimate "who cares what happens" because if for some unfathomable reason they took him then:
a) Granlund is proving to be better than him, and we want to sign Granlund anyway
b) we'll suddenly have tons of Cap space --- to pay Granlund, and other players who might also make our team better

Sure, we miss out on whatever a rebounded-Duchene adds to our team. But his Cap hit is so high, it would be really lame if we couldn't use that in an extremely productive way to help our team. (But then that's also precisely why Seattle simply will not take him, of course.)

To me, it's win-win. Gain another protection slot. And the worst-case is actually really the best-case... if Seattle takes him, that ultimately helps us MORE than if they don't! We slide in Granlund and can start planning to integrate Tomasino.

Bingo. It's really hard to imagine spending that money on something less useful than what Duchene has been thus far.

 

[jumb0]

I think it's the ultimate "who cares what happens" because if for some unfathomable reason they took him then:
a) Granlund is proving to be better than him, and we want to sign Granlund anyway
b) we'll suddenly have tons of Cap space --- to pay Granlund, and other players who might also make our team better

Sure, we miss out on whatever a rebounded-Duchene adds to our team. But his Cap hit is so high, it would be really lame if we couldn't use that in an extremely productive way to help our team. (But then that's also precisely why Seattle simply will not take him, of course.)

To me, it's win-win. Gain another protection slot. And the worst-case is actually really the best-case... if Seattle takes him, that ultimately helps us MORE than if they don't! We slide in Granlund and can start planning to integrate Tomasino.

100% spot on

 

[Armourboy]

I think that answer will all come down to things we don't know. Poile has a loyal streak so that alone makes me think he protects Duchene. It will also matter how well he is liked by everyone. I get the feeling that is what got Turris out of here in a hurry.

 

[desmondtootoo]

First year teams need name guys too, even if they cost some big bucks. Along with production, they need a few known faces and names to put on the posters and sweaters. Duchene fits the bill.
Neal and Fleury were those guys for the Knights, year one.