Speculation: Expansion Draft Discussion

[Armourboy]

I'll be real interested to see what Poile does. I figure he goes 4-4-1 but there is just part of me that thinks he will not be impressed with what Ellis brought after his injury, move him and go 7-3-1 and keep some of the guys that did step up during that time.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I'll be real interested to see what Poile does. I figure he goes 4-4-1 but there is just part of me that thinks he will not be impressed with what Ellis brought after his injury, move him and go 7-3-1 and keep some of the guys that did step up during that time.

As long as we get a really strong/fair return on Ellis, I'm all for this. Ellis has played better in general the last couple of seasons than he did previously I've thought, but indeed he has had some struggles since returning this time. And with 6 more years to go... at some point that contract will start to hurt, even though it doesn't yet. I thought it was interesting that Gudbranson logged more icetime than Ellis last night.

I just don't know about the timing of such a trade... there's only a very small number of teams that have a clear "open" protection slot on D, and any team trading for Ellis before Expansion will probably perceive that they have an advantage over Poile in trade talks. For those reasons, I'd rather just go 4-4-1 and take care of that trade after. If Seattle did, say, take Jarnkrok, then if we still like and want him back, I don't think there's anything that would stop us from being the team to trade for him at the deadline or sign him next summer as a free agent.

 

[Kat Predator]

With Ellis' age, injury history, cap hit, and term, is he maybe in the same boat as Duchene to Francis? If they target players in their mid-20s, making $5M with 5 years at most in term, then Ellis wouldn't be on their list.

On the other hand, we're going to lose someone and Poile can choose, to some degree, what carrot to dangle.

Personally, I'd guess that Poile protects them both.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If I switched from 4-4-1 to 7-3-1 today, I'd probably just use the extra 3 protections on the whole Herd Line!

 

[Tysonson3]

Yeah if we leave kunin exposed I might have to head down to nashville myself and have a few words with poile

 

[Scoresberg]

Yeah if we leave kunin exposed I might have to head down to nashville myself and have a few words with poile

I'll fly in over from Finland and join you

 

[Scoresberg]

Have a feeling we're seeing the last of Ellis in Gold..

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Have a feeling we're seeing the last of Ellis in Gold..

don’t be putting me in a good mood first thing thursday morning…

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Have a feeling we're seeing the last of Ellis in Gold..

I wish I could believe that. But I just can't. Poile showed his colors with that lifetime contract, and I just don't see him bailing on Ellis, alas.

 

[hockey diva]

I wish I could believe that. But I just can't. Poile showed his colors with that lifetime contract, and I just don't see him bailing on Ellis, alas.

Which is why we need a new GM asst GM etc. Poile has got to go.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Which is why we need a new GM asst GM etc. Poile has got to go.

Well, I am still willing to see what he does. He talked a real good talk at the post-Trade Deadline presser. He sure seemed to be on top of the pulse of the team at that snapshot in time.

So I'm fine with waiting to see if my cynical fears win out, or if instead Poile is actually going to surprise me and do the right thing. He has earned the right to have the opportunity to do the latter IMO. The Expansion Draft will be a great litmus test of his mindset. I don't think I would expect him to tip his hand in any way in the post-season presser. But the proof will be in the pudding with the Expansion Draft. Who we protect and who we expose is going to provide a clear window into the mindset.

 

[triggrman]

Ellis still has value, and would be a better trade asset than an expansion draft casualty.

I'd trade Ellis.

I'd protect 7-3 after that.

Forsberg, Tovanen, Arvidsson, Sissons, Kunin, Jeanot, Johansen, Josi, Ekholm, Fabbro. I guess it also depends on who you trade Ellis for....

 

[Predsanddead24]

I know that Poile gets the rep of being overly loyal to "his guys" but I'm not sure history really backs that up. He seems very willing to trade or move on from guys if they aren't living up to their contract (Subban and Turris) or he thinks it will make the team better (Weber and Hornqvist). The last expansion draft shows he's willing to expose a better player if he thinks it is a long term benefit to the team to protect someone else too.

 

[GoldOnGold]

Ellis still has value, and would be a better trade asset than an expansion draft casualty.

I'd trade Ellis.

I'd protect 7-3 after that.

Forsberg, Tovanen, Arvidsson, Sissons, Kunin, Jeanot, Johansen, Josi, Ekholm, Fabbro. I guess it also depends on who you trade Ellis for....

Tolvanen is exempt, he doesn't need to be protected.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Tolvanen is exempt, he doesn't need to be protected.

Was going to mention this as well. I add Trenin for Tolvanen. I add Jarnkrok for Johansen.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I still think it's a big "if" on being able to trade Ellis BEFORE the Draft. If you can, great, do it and go 7-3-1. But it's probably going to be a significantly diminished trade market compared to doing it AFTER the Draft.

 

[triggrman]

Was going to mention this as well. I add Trenin for Tolvanen. I add Jarnkrok for Johansen.

meh, I'm not as down on Johansen as most. He's not as bad as Duchene for sure and better than Jarnkrok, IMHO.

 

[Legionnaire11]

If I'm Poile, I'm on the phone as soon as the season ends trying to flip Duchene, Arvidsson and Ellis to teams who might not have better options to protect. Take picks, even if they're not ideal, it's addition by subtraction. And they could still be great players in a different situation, but I think this season has shown that they don't fit with this group and Hynes direction of them (Ellis and Duchene, Arvy I think it more just damaged than out of place).

Then I go 4+4...

Forsberg, Johansen, Kunin, Trenin.
Josi, Ekholm, Fabbro, Carrier
Saros

I know that, when it comes to personalities, loyalties, the human side of things it isn't an easy sell. But logically, it's the difficult decision that needs to be made and if all these guys are professionals, they should understand the business side of things.

If they can't be traded, expose them and hope that it's motivation to clean up their game and find the necessary consistency. It's a tough spot for Poile, I'd hate to actually be in his shoes. It's also tough for us fans, if this offseason backfires, we could be stuck with a miserable Duchene and that contract for too many years.

Luckily, things look bright on the other side of this core.

 

[Scoresberg]

Can’t see us trading Ellis before the draft.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Can’t see us trading Ellis before the draft.

Why not? Surely there are teams out there with crappy enough defense that he slots into their top pair and their protection scheme. Just because he's redundant and a liability on this team doesn't mean he doesn't still have high value throughout the NHL.

 

[Scoresberg]

Why not? Surely there are teams out there with crappy enough defense that he slots into their top pair and their protection scheme. Just because he's redundant and a liability on this team doesn't mean he doesn't still have high value throughout the NHL.

Just because I think we would get more value from him trading him after the draft.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Just because I think we would get more value from him trading him after the draft.

Ah, I understand now. Yeah, that's hard to say without being in the room and on the phones to see what's offered and who Poile wants to protect other than Ellis.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Why not? Surely there are teams out there with crappy enough defense that he slots into their top pair and their protection scheme. Just because he's redundant and a liability on this team doesn't mean he doesn't still have high value throughout the NHL.

Usually teams with crappy defenses aren't looking for 30-year old D with long-term contracts, though. Those teams are rebuilding with youth. The teams that might covet Ellis are probably a notch higher and don't want to lose their current #3 defenseman. Of course there are exceptions. But in general, it's very likely he'll be more valuable after the draft than before.

Take Philly as the example of a team who could be interested: common wisdom is that they will protect their 3 young D, Provorov, Sanheim, and Myers. They probably don't want to lose Sanheim or Myers just to add Ellis. So you basically take them straight off the market if you trade Ellis before the draft.

There are a few teams who aren't that jammed up... Arizona, Detroit, Edmonton, New Jersey, Rangers, Ottawa, Vancouver... it's not impossible there'd be a good pre-Expansion draft trade out there. But I bet those teams will think they have Poile over a barrel and offer him less, thinking they have leverage.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Usually teams with crappy defenses aren't looking for 30-year old D with long-term contracts, though. Those teams are rebuilding with youth. The teams that might covet Ellis are probably a notch higher and don't want to lose their current #3 defenseman. Of course there are exceptions. But in general, it's very likely he'll be more valuable after the draft than before.

Take Philly as the example of a team who could be interested: common wisdom is that they will protect their 3 young D, Provorov, Sanheim, and Myers. They probably don't want to lose Sanheim or Myers just to add Ellis. So you basically take them straight off the market if you trade Ellis before the draft.

There are a few teams who aren't that jammed up... Arizona, Detroit, Edmonton, New Jersey, Rangers, Ottawa, Vancouver... it's not impossible there'd be a good pre-Expansion draft trade out there. But I bet those teams will think they have Poile over a barrel and offer him less, thinking they have leverage.

Yeah, for sure, it's all about value of the trade and/or protecting other players like you were saying earlier. I thought Scoresberg was saying Poile wouldn't be able to find a trading partner.

 

[Legionnaire11]

I've seen too many instances of teams holding onto a guy to maximize value, only to diminish their value.

If we're trading Ellis with the ED in mind, we're not necessarily trying to trade him for his maximum value. Part of the value we're getting is the ability to protect Fabbro or Carrier or both. We're also getting value in removing his defensive liability from the ice, and in freeing up his cap space for someone else.

Taking all of that into account, the Preds are basically already coming out ahead just by giving him away.