Speculation: Expansion Draft Discussion

[OldFan]

I think the rumors of an Ekholm trade was an early indication of what Poile was thinking. I think 7-3-1 is very possible, I just think the Dman looking to be moved may have changed after seeing Ekholm when everyone was injured.

I will not be surprised to see Ellis or Ekholm moved before the draft. I also wouldn't be surprised to see him go 4-4-1 either.

Ekholm and Saros have been the leaders of this surge. It may or may not continue but it should now be clear that Ekholm should not be traded. He is a complete package.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Holy hell, you've put way too much thought into something that isn't going to happen for months.

Also, why protect Arvidsson at this point?

I put zero new thought into that... just summarized what I've already said/thought in other threads.

I protect Arvidsson because I think he's one of the best 4 forwards to protect. I don't see Seattle taking Johansen or Duchene's contracts, but they would cheerfully take Arvidsson. I would rather lose one of the other forwards instead of Arvidsson. That's why I would protect him.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I think the rumors of an Ekholm trade was an early indication of what Poile was thinking. I think 7-3-1 is very possible, I just think the Dman looking to be moved may have changed after seeing Ekholm when everyone was injured.

I will not be surprised to see Ellis or Ekholm moved before the draft. I also wouldn't be surprised to see him go 4-4-1 either.

This is my fear also. I don't see what the point is in trying to go for a 7-3-1 protection, but I do fear that's what Poile wants to do. He'd be a fool and wasting his time to try to protect Johansen or Duchene. He should take a cue from the Turris mess. Yes, you put a lot into getting those centers. But. It didn't work. Move on... if you can.

That said, if he somehow got a great deal for Ellis instead, then it wouldn't be so bad. But it has to be a good deal. Don't just undersell a D-man to fulfill this unnecessary desire to go 7-3-1.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If there's a choice between Jarnkrok and Duchene, which one do you think Seattle will take? I'll give you a hint, there's no way in hell they take Duchene.

Agreed, but I don't see why it would come down to that choice. Because they should take Sissons, Trenin, or Pitlick ahead of Jarnkrok too.

 

[Scoresberg]

Agreed, but I don't see why it would come down to that choice. Because they should take Sissons, Trenin, or Pitlick ahead of Jarnkrok too.

I don't think so. As I said, they're analytically-driven and in terms advanced statistics, Sissons is way overpaid at nearly $3 mil. He's near replacement level and a lot more valuable for us than to any other team. I don't see enough track record with Trenin or Pitlick for them to pick one of those two.

Jarnkrok is a really nice asset for them. Like others have said here, a good player to have around in a rebuild, can play anywhere in the lineup and not look out of place. If he doesn't like it there, they can flip him at the TDL for a nice return.

 

[triggrman]

This is my fear also. I don't see what the point is in trying to go for a 7-3-1 protection, but I do fear that's what Poile wants to do. He'd be a fool and wasting his time to try to protect Johansen or Duchene. He should take a cue from the Turris mess. Yes, you put a lot into getting those centers. But. It didn't work. Move on... if you can.

That said, if he somehow got a great deal for Ellis instead, then it wouldn't be so bad. But it has to be a good deal. Don't just undersell a D-man to fulfill this unnecessary desire to go 7-3-1.

Do we have a better center than Johansen right now?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I don't think so. As I said, they're analytically-driven and in terms advanced statistics, Sissons is way overpaid at nearly $3 mil. He's near replacement level and a lot more valuable for us than to any other team. I don't see enough track record with Trenin or Pitlick for them to pick one of those two.

Jarnkrok is a really nice asset for them. Like others have said here, a good player to have around in a rebuild, can play anywhere in the lineup and not look out of place. If he doesn't like it there, they can flip him at the TDL for a nice return.

They can flip Jarnkrok for like a 2nd round pick. I'd rather have any of the other players than a 2nd round pick.

But again, it is still all totally going to depend on their philosophy and how they chart out their draft. They are going to have an awful lot of middle/lower-6 forwards to choose from, and really it just becomes a matter of taste/philosophy at that point whether you take a veteran impending-UFA guy, or would rather have a lesser player who is younger and has term/upside remaining. It's not inconceivable that they'd take Jarnkrok. But I think it would be dumb. They're allowed to be dumb. In fact, it would be a win for us if they were. Just like if they took Duchene or Johansen instead. Great for us. I don't expect them to be that dumb... it'd just be a bonus for us if they were.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Do we have a better center than Johansen right now?

Nope, we do not. But like I said... I'm not afraid of Seattle taking him. I would gamble that they do not take him due to his contract.

 

[Scoresberg]

Do we have a better center than Johansen right now?

Nope. And while he's certainly overpaid, he's still a good matchup for other 1C's as he's sound defensively and physical.

In terms of production, he's fallen off a cliff but who hasn't under Hynes. He's also very clearly injured which is holding him back obviously.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Nope, we do not. But like I said... I'm not afraid of Seattle taking him. I would gamble that they do not take him due to his contract.

This is the same thing people say about Ellis. I think this fanbase is much more sensitive to the length of the contracts of these players than GMs of other teams are. Sure the contracts sucks for the Preds because there are so many long contract with older players locked up until their mid to late 30s but other teams don't necessarily have that problem. Especially the Kracken who need to spend some money somewhere.

 

[101st_fan]

Who Seattle takes will be influenced by where they want to be in the salary cap range. All analytics being equal, a short term overpayment might be what they need.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Nope. And while he's certainly overpaid, he's still a good matchup for other 1C's as he's sound defensively and physical.

In terms of production, he's fallen off a cliff but who hasn't under Hynes. He's also very clearly injured which is holding him back obviously.

Indeed, and in my 3-4-1 protection scheme so far, I would also not completely discount the option of using the final remaining protection slot on Johansen. It's an option. If you were an NHL GM with an ear to the ground and a sense of what Seattle might be thinking, it would certainly be an option to use that final protection slot on Johansen at the end of the day. He also has the rest of this season and maybe the playoffs to add data to that evaluation.

I'd take Johansen on my team for $5M per, no hesitation. He's worth that much. The question is just where Seattle is going to go with their team. I don't think it's reasonable to project another Vegas surprise there, and they shouldn't be building with that in mind. But who really knows. Today, my gamble is that they would not take Johansen. But I'm open to revising that 3 months from now.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

This is the same thing people say about Ellis. I think this fanbase is much more sensitive to the length of the contracts of these players than GMs of other teams are. Sure the contracts sucks for the Preds because there are so many long contract with older players locked up until their mid to late 30s but other teams don't necessarily have that problem. Especially the Kracken who need to spend some money somewhere.

You would really have to live inside the minds of the Seattle hockey ops team to have any idea what they want to do, though. They get to pick 30 players. They don't need 30 players on their NHL roster. I've done this draft before, and there are just so many variables that I don't think anything is "automatic" to assume. Maybe they'll be willing to invest that money in an older player with term and a huge cap hit, maybe not. They'll get lots of trade offers to dump extra picks and cap-floor contracts on them from teams. They most certainly will not NEED to spend money on taking any big cap hits with their picks. They may choose to, and they may not. But it's not something they will NEED to do.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

What was the largest contract Vegas took on in the expansion draft?

 

[101st_fan]

What was the largest contract Vegas took on in the expansion draft?

Fleury, Neal, Smith R, Grabovski, and Clarkson were all $5-5.75.


Vegas Golden Knights Daily Cap Tracker - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Armourboy]

I could see them taking Joey or Duchene. There won't exactly be a choice of centers to pick from outside of maybe 3rd or 4th line types.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

What was the largest contract Vegas took on in the expansion draft?

Maybe Fleury? 2yrs x $5.75M remaining?

Neal had just 1 year at $5M remaining.

They didn't really pick Reilly Smith, but Florida traded him to them in order to convince them to take Marchessault, but he had just signed a 5x$5M deal. They had some other ha-ha moves like that. They were "bribed" with Gusev to take Jason Garrison with 1-year and $4.6M left as a cap dump. They took Clarkson's LTIR cap hit in order to get William Karlsson and a 2nd from Columbus.

Those are some of the bigger contracts I can see. Although I don't think it really means anything what Vegas did... Seattle will have a completely different set of players and trade offers on the table. Johansen or Duchene could still make sense or no sense at all, depending on all those things and how Seattle wants to do things.

I can't see Seattle coming out quite as "lucky" as Vegas did with some of those bizarre bribe trades, though. To think teams made deals to get them to take players, and they ended up with Smith, Karlsson, Marchessault and Fleury via bribes, got Alex Tuch and Shea Theodore foisted upon them likewise. That was crazy. I don't think Seattle can aspire to that same kind of unexpected luck and success. Hence why I'd focus more on younger building blocks if I was making their picks.

We can speculate all we want today... and even the day before the Expansion Draft itself, and we'll simply never know what they have on the table and what they might be thinking until the draft is actually done. So I don't see the harm in speculating today vs. then... we're not going to know more or less at any point in the process, aside from just seeing how our players finish out the season of course. That's the only extra tiny piece of information we'll ever get.

 

[glenngineer]

If you go 4-4-1, you have no idea which forward they take. This is also assuming your 4 protected dmen are Josi, Ellis, Ekholm and Fabbro. Does Poile protect Carrier instead of one of these 4?

If you go 7-3-1, you almost force Seattle to take a defender and depending on who they've already selected, they could go for a veteran or Carrier. Poile could probably entice Francis to select Ellis if left available and we throw in a 2nd round pick. I think Carrier has shown enough that he can handle a top 4 role. The only concern is injuries and was what happened a fluke or is this his long-term prognosis, not able to stay healthy.

The debate as to who to keep up front is an interesting one. I don't see a brand new expansion team signing onto an $8 million cap hit for a center. It's just not feasible unless they feel they can contend right off the bat.

So who does Poile force Seattle to take? If you go the 7-3-1 route:

Forwards: Joey, Duchene, Forsberg, Arvy, Kunin, Sissons, Jarnkrok?
Defense: Josi, Ekholm, Fabbro
G: Saros

This leaves Ellis and Carrier as the two guys I'd target if I'm Seattle. Does Poile try to re-sign Granlund before free agency and the expansion draft and then have to protect him too, which means one of Kunin, Sissons or Jarnkrok is exposed?

If you go 4-4-1

Forwards: Joey, Duchene, Forsberg, Arvy
Defense: Josi, Ekholm, Fabbro, Carrier
G: Saros

You leave Ellis exposed as well as Kunin, Sissons, Jarnkrok. Or do you protect Ellis and leave Carrier exposed?

Either option you're probably moving a pick to have Seattle take the player you want to lose.

Do you try to move Ellis before the expansion draft and get something for him and then protect the 7-3-1, send a pick to make sure they don't select Carrier?

I wouldn't protect anyone on the third line right now.

I thought I knew what I would do when I first started writing this up and now I've come to a place where I'm just not sure. I honestly think an expansion team would do well to add guys like Jarnkrok or Ellis as they've still got a lot of hockey left while bringing in leadership and heady play to help transition any of the younger players they may select. This also my wishful thinking.

At the end of the day, I still Poile has to force the hand of who Francis will pick as opposed to Francis having Poile over a barrel.

 

[Pr0fet]

Looked quickly at some mock expansion draft and there doesnt seem to be many interesting/big forward/center names at all. That makes me believe that if we expose Duchene/Joey Seattle will pick one of them. Imo 28 yo Johansens 4 years term is alot better than 30 yo Duchenes 5 years term which makes me believe they will pick Johansen. Considering the contracts Johansen is also the one Id want to keep which is why Id go Forsberg/Arvy/Joey and probably Kunin

 

[herzausstein]

4-4-1 is still the best option at this point.

Defense
Ekholm
Ellis
Josi
Fabbro

Expose:
Borowiecki (bottom pairing dman)
Benning (6/7 dman)
Carrier (young dman that has shown promise but only has 20 NHL games under his belt and is a total unknown in terms of his ability to play from season to season. I don't think he'll get picked)
Allard/Lewington/Harpur - won't get picked

Forwards:
Forsberg - Obviously
Kunin - young with years of control left
Arvidsson - although his play this year has been rough he's still 5th on the team in points. He's still a valuable contributor on a good contract.
Johansen - i guess

Expose:
Sissons - really expensive for a 4th liner that can go up to 3rd line if needed
Jarnkrok/Grimaldi/Cousins - all have only 1 year left on contract. Maybe Seattle bites on one but that's a heck of a risk that they waste their pick on someone that walks in a year.
Trenin/Pitlick/etc - likely not picked because they haven't shown much on the NHL level.
*EDIT* Duchene - I don't think Seattle takes that contract as it's a huge ??? considering he hasn't played up to the contract here and has spent considerable time this season injured. If he does get picked, that's 8M capspace for us.

Goalie:
Protect Saros obviously.

I think Sissons gets picked due to contract length and stability.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

4-4-1 is still the best option at this point.

Defense
Ekholm
Ellis
Josi
Fabbro

Expose:
Borowiecki (bottom pairing dman)
Benning (6/7 dman)
Carrier (young dman that has shown promise but only has 20 NHL games under his belt and is a total unknown in terms of his ability to play from season to season. I don't think he'll get picked)
Allard/Lewington/Harpur - won't get picked

Forwards:
Forsberg - Obviously
Kunin - young with years of control left
Arvidsson - although his play this year has been rough he's still 5th on the team in points. He's still a valuable contributor on a good contract.
Johansen - i guess

Expose:
Sissons - really expensive for a 4th liner that can go up to 3rd line if needed
Jarnkrok/Grimaldi/Cousins - all have only 1 year left on contract. Maybe Seattle bites on one but that's a heck of a risk that they waste their pick on someone that walks in a year.
Trenin/Pitlic/etc - likely not picked because they haven't shown much on the NHL level.

Goalie:
Protect Saros obviously.

I think Sissons gets picked due to contract length and stability.

Perfect summary.

 

[Kat Predator]

I don't think Seattle will necessarily shy away from guys in the last year of their contract. On the downside, if that player turns out to be a perfect fit, Seattle will have to negotiate a new contract to keep him. Still they can set themselves up to have plenty of cap space to do precisely that. (There is 0% chance they keep every player they select in the expansion draft long term.)

The upsides are that if the player doesn't fit well into the lineup, there is no term. He can be traded or let walk. It's a no harm, no foul situation for both the team and the player. As a bonus, the player might be turbo motivated by being in a contract year and having been deemed expendable via the expansion draft by his last team, so Seattle could stand to reap the rewards for at least its inaugural season. Businesswise it's hard to see the Kraken not liking that.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

Hey guys, Seattle fan just lurking in here.

I disagree. Seattle will have to take some higher cap to get to the cap floor. Duchene is still a bigger name in the nhl. Yea his contract isn’t ideal but he’s still a lower 1 or a very good 2. Same with Joey. If they are left exposed one of them will be taken. Seattle is trying to build up a fan base. Taking bottom 6 forwards won’t do that.

We have to take players worth 60 - 100 % of the salary cap which means we could go as low as $48.9 mil for 30 players.
So no, we don't have to take guys with an $8 mil cap hit for the next five years who haven't produced that much lately.

Also, we currently have 51k + on the waiting list for season tickets(also sold about 3 to 4 times as much merchandise as Vegas did up until that point in there existense) after selling out season tickets within a couple of hours.

Given the flat cap right now, and teams being in tough spots because of that, taking on players like that also gets you into cap hell pretty quick(which is why you wouldn't mind losing the player for nothing) and that would be pretty bad asset(cap space) management by Francis.

 

[Scoresberg]

Yep, I don't think Seattle touches Duchene.

If they take Sissons, I'll consider it a win for us. He's a good little player for us but overpaid and perhaps even overrated because of the Cup run.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Yep, I don't think Seattle touches Duchene.

If they take Sissons, I'll consider it a win for us. He's a good little player for us but overpaid and perhaps even overrated because of the Cup run.

I think we almost can't "lose" in this expansion draft. Not if Poile stays sensible and goes 4-4-1 anyway. I like Sissons, he has shown he's a good physical bottom-6 center, still somewhat young, and I don't mind his cap hit. I think it would be a win for Seattle to get him too. They won't get too many players who can be longer-term pieces for them like that.

But pretty much the same goes for anybody they might take from us in the 4-4-1 scenario. If it was Jarnkrok, his versatility is a plus for a team that might need players to adapt to a variety of roles or play higher in the lineup than they otherwise might, and they can cash him in for a decent draft pick at the trade deadline. If it was a younger "prospect" type like Trenin or Pitlick or Carrier, who knows, they might get a player there, or not. Etc. They'll get a decent asset whichever direction they choose to go. But at the same time, not a player that will really hurt us significantly to lose. We have to lose somebody.

Where we could "lose" is if Poile does feel he needs to protect Duchene, or further if he feels he needs to go 7-3-1 and protect those guys like Sissons and Jarnkrok. Because we simply don't need to. That would be a mistake by Poile.