Speculation: Expansion Draft Discussion

[NoNecksCurse]

i still think it’s too early to talk expansion draft. if it was me, i would be seeing what it would take for them to select Duchene. Way too early IMO though. Duchene could light it up and win a conn smythe this year.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

i still think it’s too early to talk expansion draft. if it was me, i would be seeing what it would take for them to select Duchene. Way too early IMO though. Duchene could light it up and win a conn smythe this year.

2 or 3 years ago I argued that it was too early. That we wouldn't even know what our roster was going to be come summer 2021. But now... 2 or 3 months left... I think we know what our roster is, and it's the right time to discuss it and include all the requisite caveats such as Duchene's forthcoming Conn Smythe potential. At this point, everything our players do the rest of the way is actually a 2nd order effect. The bigger uncertainty is still going to be Seattle's philosophy and how they strategize all the rest of their picks and trades, and that is simply something we will NEVER know until after the draft happens. That's 90%+ of the uncertainty right now. So if you aren't comfortable discussing the Expansion Draft now, then I think you probably shouldn't ever be, because that 1st order uncertainty is going to be there right up until draft day.

 

[herzausstein]

I like Sissons but he's overpaid for a role that he plays on the team. Now I think he could play a bigger role but he isn't being given the chance. So if he's taken it won't hurt my feelings. I'll be glad to see him get an opportunity elsewhere and we'll move someone into that 4C role. I think we have several candidates internally.

Johansen or Duchene I don't see them being interested in his caphit but if they take either of them (as of right now) that looks like a good deal for us. We gain 8M in capspace. We can go free agent hunting or extend Granlund on a reasonable short term contract. I think Joey is better defensively and Duchene may be cursed personally. Kunin has come on so strong post injury that he's at a higher point per game pace then both of them. Given he's cheaper and younger I'd protect him over both of Joey/Duchene so one (or both) of them have to be exposed.

If they take one of Jarnkrok, Grimaldi, Cousins, we can attempt to get them back in 1 season if we truly want them. If not, then I think Grimaldi and Cousins could be replaced by Tomasino. Jarnkrok is harder to replace but putting Sissons in a more expanded role would fill the gap some.

None of those forwards are worth losing Ellis/Ekholm for nothing. The return we could get for trading one of them after the expansion when teams aren't afraid of losing someone because we messed up their expansion plans would likely be better than any of those forwards (unless Duchene really turns it up at end of season).

 

[Jonesey]

Hey guys, Seattle fan just lurking in here.



We have to take players worth 60 - 100 % of the salary cap which means we could go as low as $48.9 mil for 30 players.
So no, we don't have to take guys with an $8 mil cap hit for the next five years who haven't produced that much lately.

Also, we currently have 51k + on the waiting list for season tickets(also sold about 3 to 4 times as much merchandise as Vegas did up until that point in there existense) after selling out season tickets within a couple of hours.

Given the flat cap right now, and teams being in tough spots because of that, taking on players like that also gets you into cap hell pretty quick(which is why you wouldn't mind losing the player for nothing) and that would be pretty bad asset(cap space) management by Francis.

So where can I get a good deal on a fitted Seattle hat? I love the logo and colors.

 

[Paranoid Android]

One question I think relates to expansion protection... what does the future hold for Ekholm? Can Nashville afford Ekholm long term? Is he willing to re-sign here?

Looking at the potential 2022-23 roster...
Josi - 9.06
Ellis - 6.25
Ekholm - 6.25? Surely he doesn't get less than Ellis.
Fabbro - 2-3? He's RFA this summer
Carrier - .733
Farrance - 1.0 rough guess
A veteran - 1.0 rough guess

Puts us at about $26-28M tied up in defense, good for 3rd most expensive D in the league. A little high, but manageable. Although, not much breathing room left for forwards. Also not much room for "youth movement"

I think you could argue that one of Ellis or Ekholm won't be on the team by next summer. Might be wise to just trade one of them now and go 7-3-1.

 

[triggrman]

Ekholm has stated he wants to be here. I think you have to do your best to make that happen, he's very valuable to us.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

One question I think relates to expansion protection... what does the future hold for Ekholm? Can Nashville afford Ekholm long term? Is he willing to re-sign here?

Looking at the potential 2022-23 roster...
Josi - 9.06
Ellis - 6.25
Ekholm - 6.25? Surely he doesn't get less than Ellis.
Fabbro - 2-3? He's RFA this summer
Carrier - .733
Farrance - 1.0 rough guess
A veteran - 1.0 rough guess

Puts us at about $26-28M tied up in defense, good for 3rd most expensive D in the league. A little high, but manageable. Although, not much breathing room left for forwards. Also not much room for "youth movement"

I think you could argue that one of Ellis or Ekholm won't be on the team by next summer. Might be wise to just trade one of them now and go 7-3-1.

In some thread somewhere I laid out our cap progression for the next few years.

Bottom line, Ekholm is not going to be a problem no matter what. He says he wants to be here. He has said and demonstrated that he's not really a "money" guy. I am convinced he's better than Ellis. So you could argue therefore that he deserves more than $6.25M. But at the same time, it would not surprise me in the least that he takes something less, like $5M. It's really only term that worries me on the Ekholm front... I don't want any more 8-year contracts. For 4- or 5-years, I don't care what he makes... $5M, $7M, he's worth it and will help us --- and we can easily afford it.

My only consideration in terms of making moves on defense is not contract/cap related. It's just more of a chemistry/style thing. I just feel like we have a ton of smaller/mobile/PMD-style D coming in who are ready/nearly-ready to play. Farrance and Davies, Fabbro and Carrier, they are in that category, and that ultimately is what makes me look askance at keeping Ellis. Not the cap hit. At least, not in the near-term sense. Ellis is worth $6.25M. For now. 5 years from now?... doubtful. But independent of all that, we have a lot of those smaller PMD-style D coming in, and no other kind of D at all, really. You can't run a team with 5 undersized guys on D, can you? Well, maybe you can. But I wouldn't make that my preferred approach, anyway.

So to me, if we can trade Ellis for a legit return in the off-season, whether it's before or after Expansion, that's something I'd want to seriously consider. But again, we have no actual PRESSURE to do it. Just if the return is good enough.

 

[Armourboy]

I wouldn't be shocked if one of Ekholm or Ellis is moved if nothing else than to get younger. I think Poile's initial thought was that it would be Ekholm but I think after seeing him play with the young guys through the injuries and Ellis being injured once again that opinion may have changed.

Me personally I would move Ellis mainly because I think his injury history and that contract are not looking all that hot. Feels like he has one major injury every season.

 

[OldFan]

Ekholm has stated he wants to be here. I think you have to do your best to make that happen, he's very valuable to us.

I’ll say again; if the Preds didn’t have Ekholm they would be desperately seeking one of him.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If I was planning my lineup for next season, here's what I would like it to be so far, as of today:

Green = protected in Expansion Draft
Blue = exempt from Expansion Draft
Red = use UFA Status to dodge the Expansion Draft
Black = available in Expansion Draft


Forsberg ($6M) - Johansen ($8M) - Arvidsson ($4.25M)
Tolvanen (RFA - $3M) - Granlund (UFA - $4M) - Tomasino ($0.925M)
Jarnkrok ($2M) - Duchene ($8M) - Kunin ($2.3M)
Trenin ($0.725M) - Sissons ($2.857M) - Olivier (RFA - $0.725M)
Cousins ($1.5M)/Grimaldi ($2M)

Josi ($9.059M) - Fabbro (RFA - $2.5M)
Ekholm ($3.75M)- Carrier ($0.733M)
Harpur (RFA - $0.725M) - Ellis ($6.25M)
Borowiecki ($2M)/Benning($1M)

Saros (RFA - $4M)
Rinne (UFA - $3M)
Ingram ($0.733M)

Cap Subtotal: $79.3M
Buyouts (Turris + Santini) = $2.275M

CAP TOTAL: $81.57M

So that is snug against the cap, but it's also an extra player and somebody will be lost to Seattle, so there isn't actually any cap issue there. I'd try to trade Borowiecki. I'd just be bridging Tolvanen and Fabbro for now, so ideally just 2-year deals, say. I'd keep Rinne for 1 more year as the veteran backup/mentor, but definitely work Ingram in for cameos if he's up to that level again.

And I'd be ok with signing Granlund for 3 or 4 years if the price isn't too extravagant. But I won't break the bank on term or $$$ for him. He's doing pretty well at C right now, but you could flip him and Tomasino around at times if Tomasino proved up to it. Similarly you could flip Forsberg/Tolvanen's spots if things looked better one way or the other. And sorry Duchene, but you're on the 3rd line until you can prove otherwise (or if we simply can't get Granlund back, then we're still covered).

I think we have a lot of flexibility, and whoever we lost in this scenario to Seattle, we can cover for it. There's no need to jump through any extra hoops. Everybody has to lose a player.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

If I was planning my lineup for next season, here's what I would like it to be so far, as of today:

Green = protected in Expansion Draft
Blue = exempt from Expansion Draft
Red = use UFA Status to dodge the Expansion Draft
Black = available in Expansion Draft


Forsberg ($6M) - Johansen ($8M) - Arvidsson ($4.25M)
Tolvanen (RFA - $3M) - Granlund (UFA - $4M) - Tomasino ($0.925M)
Jarnkrok ($2M) - Duchene ($8M) - Kunin ($2.3M)
Trenin ($0.725M) - Sissons ($2.857M) - Olivier (RFA - $0.725M)
Cousins ($1.5M)/Grimaldi ($2M)

Josi ($9.059M) - Fabbro (RFA - $2.5M)
Ekholm ($3.75M)- Carrier ($0.733M)
Harpur (RFA - $0.725M) - Ellis ($6.25M)
Borowiecki ($2M)/Benning($1M)

Saros (RFA - $4M)
Rinne (UFA - $3M)
Ingram ($0.733M)

Cap Subtotal: $79.3M
Buyouts (Turris + Santini) = $2.275M

CAP TOTAL: $81.57M

So that is snug against the cap, but it's also an extra player and somebody will be lost to Seattle, so there isn't actually any cap issue there. I'd try to trade Borowiecki. I'd just be bridging Tolvanen and Fabbro for now, so ideally just 2-year deals, say. I'd keep Rinne for 1 more year as the veteran backup/mentor, but definitely work Ingram in for cameos if he's up to that level again.

And I'd be ok with signing Granlund for 3 or 4 years if the price isn't too extravagant. But I won't break the bank on term or $$$ for him. He's doing pretty well at C right now, but you could flip him and Tomasino around at times if Tomasino proved up to it. Similarly you could flip Forsberg/Tolvanen's spots if things looked better one way or the other. And sorry Duchene, but you're on the 3rd line until you can prove otherwise (or if we simply can't get Granlund back, then we're still covered).

I think we have a lot of flexibility, and whoever we lost in this scenario to Seattle, we can cover for it. There's no need to jump through any extra hoops. Everybody has to lose a player.

I think we probably need to explore at least one additional second line-type forward. When you look at the injury issues this year, we've been able to somehow survive by committee, but it's not a long-term recipe for success. This lineup also places a lot of pressure on Tolvanen/Tomasino to produce.

 

[desmondtootoo]

So where can I get a good deal on a fitted Seattle hat? I love the logo and colors.

That anchor is rather derivative of the original Mariners trident.

 

[Kat Predator]

The expansion draft rules let teams pick which poison pill they want to take. One option lets a team protect effectively protect their first and second lines of forwards and expose a one of their second pairing defensemen. The other option lets a team protect the first and second pairing of defensemen, but means a second line forward should be exposed.

For Seattle, the system is meant to allow them to build a team with 4 lines of middle six, 3 pairings of defensemen with second pairing minutes, experienced goaltending, and NHL talent for depth.

For Poile, the aforementioned poison pill decision would effectively boil down to losing 1 of Duchene, Jarnkrok, or Kunin vs. losing 1 of Ekholm or Fabbro. From the Kraken's perspective, any one of those options could be very attractive depending on their overall plan. Duchene or Ekholm would be attractive options that could be moved into first line roles but would cost, but then the Kraken have to spend cap on somebody regardless. Kunin and Fabbro would be attractive price controlled but younger and less proven options to develop for the longer term. Jarnkrok would be a great puzzle piece in terms of performance-to-cost and be a utility player who could slot in anywhere in the lineup for a year.

The one thing this rollercoaster season is showing though is that the Predators development pipeline may not have been as completely barren and empty as it was being sold as. Add that the NHL is to some extent a game of free agent musical chairs, and there will be options available for the Preds. They may not be great options, they may not work out, or they may cost more. But the jig isn't up no matter who Seattle takes.

 

[Scoresberg]

What was also interesting how direct Poile was about the expansion draft in last night's presser. He isn't going to lose Ekholm which was obvious but he also said "he has that taken care of" talking about the expansion draft in general. Could that mean one of the $8 mil centers is exposed?

 

[Armourboy]

What was also interesting how direct Poile was about the expansion draft in last night's presser. He isn't going to lose Ekholm which was obvious but he also said "he has that taken care of" talking about the expansion draft in general. Could that mean one of the $8 mil centers is exposed?

I think it's his way of saying he is going 4-4, who those 4 forwards are is anyone's guess other than Forsberg.

 

[Softball99]

I won't be surprised if Ellis wasn't "protected" from deadline trade because of a handshake agreement with Seattle. Hynes style is trending big & or young. Contrary to chatter Ellis would be snapped up quickly by any team much less expansion team. Gudbranson and Josi. Ek Carrier. Harper Fabbro.

 

[triggrman]

I won't be surprised if Ellis wasn't "protected" from deadline trade because of a handshake agreement with Seattle. Hynes style is trending big & or young. Contrary to chatter Ellis would be snapped up quickly by any team much less expansion team. Gudbranson and Josi. Ek Carrier. Harper Fabbro.

Ellis would be snapped up and it would be stupid asset management. I don't know what the rest of your post means. Harpur and Gudbranson will certainly not be protected, neither will Carrier. Ekholm, Fabbro, Josi and Ellis, IMHO are the protects.

 

[OldFan]

I won't be surprised if Ellis wasn't "protected" from deadline trade because of a handshake agreement with Seattle. Hynes style is trending big & or young. Contrary to chatter Ellis would be snapped up quickly by any team much less expansion team. Gudbranson and Josi. Ek Carrier. Harper Fabbro.

Ellis would likely get chosen if left unprotected. We’ve seen some very good players so long that we sometimes overlook how good they are and how coveted they are by other clubs. I noted quickly how good Ellis looked compared to other D’s Preds have been using. Preds have some guys that have stepped up but they’re just guys compared to Ellis. Ekholm, Josi, Ellis and Fabbro can play D for me all the day long.

 

[LCPreds]

Ellis is definitely better than he gets credit for locally. The issue we have is that we have such a concentration of good players on defense we are arguably out of balance. And that’s fine if this is a video game where you can just reallocate assets to offense. The problem is if we let someone like Ellis walk how does it actually improve the team?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Let's see how the season plays out, but it still seems to me like we might be able to get away with effectively going 6-4-1 by exposing Duchene and Johansen. I just can't see how a new expansion team takes those contracts with the production those players have had these last 2 years.

It would also surprise me a lot if Seattle was in a position to make any "handshake" agreements with any teams yet. There's still too much time left and things to transpire for that to make sense. So while the way Poile stated it in the presser certainly made it sound like that could be one interpretation, I just don't see that making practical sense in terms of timing.

No, I just suspect that he has now mentally pivoted to being committed to protecting 4 D, no matter what. Whereas he may have approached the season wondering if he could figure out a way to go 7-3-1, the way things have turned out this season may have inspired him to pivot in that thinking as well.

 

[Paranoid Android]

Ellis would likely get chosen if left unprotected. We’ve seen some very good players so long that we sometimes overlook how good they are and how coveted they are by other clubs. I noted quickly how good Ellis looked compared to other D’s Preds have been using. Preds have some guys that have stepped up but they’re just guys compared to Ellis. Ekholm, Josi, Ellis and Fabbro can play D for me all the day long.

I thought the same thing on Ellis. I know we like to criticize him, but his smooth, smart play was immediately noticeable when he got back. It's nice having a guy out there who doesn't look like he's having a panic attack. I'll dare say he looked better than Ekholm at times. If we feel comfortable spending that much on our top 4, then it is set for the next several years.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Ellis is definitely better than he gets credit for locally. The issue we have is that we have such a concentration of good players on defense we are arguably out of balance. And that’s fine if this is a video game where you can just reallocate assets to offense. The problem is if we let someone like Ellis walk how does it actually improve the team?

I am definitely onboard with changing out Ellis and looking for a different mix on defense. I've been pushing that for at least 3 years now. It's compounded by the fact that so many of our upcoming prospects on D are likewise smaller PMD-style defensemen. You CAN have too much of a good thing in some ways.

But to me that needs to be taken offline from the Expansion talk. You don't "let him walk", lose him in Expansion. Because even if you think he's not the exact right fit in our D mix right now, he's simply an order of magnitude more valuable than any other asset we could conceivably lose in Expansion. You can't let him be your Expansion loss vs. somebody like Jarnkrok or Sissons, for example, that would just be terrible asset management. And you can't let any other team hold you hostage to the idea that you somehow NEED to trade him before the Expansion draft just so you can protect those players instead.

Nope, if we are going to trade Ellis, fine... but it can happen after the Expansion Draft. And for a really nice package that is much much more valuable than what we'd project to lose in the Expansion Draft.

 

[Predsanddead24]

If I were Poile it is a pretty easy decision as of now to expose both Duchene and Johansen. If one or both of them go god mode to end the season then you reconsider but that doesn't seem super likely to me. If one of them gets taken then re-sign Granlund to be your other center for the next few seasons.

 

[LCPreds]

If I were Poile it is a pretty easy decision as of now to expose both Duchene and Johansen. If one or both of them go god mode to end the season then you reconsider but that doesn't seem super likely to me. If one of them gets taken then re-sign Granlund to be your other center for the next few seasons.

I actually like Joey. It would annoy me if we exposed both and Seattle took Joey. I think the Preds become worse in that scenario vs if Duchene gets picked up. So my preference if the math works is to protect Joey and expose Duchene. Who knows, maybe they’ll take him.

 

[Softball99]

I think we'll get a sweetener back for Ellis...draft pick or forward remember.. Vegas draft some teams had more than just dumps