Speculation: Expansion Draft Discussion

[Legionnaire11]

The NHL is different than any other sport though in that all of the expansion options other than Quebec are in non-traditional markets. If the NFL, NBA or MLB expanded, there's nowhere in NA that wouldn't fully embrace it from day one. The NHL on the other hand finally figured out that in order to ensure a healthy expansion market, the team can't be god awful for the first decade. So they made the expansion draft more favorable.

I'm glad they finally figured this out, only wish they had realized it two decades earlier.

 

[desmondtootoo]

Yeah, that’s interesting. I was thinking the other day how hockey really is a niche sport. Very small aggregate of places that really care about it, in America. Like soccer or WNBA. It’s why NHL has 8-9 M salaries as the top, while the big 3 are paying guys 20-25 M.
I do think the NHL didn’t give SEA the same good deals that they gave LV. There’s not a mountain of cash there waiting to be spent on something new and exciting.
Wonder how the Raiders will do. First, they have to not suck, same as the Knights.

 

[jumb0]

Yeah, that’s interesting. I was thinking the other day how hockey really is a niche sport. Very small aggregate of places that really care about it, in America. Like soccer or WNBA. It’s why NHL has 8-9 M salaries as the top, while the big 3 are paying guys 20-25 M.
I do think the NHL didn’t give SEA the same good deals that they gave LV. There’s not a mountain of cash there waiting to be spent on something new and exciting.
Wonder how the Raiders will do. First, they have to not suck, same as the Knights.

The Raiders will be fine because NFL is king.

 

[triggrman]

Yeah, that’s interesting. I was thinking the other day how hockey really is a niche sport. Very small aggregate of places that really care about it, in America. Like soccer or WNBA. It’s why NHL has 8-9 M salaries as the top, while the big 3 are paying guys 20-25 M.
I do think the NHL didn’t give SEA the same good deals that they gave LV. There’s not a mountain of cash there waiting to be spent on something new and exciting.
Wonder how the Raiders will do. First, they have to not suck, same as the Knights.

Weren't the expansion rules set for both teams? What I mean is both teams had the exact same set of rules.

 

[Legionnaire11]

Weren't the expansion rules set for both teams? What I mean is both teams had the exact same set of rules.

Yes, the only advantage for Vegas was going first. They presumably had a better crop of players to choose from (like the Preds in our class) but even more so that the other teams didn't know exactly what to expect going into it the first time. With Seattle everyone knew what to expect and nobody did Francis any favors.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Yes, the only advantage for Vegas was going first. They presumably had a better crop of players to choose from (like the Preds in our class) but even more so that the other teams didn't know exactly what to expect going into it the first time. With Seattle everyone knew what to expect and nobody did Francis any favors including Francis.

Fixed it for you.

 

[desmondtootoo]

Yes, the only advantage for Vegas was going first. They presumably had a better crop of players to choose from (like the Preds in our class) but even more so that the other teams didn't know exactly what to expect going into it the first time. With Seattle everyone knew what to expect and nobody did Francis any favors.

It did seem that the other teams and GMs just bent over backwards to go along and get along with McPhee, and did none of it for Francis.
Whether a conspiracy, or just the confusion and chaos of figuring out a whole new set of rules and the strategies that go with them.
Written of course specifically for LV and their draft.

 

[desmondtootoo]

The Raiders will be fine because NFL is king.

They will have to sell thug life to Las Vegas, lol.
Which shouldn’t be too hard.
Al Davis, Ben Davidson, George Atkinson, Jack Tatum, Jamarcus Russell ….. all say hi !!

 

[nine_inch_fang]

It did seem that the other teams and GMs just bent over backwards to go along and get along with McPhee, and did none of it for Francis.
Whether a conspiracy, or just the confusion and chaos of figuring out a whole new set of rules and the strategies that go with them.
Written of course specifically for LV and their draft.

GMs definitely learned from their mistakes and were better prepared but there was still major leverage for Francis to gain picks and prospects but it's been reported that he over reached. If you take a combination of better prepared GMs and a pitiful showing by Francis it makes sense that the Kraken look pretty miserable right now.

 

[Armourboy]

It's like the Washington goalie thing. I've seen some people say " why didn't Washington just offer a 2nd to protect him to start with? " and the answer is because Francis wanted more.

Yes GM's were better prepped but his ridiculous asking prices cost his team so many draft picks.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I guess they don't look COMPLETELY miserable... signing Wennberg and Schwartz at least lets them round out a lineup...

Schwartz - Gourde - Eberle
Jarnkrok - Wennberg - Donskoi
Tanev - McCann - Appleton
Blackwell - Geekie - Bastian
True

Giordano - Larsson
Oleksiak - Dunn
Soucy - Lauzon
Fleury - Borgen

Grubauer
Driedger

... it's a... lineup. I think we only mainly dwell on a few picks where Francis clearly missed out on gathering actual player assets (Columbus, Chicago, Philadelphia primarily)... and then the goalie fiasco... and then the lack of accumulating any extra draft picks or in any way leveraging his leftover cap space. So there are definitely some shortcomings and he definitely left asset value on the table. But he still got about 80% of it right, to be fair. And signing 6 fairly significant UFAs overall was not necessarily anticipated (Schwartz, Wennberg, Larsson, Oleksiak, Grubauer, Driedger). You'd think with all the time and options they had they could have come closer to 100%, though.

But I wouldn't say it was a completely unmitigated disaster... he still made the right picks - or close enough - in the large majority of cases. That he could also have had 3 other players, maybe another couple 2nd round picks, etc, shouldn't be an irrecoverable error. Slightly unfortunate, but not catastrophic.

I don't think it's a playoff team by any stretch. But they also could have done worse.

Vegas picked:

Perron - Marchessault - Karlsson (6 goals version)
Bellemare - Haula - Neal
Carrier - Eakin - Nosek
Leipsic - Lindberg - Thorburn
Pulkkinen/Brickley

Schmidt - Miller
Emelin - Methot
Van Riemsdyk - Engelland
Sbisa - Merrill
Schlemko - Stoner
Garrison - McNabb
Reinhart

Fleury
Pickard
Berube

I don't think Vegas did any better in terms of players selected. Where they killed was in the trades and bribes, and if you take that off the table via some combination of NHL GMs learning their lesson and Francis sticking stubbornly to inflated bribe thresholds, well, that's mainly where Seattle fell short. Vegas got Shea Theodore, Reilly Smith, Alex Tuch, 3 1st round picks, 4 2nd round picks, and half a dozen later picks in direct bribes. Then on top of that they traded 5 of the guys they picked for 5 more later draft picks. That's almost 20 extra draft picks accumulated, which helped stock many of their subsequent roster-building trades. By contrast, Seattle received... one 2nd and one 4th?

 

[Armourboy]

That's where Francis failed. He took no bribes and made no deals that would stock pile picks. I also think his poker face was just horrible and many GM's figured out real quick he wasn't going to be taking on big contracts, which is why you saw so many guys being talked into waiving. They called his bluff and he was unwilling to follow through.

I look at a guy like Tarasenko. Ok St. Louis wasn't going to give you a 1st and 3rd to take him, but maybe you can get a 2nd + 4th, retain and flip, and then pick up another 2nd and 4th. Or if you want Dunn then work out a deal for both players with you taking a 3rd for Tarasenko and flip him. You end up with a 2nd, 3rd, 4th and Dunn and just ate some cap.

Vegas maybe took some lesser deals and then hardlined on some others. Francis just wanted everyone to pay up.

 

[triggrman]

I bet Jarnkrok breaks 55 points this season.

 

[Adz]

Vegas had a galvanizing city experience, too. Everyone rallied together after those people were killed at MGM. Everyone. I noticed it with New Orleans after the hurricane and Boston after the marathon bombings. People are looking for something, anything to bring them together. So Vegas' new players were there for the city, and the city was there for them. Vegas was good and McPhee made a lot of good deals for Vegas, but were they THAT good? Probably not. It doesn't have to be something bad, either. We saw it in a positive way after we had such a successful All Star Game -- those good vibes carried over into our Cup run. Team and fans fall a little bit in love with each other and they want to do right by the other party. Lightning in a bottle, you can't market it, you can only hope to get some at the right time.

I think making it easier for a team to win in a new market is a good thing overall, but I'll admit I am a little jealous that the struggle hasn't been there for them.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I bet Jarnkrok breaks 55 points this season.

Well, I would not take that bet on either side.

But I do think it'll be kinda funny if he does have a great season like that, and all the pundits are like ooooh, you lost 55-pt guy on a $2M contract and <laugh laugh> protected some grinder who got 17 pts.

I hope he does get 55 points, either way. He wouldn't have got it here.

 

[Armourboy]

Do I think Jarnkrok could have one magical season where he gets 55 points? Yeah its possible. Do I think it would be more than that? Nope.

Would I bet anything on it? Oh heck no

 

[Kat Predator]

Do I think Jarnkrok could have one magical season where he gets 55 points? Yeah its possible. Do I think it would be more than that? Nope.

Would I bet anything on it? Oh heck no

For Ironman, it is a contract year, and we know what that means...

On Francis, I suspect that is some blend of

• Building through the draft. (That's polar opposite to Vegas.)
• No poker face. He was going to tuck tail on any big $ + term contracts and everyone knew it.
• Reticence to make trades and wheel and deal. (Again the polar opposite of McPhee.)
• Not wanting to spend too much of the cap.
• Outbidding himself in a pandemic constrained business.
• Slow, steady, conservative as an M.O.

Both Seattle and Vegas had the same expansion draft rules, but their approaches to those rules look to be polar opposite and that's likely just a reflection of the GM's personality/comfort level. McPhee approached it all hyper-aggressively with a "go for the jugular" mindset—and perhaps he knew he was going to step aside rather quickly for McCrimmon. Conversely, Francis seems to be setting the table for a longer, more sustained climb using the traditional tools and not really looking for shortcuts. In some ways, a bit of struggling out of the gate gives a GM more headroom to improve the franchise over the course of a decade or whatever the horizon is that is being set.

 

[Enoch]

And yet McPhee walked out with an enormous amount of draft picks as well

 

[Armourboy]

And yet McPhee walked out with an enormous amount of draft picks as well

And that's the biggest failure. If his goal was to be more conservative and build he screwed that up royally. Mainly because he was being cheap.

 

[Kat Predator]

And that's the biggest failure. If his goal was to be more conservative and build he screwed that up royally. Mainly because he was being cheap.

He seems to be treating the cap like money coming out of his own paycheck. And for all the deals getting done, it's like his cellphone is sitting at the bottom of Puget Sound. Extremely cautious approach to say the least. Or maybe he's trying to make deals, but he's treating it like he's a mugger in an alley rather than trying to find opportunities that serve both sides of the equation.

Bottom line: the results have been between ho-hum and snooze button.