Speculation: Expansion Draft Discussion

[Porter Stoutheart]

I actually like Joey. It would annoy me if we exposed both and Seattle took Joey. I think the Preds become worse in that scenario vs if Duchene gets picked up. So my preference if the math works is to protect Joey and expose Duchene. Who knows, maybe they’ll take him.

I think it will be pretty easy to determine before July 21 what the likelihood is of Seattle taking Johansen. Today, his stats line is the same as Erik Haula's, and Haula is a guy any team in the NHL will be able to sign to a short-team deal under $3M. And that's with more opportunity and better linemates for Johansen. Last year Johansen's production wasn't much different than Nick Bonino and Kyle Turris. Not said to knock Johansen per se, but just to illustrate what the optics might be from an external perspective.

Of course, just as we don't look completely at a player's stats line, neither will Seattle. But at the same time, Poile as he noted in the presser, is constantly talking to all 31 other GMs, has gathered a firm sense of what he perceives his players' values to be around the league, and I'm sure he'll just keep on gathering that intelligence. And our group will do their homework very diligently on simulating the ED, considering the various permutations and combinations and cap implications of Seattle's options from all angles in terms of sanity-checking that intelligence.

If you do all that legwork and end up being 90% confident that Seattle won't take him, then I don't see the point in protecting him just for the heck of it. I like Joey too, but if I'm almost certain he's not going to be taken, I'm down with rolling the dice and protecting a different forward instead. As Pd24 says above, the worst thing if you lose the dice roll is that we're left with Duchene-Granlund as our #1/2 centers, and maybe the door opens more to bringing Tomasino back to center sooner too. It's a very low-risk gamble.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

I know the stats don't show it, but Joey is very valuable to this team. Yes he's not $8m valuable but if we lose him, we will not be able to replace him. Haula is a great example. Statistically, we could lose Joey and sign Haula. But Haula is no Joey. Joey is the best passer on the team, best face-off guy, one-of-the-best PKers, and lately he's money in shootouts (He's gotten us 2 points in the past 2 weeks.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I know the stats don't show it, but Joey is very valuable to this team. Yes he's not $8m valuable but if we lose him, we will not be able to replace him. Haula is a great example. Statistically, we could lose Joey and sign Haula. But Haula is no Joey. Joey is the best passer on the team, best face-off guy, one-of-the-best PKers, and lately he's money in shootouts (He's gotten us 2 points in the past 2 weeks.

Haula has a better faceoff percentage than Johansen and more PK ice time with a better GA/60. Not sure I buy the argument that Johansen is better at either of those things at least during this season. Johansen is definitely the better passer but at the end of the day those passes aren't ending with pucks in nets.

Either way the question to me isn't Johansen versus Haula it is Johansen versus who we would likely lose by protecting him. Depending on who else you choose to protect that is likely Kunin or Jarnkrok. I'd much rather re-sign Granlund to take over Johansen's role and keep Kunin/Jarnkrok than lose them in the expansion draft. We likely can save some cap space by doing that too which is never a bad thing.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I know the stats don't show it, but Joey is very valuable to this team. Yes he's not $8m valuable but if we lose him, we will not be able to replace him. Haula is a great example. Statistically, we could lose Joey and sign Haula. But Haula is no Joey. Joey is the best passer on the team, best face-off guy, one-of-the-best PKers, and lately he's money in shootouts (He's gotten us 2 points in the past 2 weeks.

I dunno, have we learned nothing from the last month? We can't replace... Forsberg maybe? Josi? Ellis? Duchene? Tolvanen? I just saw us replace them all and not skip a beat. And Johansen himself too for 8 games this year. I don't think replacing a single hockey player is necessarily that insurmountable.

But I still think it's a moot point, because no matter how much we might prefer RyJo here, somebody looking in from the outside isn't going to have the same subjective view. They didn't live through the Good Times with him. All they see is a guy making $8M and putting up all kinds of numbers that are across the board equivalent to replacement-level players who they can pay a tiny fraction of the salary to. The point is very much that we can expose Joey... and we'll still get to keep him.

Poile could have put Johansen on waivers last week, and no team in the NHL would have taken him. That doesn't mean he should have put him on waivers. There was nothing to gain from doing so. But in the Expansion Draft he can expose Johansen, Seattle won't take him, and this time we do gain something from doing it... we get to protect an additional player.

 

[Scoresberg]

Haula has a better faceoff percentage than Johansen and more PK ice time with a better GA/60. Not sure I buy the argument that Johansen is better at either of those things at least during this season. Johansen is definitely the better passer but at the end of the day those passes aren't ending with pucks in nets.

Thing is, Joey puts up those numbers against other team's top lines. Put any other centerman from our team in Joey's position and it might get ugly fast.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Thing is, Joey puts up those numbers against other team's top lines. Put any other centerman from our team in Joey's position and it might get ugly fast.

Is that actually true that Johansen is primarily matching up against players top lines? PuckIQ shows him primarily matching up with middle tier players and having roughly the same ice time against competition tiers as Haula. Obviously all the caveats of advanced stats with those measures but I'm not sure Johansen is far and away playing tougher competition. On the flipside if you put Haula with the quality of linemates that Johansen gets he may be putting up better numbers too. I'm not trying to argue that Haula is a better player than Johansen but the fact that it is even close enough to be something you can make a reasonable argument for is a big concern.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Johansen still embodies a lot of very subjective wish-fulfillment to us as Preds fans. Finally, our big #1 center, the man, the legend, the myth, the guy we traded Seth Jones for, all that. And that's nice. I feel it too. But I don't have any reason to think that Ron Francis will. Not when he looks objectively at all the numbers over the past 2 years. Heck, he could save that $8M and... sign Seth Jones as a UFA after next season instead.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

So is it settled? We expose Joey and Duchene, and we resign Granny. The Poile-led Suck-So-Much-Nobody-Wants-You scheme is working beautifully for the expansion draft. Neither gets picked and both return to $8m form next year.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

So is it settled? We expose Joey and Duchene, and we resign Granny. The Poile-led Suck-So-Much-Nobody-Wants-You scheme is working beautifully for the expansion draft. Neither gets picked and both return to $8m form next year.

Only problem is I'm not sure either have ever been worth $8M a year...so yeah, that would be something alright.

 

[Armourboy]

Only problem is I'm not sure either have ever been worth $8M a year...so yeah, that would be something alright.

Joey earned it more or less in his first couple of playoffs. Say what you will about the man but that dude finds another gear in the playoffs. Don't know if he just can't physically maintain that over a long stretch or just isn't willing too but it's been one of his few saving graces.

 

[PredsV82]

Poilen isnt gonna let his prize UFA signing offer the last decade get claimed in the expansion draft.

We will go 4/4, protect FF, RV, Joey and Duchene

Then we will see if Francis will accept a 2nd round pick to take Sissons instead of Jarnkrok.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Poilen isnt gonna let his prize UFA signing offer the last decade get claimed in the expansion draft.

We will go 4/4, protect FF, RV, Joey and Duchene

Then we will see if Francis will accept a 2nd round pick to take Sissons instead of Jarnkrok.

This would not shock me. Or at least last week it would not have shocked me. But Poile sounded so rational in his post-deadline presser that I dare to hope he won't do that. Surely we would lose Kunin ahead of either Sissons or Jarnkrok, though.

Although if I'm Ron Francis I would be taking a serious look at the guys like Pitlick and Trenin as potential picks instead of the guys like Sissons and Jarnkrok. Just depends on how many "real players" he ends up with and how many youngsters they have room for, though.

 

[PredsV82]

This would not shock me. Or at least last week it would not have shocked me. But Poile sounded so rational in his post-deadline presser that I dare to hope he won't do that. Surely we would lose Kunin ahead of either Sissons or Jarnkrok, though.

Although if I'm Ron Francis I would be taking a serious look at the guys like Pitlick and Trenin as potential picks instead of the guys like Sissons and Jarnkrok. Just depends on how many "real players" he ends up with and how many youngsters they have room for, though.

I forgot about Kunin. Poile definitely has a dilemma.
Pitlick and Trenin are both still on ELCs arent they?

 

[Kat Predator]

I forgot about Kunin. Poile definitely has a dilemma.
Pitlick and Trenin are both still on ELCs arent they?

No. Neither is still on his ELC.

 

[Kat Predator]

Duchene had the exact same points line (13/29/42) in his first year as Turris did (13/29/42). His second year has been worse, albeit he's been on IR for quite a while now. Given that Turris never truly recovered his game after his own injury plagued second year as a Pred and what turned out to be zero interest in Turris at his Preds contract figure, one has to really wonder if Francis would possibly go out on a limb and have any interest in picking up that player+contract for the foreseeable future.

We all know he was a big splash free agent, has pedigree, and has been marketed as the face of the team. Still, at this point, it's not clear to me Duchene should be put back at C in our lineup. The 4 we have are playing solid two-way games, gettin' 'er dun. At LW we have Forsberg and Tolvanen on standby as well. So that looks like a potential logjam in the making too. At the moment we're suffering through a flash mob of forwards playing in the system and playing well. And that darn Poile could've saved everyone the angst by trading everyone at the deadline.

 

[Scoresberg]

Duchene’s play itself will protect him from Seattle. Poile would be an idiot if he used a protection slot on him.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I forgot about Kunin. Poile definitely has a dilemma.
Pitlick and Trenin are both still on ELCs arent they?

No, and both are nominally going to be available in the Expansion Draft.

But I also kind of think the way our young players have stepped up, we're pretty well insulated from just about any loss. Say Poile did go Forsberg-Arvy-Johansen-Duchene... then presumably we lose Kunin. And I like Kunin and he's fitting nicely now and is a good young player and all that. But he's not really driving anything for us, and we seem to have lots of guys ready to step into his role. In a way, if we did lose him, it'd be like paying Seattle a 2nd round pick to take Bonino in the draft!

Or we take my preferred option and expose Duchene for sure and possibly also Johansen... then you get to protect Kunin and maybe another forward. Maybe Seattle would like a more proven element from us like Jarnkrok or Sissons, maybe they'd prefer to look at a younger guy like Pitlick or Trenin, who knows. It still feels to me like we have the depth to skate right through any pick they made from us. As fans we'll probably miss anybody they take. But I think we saw this year that we now have so many players ready that it won't necessarily harm us any on the ice.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Duchene had the exact same points line (13/29/42) in his first year as Turris did (13/29/42). His second year has been worse, albeit he's been on IR for quite a while now. Given that Turris never truly recovered his game after his own injury plagued second year as a Pred and what turned out to be zero interest in Turris at his Preds contract figure, one has to really wonder if Francis would possibly go out on a limb and have any interest in picking up that player+contract for the foreseeable future.

We all know he was a big splash free agent, has pedigree, and has been marketed as the face of the team. Still, at this point, it's not clear to me Duchene should be put back at C in our lineup. The 4 we have are playing solid two-way games, gettin' 'er dun. At LW we have Forsberg and Tolvanen on standby as well. So that looks like a potential logjam in the making too. At the moment we're suffering through a flash mob of forwards playing in the system and playing well. And that darn Poile could've saved everyone the angst by trading everyone at the deadline.

It's pretty tough to argue right now for anywhere to put Duchene back in. It's not in place of Joey or Granlund, that's for sure. It's also not on the Herd line. I also don't have any complaint whatsoever about what Haula is doing now, but I guess that's the only slight option... for him at C anyway.

On wing I guess you could put him out in place of Cousins... or Pitlick (just because he's the New Kid - though he has looked good too). But he better look absolutely amazing in practice and really be 100% ready to go. I get that we threw Ellis back in there just as soon as he could go. And Forsberg and Tolvanen may qualify in the same category. But I don't think Duchene does anymore. It might even come down to letting him practice healthy for a little while until a spot opens up!

 

[OldFan]

It’s an expansion draft and no matter what Poile does with the protected list Preds are going to lose a good player and/or a good draft pick. And Preds lose an asset that they’ve likely got an investment in and we won’t like the result. It’s a bad situation but the one the NHL has chosen for expansion.
But y’all all know that. The real problem is that the NHL needs another west coast team like it needs a hole in their head and Preds will suffer from participating in stocking it.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I forgot about Kunin. Poile definitely has a dilemma.
Pitlick and Trenin are both still on ELCs arent they?

I think we just swallow the loss of a decent bottom 6 (I guess maybe mid-6 for Kunin/Jarnkrok) guy or a promising young guy like Trenin as is. It's not great to lose any of them, but production-wise none are a severe blow, not the way a guy like Neal was on paper. I think most of the teams that got clever and bribed Vegas into taking specific guys looked pretty stupid in the aftermath (Minny, Florida, Anaheim, even Pittsburgh). I'd rather not lose an additional asset on top of what we'll already lose.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Related and amusing, but also sad, Habs fans now seem to really want to see Weber left exposed...and also don't think there's a chance he gets selected.

 

[Scoresberg]

Related and amusing, but also sad, Habs fans now seem to really want to see Weber left exposed...and also don't think there's a chance he gets selected.

Father Time is unbeatable.. so far.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Shea Weber isn’t near as bad as Habs fans portray. i don’t like the length of course but his cap hit isn’t that bad. Habs fans have wanted to rebuild forever now and i would say quite honestly some of them are delusional by this point.

Weber has never been a great skater. He still knows where to be and everyone knows and respects when he is on the ice. He still has his shot.

I would take him over Ellis if it wasn’t for the length of the contract. Ellis’ game is easier to replace than Weber.

Duchene for weber. They wanted Duchene for 10 million before he signed with us (LOL). Then flip Ellis at the draft for a younger forward that could be as young as tolvanen or as “old” as Forsberg.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

OK, like with Vegas, we're going to lose a player we don't want to lose. Given that, assuming we go 4-4 and Joey and Duchene are protected, of the players that Seattle would seriously consider, who would you prefer they take?

Although I like him, I'd say Kunin. Don't want to lose Hook, Sissons, Yak, Grimaldi, Pitlick, or Carrier. I'd lose Cousins but I doubt Seattle takes him.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

OK, like with Vegas, we're going to lose a player we don't want to lose. Given that, assuming we go 4-4 and Joey and Duchene are protected, of the players that Seattle would seriously consider, who would you prefer they take?

Although I like him, I'd say Kunin. Don't want to lose Hook, Sissons, Yak, Grimaldi, Pitlick, or Carrier. I'd lose Cousins but I doubt Seattle takes him.

I would rather they take somebody besides Kunin, but if that was our protection scheme, then I think it's a slam dunk they take Kunin. Like, it's not even close.

He's a 23-year old #15 overall pick, cheap salary, retainable for the long term... they absolutely would not even consider anybody else on our roster if Kunin was available to them. Kunin is younger than Trenin, Pitlick, and Jeannot, for example.

But since I think there is 0% chance they take Duchene, and a 99% chance that Poile knows there is a 0% chance that they take Duchene... I think it's no-brainer also that we expose Duchene and protect Kunin. Now, the Joey thing, I think that's more up in the air and I could see him still being protected even if that wouldn't be my call today. But Duchene... I am going to go out on a limb and have faith in Poile doing the right thing here. He seems to be open to acknowledging his past mistakes lately.

But the cool thing is, even if we did lose Kunin, it's not going to be a disaster. Even the worst-case outcome barely scratches us. So it's pretty comfy spot for us to be in.