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Entry Draft Thread: Part V

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Mrb1p

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NotProkofievian said:
No, but he plays with Boldy and occasionally Caufield (usually Moynihan though). And Caufield plays with Zegras and Hughes. And they all play with York. Point being that he's always on the ice with top prospects. It's difficult to determine who is the straw stirring the drink, they're just all better than the competition and they always have the puck. The only exception on that team, IMO, is Hughes.

I'm not saying Turcotte's being carried, but doesn't it worry you that the only stand out on that team is the presumptive #1OA? How can you tell that these guys aren't just all late first talents playing together? For example, let's say you put Jamieson Rees on that team. What do you think he'd do and would he go from a late first to a top 10 talent all of a sudden?
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Weren't you worried of the same thing last year ? Or in 2015 ? I mean, yes this crop is good, but you see Turcotte on the ice, he doesn't need anyone around him to produce, and the same goes for Boldy and Hughes.

If you're going to go on about that, Caufield, York and Zegras make more sense. The three others just produce with whoever theyre playing with.

Turcotte plays with Vlasic Moynihan, from what Ive seen, and these two are not exactly world beater, or even decent prospects as of now. I'd be a lot more worried if Turcotte was just scoring goals like Wahlstrom last year. Instead he produces in any way you want and he does it with anyone on the ice, with limited icetime.

Also, Turcotte comes in 6th in PPG in the history of the program, I'd say thats kinda stand-out good, especially when you consider his play away from the puck. (Matthews, Eichel, Hughes, Kessel and Keller...)
 

NotProkofievian

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Mrb1p said:
Weren't you worried of the same thing last year ? Or in 2015 ? I mean, yes this crop is good, but you see Turcotte on the ice, he doesn't need anyone around him to produce, and the same goes for Boldy and Hughes.

If you're going to go on about that, Caufield, York and Zegras make more sense. The three others just produce with whoever theyre playing with.

Turcotte plays with Vlasic Moynihan, from what Ive seen, and these two are not exactly world beater, or even decent prospects as of now. I'd be a lot more worried if Turcotte was just scoring goals like Wahlstrom last year. Instead he produces in any way you want and he does it with anyone on the ice, with limited icetime.
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I think the argument applies equally with Boldy, Caufield, York, Zegras and Turcotte. None of these guys ''needs'' to be surrounded in order to produce. They're all quality prospects. But the fact that they're all playing with each other could be inflating their value.

With Zegras, his best ability is, undoubtedly, his passing. But it's significant that he's always passing to Hughes or Caufield or York. Jamieson Rees also makes all kinds of crazy passes. What if he had a Hughes to pass to? Similarly, what if Caufield were on, say, the Sudbury Wolves? Would he be valued way more than Nick Robertson as he is now? I'm not so sure. Or as we discussed before, would Boldy be valued way more than Dorofeyev if he were on Metallurg? IMO Dorofeyev is just clearly the better player. Or lets say you replaced Turcotte with McMichael, how different would things be?
 
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Mrb1p

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NotProkofievian said:
I think the argument applies equally with Boldy, Caufield, York, Zegras and Turcotte. None of these guys ''needs'' to be surrounded in order to produce. They're all quality prospects. But the fact that they're all playing with each other could be inflating their value.

With Zegras, his best ability is, undoubtedly, his passing. But it's significant that he's always passing to Hughes or Caufield or York. Jamieson Rees also makes all kinds of crazy passes. What if he had a Hughes to pass to? Similarly, what if Caufield were on, say, the Sudbury Wolves? Would he be valued way more than Nick Robertson as he is now? I'm not so sure. Or as we discussed before, would Boldy be valued way more than Dorofeyev if he were on Metallurg? IMO Dorofeyev is just clearly the better player. Or lets say you replaced Turcotte with McMichael, how different would things be?
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The problem here is that you compare players that are all fairly close together in skill and rankings, aside from Rees and Zegras.

I dont think Caufield is valued in a different tier than Robertson, or that Connor Mc is valued differently than Turcotte. In fact, I have all these guys save for Rees ranked five spots part more or less. I think you overvalue the effect of a good team. Obviously at the end of the day they benefit from each other, but the junior guys benefit from weaker competition and top heavy teams.

Personally, I dont watch the teams at all when evaluating a player. What a player can do ability wise is where its at. Im drafting a toolkit, not production.
 

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Turcotte for me. Plays more of a traditional playmaking center's game. Does all the "little things" right and is the one driving the bus even when he's had Zegras or Boldy next to him. While I do think Newhook has the potential to be a dangerous player, I'm not sure it's at center.

I don't doubt they benefit in some way from playing with other talented players. Same way Kotkaniemi would benefit from playing with Domi and Tatar instead of Lehkonen and Armia. Just how much exactly? I don't know. I guess this is where having a large sample comes into play.

The inverse is also entirely possible. Someone like Turcotte can be overshadowed by Hughes (which was specially true last year when he shined
most when Hughes got called up to U18s). Whereas someone like Newhook is the only top dog in Victoria, gets top minutes and prime offensive opportunities, doesn't have to share the puck since he's playing with a bunch of jabronis etc.
 
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Funny enough, the Grizzlies are one of the best team in the BCHL, and the best offensive one, should we use that against NH? Along with the weaker opposition and all. I dont think it makes sense to do so.
 

NotProkofievian

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Mrb1p said:
The problem here is that you compare players that are all fairly close together in skill and rankings, aside from Rees and Zegras.
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That's not a problem, it's my point: are players who are not really different in skill level being way overvalued because they play together and wreck shop as a result? To my eye they don't look that different. But the rankings differences are huge. Maybe not on MrB1p's rankings but at least on Bobby Mac's it is.

Turcotte 11 vs McMichael 26
Zegras 10 vs Rees 43
Boldy 7 vs Dorofeyev 65

My question is that let's say they were the same skill level, how would you know?

Mrb1p said:
I dont think Caufield is valued in a different tier than Robertson, or that Connor Mc is valued differently than Turcotte. In fact, I have all these guys save for Rees ranked five spots part more or less. I think you overvalue the effect of a good team. Obviously at the end of the day they benefit from each other, but the junior guys benefit from weaker competition and top heavy teams.

Personally, I dont watch the teams at all when evaluating a player. What a player can do ability wise is where its at. Im drafting a toolkit, not production.
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He literally is. The only publication that has them ranked similarly is one that I respect quite a bit, HP.com, but even they have Cole in their top 31, and Nick outside of it. Unilaterally, Cole is ranked as a mid first, and Nick is ranked as a late first early second.

And it's impossible to not watch the team. If you doubt this claim, I invite you to stop being poor and watch the U18s vs. Youngstown from January 15th. The NTDP team is so much better than Youngstown that it was a waste of 2 hours, IMO. I didn't even get anything of Jack Malone, even though he scored a goal. Youngstown just never had the puck.

Mrb1p said:
Funny enough, the Grizzlies are one of the best team in the BCHL, and the best offensive one, should we use that against NH? Along with the weaker opposition and all. I dont think it makes sense to do so.
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It doesn't make sense to do so because Campbell and Berger, while NHL prospects, are like...5th and 6th rounders. We're not talking about a team with 6 potential first round picks. Moreover this effect doesn't really apply if you actually watch Victoria. There is no question at all who the best player in the entire league is, whereas, with the exception of Hughes, it's often difficult to tell who the best player on a particular line is on the U18s.
 
Mrb1p

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I see a huge difference betwern Hughes/Turcotte and the rest of the roster, personally.

Also, since when do we care about consensus rankings?
 
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NotProkofievian said:
Haha, how amazing would it be if he sounded like a this hour has 22 minutes skit?
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The Newfie accent makes me laugh without fail, it's just so jovial

One of my old coaches was from the Rock...we would go to great lengths to piss him off, and was it ever spectacular when he would blow a gasket. Not sure if I've encountered a harder accent to understand than that of an angry Newfie.

 

G0bias

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MarkovsKnee said:
So we usually start the Early Bird Mock Draft the day after the trade deadline when picks are known and stable for awhile, since there aren't really trades til after the season at that point.

Are you guys still up for it? It's a week away.

I found 7 rounds long and draining, so I was considering reducing it to 5 rounds. Thoughts?
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Depends how many of us there is this year. If there's only like 12-15 of us maybe a quick 4-rounds with multiple teams each would be pretty fun.
 
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Jacob Pelletier is going to be one of the best players in this draft, amazing talent with very high IQ, great speed and very high compete level... Im totally sold on this kid...

Ryan Suzuki will drop late first, he is on my NDL...
 

NotProkofievian

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Pompeius Magnus said:
Definitely more of a second rounder. I do like that he's played a decent amount of games with the big team this year.
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I was just rewatching some of the 5 nations games and yeah...more of a 3rd+ guy for me. I suppose I should get the swedish junior league streams to make sure but it just doesn't seem like there's a whole lot there.

In other news, Tracey had another 3 point game. Couple nice accurate shots for @Mrb1p .
 

NotProkofievian

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Habs76 said:
I see no issues there. Guy's a really unique player. I wouldn't go as high as 21, but late first or early second seems appropriate. Not often such a talented player plays with that kind of an edge.
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Lol wut? Explain yourself. He's not that talented.
 
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