Post-Game Talk: End of the Season Press Conference + Exit Interviews

[sting101]

There will be teams that will have interest in a player of his size/skating ability who produced the way he did last year and who will cost as little as he will next season.

If you telegraph that you're really down on the player and definitely moving him, you aren't getting the same offers as if you take a strong position on the player.

Again, if you're buying a used car, are you coming in with the same offer to an old lady who doesn't know what it's worth and just wants it off her lawn as you are with a guy who knows what's up and what it's worth and makes it clear he's only selling for fair value and otherwise keeping it?

This is nonsense because if a player is being shopped then as a bidder you are at the mercy of the market

 

[MS]

This is nonsense because if a player is being shopped then as a bidder you are at the mercy of the market

If you don't think the negotiating ability of a GM can influence the value they get in trades, I really don't know what to say.

 

[Diversification]

There will be teams that will have interest in a player of his size/skating ability who produced the way he did last year and who will cost as little as he will next season.

If you telegraph that you're really down on the player and definitely moving him, you aren't getting the same offers as if you take a strong position on the player.

Again, if you're buying a used car, are you coming in with the same offer to an old lady who doesn't know what it's worth and just wants it off her lawn as you are with a guy who knows what's up and what it's worth and makes it clear he's only selling for fair value and otherwise keeping it?

His comments re: JV will have no bearing on what JV ultimately gets traded for unless there's limited interest in acquiring him. To the extent that other GMs have the impression that they can take JB to the cleaners on a trade, that's largely based on his track record with some noticeable whiffs - Gudbranson being the most notable. But if we're going to play that game, JB has also racked up some wins trade-wise: Vanek and the 1st for Miller, for instance.

I get what you're saying that JB should be more careful with his statements, but it's only going to affect things at the margins at best. More concerning is his tendency to fixate on certain players and pay a premium for them without the foresight as to the consequences for overpayment.

 

[sting101]

If you don't think the negotiating ability of a GM can influence the value they get in trades, I really don't know what to say.

that's not what i'm saying and i made an example earlier of how a GM can sell the dream of potential.

My point is that your example is nonsense because the used car sale you are referencing would have 20 other people standing in line to get that car from that old lady. Obviously the old lady (Benning) would take the offer they deemed to be the best.

Its the same thing with the stupid Miller should have been cheaper because TB was capped out. Its not like they were dumping a non value asset. Lots of teams would have taken him at a discounted price but because he was sold at fair market value teams would have passed due to other areas of bigger concern with their teams thus we were able to secure his services and TB was ok with it because they got future asset value and the cap space they needed.

 

[Rey]

If Virtanen gives you a Kapanen type deal. Do you take it?

 

[LuLover96]

If Virtanen gives you a Kapanen type deal. Do you take it?

100%. A change of scenery would be the best possible thing for him. Hometown pressures isn’t helping him.

 

[MS]

that's not what i'm saying and i made an example earlier of how a GM can sell the dream of potential.

My point is that your example is nonsense because the used car sale you are referencing would have 20 other people standing in line to get that car from that old lady. Obviously the old lady (Benning) would take the offer they deemed to be the best.

Its the same thing with the stupid Miller should have been cheaper because TB was capped out. Its not like they were dumping a non value asset. Lots of teams would have taken him at a discounted price but because he was sold at fair market value teams would have passed due to other areas of bigger concern with their teams thus we were able to secure his services and TB was ok with it because they got future asset value and the cap space they needed.

It isn't a perfect market with numerous buyers.

There might only be a couple teams that have the cap space/team needs/team plan to fit Virtanen (and whose GM/scouts like him) and make a legitimate offer. You need 1 team to really want him and want to pay high for him, and if that one team says 'hmmm, it doesn't seem like they really like him or plan on keeping him, we can probably lowball here' then that opportunity is gone.

If David Poile is dumping on Martin Erat and Washington gets the notion that they don't like him and there isn't much of a market there ... do they offer Filip Forsberg? Probably not.

 

[MS]

His comments re: JV will have no bearing on what JV ultimately gets traded for unless there's limited interest in acquiring him. To the extent that other GMs have the impression that they can take JB to the cleaners on a trade, that's largely based on his track record with some noticeable whiffs - Gudbranson being the most notable. But if we're going to play that game, JB has also racked up some wins trade-wise: Vanek and the 1st for Miller, for instance.

I get what you're saying that JB should be more careful with his statements, but it's only going to affect things at the margins at best. More concerning is his tendency to fixate on certain players and pay a premium for them without the foresight as to the consequences for overpayment.

Of course.

This isn't the biggest problem or even the 10th biggest problem right now. But it's an annoying and stupid pattern that has gone on for 6 years and accomplishes nothing positive. I'm not trying to paint these comments as some sort of ABSOLUTELY MASSIVE DEAL but they're dumb and they're the sort of things smart GMs don't do.

 

[Rey]

100%. A change of scenery would be the best possible thing for him. Hometown pressures isn’t helping him.

who replaces him? If Toffoli is gone too then who else is a candidate to be in the top six ? Is there a better cheap option until Pod gets here?

Do you try for a swap for Josh Anderson or a Lias Anderson?

I don’t think Hometown pressure is the problem. Everyone that went to school with him say he’s dumb as bricks and that’s the main issue. You need someone to keep him motivated. Bertuzzi didn’t get it together until 24.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

JB has also racked up some wins trade-wise: Vanek

is that really a win? isn't it just both teams got what they wanted? i mean, columbus certainly didn't lose that trade.

i think anybody would trade a fourth liner, no matter how good of a fourth liner he turns out to be a few years later, and a cap dump for a veteran rental scorer still scoring 20 goals a year.

and obviously columbus got what they wanted from vanek, as he scored at a 30 goal/65 pt pace once he got there and helped them to an epic post-deadline 13-4-2 run to squeak into the playoffs by one single point.

meanwhile, we got motte, who is also great, for something we no longer needed.

i feel like we're not really arguing semantics here, because your point seems to be if other GMs look at benning's track record and sees that he has all these trades that he lost, then we also have to look at all the trades where he also got the better of them, which largely don't exist. whereas what the situation really is would be a GM looking at benning and saying to himself, well at best i'm going to basically steal from him and at worst we'll get even value. so not a lot of incentive to not play hardball.

(ditto the miller trade. sure, miller has been a revelation for us, but it's not like TB didn't also get exactly what they needed. they dumped miller's cap and slipped that pick for blake coleman at the deadline, who after a slow start has seven points in his last eight games and looks to be exactly the cheap scoring depth they wanted to make a deep run. and he has one more year at under $2 million, coming off back-to-back 20 goal seasons.)

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

If David Poile is dumping on Martin Erat and Washington gets the notion that they don't like him and there isn't much of a market there ... do they offer Filip Forsberg? Probably not.

see: the burrows, hansen, and vanek trades. any of those guys was equal (hansen) or much better than erat, who had FOUR goals at the time of that trade.

 

[sting101]

It isn't a perfect market with numerous buyers.

There might only be a couple teams that have the cap space/team needs/team plan to fit Virtanen (and whose GM/scouts like him) and make a legitimate offer. You need 1 team to really want him and want to pay high for him, and if that one team says 'hmmm, it doesn't seem like they really like him or plan on keeping him, we can probably lowball here' then that opportunity is gone.

If David Poile is dumping on Martin Erat and Washington gets the notion that they don't like him and there isn't much of a market there ... do they offer Filip Forsberg? Probably not.

David Poile tried to talk Martin Erat out of trade demand ‘for basically two or three weeks’ before landing Filip Forsberg

Completely different situation. Why would Poile talk Erat down he was one of the best players of the franchise.

Bottom line is what will be offered vs what they think they can have keeping him. I don't believe they are just going to unload him for nothing but you guys can go on believing that some BS sell job at a year end presser will effect it....i don't

 

[I am toxic]

Only in bizarro world - and HFCanucks during the Benning era - would we see arguements that denigrating an asset you are looking to move can be anything but negative.

 

[RandV]

The difference is that there are 30+ Dealerships worth millions of dollars staring at the car for the last month.
Rather just be honest.

When there are 30 other teams/GM's then there's an opportunity for 30 different opinions and wants/needs. Trading in the NHL isn't a video game where there's a programmed set of rules and value, while there can be a lot of prep work from different people at the end it still comes down to two guys bartering for a better deal. Sometimes it's required to show your hand, like when a star player asks for a trade, but otherwise you want to keep your cards hidden as much as you can because maybe one of the other 30 GM's see's more worth than you do.

Like with Virtanen if you want to spin a positive out of him he played in the bottom six and the bottom six in general was disappointing, but he looked pretty good the few opportunities he got to play up. I'm guessing Benning probably singled him out here because he's comparing him directly to his Vegas counterpart Alex Tuch. We'll see what we get if we trade Virtanen, but note that Toronto just quietly shipped out Kasperi Kapanen for a 1st.

Also for the topic in general we did have a instance where we saw this effect we're talking about in action. In the summer of 2015 there was a bit of a goalie market where you had a number of teams shopping and 4 potential starters available: Lack, Talbot, Lehner, and Jones. You'll probably never get anyone to agree on value ranking at the time, though they were all in the same rough ballpark, with Lack and Talbot being a couple years older with some experience as backup and a positive stint (x2 for Lack) in taking over the starter role due to the injury, while Lehner and Jones were younger less seasoned but probably more potential.

Jim Benning is the only guy who publicly laid his cards out on the table, if I'm remembering correctly something to the like of 'we think Lack is the 2nd best goalie available and hope to get a 2nd rounder for him'. In the end the trades were:

Robin Lehner with Legwand (dump?) for 2015 1st (#21)
Martin Jones for Sean Kuraly and 2016 1st (#29)
Cam Talbot with 7th for 2nd, 3rd, 7th
Eddie Lack for 3rd and 7th

Before it's brought up Lack was much better at the time and his career fizzled out largely due to a chronic injury that was going to hit him. Anyway you can argue about value at the time but that makes about as good a data point as you're going to get.

 

[MS]

David Poile tried to talk Martin Erat out of trade demand ‘for basically two or three weeks’ before landing Filip Forsberg

Completely different situation. Why would Poile talk Erat down he was one of the best players of the franchise.

Bottom line is what will be offered vs what they think they can have keeping him. I don't believe they are just going to unload him for nothing but you guys can go on believing that some BS sell job at a year end presser will effect it....i don't

Erat was 32 years old and had 4 goals in 36 games. He shouldn't have been a very attractive asset.

Of course the situation wasn't identical, but the point holds. And holds for every trade. Doing things to indicate that you are down on a player or dead-set on taking whatever you can get potentially poisons your market and the offers you will get. And it's not a smart thing to be doing.

If Jim Benning had a track record of recouping excellent value for assets, nobody would be complaining and he'd be given a total pass on this. Instead the exact opposite is the case, and this pattern has repeated over and over again. To the extent that even the Ryan Miller* burner accounts here admit that the guy should have all responsibilities for negotiating trades/contracts stripped from him because he's so bad at it.

 

[MS]

Only in bizarro world - and HFCanucks during the Benning era - would we see arguements that denigrating an asset you are looking to move can be anything but negative.

Exactly. It's incredible that anyone can even argue this. This is literally the most basic thing imaginable.

 

[MS]

When there are 30 other teams/GM's then there's an opportunity for 30 different opinions and wants/needs. Trading in the NHL isn't a video game where there's a programmed set of rules and value, while there can be a lot of prep work from different people at the end it still comes down to two guys bartering for a better deal. Sometimes it's required to show your hand, like when a star player asks for a trade, but otherwise you want to keep your cards hidden as much as you can because maybe one of the other 30 GM's see's more worth than you do.

Like with Virtanen if you want to spin a positive out of him he played in the bottom six and the bottom six in general was disappointing, but he looked pretty good the few opportunities he got to play up. I'm guessing Benning probably singled him out here because he's comparing him directly to his Vegas counterpart Alex Tuch. We'll see what we get if we trade Virtanen, but note that Toronto just quietly shipped out Kasperi Kapanen for a 1st.

Also for the topic in general we did have a instance where we saw this effect we're talking about in action. In the summer of 2015 there was a bit of a goalie market where you had a number of teams shopping and 4 potential starters available: Lack, Talbot, Lehner, and Jones. You'll probably never get anyone to agree on value ranking at the time, though they were all in the same rough ballpark, with Lack and Talbot being a couple years older with some experience as backup and a positive stint (x2 for Lack) in taking over the starter role due to the injury, while Lehner and Jones were younger less seasoned but probably more potential.

Jim Benning is the only guy who publicly laid his cards out on the table, if I'm remembering correctly something to the like of 'we think Lack is the 2nd best goalie available and hope to get a 2nd rounder for him'. In the end the trades were:

Robin Lehner with Legwand (dump?) for 2015 1st (#21)
Martin Jones for Sean Kuraly and 2016 1st (#29)
Cam Talbot with 7th for 2nd, 3rd, 7th
Eddie Lack for 3rd and 7th

Before it's brought up Lack was much better at the time and his career fizzled out largely due to a chronic injury that was going to hit him. Anyway you can argue about value at the time but that makes about as good a data point as you're going to get.

Yup, I remember those Lack quotes too.

Dumped on the guy he was trying to sell, then got way less for him than other teams got for goalies badly outperformed by Lack the previous year.

 

[BB06]

How the frick is Tanev "washed".

This team without Tanev is much, much worse.

Did you see him clearing pucks in the Vegas series? Dude was looking like Sutter out there. His analytics also heavily declined. Hughes carried him this year and Canucks would do well to sign someone young and better. I’d prefer Dylan DeMelo.

 

[bossram]

Amongst defensive centers, the best asset in UFA is NJ's Kevin Rooney, who is a high-end 4th line center/PK ace (NJ was the 26th ranked team with the #7 PK despite not very good goaltending) who will cost next to nothing because he has no reputation or pedigree whatsoever. If you could get someone to take the corpse of Jay Beagle off of us, he'd be the perfect replacement.

However, I don't think this management group has the slightest inkling of a notion that moving Beagle/Roussel/Sutter types is a good idea, and believes those bad players were huge parts of our success in the last month.

There aren't really a lot of pure #3 centers in the UFA pool. There are a few interesting wingers who probably wouldn't cost much. Zemgis Gergensons is an interesting guy - young UFA who created terrific results from tough minutes on a bad team last year.

For purely defensive-oriented, bottom-six options, Rooney and Girgensons are pretty interesting. They'd be pretty cheap too.

But like you said, Benning has locked into Beagle because "leadership" or something and we're stuck with his corpse for 2 more seasons.

 

[MS]

For purely defensive-oriented, bottom-six options, Rooney and Girgensons are pretty interesting. They'd be pretty cheap too.

But like you said, Benning has locked into Beagle because "leadership" or something and we're stuck with his corpse for 2 more seasons.

Rooney is basically Jay Beagle in like, 2013.

But the irony, of course, is that Jim Benning would have had absolutely zero interest in Jay Beagle in 2013 when he was actually establishing himself as a good bottom-6 player and excellent value for his team. Not a high draft pick? Doesn't make boards go boom? No Cup ring? No interest. But then when Beagle is in his mid-30s and about to fall off a cliff but blocks some shots for a Cup winner, now Benning figures out he exists.

 

[Hyzer]

Rooney is basically Jay Beagle in like, 2013.

But the irony, of course, is that Jim Benning would have had absolutely zero interest in Jay Beagle in 2013 when he was actually establishing himself as a good bottom-6 player and excellent value for his team. Not a high draft pick? Doesn't make boards go boom? No Cup ring? No interest. But then when Beagle is in his mid-30s and about to fall off a cliff but blocks some shots for a Cup winner, now Benning figures out he exists.

Remember MS, Beagle got replaced on the Capitals by Nic Dowd, who we had on our team previously, for a cool cap hit of 700k iirc.

Horrific asset management and its finally come to roost about how f***ed we are.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Did you see him clearing pucks in the Vegas series? Dude was looking like Sutter out there. His analytics also heavily declined. Hughes carried him this year and Canucks would do well to sign someone young and better. I’d prefer Dylan DeMelo.

to the extent that tanev looked more worn down in the vegas series, every single player on the team did. the entire team had trouble clearing pucks. but i think what we really saw there was tanev was overworked, because myers was either out of the lineup or taking lots of penalties, so tanev had really high PK usage. he's #1 in PKTOI/G among players that made the third round, and 28 seconds ahead the next highest guy on our team, edler.

he was still tanev, still had the best stick on our d, the best positioning by a mile, still the most effective at stripping the puck. basically, his timing, his fundamentals are as good as they've ever been. as he ages, i want his numbers to go down to #4 on our d, maybe even #5 eventually, but that's not a guy i want to give up in the near future.

to put it another way, when one or a few of OJ, rathbone, rafferty, woo, and maybe even tryamkin enter the lineup, who do you want them learning the fundamentals of NHL defending from? it's not edler or myers.

at the same time, which player do you want taking on way too minutes and being overextended on our right side? it's not myers or stecher.

 

[BB06]

to the extent that tanev looked more worn down in the vegas series, every single player on the team did. the entire team had trouble clearing pucks. but i think what we really saw there was tanev was overworked, because myers was either out of the lineup or taking lots of penalties, so tanev had really high PK usage. he's #1 in PKTOI/G among players that made the third round, and 28 seconds ahead the next highest guy on our team, edler.

he was still tanev, still had the best stick on our d, the best positioning by a mile, still the most effective at stripping the puck. basically, his timing, his fundamentals are as good as they've ever been. as he ages, i want his numbers to go down to #4 on our d, maybe even #5 eventually, but that's not a guy i want to give up in the near future.

to put it another way, when one or a few of OJ, rathbone, rafferty, woo, and maybe even tryamkin enter the lineup, who do you want them learning the fundamentals of NHL defending from? it's not edler or myers.

at the same time, which player do you want taking on way too minutes and being overextended on our right side? it's not myers or stecher.

I'd like to add someone young in Free agency. I feel like DeMelo is the perfect candidate.

 

[xtra]

I mean wouldn’t the easiest way to determine if Benning was right would be to show multiple other (competent) gms talking down the upcoming rfas that they need to trade?

 

[MS]

I'd like to add someone young in Free agency. I feel like DeMelo is the perfect candidate.

Demelo would be a fine target here, but I'd be shocked if Benning had any interest.

Jim Benning targets virtually always fall into 1 of 3 groups :

1) Overpayment for overrated 'name' player (Myers, Eriksson, Sutter, Miller, etc.)

2) Overpayment for grit/toughness/Cup rings (Prust, Dorsett, Beagle, Roussel, etc.)

3) Overpayment for busting prospect that Benning/Weisbrod really liked as a teenager (Pouliot, Granlund, Baertschi, etc.)

Or some combination of the above 3. Gudbranson sorta fit all 3 categories.

Demelo is a late-round pick who had a mid-20s breakout as a high-IQ defensive defender on a bad team. Isn't big. Doesn't hit hard. No big hockey card stats. No mean streak. No Cup ring.

There has never been any player linked to the organization who fit this sort of profile. I'd be shocked if they had significant interest in this sort of under-the-radar moneypuck late bloomer.

Conversely, overpaying for a 'name' Tyson Barrie who put up great hockey card stats but would be a terrible fit here would be classic Benning.