Player Discussion Elias Pettersson | Quinn Hughes - Contract Discussion Thread
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If they make an offer sheet it won’t be with this year’s picks.
Just look at their prospect list and roster. With Petey they will have 2 1st line C. They already have Panarin, LaF, Kakko, and then a 2nd C to bump down to 3rd. Their D is loaded with a legit 1 and 2 and enough high end prospects to have like 3-4 more top4 D. Their team would be crazy loaded with Petey and those 4 1st rounders would be closer to 2nd rounders.
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Blue and Green
Out to lunch
- Dec 17, 2017
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If you're right about this, Hughes might get $6M+ because he has easily outpointed the likes of McAvoy and Sergachev, and has played more minutes than Sergachev, too. In my view Sergachev plays behind Hedman which reduces his total TOI and his PP opportunity; he's already a good second-pair defenceman on arguably the best franchise in the league. McAvoy, I would think it mattered that a guy at that age (21) was playing the heavy minutes really well on a perennially good team that came within a game of winning the Cup in the season before he signed the bridge deal, but I could be wrong on that as I haven't perused the history of young defenceman contracts beyond the past two years.
Boeser got $5.875M x 3 in essentially the same situation, which would be more like $5.7M x 3 given the flat cap scenario. I'd be disappointed if Hughes got more than that on the same term and I'd prefer to see him closer to $5M.
Peen
Rejoicing in a Benning-free world
- Oct 6, 2013
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Smart teams don't overpay for pure point getters who are black holes on defense anymore.
There's another world where they outbid Toronto for Barrie and we have Barrie for another 6 years at 7MM if those reported figures were accurate.
They need to be careful here because if Hughes doesn't improve his 5 on 5 game, he isn't going to be worth the kind of figures he expects to get past a bridge.
There's another world where they outbid Toronto for Barrie and we have Barrie for another 6 years at 7MM if those reported figures were accurate.
They need to be careful here because if Hughes doesn't improve his 5 on 5 game, he isn't going to be worth the kind of figures he expects to get past a bridge.
Hughes and Makar have no leverage aside from not playing. No offersheet threat.
mcAvoy I would rather have than Hughes. So contract comparable it’s a good base as McAvoy also couldn’t get an Offersheet either.
McAvoy though has taken some hard hits and missed games. With like 2 concussions so far. So do wonder about his long term future in rmterms of durability.
mcAvoy I would rather have than Hughes. So contract comparable it’s a good base as McAvoy also couldn’t get an Offersheet either.
McAvoy though has taken some hard hits and missed games. With like 2 concussions so far. So do wonder about his long term future in rmterms of durability.
Blue and Green
Out to lunch
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The offer sheet probably matters a little but my guess is that the bigger difference is the extra year of not being eligible for arbitration as a 10.2 (c) compared to RFA.
Yep. Only real benefit of burning that elc year was money. Rather than playing on an elc you get more base salary but if you are a top performer you get a chance to hit performance bonuses as well on the elc.
Offers no further benefit towards ufa or arbitration eligibility.
John Johnson
Registered User
- Apr 11, 2019
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Lol @ some people on the main boards who think Petey isn't worth 7m a year.
Petey IMO is the more straight forward signing given the deals that Point and Barzal got for bridge contracts. Especially Barzal since it was signed post covid. Barzal, playing behind Tavares put up 85 points. But since assuming the 1C position, he's more of a 65 point pace C over 82 games, which is less than Petey, but Barzal plays on a much better Defensively structured team. Slow start last season plus the injury didn't allow Petey to up his value from 19-20 season.
Hughes is the contract that is more difficult to figure out. Have the 3 guys in McAvoy, Werenski, Sergachev who signed bridge deals around $5 mill per. Provorov for term got $6.75 mill per for 6 years, but his style of play is more of a matchup big minutes guy vs Hughes who is a PMD point guy.
Then for Hughes, there is the Makar, Heiskenan comps. Dahlin struggled this season, so that drops him down a bit in the comps. Makar is in another range IMO and even Heiskenan IMO who plays the best all around game.
I think Makar with a Calder plus Norris nomination can push around $7 million (but likely takes something in the high $6 mill like similar to Provorov's AAV if he does a bridge deal) as he's more impactful than the trio who signed bridge deals at $5 million. If Makar goes term, he'd be looking at an AAV higher than Chabot's $8 mill per.
Heiskenan, likely high $5 mill to $6 mill for a bridge. Not as good this past season, when compared to the monster playoffs he had in the bubble. Dallas as a team suffered from the Covid outbreak to start the season.
Again, I think budgeting $13 mill for the 2, though I do expect it to be closer to $12.5 mill when it's all said and done is the right way to go, assuming they end up with bridge deals of 3 years. If Hughes wants to end up a year from UFA like Petey and does 4 years, then he can push closer to $6 mill.
So...
Petersson
$7M x 3 Years
Hughes
$5.5M x 3 Years
or
$6M x 4 Years
Something like that?
Nucker101
Foundational Poster
- Apr 2, 2013
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I’d be eager to lock up EP long term, a bridge for Hughes makes sense.
Something around there. Plus or minus $250k on the AAV. Think Hughes for 3 years is around $5.2-5.5, while a 4 year deal is $5.75-$6 mill.
Petey may end up with an extra $100-200k.
but combined should be $13 mill max.
rypper
21-12-05 it's finally over.
- Dec 22, 2006
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Me too. I think Pettersson is on the verge of breaking out and if we can get him locked in for cheap now that would be a real win.
If Petey believes he will break out then it’s more wise for him to prove it then sign for term. Doubtful he could secure a deal that would match what you would consider a breakout now.
honestly big picture it’s better for the player to do a 5/6 year term now because they then hit ufa around 28 so getting max term on the next deal takes them to 36. Versus doing bridge and hitting rfa again at 25 the. Doing max term then to age 33. At that point relying on health to secure the next contract with some term on it.
Team wise you max out on prime years doing bridge and then max term. But the risk is that the player can always opt for arbitration if they want to get out of the team.
You are right about the picks. But that's a huge gamble that I don't see the Rangers making. There's certainly a lot of "potential" on that roster but the 1st line C and 2nd C you are referring to are pending UFAs. Fox will need a new contract. Basically, after next season, the Rangers will have cap space but they will also need players to use that cap space on if they aren't bringing back guys.
11.6M+ for Panarin, $6.5M for Kreider, ~$11M+ for Petey and Zibanejad ain't accepting a home town discount.
I think the point is that it’s not that ridiculous to assume Petey won’t get a offer sheet. Yeah it’s bold but who knows. Seems like Nolan wants them to compete now and giving up picks to Petey seems less risky than trading a pick, roster player and a blue chip prospect for Eichel who needs neck surgery and might be out for like months.
I think NYR could make it work if they wanted to. They can always trade away Strome or bridge all the RFAs they have. They don’t have that many players signed and all the rfas outside of Fox don’t have that much leverage.
The reason offer sheets are rare is that they also will impact your future rfa negotiations. If the rangers go after Petey with an AAV in the $9/$10 mill range what is Fox going to ask for when he’s up next season. He has a Norris nomination under his belt and if he repeats it and sees the rangers pay a premium for Petey he may then demand top of the line Dman money. Teams are careful not to throw the pay scale out of whack.
the Aho offersheet of $8.45 mill for 5 years. Little high but not outrageous. Aho went from 49 to 65 to 83 points during his elc. Point and tkachuk are around $7 mill on 3 year deals. And both guys have like $9 mill QO for their final rfa year. So adding that final rfa year for them pushes their AAV to around $7.5 mill for 4 years. puts that ufa year at $12.45 mill.
So the offersheet was a premium but not over the top considering they needed to make it high enough to make Carolina think about it. But it was more the front loaded SB that was going to make Carolina pass and they didn’t.
I think a lot of it depends on execution. They can negotiate with Kakko and Fox this summer so they can try to get their house in order before giving an offer sheet. If they give a FU 12-13m 1 year offer sheet then it’s hard for it to be a comparable because the GM can argue that it’s a tactic to just get a player and the contract they sign to a long term becomes the real comparable.
I think GMs value relationship and the NHL being an old boys club is the reason why we don’t see offersheets. Nevermind the fact majority of GMs aren’t really creative thinkers and have limited understanding when it comes to asset management.
Who are the GMs that gave out Offersheets in the 2000's? And where are they now?
Bergevin to Aho - remains to be seen what will happen to Bergevin after his tenure in Montreal.
Feaster to ROR - bad offersheet because had the Avs passed on it, ROR needed to clear waivers first IIRC. That was the MacKinnon draft year. But in the end Monahan plus would have been worth it. Feaster rejoined TB in 2014 in a community relations position, not hockey operations. Maybe a thank you for the Cup in 2004.
Gillis to Backes. Gillis hasn't worked in the NHL since.
Pleau with STL on Bernier in retalitation. Pleau moved onto a Senior advisor role later
Lowe for Penner and Vanek. Lowe only worked for the Oilers.
Holmgren for Weber. Holmgren still President for the Flyers.
Ron Wilson for Hjarlmalsson. Wilson still GM of SJ
Bobby Clarke for Kesler - Clarke stepped down as GM a couple of months later but returned as a SR VP role.
GMs who have given out OS didn't land with another club in a hockey operations position. they remained with their club in another capacity like Holmgren and Clarke and even Pleau, but again that was a retaliation move.
Only Feaster landed with another team and that was for community relations.
Ron Wilson is 66, so I don't know if he'll be offered a GM role after SJ. He'd probably be moved up to President or a SR advisor role to a younger new GM if he wants to.
The reason for a lack of offer sheets isn't necessarily because of the OBC effect, it's because they don't work in a league with a salary cap. If you're willing to sign a player for that amount of salary/term, then chances are the other team is as well. All you accomplish is forcing a team to pay their player more than they intended, souring business relations, and driving up future player salaries of comparable players.
If a team offered Pettersson $13 million a year, then yes, chances are Vancouver won't match... but then you're stuck with a vastly overpaid player crippling your cap while losing draft picks for it. Sign him for $9 million which won't hurt as bad and Vancouver will just match, and now when your comparable player's contract is up he's going to ask for what you offered Pettersson. There's just no upside.
If a team offered Pettersson $13 million a year, then yes, chances are Vancouver won't match... but then you're stuck with a vastly overpaid player crippling your cap while losing draft picks for it. Sign him for $9 million which won't hurt as bad and Vancouver will just match, and now when your comparable player's contract is up he's going to ask for what you offered Pettersson. There's just no upside.
Is your point that GMs don't do it because they might get blacklisted? I am not sure if that happens, I think it's more they don't want to damage their relationship with the GM on the receiving end. If you are Chris Drury, are you going to really worry about having damaged relationship with Benning? Benning is one of the worst GMs in the league and won't land another GM job or AGM job in the league. Hell if he makes that offer sheet and Benning can't match because of the bad cap, that will be the nail in Benning's coffin.
I think that depends on the conversations you have with Petey in the background. If you sign Petey to a 1 year 13M offersheet but you had talks regarding a future extension in the 9M range, then that would make sense. Also making such a ridiculous number makes it obvious that this is a significant outlier and won't mess up RFA arbitration.
I think normally teams have enough cap room to absorb whatever offersheet that comes their way. It's not often that a team with a messed up cap has 2 superstar players coming off of ELC.
Blue and Green
Out to lunch
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Using a one-year offer sheet while making a side deal on a lesser future contract with a player that is still the property of another team... Bettman would make sure that the offending team, player and agent all felt a great deal of pain for that one.
Blue and Green
Out to lunch
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"So, Elias, why are you signing an extension for $9M x 4 when you could keep signing a $13M QO each year or cash in with immediate UFA status if they don't give you a QO?"
There is no way it would stand up. Not with Bettman, not with an arbitrator.
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