Player Discussion Elias Pettersson, Pt. XII

[Bojack Horvatman]

If it takes 8m+ to bridge Pettersson, I would rather sign him long-term if he signs for 9.5-10.5m.

 

[Jay Cee]

If it takes 8m+ to bridge Pettersson, I would rather sign him long-term if he signs for 9.5-10.5m.

There is an actual person on the other side of the negotiating table. I am sure if his bridge number was 8 he would see a slightly higher long term offer coming.

 

[bandwagonesque]

Other than the COVID and other uncertainties, I fail to see why we would wish to sign Petterson or Hughes to bridge contracts. Why should we be pinning our hopes on 2023 and 2023 only?

The reality is that most teams are close to the cap most of the time and that many elite young players sign bridge deals. And yes, it's too bad Jay Beagle and Loui Eriksson are on the payroll for two more seasons, but there's very little Benning can do about it now.

 

[canuckking1]

Who signs an 8M bridge deal? It's not happening. He's getting 7 on a bridge or 9-10 long term book it. He could go on to finish top 5 in scoring which would change everything though.

 

[4Twenty]

Who signs an 8M bridge deal? It's not happening. He's getting 7 on a bridge or 9-10 long term book it. He could go on to finish top 5 in scoring which would change everything though.

He already has top 10 forward impact on goals and goals for %. He’s elite as they get. Matthew Tkachuk got a $7m bridge. Are you saying Elias is not more valuable than Matthew Tkachuk?

 

[elitepete]

He's getting the Point bridge contract IMO. Slight higher so 7X3.

Hughes is getting a bit more than Mcavoy/Werenski at 5.5X3

Why the f*** would we give him a bridge contract?

 

[elitepete]

I would try to get him on 10-11mx7-8. If you bridge him for 3 years, he’s going to get 13m-14m on his next contract.

*And only reason I think we could get him for as low as 10 is because of the stagnating cap.

 

[timw33]

Anything other than a 7 or 8 year deal for Pettersson is a disaster.

 

[4Twenty]

He's the tastiest looking opportunity for an offersheet as I've seen.

If Vancouver is offering him the lowball offers canuckking1 is putting down, I'm pretty sure nearly all the teams in the league would be interested in an offersheet. Anything less than $8.726m AAV is only a 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd.

Which teams wouldn't trade that tiny package for an elite, 22 year old 1C?

If you're the Rangers, who've hoarded picks and prospects and got extremely lucky in the draft lottery, are you really scared about even a max compensation offersheet to Pettersson?

You basically add the elusive 1C in his prime (pretty sure, they traded up in 2017 for him, he just didn't fall) to two recent top winger prospects, have a loaded D, two quality young D's.

Lowballing Elias, is only going to leave the Canucks exposed. I just hope they get at least one UFA year on the deal.

 

[Catamarca Livin]

He's the tastiest looking opportunity for an offersheet as I've seen.

If Vancouver is offering him the lowball offers canuckking1 is putting down, I'm pretty sure nearly all the teams in the league would be interested in an offersheet. Anything less than $8.726m AAV is only a 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd.

Which teams wouldn't trade that tiny package for an elite, 22 year old 1C?

If you're the Rangers, who've hoarded picks and prospects and got extremely lucky in the draft lottery, are you really scared about even a max compensation offersheet to Pettersson?

You basically add the elusive 1C in his prime (pretty sure, they traded up in 2017 for him, he just didn't fall) to two recent top winger prospects, have a loaded D, two quality young D's.

Lowballing Elias, is only going to leave the Canucks exposed. I just hope they get at least one UFA year on the deal.

The Canucks easily match those deals, so why bother?? The Canucks are not going to let Petterson walk to another team and Petterson shows no interest in going to another team. Swedish players are loyal if all is close to even they stay. Remember people saying Boeser might stay at ND to be free agent. When the only reason to go to ND is to turn pro. This take of an offer sheet may be dumber.

 

[4Twenty]

The Canucks easily match those deals, so why bother?? The Canucks are not going to let Petterson walk to another team and Petterson shows no interest in going to another team. Swedish players are loyal if all is close to even they stay. Remember people saying Boeser might stay at ND to be free agent. When the only reason to go to ND is to turn pro. This take of an offer sheet may be dumber.

Aho showed no interest in signing for another team, until they sent him a deal.

My point is comparing the 3x7 bridge deals and how completely unrealistic they are. $21m and $40m+ aren't all that close. If the Canucks are just going to match an offersheet, then it's dumb to lowball him with bridge deals, to make up for bad previous bad spending.

Assuming all Swedish people are the same is dumb. Not sure what the Boeser thing has to do with anything?

If Vancouver is offering a bridge deal at $20-25m vs an offersheet that offers $80m, it's night and day.

You don't think Pettersson is a good candidate? You think it's smart for the Canucks to get the terms dictated on the extension by another team.

The point is Pettersson is one of the most valuable assets in the league right now, and many teams would love to add him, and I think many would have absolutely no qualms about the compensation.

I think the real dumb look is thinking he's just going to sign on whatever Jimbo puts down.

 

[clay]

Sign him to long term deal at $9M per year and call it a day.

 

[timw33]

Aho showed no interest in signing for another team, until they sent him a deal.

I think one of the biggest appeals in that Aho offer sheet (for Aho himself) is that he'll be a 26 year old UFA looking at a guaranteed 7-year top dollar deal while already having $42MM in the bank from his current deal.

Like, yeah, Vancouver is likely to match every offer sheet that gets thrown his way, but what if it's a 4 year deal that walks him to free agency?

 

[vancityluongo]

If you can get Pettersson long term for less than what Matthews got you take that and run.

Anything less than $10M would be phenomenal.

 

[Diversification]

Anything other than a 7 or 8 year deal for Pettersson is a disaster.

I tend to agree with this. A bridge deal is not going to happen.

That said, I can kind of understand the optimism. A flat cap, a globally depressed economy and the uncertainty that surrounds it, who knows how that will affect the market and how even an elite young player like EP gets priced in?

 

[canuckking1]

The cap is staying flat for the next 6 years. What's the point of a long term deal if you aren't taking advantage of an escalating cap? The best players are getting 10-12M dollars now and the best players will be getting 10-12M 3 years from now.

 

[4Twenty]

The cap is staying flat for the next 6 years. What's the point of a long term deal if you aren't taking advantage of an escalating cap? The best players are getting 10-12M dollars now and the best players will be getting 10-12M 3 years from now.

So why do you think he’ll not want to be paid like the best players?

You proposed he’d sign a 3 year bridge for $7m.

Why would he do that?

The point of a long term deal is clearly security.

6 years at $10m+ is $60m+
you suggested 3 years at $7m that’s $21m


almost 1/3 the guaranteed rate of the 6 year deal.

What do you even mean by not taking advantage of an escalating cap? For the team anything longer than 5 buys ufa years. That’s the advantage.

 

[ChilliBilly]

So why do you think he’ll not want to be paid like the best players?

You proposed he’d sign a 3 year bridge for $7m.

Why would he do that?

The point of a long term deal is clearly security.

6 years at $10m+ is $60m+
you suggested 3 years at $7m that’s $21m


almost 1/3 the guaranteed rate of the 6 year deal.

What do you even mean by not taking advantage of an escalating cap? For the team anything longer than 5 buys ufa years. That’s the advantage.

Not quite sure what your point is. I am hoping $8.5 M x 8 but expecting a bit more.

And in these days nothing is "guaranteed". If I was EP I would take the security of as long a deal as I could.

On top of that, I would try to get LE type contract where a lot of it is signing bonuses.

And as a note of interest, does anyone know if Escrow and deferments apply to signing bonuses?

 

[4Twenty]

Not quite sure what your point is. I am hoping $8.5 M x 8 but expecting a bit more.

And in these days nothing is "guaranteed". If I was EP I would take the security of as long a deal as I could.

On top of that, I would try to get LE type contract where a lot of it is signing bonuses.

And as a note of interest, does anyone know if Escrow and deferments apply to signing bonuses?

My point is he’s getting $10m plus a season and the longer the contract the higher the number. The team won’t get the normal advantages of the cap rising and allowing the big contracts to take less percentage of the cap as it ages but the best player is going to get paid his money regardless. All the contracts signed recently won’t get that advantage but $11m out of $81.5m for an elite player is reasonable if they get UFA years. That’s my beef with Matthews’ deal. 5 years until UFA got max AAV and mostly all signing bonus. They didn’t get him to concede anything. I think if the price is reasonable Elias will sell us UFA years. 6 years is my minimum.

I think if you want to bridge him you’re leaving yourself exposed to another club dictating the terms of the deal for you.

 

[Diversification]

The cap is staying flat for the next 6 years. What's the point of a long term deal if you aren't taking advantage of an escalating cap? The best players are getting 10-12M dollars now and the best players will be getting 10-12M 3 years from now.

This is the dynamic that may depress his AAV. Yes, EP is a star player. Yes, there are only so many 1Cs in the league. But, without a rising cap, it's tough to see how he or any other star player is going to land an ever-escalating dollar amount.

He's either going to go for a shorter term deal with the assumption that the cap will start rising when he next negotiates, or he'll take the longer term stability, but lower caphit.

I'm guessing it will be the latter. Maybe something like 9.75-10M/year on a 7-year deal.

 

[4Twenty]

This is the dynamic that may depress his AAV. Yes, EP is a star player. Yes, there are only so many 1Cs in the league. But, without a rising cap, it's tough to see how he or any other star player is going to land an ever-escalating dollar amount.

He's either going to go for a shorter term deal with the assumption that the cap will start rising when he next negotiates, or he'll take the longer term stability, but lower caphit.

I'm guessing it will be the latter. Maybe something like 9.75-10M/year on a 7-year deal.

I don’t think it’s ever escalating though.

Matthews signed for 14.3% of the cap
Aho signed for a little over 10%

I can’t imagine a world these aren’t the comparables. You also have Eichel at 13.3%.


$81.5m is still a higher ceiling than all these guys signed under.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

The cap is staying flat for the next 6 years. What's the point of a long term deal if you aren't taking advantage of an escalating cap? The best players are getting 10-12M dollars now and the best players will be getting 10-12M 3 years from now.

Just looking at some of the big contracts that were signed this summer like Peitroangelo, there was not not a lot of money the first two years, then full price after that. Pietroangelo is getting paid 5m the first two years, then 8m, then over 12m for two years, then 8.8m.

The advantage of a long-term deal is that the first 2 or so years can bring the average cap hit down. If you bridge him you don't get that benefit. Bridging probably isn't the right move as we still have bad contracts that will be there for half/third of the bridge contract. We should only bridge Pettersson if we are a legitimate SC contender when they are on bridge contracts.

 

[Regal]

I don’t think it’s ever escalating though.

Matthews signed for 14.3% of the cap
Aho signed for a little over 10%

I can’t imagine a world these aren’t the comparables. You also have Eichel at 13.3%.


$81.5m is still a higher ceiling than all these guys signed under.

But those contracts were signed under the assumption the cap would rise. That matters as much as the cap in the season they first signed.

 

[4Twenty]

But those contracts were signed under the assumption the cap would rise. That matters as much as the cap in the season they first signed.

Fair enough. I just want to pay him enough to keep him before other teams can offersheet him. I think it would cost close to Eichel money for me to give up the opportunity of seeing what he’d possibly see as an offersheet. The Rangers look like a prime candidate imo.

 

[ChilliBilly]

Just looking at some of the big contracts that were signed this summer like Peitroangelo, there was not not a lot of money the first two years, then full price after that. Pietroangelo is getting paid 5m the first two years, then 8m, then over 12m for two years, then 8.8m.

The advantage of a long-term deal is that the first 2 or so years can bring the average cap hit down. If you bridge him you don't get that benefit. Bridging probably isn't the right move as we still have bad contracts that will be there for half/third of the bridge contract. We should only bridge Pettersson if we are a legitimate SC contender when they are on bridge contracts.

The reason to give up money in the 1st 2 years is that they know that they are not getting paid the full amount those years ... this year I am guessing that players will get about 60% of their contract amounts.Hopefully next year we will be back to near normal, though the hit to the economy is going to damage ticket sales.