I've constructed my argument a number of times, you don't seem to be able to grasp it or care to acknowledge it. Elite players drive offense more than average players, how is that so hard to grasp?
Players like Mackinnon, Eichel, Matthews, Pettersson, Marner will always have higher on ice shooting %'s than average 2nd line players. Why not conduct an argument for guys like Marner, Matthews, Eichel etc and look at their XGF%.
Two things.
One: Elite players will generally have higher oiSH% than average 2nd line players. Yes, this is accurate. However, Pettersson's oiSH% (and his sh%) are both above and beyond what even elite players are generally at. His 5V5 oiSH% is 12.13%, his 5V5 SH% is 25%, and his overall SH% is 26.6%. Let's compare this to the career numbers of some notable superstars.
Player | 5V5 oiSH% | 5V5 SH% | SH% |
Elias Pettersson | 12.13% | 25% | 26.60% |
Nathan MacKinnon | 8.88% | 8.06% | 9.80% |
Jack Eichel | 7.98% | 7.57% | 9.60% |
Mitchell Marner | 10.21% | 11.78% | 11.90% |
Auston Matthews | 10.12% | 15.54% | 16.60% |
Alexander Ovechkin | 9.38% | 10.38% | 12.60% |
Steven Stamkos | 10.31% | 14.86% | 16.70% |
Sidney Crosby | 9.83% | 12.94% | 14.50% |
Evgeni Malkin | 9.48% | 12.46% | 13.60% |
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
(Numbers used for 5V5 start at the 2007-2008 season, so they include a few seasons for Ovechkin, Malkin, and Crosby. But it probably doesn't change much.)
As we can see here, Pettersson's shooting rates, both individual and on-ice, are all ridiculous. They completely trump those of Ovechkin, Stamkos, Crosby, and Malkin, along with the players that you mentioned. Unless you think that Pettersson is the best shooter of all time, and the best driver of oiSH% since probably Gretzky, it's only reasonable to suspect that these numbers will drop off quite a bit - even if Pettersson is an absolutely elite player.
Two: There are a lot of players who explode in what appears to be a breakout year due to a high oiSH%, and then don't sustain it in the following seasons. Here are a few recent examples:
Player | Season | oiSH% | xGF | GF | GF>xGF | 5V5 P1/60 | Points Per Game |
William Nylander | 2017-2018 | 12.07% | 53.55 | 71 | 17.45 | 1.76 | 0.74 |
William Nylander | 2018-2019 | 8.89% | 15.61 | 16 | 0.39 | 1.46 | 0.38 |
William Karlsson | 2017-2018 | 10.56% | 48.14 | 66 | 17.86 | 1.78 | 0.95 |
William Karlsson | 2018-2019 | 7.37% | 37.59 | 33 | -4.59 | 1.04 | 0.63 |
Sean Couturier | 2017-2018 | 11.24% | 54.92 | 76 | 21.08 | 1.76 | 0.93 |
Sean Couturier | 2018-2019 | 8.97% | 32.55 | 40 | 7.45 | 1.59 | 0.91 |
Yanni Gourde | 2017-2018 | 11.58% | 43.51 | 63 | 19.49 | 1.96 | 0.78 |
Yanni Gourde | 2018-2019 | 9.57% | 28.29 | 36 | 7.71 | 1.63 | 0.58 |
TJ Oshie | 2016-2017 | 11.06% | 38.59 | 51 | 12.41 | 2.08 | 0.82 |
TJ Oshie | 2017-2018 | 8.23% | 39.65 | 41 | 1.35 | 1.15 | 0.64 |
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
TL;DR: Pettersson is going to need to do what he is doing for multiple seasons before he can prove that he is actually an elite driver of SH% and oiSH%. And even then, he isn't going to be
this elite of a driver of SH% and oiSH%.