Elias Pettersson Milestone Thread

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Scoring is up this season, take a look at Marner, Mackinnon, Eichel, McKinnon etc’s on ice shooting % this year, they’re all in the same realm as Pettersson.

@JoeThorntonsRooster

Player	5V5 oiSH%	5V5 SH%	SH%
Elias Pettersson	12.13%	25%	26.60%
Nathan MacKinnon	9.38%	10.49%	12.10%
Jack Eichel	10.07%	6.15%	8.40%
Mitchell Marner	12.67%	12.90%	13.90%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Marner's 5V5 oiSH% is higher than Pettersson's. Outside of that, these guys aren't even close to Pettersson in any of these metrics. And if somebody said that Marner's current 5-on-5 scoring rate probably isn't sustainable, I would be entirely in agreement. Tavares isn't going to maintain a 18.52% iSH% and Marner won't maintain that 12.67 oiSH% over multiple seasons either.

 

[CpatainCanuck]

Two things.

One: Elite players will generally have higher oiSH% than average 2nd line players. Yes, this is accurate. However, Pettersson's oiSH% (and his sh%) are both above and beyond what even elite players are generally at. His 5V5 oiSH% is 12.13%, his 5V5 SH% is 25%, and his overall SH% is 26.6%. Let's compare this to the career numbers of some notable superstars.

Player	5V5 oiSH%	5V5 SH%	SH%
Elias Pettersson	12.13%	25%	26.60%
Nathan MacKinnon	8.88%	8.06%	9.80%
Jack Eichel	7.98%	7.57%	9.60%
Mitchell Marner	10.21%	11.78%	11.90%
Auston Matthews	10.12%	15.54%	16.60%
Alexander Ovechkin	9.38%	10.38%	12.60%
Steven Stamkos	10.31%	14.86%	16.70%
Sidney Crosby	9.83%	12.94%	14.50%
Evgeni Malkin	9.48%	12.46%	13.60%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

(Numbers used for 5V5 start at the 2007-2008 season, so they include a few seasons for Ovechkin, Malkin, and Crosby. But it probably doesn't change much.)

As we can see here, Pettersson's shooting rates, both individual and on-ice, are all ridiculous. They completely trump those of Ovechkin, Stamkos, Crosby, and Malkin, along with the players that you mentioned. Unless you think that Pettersson is the best shooter of all time, and the best driver of oiSH% since probably Gretzky, it's only reasonable to suspect that these numbers will drop off quite a bit - even if Pettersson is an absolutely elite player.

Two: There are a lot of players who explode in what appears to be a breakout year due to a high oiSH%, and then don't sustain it in the following seasons. Here are a few recent examples:

Player	Season	oiSH%	xGF	GF	GF>xGF	5V5 P1/60	Points Per Game
William Nylander	2017-2018	12.07%	53.55	71	17.45	1.76	0.74
William Nylander	2018-2019	8.89%	15.61	16	0.39	1.46	0.38
William Karlsson	2017-2018	10.56%	48.14	66	17.86	1.78	0.95
William Karlsson	2018-2019	7.37%	37.59	33	-4.59	1.04	0.63
Sean Couturier	2017-2018	11.24%	54.92	76	21.08	1.76	0.93
Sean Couturier	2018-2019	8.97%	32.55	40	7.45	1.59	0.91
Yanni Gourde	2017-2018	11.58%	43.51	63	19.49	1.96	0.78
Yanni Gourde	2018-2019	9.57%	28.29	36	7.71	1.63	0.58
TJ Oshie	2016-2017	11.06%	38.59	51	12.41	2.08	0.82
TJ Oshie	2017-2018	8.23%	39.65	41	1.35	1.15	0.64

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

TL;DR: Pettersson is going to need to do what he is doing for multiple seasons before he can prove that he is actually an elite driver of SH% and oiSH%. And even then, he isn't going to be this elite of a driver of SH% and oiSH%.

Most everyone realizes that Pettersson's shot percentage is almost certainly going to drop a bit. However it should also be noted that he averages only 2.09 shots per game. For a sniper of his calibre that is extremely low. Ovechkin's career average is 4.8. Crosby 3.3. Stamkos 3.1. Laine 3.0. McDavid 3.0.

The point being that a drop in shooting percentage should be neutralized by Pettersson just taking more shots. Right now, Pettersson's playmaking mentality coupled with the limitations of his own team (which allows teams to zero in on him) have limited his shot totals. But that is likely to change as his team improves and he matures.

Anybody who watches him play should realize that his shot percentage is likely to stay at or near the top of the league, even if his shot percentage drops a bit from the extraordinary number he has achieved thus far.

 

[Addison Rae]

Player	5V5 oiSH%	5V5 SH%	SH%
Elias Pettersson	12.13%	25%	26.60%
Nathan MacKinnon	9.38%	10.49%	12.10%
Jack Eichel	10.07%	6.15%	8.40%
Mitchell Marner	12.67%	12.90%	13.90%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Marner's 5V5 oiSH% is higher than Pettersson's. Outside of that, these guys aren't even close to Pettersson in any of these metrics. And if somebody said that Marner's current 5-on-5 scoring rate probably isn't sustainable, I would be entirely in agreement. Tavares isn't going to maintain a 18.52% iSH% and Marner won't maintain that 12.67 oiSH% over multiple seasons either.

Pettersson is tops in the league in primary points 60 at even strength. No one expects that to be the case moving forward.

Look at their all situations on ice shooting %. They’re all within a % of each other.

 

[dKs89]

Imagine showing this thread to any actual player or coach in the league. It's a joke. "Inflated production" just lol. Yet another thread where somehow the most important stat, you know, actual points and goals is trying to be argued against. Insane.

50 points is 50 points.

Pretty simple.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

Imagine showing this thread to any actual player or coach in the league. It's a joke. "Inflated production" just lol. Yet another thread where somehow the most important stat, you know, actual points and goals is trying to be argued against. Insane.

50 points is 50 points.

Pretty simple.

I see you’re a fan of ignoring context

Coaches and players arent

 

[Doctor No]

Imagine showing this thread to any actual player or coach in the league. It's a joke. "Inflated production" just lol. Yet another thread where somehow the most important stat, you know, actual points and goals is trying to be argued against. Insane.

50 points is 50 points.

Pretty simple.

You're conflating two things - (1) what has a player done already, and (2) what can we expect a player to do in the future.

Perhaps deliberately, since the distinction is pretty clear.

 

[logan5]

I see you’re a fan of ignoring context

Coaches and players arent

Ok let's put it into context. If Pettersson finishes his rookie season at better than a point a game, he will have accomplished something that very few rookies have accomplished. If you look at the last 20 years, not very many Calder winners are over a point a game. some very elite players on that list.

Pettersson does not shoot unless he has a good chance of scoring (at least so far), and he tends to either miss or hit top corner. That's my theory on why his shot% is so high.

Al in all his rookie season is a pretty good sign and suggests he is capable of winning a Hart or Art Ross at some point in his career.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

Ok let's put it into context. If Pettersson finishes his rookie season at better than a point a game, he will have accomplished something that very few rookies have accomplished. If you look at the last 20 years, not very many Calder winners are over a point a game. some very elite players on that list.

Pettersson does not shoot unless he has a good chance of scoring (at least so far), and he tends to either miss or hit top corner. That's my theory on why his shot% is so high.

All in all his rookie season is a pretty good sign and suggests he is capable of winning a Hart or Art Ross at some point in his career.

Nobody is debating the bolded. At least im not (excluding his peak but either way its 1st line)

My point as well as some others have been to disperse this silly idea that he is some breed of selective shooter the league has never seen before who will average 20%+ over his career. On top of that, he will likely score less if he doesn't raise his volume - which would then lead to less assists. So essentially either way he chooses once his sh% normalizes, his point share will as well. No, its not a drastic difference, but its close to 10 of his 50 now (16% instead of 26% equals 9 less goals)

 

[Aqualung]

While I do think it’s reasonable to say his shooting percentage should regress, he is a rookie and going to get better playing in the NHL, and a regression in his shooting percentage will not necessarily correlate to lesser performance points-wise.

I’d bet, regardless of his shooting percentage, in the future EP will have seasons even better than his rookie season.

 

[Ben White]

Nobody is debating the bolded. At least im not (excluding his peak but either way its 1st line)

My point as well as some others have been to disperse this silly idea that he is some breed of selective shooter the league has never seen before who will average 20%+ over his career. On top of that, he will likely score less if he doesn't raise his volume - which would then lead to less assists. So essentially either way he chooses once his sh% normalizes, his point share will as well. No, its not a drastic difference, but its close to 10 of his 50 now (16% instead of 26% equals 9 less goals)

Absolutely horrible argumentation from top to bottom. Either way he will likely have more assists cause: 1. his teammates have been horrible at scoring on his dishes this season
2. his secondary assist % is unusually low
3. add to that Boser’s injury and below avarage offensive talent level across the entire Canuck’s roster and you’d realize his assist totals will most certainly get a raise in the future - he is a playmaker first and foremost but you don’t know that cause you never watched him play did you?

 

[Motte and Bailey]

Change this to any other player not named McDavid* and it'll be fair. McDavid is on another level compared to everyone else.

It’s uncertain whether McDavid has been irreversibly damaged psychologically by the Edmonton Oilers. Picking him over Pettersson would be a huge risk IMO.

 

[Lonny Bohonos]

I'm a Devils fan, and I imagine some NJ fans are coming in here due to Nico, but I think it's clear that EP has separated himself from Nico and anyone in that draft for that matter. That being said I don't really see anything that suggests that EP will clearly be a top 3-5 player in the league. I honestly feel like some of you Canucks fans just get blinded by some of his oooh-aaah plays and think he'll somehow be on McDavid's level. He isn't and I doubt he ever will be. Top 10 C, probably, top 3-5 player in the league, I'll bet a lot that it isn't happening.

Quite the opposite for me actually.

His ohhhs and ahhhs plays are nice.

What does it for me his non ohhs and ahhs plays.

Petterson can walk out of a game in which he gets a couple of points in which you think "geez Im surprised he got a couple of points."

When I have noted his play style being similar to Gretzky this is what I am referring to.

Gretzky could quietly have 5 points nights.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

Absolutely horrible argumentation from top to bottom. Either way he will likely have more assists cause: 1. his teammates have been horrible at scoring on his dishes this season
2. his secondary assist % is unusually low
3. add to that Boser’s injury and below avarage offensive talent level across the entire Canuck’s roster and you’d realize his assist totals will most certainly get a raise in the future - he is a playmaker first and foremost but you don’t know that cause you never watched him play did you?

If you thought that was a horrible argument then ill end the conversation here

 

[Lonny Bohonos]

Absolutely horrible argumentation from top to bottom. Either way he will likely have more assists cause: 1. his teammates have been horrible at scoring on his dishes this season
2. his secondary assist % is unusually low
3. add to that Boser’s injury and below avarage offensive talent level across the entire Canuck’s roster and you’d realize his assist totals will most certainly get a raise in the future - he is a playmaker first and foremost but you don’t know that cause you never watched him play did you?

I dont really buy him being a playmaker first and foremost. If anything he is much more 50-50. I think his stats also bear this out nicely.

 

[koyvoo]

Paul Karyia interviewed tonight during the 1st intermission of the hometown hockey broadcast also said that Pettersson reminds him of Gretzky.

 

[Lonny Bohonos]

If you thought that was a horrible argument then ill end the conversation here

If your argument is that Petterson is lucky why not bolster your argument by breaking down all his goals this year and outlining which ones you feel are lucky?

Theres only 25 to analyze so its like an afternoon.

 

[GetFocht]

Paul Karyia interviewed tonight during the 1st intermission of the hometown hockey broadcast also said that Pettersson reminds him of Gretzky.

His style is very similar, watching Pettersson is incredible because his anticipation is probably one of the best in the league. He never chases the puck, he just skates where he thinks the puck will be.

Canucks top scout, Gradin, said you could Pettersson is soccer and he will excel at it simply because of the way he thinks the game. He always looks to see what the next few moves are.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

Nobody is debating the bolded. At least im not (excluding his peak but either way its 1st line)

My point as well as some others have been to disperse this silly idea that he is some breed of selective shooter the league has never seen before who will average 20%+ over his career. On top of that, he will likely score less if he doesn't raise his volume - which would then lead to less assists. So essentially either way he chooses once his sh% normalizes, his point share will as well. No, its not a drastic difference, but its close to 10 of his 50 now (16% instead of 26% equals 9 less goals)

So if his point share is going to drop, because he's somehow going to get less assists (???), is this season going to be his career high for points?

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

So if his point share is going to drop, because he's somehow going to get less assists (???), is this season going to be his career high for points?

Less assists?
Career high?

Idk what you read but it sure wasn’t the post you quoted

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

If your argument is that Petterson is lucky why not bolster your argument by breaking down all his goals this year and outlining which ones you feel are lucky?

Theres only 25 to analyze so its like an afternoon.

I dont care what each one looks like, if he’s shooting 26.6% he’s lucky

 

[the_gman83]

I dont care what each one looks like, if he’s shooting 26.6% he’s lucky

Funny, people said his season last year in the SHL was unsustainably lucky, too (and the year before that, actually). Maybe he's just the luckiest player in history?

Elias Pettersson’s Season Was Lucky, but He’s Still a Favorite for the 2019 Calder Trophy

 

[Lonny Bohonos]

I dont care what each one looks like, if he’s shooting 26.6% he’s lucky

I was only trying to help you direct your outrage to something useful. Like pointing out his lucky goals.

My bad. Rage on.

 

[Lonny Bohonos]

Funny, people said his season last year in the SHL was unsustainably lucky, too (and the year before that, actually). Maybe he's just the luckiest player in history?

Elias Pettersson’s Season Was Lucky, but He’s Still a Favorite for the 2019 Calder Trophy

The thing is it would be pretty easy to find a bunch of "lucky" goals if we were talking about say Josh Leivo having 26% and 25 goals. It would be pretty obvious.

Im struggling to find the lucky goals that Petterson has scored this year. At a least a significant amount to warrant being worried about whether his sh % and goals scoring rate will tank.

Hes a 40 goal scorer and will be for a while. Regardless of where his sh% goes.

 

[DaBadGuy316]

This thread is a gongshow, nonetheless I will continue to walk with Elias.

 

[the_gman83]

The thing is it would be pretty easy to find a bunch of "lucky" goals if we were talking about say Josh Leivo having 26% and 25 goals. It would be pretty obvious.

Im struggling to find the lucky goals that Petterson has scored this year. At a least a significant amount to warrant being worried about whether his sh % and goals scoring rate will tank.

Hes a 40 goal scorer and will be for a while. Regardless of where his sh% goes.

I was being sarcastic. If your results are due to "luck" for three straight seasons, then it's probably not luck after all.