Elias Pettersson Milestone Thread

[Blender]

I've constructed my argument a number of times, you don't seem to be able to grasp it or care to acknowledge it. Elite players drive offense more than average players, how is that so hard to grasp?

Players like Mackinnon, Eichel, Matthews, Pettersson, Marner will always have higher on ice shooting %'s than average 2nd line players. Why not conduct an argument for guys like Marner, Matthews, Eichel etc and look at their XGF%.

What are you even talking about? "Elite players drive offense more than average players, how is that so hard to grasp?", wasn't even your claim, it was that this somehow refutes xGF. You haven't provided any argument to support that claim. Just stating a claim in different ways isn't an argument, and I'm stunned that you think that it is. An argument is providing the reasoning, logic, and evidence to support your claim, which you have done none of.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

His production is clearly inflated, all the stats support that and no, watching him more or less isn't going to change that fact. I have said nothing about how good I think he is.

Uh, you understand that stats are trying to quantify what is actually happening on the ice right?

Just because the stats, which are generalized across the entire league, suggest that on average, the statistical trend is that blah blah, is fairly meaningless without the eye-test as well. And the eye-test suggests that Pettersson is going to be a top 3-5 player in the league for the next 10 or 15 years.

I'm not saying that as a biased Canucks fan. You can look through my entire post history and I have never blown up a Canucks prospect/player like this.

If this is about Nico, he's a fantastic player but he's not in the same league. I promise that time will bare that out and I would be more than willing to put my money where my mouth is.

 

[Addison Rae]

Except it would be because he'd have less goals

What, are all of his shots that would have missed going to end up in tap-ins or something?
On-ice shooting% does not make up for every shot he'd miss to have equaled to an average or above average shooting%

This makes very little sense to me.

 

[Addison Rae]

What are you even talking about? "Elite players drive offense more than average players, how is that so hard to grasp?", wasn't even your claim, it was that this somehow refutes xGF. You haven't provided any argument to support that claim. Just stating a claim in different ways isn't an argument, and I'm stunned that you think that it is. An argument is providing the reasoning, logic, and evidence to support your claim, which you have done none of.

Not wasting my time, dear lord you can't be serious with this, can you?

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

It's weird to me how much posters like to argue- Pettersson is amazing. We'll see how amazing he actually is as time goes along. Stats and history say his shooting percentage will regress, to what degree we don't know. He may get better, he may plateau. That's.. that's what I know for now. Can we just appreciate the league having another star player?

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

Excellent rebuttal

You've really put the lock on this one there, boss

Thing is, I have played and watched hockey for 25 years. I like discussing hockey because I love hockey. I'm not here to meme and obfuscate my way to "winning" arguments.

Advanced stats have a use. They are a semi-objective way of double checking to see if your observations are reinforced. They are also a good way of drawing attention to things that have been missed.

If you think that they serve as a replacement for the experience of watching a player day in and day out (by an experienced observer who understands the game), than there is nothing to discuss. Enjoy watching Chayka run the Coyotes into the ground or the Panthers spin their wheels.

 

[Blender]

Not wasting my time, dear lord you can't be serious with this, can you?

Yes I'm serious that I expect people to actually substantiate their claims. How hard is to provide an analysis (or a link to one) that shows what you are claiming is true since you think it's so self-evident?

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

This makes very little sense to me.

Okay..

Pettersson's on-ice% would predict further possible production, that doesn't mean if he was shooting 16.6% instead of 26.6% he'd have 50 points still. That drops from 25 to 16 goals. That is a negative net considering there is no way to know if he'd have assisted on zero or all nine of the missed goals from the lower shooting%

His on-ice shooting% would predict he has a good chance of replacing SOME/MOST of those goals he'd be missing with a lower to the mean shooting%, not dictate if he would have replaced those points this year.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

Thing is, I have played and watched hockey for 25 years. I like discussing hockey because I love hockey. I'm not here to meme and obfuscate my way to "winning" arguments.

Advanced stats have a use. They are a semi-objective way of double checking to see if your observations are reinforced. They are also a good way of drawing attention to things that have been missed.

If you think that they serve as a replacement for the experience of watching a player day in and day out (by an experienced observer who understands the game), than there is nothing to discuss. Enjoy watching Chayka run the Coyotes into the ground or the Panthers spin their wheels.

Doesn't mean you can go around telling people their understanding of hockey is lesser than you because you think differently

If that was the case then why the hell are there different NHL GMs or coaches? Wouldnt they all have at least the knowledge or more of their peers? Why do some scouts find great players and some find poor ones?

If you're so knowledgeable about hockey and it's so easy for you to assess talent then apply for an amateur scouting position.

 

[135ace]

Uh, you understand that stats are trying to quantify what is actually happening on the ice right?

Just because the stats, which are generalized across the entire league, suggest that on average, the statistical trend is that blah blah, is fairly meaningless without the eye-test as well. And the eye-test suggests that Pettersson is going to be a top 3-5 player in the league for the next 10 or 15 years.

I'm not saying that as a biased Canucks fan. You can look through my entire post history and I have never blown up a Canucks prospect/player like this.

If this is about Nico, he's a fantastic player but he's not in the same league. I promise that time will bare that out and I would be more than willing to put my money where my mouth is.

I'm a Devils fan, and I imagine some NJ fans are coming in here due to Nico, but I think it's clear that EP has separated himself from Nico and anyone in that draft for that matter. That being said I don't really see anything that suggests that EP will clearly be a top 3-5 player in the league. I honestly feel like some of you Canucks fans just get blinded by some of his oooh-aaah plays and think he'll somehow be on McDavid's level. He isn't and I doubt he ever will be. Top 10 C, probably, top 3-5 player in the league, I'll bet a lot that it isn't happening.

 

[moog35]

I'm a Devils fan, and I imagine some NJ fans are coming in here due to Nico, but I think it's clear that EP has separated himself from Nico and anyone in that draft for that matter. That being said I don't really see anything that suggests that EP will clearly be a top 3-5 player in the league. I honestly feel like some of you Canucks fans just get blinded by some of his oooh-aaah plays and think he'll somehow be on McDavid's level. He isn't and I doubt he ever will be. Top 10 C, probably, top 3-5 player in the league, I'll bet a lot that it isn't happening.

I’ll take you up on that bet. Pettersson is the real deal

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

Doesn't mean you can go around telling people their understanding of hockey is lesser than you because you think differently

If that was the case then why the hell are there different NHL GMs or coaches? Wouldnt they all have at least the knowledge or more of their peers? Why do some scouts find great players and some find poor ones?

If you're so knowledgeable about hockey and it's so easy for you to assess talent then apply for an amateur scouting position.

I would rather keep it a hobby.

But look, there are some opinions that discredit the holder of the opinion. If you try to tell me that Dale Hawerchuk was better than Gretzky, there is an objective reality that is being ignored.

I'm not comparing Pettersson to Gretz, so no bunched panties please, but Pettersson is a different type of player. People who get it, know this. People who don't, can be contrarians until it becomes so obvious that it's undeniable and then they can quietly pretend that they never held that opinion.

Pettersson has a lot of Datsyuk qualities and, like Datsyuk, opponents (and executives from other teams) can't help but gush about him. These are guys with nothing to benefit from Pettersson doing well. Stamkos said that Pettersson was the player he was most excited to see. Do you think that's because he hadn't seen his xgf% numbers which would discredit everything that he has seen?

 

[Ace of Hades]

Hes shooting 26.6%, 25 on 94. In order to shoot more and sustain the 25 goals or more, he’d have to have shot 150+ by now to be at a hefty 16.6%.

So what exactly in his ‘player development’, that the other negligent poster used as reasoning, is going to increase Petterssons shooting volume by 62%+? I thought one of his praises was he us a ‘selective shooter with high IQ’?

FYI, that shooting volume above would pin Pettersson at 275+ shots in 82 games, which last season would pin Pettersson top 15 in volume - btw nobody in the top 15 was above 15% shooting, the highest was Connor McDavid.

If you're going to refer to somebody, have the guts to actually respond to them instead of spouting nonsense and drivel as you usually do.
The only negligent person is here is your failure and acknowledgement of a player's development just because it doesn't fit your perceived agenda on the player.

 

[135ace]

I’ll take you up on that bet. Pettersson is the real deal

Done.
And for the record I'm not saying he's not the real deal, as in a future top 10 center, but top 3-5 player, nope.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

If you're going to refer to somebody, have the guts to actually respond to them instead of spouting nonsense and drivel as you usually do.
The only negligent person is here is your failure and acknowledgement of a player's development just because it doesn't fit your perceived agenda on the player.

So you're going to quote a post with numbers and statistics proving my point and rebuttal with a bunch of fluff about how somehow you were right or something like that..?

Probably a good reason for that and you know it

 

[drewjenks]

No, but better than anyone on the Toronto roster. That's what matters.

This guy is an internet forum alpha.

They werent wrong when they said that this kid is new Gretzky. Its amazing to think that this stud will play his whole career with S% over 20.

Vancouver is such a lucky team to get this kid. First Horvat, then Boeser and now Pettersson. And Pettersson with 5th pick, congrats canucks.

Is this sarcasm?

 

[GetFocht]

Pettersson looks generational.

 

[Ace of Hades]

So you're going to quote a post with numbers and statistics proving my point and rebuttal with a bunch of fluff about how somehow you were right or something like that..?

Probably a good reason for that and you know it

Reading comprehension seems to not be your highest strength especially since you do not understand full well what we're arguing upon. Hint: Point totals.

 

[drewjenks]

Pettersson is actually the real deal and not being overhyped at all.

He's on a hype train with no breaks & no conductor.

He is quite good though.

 

[moog35]

Done.
And for the record I'm not saying he's not the real deal, as in a future top 10 center, but top 3-5 player, nope.

I believe he will be in the top 3-5 player range

 

[alicia]

So like have any of the people who don’t believe in petey watched him? Or are y’all watching the scoreboard instead of the ice? With all the missed chances and injuries, he could’ve been near 70 points right now

 

[Individual 1]

So like have any of the people who don’t believe in petey watched him? Or are y’all watching the scoreboard instead of the ice? With all the missed chances and injuries, he could’ve been near 70 points right now

The roughly 16 skaters who have a better ppg and more points, that giving him nearly 70 points would put him above all have lots of missed opportunities themselves.

Or does Pettersson distinctly have more missed opportunities than players such as Crosby, Point, Wheeler, Marner, Pastrnak, Panarin, and can you provide a source for this?

 

[Ainec]

it's weird how canucks fans underrate this god

saying things like
-he looks generational (he is)
-potentially top 3-5 player (not top 2?)
-selke award (implying he's only good for the consolation to the hart (aka mvp fwd) trophy)

we don't deserve him

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I've constructed my argument a number of times, you don't seem to be able to grasp it or care to acknowledge it. Elite players drive offense more than average players, how is that so hard to grasp?

Players like Mackinnon, Eichel, Matthews, Pettersson, Marner will always have higher on ice shooting %'s than average 2nd line players. Why not conduct an argument for guys like Marner, Matthews, Eichel etc and look at their XGF%.

Two things.

One: Elite players will generally have higher oiSH% than average 2nd line players. Yes, this is accurate. However, Pettersson's oiSH% (and his sh%) are both above and beyond what even elite players are generally at. His 5V5 oiSH% is 12.13%, his 5V5 SH% is 25%, and his overall SH% is 26.6%. Let's compare this to the career numbers of some notable superstars.

Player	5V5 oiSH%	5V5 SH%	SH%
Elias Pettersson	12.13%	25%	26.60%
Nathan MacKinnon	8.88%	8.06%	9.80%
Jack Eichel	7.98%	7.57%	9.60%
Mitchell Marner	10.21%	11.78%	11.90%
Auston Matthews	10.12%	15.54%	16.60%
Alexander Ovechkin	9.38%	10.38%	12.60%
Steven Stamkos	10.31%	14.86%	16.70%
Sidney Crosby	9.83%	12.94%	14.50%
Evgeni Malkin	9.48%	12.46%	13.60%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

(Numbers used for 5V5 start at the 2007-2008 season, so they include a few seasons for Ovechkin, Malkin, and Crosby. But it probably doesn't change much.)

As we can see here, Pettersson's shooting rates, both individual and on-ice, are all ridiculous. They completely trump those of Ovechkin, Stamkos, Crosby, and Malkin, along with the players that you mentioned. Unless you think that Pettersson is the best shooter of all time, and the best driver of oiSH% since probably Gretzky, it's only reasonable to suspect that these numbers will drop off quite a bit - even if Pettersson is an absolutely elite player.

Two: There are a lot of players who explode in what appears to be a breakout year due to a high oiSH%, and then don't sustain it in the following seasons. Here are a few recent examples:

Player	Season	oiSH%	xGF	GF	GF>xGF	5V5 P1/60	Points Per Game
William Nylander	2017-2018	12.07%	53.55	71	17.45	1.76	0.74
William Nylander	2018-2019	8.89%	15.61	16	0.39	1.46	0.38
William Karlsson	2017-2018	10.56%	48.14	66	17.86	1.78	0.95
William Karlsson	2018-2019	7.37%	37.59	33	-4.59	1.04	0.63
Sean Couturier	2017-2018	11.24%	54.92	76	21.08	1.76	0.93
Sean Couturier	2018-2019	8.97%	32.55	40	7.45	1.59	0.91
Yanni Gourde	2017-2018	11.58%	43.51	63	19.49	1.96	0.78
Yanni Gourde	2018-2019	9.57%	28.29	36	7.71	1.63	0.58
TJ Oshie	2016-2017	11.06%	38.59	51	12.41	2.08	0.82
TJ Oshie	2017-2018	8.23%	39.65	41	1.35	1.15	0.64

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

TL;DR: Pettersson is going to need to do what he is doing for multiple seasons before he can prove that he is actually an elite driver of SH% and oiSH%. And even then, he isn't going to be this elite of a driver of SH% and oiSH%.

 

[Addison Rae]

Scoring is up this season, take a look at Marner, Mackinnon, Eichel, McKinnon etc’s on ice shooting % this year, they’re all in the same realm as Pettersson.

@JoeThorntonsRooster