Eichel, Matthews, Pettersson in 5 years

[Randy Randerson]

EP is also a first overall franchise talent. Its not his fault scouts didnt draft him because he was 160 pounds. Look at Hischier vs EP polls in the beginning of the season.

Look, winning a poll on HF boards means absolutely nothing. Whether Matthews, Eichel or EP is better i really dont care. The point is that I think there wont be MUCH separating these players going forward. You would take 100 dollars over 99.95 dollars 100% of the time right?

He wasn't a #1oa type talent on his draft day, and Hischier himself was a very poor #1oa for comparison (comparing to 2015 which was the strongest draft in a long time, the Strome/Marner/Hanifin tier likely all go ahead of Hischier for example). Pettersson had an anomalous D+1 which is what has grown his reputation

I would bet that there is a gap between Matthews/Eichel and Pettersson when it's all said and done, but I think Pettersson will be a #1C. I also think that he'll be more of a puck distributor than Matthews

 

[WetcoastOrca]

When all is said and done I think it ends up like this between the three of them:
Eichel: best playmaker
Matthews: best goal scorer
Pettersson: best overall with elite goal scoring and playmaking. A player who can adapt better to situations depending on whether or not he needs to be a playmaker or scorer.
Not that Matthews playmaking or Eichel’s goal scoring are not high end. I just see Pettersson as a slightly better rounded player when they all hit their peaks.

 

[Icebreakers]

He wasn't a #1oa type talent on his draft day, and Hischier himself was a very poor #1oa for comparison (comparing to 2015 which was the strongest draft in a long time, the Strome/Marner/Hanifin tier likely all go ahead of Hischier for example). Pettersson had an anomalous D+1 which is what has grown his reputation

I would bet that there is a gap between Matthews/Eichel and Pettersson when it's all said and done, but I think Pettersson will be a #1C. I also think that he'll be more of a puck distributor than Matthews

EP was definitely a #1 oa talent on draft day. Going by stats alone he should have went #1.

Go look it up. He didnt lead the SHL in points over one summer and dominate the NHL like this randomly. Go look at EP's draft season. 41 points in 43 games in the Allsvenskan in the SHL is first overall type numbers.

Filip Forsberg had (17p in 43gp in draft year and 33p in 38gp in d+1)
David Pastrnak had 24 points in 36 games.


"Pettersson also has the esteemed honour of leading all draft eligible players in SEAL adjusted scoring – better than Nolan Patrick, better than Nico Hischier, and everyone else on this list. Much of that is owed to being a near point-per-game player in a professional league, but Pettersson was also highly successful at even strength. He tallied 11 goals and 11 assists at 5-on-5, with his team scoring 66% of the goals when he was on the ice. He generated more than 3 points per hour in all situations, and had a point on nearly 40% of Timra’s goals this past season."

"Pettersson’s performance was largely unprecedented for an 18-year old in the Allsvenskan, and so he has no statistical matches, successful or otherwise."

 

[Randy Randerson]

EP was definitely a #1 oa talent on draft day. Going by stats alone he should have went #1.

Go look it up. He didnt lead the SHL in points over one summer and dominate the NHL like this randomly. Go look at EP's draft season. 41 points in 43 games in the Allsvenskan in the SHL is first overall type numbers.

Filip Forsberg had (17p in 43gp in draft year and 33p in 38gp in d+1)
David Pastrnak had 24 points in 36 games.

Allsvenskan isn't SHL, Allsvenskan is the league below the SHL. Pastrnak and Forsberg aren't great jumping off points to a #1oa pick because they weren't really high picks themselves. If you look at Swedes who have gone #1 or close to it lately, they're SHL players before their drafts. Near ppg performance in the SHL would absolutely be #1oa worthy, and would have gone there with a bullet in a very weak top of the 2017 draft

nobody of any note had Pettersson even close to #1, you guys took him above where he was expected to go: 2017 NHL Draft Rankings

 

[Icebreakers]

Allsvenskan isn't SHL, Allsvenskan is the league below the SHL. Pastrnak and Forsberg aren't great jumping off points to a #1oa pick because they weren't really high picks themselves. If you look at Swedes who have gone #1 or close to it lately, they're SHL players before their drafts

nobody of any note had Pettersson even close to #1, you guys took him above where he was expected to go: 2017 NHL Draft Rankings

I said #1 oa talent. He fell because of size. If he was 10-15 pounds heavier or played in NA he would have gone #1. He didnt get good over night. Forsberg was projected to go top 3 in his draft and he fell. Pastrnak fell a bit too and both are doing pretty damn well. EP blew both of their numbers out of the water. Like i said, he had no comparables in the Allsvenskan, thats how good he was. He would have smoked the SHL if he had an opportunity too as well.

Why do you think people are asking why did EP drop to 5 just 1.5 years after the draft?


Unprecedented allsvenskan numbers

Unprecedented SHL numbers

NHL rookie numbers that compare to franchise and or generational talents.

He didn't come out of nowhere. He's been good for a while. People saying it's been unsustainable for a while.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I said #1 oa talent. He fell because of size. If he was 10-15 pounds heavier or played in NA he would have gone #1. He didnt get good over night. Forsberg was projected to go top 3 in his draft and he fell. Pastrnak fell a bit too and both are doing pretty damn well. EP blew both of their numbers out of the water. Like i said, he had no comparables in the Allsvenskan, thats how good he was. He would have smoked the SHL if he had an opportunity too as well.
Why do you think people are asking why did EP drop to 5 just 1.5 years after the draft?


Unprecedented allsvenskan numbers

Unprecedented SHL numbers

NHL rookie numbers that compare to franchise and or generational talents.

He didn't come out of nowhere. He's been good for a while. People saying it's been unsustainable for a while.

He actually rose as draft day approached. If he was 10-15lbs heavier and playing in the SHL, maybe he would have gone #1. Pastrnak went around where he was projected going into the draft, (2014 NHL Draft Prospect Rankings) and Forsberg fell a bit but #3 was the highest he was rated not the average in a meh draft class

He was a #1oa talent in retrospect, not on draft day, unless you think you know more than McKenzie, Pronman, Button, Dobber, McKeens and the scouting services

people are asking why he dropped because of what he's done since his draft. He was second on his team in scoring in his draft year to a guy who was drafted in the 2nd round a year earlier and who was one year older, he was impressive in that year but not lore worthy. Matthews was runner up for the MVP of his men's league in the same year, for reference (which is absolutely a better league than Allsvenskan)

his rookie numbers need some adjustment for luck, opportunity and league scoring, but he's certainly trending well.

and no, "unsustainable" has only been brought up this year. No one said that his D+1 was anything short of amazing

 

[Icebreakers]

He actually rose as draft day approached. If he was 10-15lbs heavier and playing in the SHL, maybe he would have gone #1. Pastrnak went around where he was projected going into the draft, (2014 NHL Draft Prospect Rankings) and Forsberg fell a bit but #3 was the highest he was rated not the average in a meh draft class

He was a #1oa talent in retrospect, not on draft day, unless you think you know more than McKenzie, Pronman, Button, Dobber, McKeens and the scouting services

If he was a #1 oa talent in retrospect, hes still a #1 talent on that day so you dont make any sense. What people perceived him to be isnt what he was. What kind of logic is that. If i believed that Santa was real 2 years ago, and today i learned that he wasnt real 2 years ago. Does that mean he was real 2 years ago? No. The belief changes, what he was 2 years ago doesnt.

If I believed that EP wasnt a #1 oa talent 2 years ago, but he was, and today i learned that he was, it doesnt change the fact that he was a #1 oa talent 2 years ago. It just means i was wrong.

 

[Randy Randerson]

If he was a #1 oa talent in retrospect, hes still a #1 talent on that day so you dont make any sense. What people perceived him to be isnt what he was. What kind of logic is that. If i believed that Santa was real 2 years ago, and today i learned that he wasnt real 2 years ago. Does that mean he was real 2 years ago? No. The belief changes, what he was 2 years ago doesnt.

If I believed that EP wasnt a #1 oa talent 2 years ago, but he was, and today i learned that he was, it doesnt change the fact that he was a #1 oa talent 2 years ago. It just means i was wrong.

I'll try to draw a comparison for you to simplify this concept - go into the future and get me the next years' worth of stock market data, then give me a dollar and I'll make you a millionaire. You can only assess given the information you have, Pettersson was not consider a #1oa talent given the information available on his draft day, his stock went up considerably in his D+1

 

[Icebreakers]

I'll try to draw a comparison for you to simplify this concept - go into the future and get me the next years' worth of stock market data, then give me a dollar and I'll make you a millionaire. You can only assess given the information you have, Pettersson was not consider a #1oa talent given the information available on his draft day, his stock went up considerably in his D+1

Yeah he wasnt believed to be a #1 oa talent. But that doesnt change the fact that he was and is a #1 oa talent. What are you trying to argue?

Most people didnt believe that he was the #1 oa talent. But they were wrong, and its not surprising given his draft play.

Im not talking about how he was perceived to be. Im talking about what he is.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Yeah he wasnt believed to be a #1 oa talent. But that doesnt change the fact that he was and is a #1 oa talent. What are you trying to argue?

read below:

EP was definitely a #1 oa talent on draft day. Going by stats alone he should have went #1.

 

[Icebreakers]

read below:

I just told you though. His talent didnt go anywhere, just the beliefs on him changed. He was still a #1 oa talent in 2017. The beliefs changed (before they didnt think he was, now they do), his tangible skill didnt go anywhere.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I just told you though. His talent didnt go anywhere, just the beliefs on him changed. He was still a #1 oa talent in 2017. The beliefs changed (before they didnt think he was, now they do), his tangible skill didnt go anywhere.

We know that from retrospect, that info wasn't available on draft day, and the same will hold true for a lot of players every year. There's a reason that first round picks bust more than hit, it's throwing darts in the dark

 

[Icebreakers]

We know that from retrospect, that info wasn't available on draft day, and the same will hold true for a lot of players every year. There's a reason that first round picks bust more than hit, it's throwing darts in the dark

You dont understand the point. His talent didnt go anywhere. Just like how Gaudreau's talent didnt go anywhere since he was drafted. We were just wrong about him on draft day. He is still a #1 oa talent (EP).

You continue to believe what you want and ill do the same lol.

 

[Randy Randerson]

You dont understand the point. His talent didnt go anywhere. Just like how Gaudreau's talent didnt go anywhere since he was drafted. We were just wrong about him on draft day. He is still a #1 oa talent (EP).

You continue to believe what you want and ill do the same lol.

deal

 

[CP4]

He actually rose as draft day approached. If he was 10-15lbs heavier and playing in the SHL, maybe he would have gone #1. Pastrnak went around where he was projected going into the draft, (2014 NHL Draft Prospect Rankings) and Forsberg fell a bit but #3 was the highest he was rated not the average in a meh draft class

He was a #1oa talent in retrospect, not on draft day, unless you think you know more than McKenzie, Pronman, Button, Dobber, McKeens and the scouting services

people are asking why he dropped because of what he's done since his draft. He was second on his team in scoring in his draft year to a guy who was drafted in the 2nd round a year earlier and who was one year older, he was impressive in that year but not lore worthy. Matthews was runner up for the MVP of his men's league in the same year, for reference (which is absolutely a better league than Allsvenskan)

his rookie numbers need some adjustment for luck, opportunity and league scoring, but he's certainly trending well.

and no, "unsustainable" has only been brought up this year. No one said that his D+1 was anything short of amazing

His rookie numbers need adjusment for "luck"... Over PPG on one of the worst teams in the league as a rookie with tremendous two-way play is all "luck" for sure. Bet you didn't say anything like that during Matthews rookie year. Also where a player was picked or not picked in a draft does not change how good they are playing in the NHL. Honestly man it kinda just sounds like you're salty and downplaying Pettersson any way you can because you're mad the Canucks were able to find a franchise center comparable to generational Matthews exactly one year after the Leafs got him. Oh and also Alsvenskan>Swiss A.

 

[ole ole]

Mcdavid, Pettersson, Eichel, Matthews

Same.

 

[Randy Randerson]

His rookie numbers need adjusment for "luck"... Over PPG on one of the worst teams in the league as a rookie with tremendous two-way play is all "luck" for sure. Bet you didn't say anything like that during Matthews rookie year. Also where a player was picked or not picked in a draft does not change how good they are playing in the NHL. Honestly man it kinda just sounds like you're salty and downplaying Pettersson any way you can because you're mad the Canucks were able to find a franchise center comparable to generational Matthews exactly one year after the Leafs got him. Oh and also Alsvenskan>Swiss A.

Matthews had the opposite effect for most of his rookie season with bad luck, sort of normalized by the end but shot just over 14% and had an OIsh% of 8% at the end, the latter of which is pretty low for a 1st line player (especially when the portion of HD shots get factored in). "Luck" is a term that I'm using to mean "a higher percentage of pucks shot by, and shot while on the ice going in than is likely to continue"

I have no ill will towards Pettersson, Van would be among a small number of teams that I'd want to win the cup if the Leafs weren't, but looking at box scores and projecting from them without considering all of the factors around them is seeing what you want to see. And that's fine, but recognize it for what it is

And I do agree that this is exactly the same kind of thing as Matthews being hailed as better than McDavid after a hot start, you won't find a post of mine claiming that and you'll find a bunch saying the opposite if you look

Allsvenskan is basically a junior league, well below the NLA:
League Ranking – 2112HockeyAgency.com
A look at the pro hockey leagues of Europe, and how they stack up.

 

[CP4]

Matthews had the opposite effect for most of his rookie season with bad luck, sort of normalized by the end but shot just over 14% and had an OIsh% of 8% at the end, the latter of which is pretty low for a 1st line player (especially when the portion of HD shots get factored in). "Luck" is a term that I'm using to mean "a higher percentage of pucks shot by, and shot while on the ice going in than is likely to continue"

I have no ill will towards Pettersson, Van would be among a small number of teams that I'd want to win the cup if the Leafs weren't, but looking at box scores and projecting from them without considering all of the factors around them is seeing what you want to see. And that's fine, but recognize it for what it is

And I do agree that this is exactly the same kind of thing as Matthews being hailed as better than McDavid after a hot start, you won't find a post of mine claiming that and you'll find a bunch saying the opposite if you look

Allsvenskan is basically a junior league, well below the NLA:
League Ranking – 2112HockeyAgency.com
A look at the pro hockey leagues of Europe, and how they stack up.

Fair enough man think what you will of Pettersson, and I understand that Alsvenskan is like a junior league to SHL but I just think the overall quality of players is better in Alsvenskan compared to Swiss just because of the capita of hockey players in Sweden vs Switzerland.

 

[WillTheThrill]

Matthews
EP
Eichel

Will be very close though.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Fair enough man think what you will of Pettersson, and I understand that Alsvenskan is like a junior league to SHL but I just think the overall quality of players is better in Alsvenskan compared to Swiss just because of the capita of hockey players in Sweden vs Switzerland.

My point there was that Pettersson's pre-draft performance wasn't the impressive part, his SHL D+1 was the amazing season and what he's done in the NHL is very impressive too. I just think that what he's done so far this year needs some adjustment if you're going to compare it to Eichel/Matthews/etc's rookie years for luck (shooting %, OIsh%), league aggregate production by year (goals per game) and opportunity (time on ice, pp, linemates, offensive vs defensive usage, etc) and once you apply those it starts to slant the other direction with Matthews at least (and Matthews' 69pts adjusts upwards when you normalize his shooting and OIsh%'s, so I'm not trying to belittle Pettersson's season at all just temper expectations for him leapfrogging these guys who were expected to be top 10 players since they were 15)

the Swiss league is mostly not Swiss players, just a decent European pro league that collects players from all over where they can make a good living. The KHL and SHL are on the top tier, then Liiga, then the NLA, Allsvenskan is akin to the MHL in Russia, sort of like comparing the OHL to the AHL domestically - a lot of fanfare for the future stars that pass through the OHL, but a way higher level of play when it's all men

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

The Pettersson hype is getting out of control.

 

[Yasuo]

Do people not realize Pettersson is shooting 27%? That is extremely unsustainable. NHL average is what - less than half of that? His PP scoring is good but he is unsustainable from a shooting perspective. I think he is a GREAT young player but I dont put his unsustainable play above Matthews and Eichel. I think you are going to see his scoring rate go down - and I dont think he ends the season above a PPG.

Matthews is shooting 25% are you blind or? Pettersson production is more sustainable Matthews on ice sh% is almost 15% he's been really lucky so far this year

 

[sufferer]

I could just as easily see it Pattersson in 5 years. My growing concern with Matthews and Eichel, at this point in their careers, is their inability to remain healthy.

Three of a kind.

 

[LTJD]

the Swiss league is mostly not Swiss players, just a decent European pro league that collects players from all over where they can make a good living. The KHL and SHL are on the top tier, then Liiga, then the NLA, Allsvenskan is akin to the MHL in Russia, sort of like comparing the OHL to the AHL domestically - a lot of fanfare for the future stars that pass through the OHL, but a way higher level of play when it's all men

Why even comment things you clearly have no idea of? The Swiss teams are limited to 4 foreigners in a game. Most players are NOT foreigners, because of the rules the ones that are, are high quality and well payed.

MHL is a junior hockey league whereas Hockeyallsvenskan is not.

Last year EP's sh% in the regular season was 21.24%(44GP) and 34.48%(13GP) in the play-offs. He is obviously at an extremely high rate so far this season, but I'm sure due to his style of play he will be above average in his career. What he's been doing the last two years in Sweden is nothing short of spectacular.

3 great players that will be among the best for a long time.

 

[BlueBaron]

One of those players is not like the others.