Eichel, Matthews, Pettersson in 5 years

[Icebreakers]

Do people not realize Pettersson is shooting 27%? That is extremely unsustainable. NHL average is what - less than half of that? His PP scoring is good but he is unsustainable from a shooting perspective. I think he is a GREAT young player but I dont put his unsustainable play above Matthews and Eichel. I think you are going to see his scoring rate go down - and I dont think he ends the season above a PPG.

EP isn't a volume shooter. Matthews sh% is 24 so...


Marner and Rielly has more shots than EP and EP shot is miles better.


Matthews has more shots and he's played 11 less games lol. As his sh% goes down he will take more shots. His sh % should never dip below mid to high teens unless if it's a down year.

 

[CowbellConray]

He doesn't take low % shots

.......... Let me give you a table here to help you understand why he WILL drop in shooting % significantly:

1.	Steven Stamkos	2008-09	16.78
2.	Mark Scheifele	2011-12	15.73
3.	Brad Marchand	2009-10	15.48
4.	Adam Henrique	2010-11	15.37
5.	Sean Monahan	2013-14	15.17
6.	Sidney Crosby	2005-06	14.58
7.	Nikita Kucherov	2013-14	14.56
8.	Anders Lee	2012-13	14.54
9.	Thomas Vanek	2005-06	14.28
10.	Jonathan Toews	2007-08	14.13

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Those are the top 10 career shooting % among active players. Pettersson is 27.8%. Assuming he drops to 14% (still top 15 among active players) he is at 31 points in 37 games. His stats so far are an anomaly - and won't last for the entire year.

Boeser is shooting at his career average, and unless his other winger starts shooting above 20% for the rest of the year he won't be able to drop in shooting % and sustain his current points percentage.

Just under a PPG is nothing to be ashamed of, and would be right in line with the great young players of the game - but to say he is a 90 point player because he is shooting at a very very unrealistic rate is being obtuse.

Also, he doesn't shoot that much for a top goal scorer - he ranks around 175th in shots per game (2.1).

Unless he doubles his shots, finds teammates who put the puck in the net at an unsustainable rate, or defies all odds and shoots at an NHL career record shooting% of 28%, he won't score at this rate.

 

[CowbellConray]

EP isn't a volume shooter. Matthews sh% is 24 so...


Marner and Rielly has more shots than EP and EP shot is miles better.


Matthews has more shots and he's played 11 less games lol. As his sh% goes down he will take more shots. His sh % should never dip below mid to high teens unless if it's a down year.

Matthews will drop in shooting% as well but his wrist shot is the best in the world, and he plays on an absolutely stacked offensive team with multiple ppg players - he will be able to produce more consistently with less burden compared to Pettersson

 

[Icebreakers]

Matthews will drop in shooting% as well but his wrist shot is the best in the world, and he plays on an absolutely stacked offensive team with multiple ppg players - he will be able to produce more consistently with less burden compared to Pettersson

Well EP has finally got a partner in Boeser going forward. Took some time since Boeser was out like 12 games. EP is better everywhere else besides the wrist shot, and even then his wrist shot is elite.

EP also doesnt even have an elite offensive D. Hughes will be able to feed him the puck a lot more than Edler and Hutton can. People still sleepy on Petey is hilarious. Guys a legit franchise calibre player.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Well EP has finally got a partner in Boeser going forward. Took some time since Boeser was out like 12 games. EP is better everywhere else besides the wrist shot, and even then his wrist shot is elite.

EP also doesnt even have an elite offensive D. Hughes will be able to feed him the puck a lot more than Edler and Hutton can. People still sleepy on Petey is hilarious. Guys a legit franchise calibre player.

Agreed. I think its fair to say that EP needs to create more of his own offence than Matthews but I think it's also fair to say that he's better at doing that. And he's a better playmaker. The lack of a Rielly and Gardiner to set up EP is somewhat compensated by those advantages and the arrival of Hughes especially on the PP should be huge. The one advantage that Matthews does have is that he has the Tavares/Marner line to take some of the pressure off him and other teams probably focus more on that line. On Vancouver the entire focus is on shutting down the EP/Boeser line. Which makes his rookie season all the more remarkable.

 

[CowbellConray]

Well EP has finally got a partner in Boeser going forward. Took some time since Boeser was out like 12 games. EP is better everywhere else besides the wrist shot, and even then his wrist shot is elite.

EP also doesnt even have an elite offensive D. Hughes will be able to feed him the puck a lot more than Edler and Hutton can. People still sleepy on Petey is hilarious. Guys a legit franchise calibre player.

1) Boeser is scoring with the same shooting% as last year - I dont expect it to jump up significantly over the rest of the season
2) We still don't know what Hughes will be able to do in the NHL - and it will take a few years for him to become what we know Reilly is in Toronto
3) To say EP has better board work or net presence compared to Matthews is being quite ignorant - Matthews is a bull on his skates
4) I never said Pettersson isn't a GREAT young player - but I dont think he is Eichel/Matthews level yet and I dont see enough to say he will be better in 5 years - I think he is closer to Barkov

I have provided several stats explaining why Pettersson is scoring at an unsustainable rate - and the response from 3 people has been "EP is just so smart he will continue to score at the same rate (by his masterful shot selection or amazing skill)".... but not one metric to show sustainability.

 

[CascadiaPuck]

Do people not realize Pettersson is shooting 27%? That is extremely unsustainable. NHL average is what - less than half of that? His PP scoring is good but he is unsustainable from a shooting perspective. I think he is a GREAT young player but I dont put his unsustainable play above Matthews and Eichel. I think you are going to see his scoring rate go down - and I dont think he ends the season above a PPG.

Of course his SH% will drop. But his shooting volume can go up as well. Also, his supporting cast will improve - both in terms of players he gets to play with (maybe Q. Hughes) and in terms of players on other lines forcing teams to split their D focus (the Canucks are just starting to build around the new core). Plus we're talking about a guy playing his first season on smaller ice. You're sleeping on Pettersson big-time if you think what you're seeing right now is a product of an unsustainable shooting percentage.

* * *

Overall, I think it's too early to make a call between the three players in the OP. Pettersson is only ~40 games into his career, Matthews has never cleared 70 points, and Eichel had a terrible team around him for a few years, but these guys are now very clearly showing that they are capable of being high producing players. I see them all as being possible 100+ pt players at their peak. Fans of all three teams are (rightly) high on their respective guys.

 

[Icebreakers]

1) Boeser is scoring with the same shooting% as last year - I dont expect it to jump up significantly over the rest of the season
2) We still don't know what Hughes will be able to do in the NHL - and it will take a few years for him to become what we know Reilly is in Toronto
3) To say EP has better board work or net presence compared to Matthews is being quite ignorant - Matthews is a bull on his skates
4) I never said Pettersson isn't a GREAT young player - but I dont think he is Eichel/Matthews level yet and I dont see enough to say he will be better in 5 years - I think he is closer to Barkov

I have provided several stats explaining why Pettersson is scoring at an unsustainable rate - and the response from 3 people has been "EP is just so smart he will continue to score at the same rate (by his masterful shot selection or amazing skill)".... but not one metric to show sustainability.

Theres no metric because hes a freak of nature. EP will continue to get stronger and win more board battles. Seriously, I bet he has a harder shot than Matthews while weighing like 40 pounds less. You are pessimistic and throwing around "we dont knows". EP will be a franchise player. That i know. His shooting % will obviously drop more but it will be because he takes more shots.


I know your negatively biased against EP because of this post

"Those are the top 10 career shooting % among active players. Pettersson is 27.8%. Assuming he drops to 14% (still top 15 among active players) he is at 31 points in 37 games. His stats so far are an anomaly - and won't last for the entire year."


Like i said before. You cant just drop 11 goals from his damn total without adjusting for more shots taken due to less goals. Thats the dumbest thing ive ever heard in my life. Yeah why dont we drop 12 goals from OVI's total too because he shoots 12% career wise. He will never hit 50 goals! Or why dont we drop Matthews by 6 goals because hes also shooting 24%.


EP has 79 shots on goal this year. He takes less shots than Rielly and Marner and has less shots than Matthews while playing 11 more games. If your snake bitten, you WILL shoot more its a fact.

Your metric only "works" assuming EP will somehow only average 79 shots on goal for the first 37 games of each season. To put this into perspective, thats how much Henrik shot during his prime. EP's backhander in water has more velocity than Henrik's slapper.

 

[CowbellConray]

Of course his SH% will drop. But his shooting volume can go up as well. Also, his supporting cast will improve - both in terms of players he gets to play with (maybe Q. Hughes) and in terms of players on other lines forcing teams to split their D focus (the Canucks are just starting to build around the new core). Plus we're talking about a guy playing his first season on smaller ice. You're sleeping on Pettersson big-time if you think what you're seeing right now is a product of an unsustainable shooting percentage.

* * *

Overall, I think it's too early to make a call between the three players in the OP. Pettersson is only ~40 games into his career, Matthews has never cleared 70 points, and Eichel had a terrible team around him for a few years, but these guys are now very clearly showing that they are capable of being high producing players. I see them all as being possible 100+ pt players at their peak. Fans of all three teams are (rightly) high on their respective guys.

I certainly don't attribute his entire scope of play to an unsustainable shooting% - that would be naive.

But I do think we are jumping the gun on his play a little due to him shooting 28%.

Is he a top 10 young player? Yes
Does he have 3 or 4 high end offensive qualities to his game? Yes
Do I think he has a better wrist shot than Matthews? No
Do I think he skates better than Eichel? No
Do I think he has better board play than Eiche OR Matthews? No
Do I like to create long repetitive lists in posts? Maybe...

Again - and I can only state it three times - I think Pettersson is a great young player. Is he currently a 90 point center? I dont think he is and I think the unsustainable aspects of his game cause biased fans to get excited (as I probably would) and say he is.

To clear the air - I think Pettersson is a 70-75 point center if he plays the entire season right now. With 5 years and a change in supporting cast - I think he can be a 90+ point guy. But he came into the league in the highest scoring season since I think 07/08 and is flat out lucky to have 22 goals. I think as scoring reverts back to the mean league wide, and he start to shoot closer to league average he wont see a huge jump in points when he gets 1 more high end offensive d-man (Hughes) and maybe a better forward group. Whereas the Leafs will continue to have a top 3 forward core and Reilly guaranteed for the next 5 years and the Sabres have Dahlin on the backend AND Eichel is shooting below his career average.

But I am not angry at Canucks fans saying EP is great - I just have my own opinion. But I respect anyone who says all 3 are young stars of the game - because they definitely are.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

.......... Let me give you a table here to help you understand why he WILL drop in shooting % significantly:

1.	Steven Stamkos	2008-09	16.78
2.	Mark Scheifele	2011-12	15.73
3.	Brad Marchand	2009-10	15.48
4.	Adam Henrique	2010-11	15.37
5.	Sean Monahan	2013-14	15.17
6.	Sidney Crosby	2005-06	14.58
7.	Nikita Kucherov	2013-14	14.56
8.	Anders Lee	2012-13	14.54
9.	Thomas Vanek	2005-06	14.28
10.	Jonathan Toews	2007-08	14.13

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Those are the top 10 career shooting % among active players. Pettersson is 27.8%. Assuming he drops to 14% (still top 15 among active players) he is at 31 points in 37 games. His stats so far are an anomaly - and won't last for the entire year.

Boeser is shooting at his career average, and unless his other winger starts shooting above 20% for the rest of the year he won't be able to drop in shooting % and sustain his current points percentage.

Just under a PPG is nothing to be ashamed of, and would be right in line with the great young players of the game - but to say he is a 90 point player because he is shooting at a very very unrealistic rate is being obtuse.

Also, he doesn't shoot that much for a top goal scorer - he ranks around 175th in shots per game (2.1).

Unless he doubles his shots, finds teammates who put the puck in the net at an unsustainable rate, or defies all odds and shoots at an NHL career record shooting% of 28%, he won't score at this rate.

This may be the most simplistic analysis I've seen. People tend to latch onto one stat and run an entire argument out of it. Of course his shooting percentage will eventually drop. And his shots will increase. And his assists will rise as Boeser continues to score goals at an elite rate as he has done through his career to date. EP is improving his game as the year has moved along and his points per game will likely also increase as his ice time has gone up. He's not even one of the highest minute per games guys on the team yet. A lower shooting percentage should have negligible impact on his point numbers.
He's already a great all round playmaker and shooter. If you think he ends up as just under a PPG then I don't think you've been paying attention to the player. He just keeps getting better.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Of course his SH% will drop. But his shooting volume can go up as well. Also, his supporting cast will improve - both in terms of players he gets to play with (maybe Q. Hughes) and in terms of players on other lines forcing teams to split their D focus (the Canucks are just starting to build around the new core). Plus we're talking about a guy playing his first season on smaller ice. You're sleeping on Pettersson big-time if you think what you're seeing right now is a product of an unsustainable shooting percentage.

* * *

Overall, I think it's too early to make a call between the three players in the OP. Pettersson is only ~40 games into his career, Matthews has never cleared 70 points, and Eichel had a terrible team around him for a few years, but these guys are now very clearly showing that they are capable of being high producing players. I see them all as being possible 100+ pt players at their peak. Fans of all three teams are (rightly) high on their respective guys.

Exactly. He's taken only 79 shots on goal in 37 games. He just needs to increase that number and the goal should stay close to the same.

 

[the mcdavid era]

Pettersson is a very good player but the underlying stats show he’s on an unsustainable run. Still a great player but he will come back down to earth sooner rather than later

 

[Icebreakers]

EP will score 40 one day on 15-18% shooting instead of 27% shooting. How's that? The first ones been done before so let's put away those metrics and stop acting like you have PHDs in analytics

 

[WetcoastOrca]

EP will score 40 one day on 15-18% shooting instead of 27% shooting. How's that? The first ones been done before so let's put away those metrics and stop acting like you have PHDs in analytics

Yeah people said that Boeser's shooting was also unsustainable last year and guess what? He started shooting more and the goals stayed the same. Pettersson has one of the best shots in the game. 40 goals could happen as early as this year but if not it will be soon.

 

[CowbellConray]

EP will score 40 one day on 15-18% shooting instead of 27% shooting. How's that? The first ones been done before so let's put away those metrics and stop acting like you have PHDs in analytics

Shoot, if only my lower degree in Analytics and my career in analytics was enough instead of a PHD.

I do think Pettersson will score 35-40 in a season - but it won’t be on 27.8% shooting a season and him scoring 40 a season wasn’t my argument anyway. I’m not bashing Pettersson in the way you think I am. I just don’t think he is quite the player a lot of canucks fans think he is - and that’s ok. The margins of difference we are arguing are minimal.

 

[Randy Randerson]

EP will score 40 one day on 15-18% shooting instead of 27% shooting. How's that? The first ones been done before so let's put away those metrics and stop acting like you have PHDs in analytics

you're setting the bar awfully low for what you think qualifies someone for a PHD in analytics. Pettersson will have to significantly increase his shot volume to do what you're saying here (literally work backwards from the numbers you gave, 222 shots over a full season shooting 18% to get to 40 goals and that's assuming the highest end of the range, it would be 267 shots at 15%), which would be up from his current pace of 175 shots/82 games, or a 27% increase in shots on net minumum. It's not normal for that to happen for a player that is already getting all of the opportunity that the team has to offer (nearly 4 mins/night of PP time, talented linemates, very offensive oriented usage). The first unit PP is not likely to increase it's pucks on net by that much as the team improves, so there would need to be a larger than 27% increase 5v5, and there probably will be some but that's a hefty order that's very different than the normal path for a player in Pettersson's position (new face of the franchise for a rebuilding, bad, team, already getting big opportunity)

 

[Icebreakers]

you're setting the bar awfully low for what you think qualifies someone for a PHD in analytics. Pettersson will have to significantly increase his shot volume to do what you're saying here (literally work backwards from the numbers you gave, 222 shots over a full season shooting 18% to get to 40 goals and that's assuming the highest end of the range, it would be 267 shots at 15%), which would be up from his current pace of 175 shots/82 games, or a 27% increase in shots on net minumum. It's not normal for that to happen for a player that is already getting all of the opportunity that the team has to offer (nearly 4 mins/night of PP time, talented linemates, very offensive oriented usage). The first unit PP is not likely to increase it's pucks on net by that much as the team improves, so there would need to be a larger than 27% increase 5v5, and there probably will be some but that's a hefty order that's very different than the normal path for a player in Pettersson's position (new face of the franchise for a rebuilding, bad, team, already getting big opportunity)

That was not literal. Im taking shots at people who think only they know what an unsustainable shooting % is while ignoring context. EP barely shoots so its not that big of a stretch to get a lot more shots. For reference, if he shot as much as Marner and kept his goal total, he would be shooting at 20%. Which is a lot closer to a sustainable percentage. For reference, he shoots as much as Jordan Martinook and Lucas Walmark. 3rd/4th line players. His minutes in all offensive situations will continue to increase as his career progresses meaning more and more opportunities.

EP would only have to average one more shot per game to be able to hit 44 goals in 82 games with a shooting % of 18%. One more shot per game (3 shots per game) is definitely not out of the question if he really wanted to. That would put him tied for 27th in shots from last year. Tied with guys like Blake Wheeler who isnt a shoot first guy.

You are extremely narrow minded if you dont think he can 246 shots off in the prime of his career.

Even at 15% which it would pace him for 37 goals.

 

[Randy Randerson]

That was not literal. Im taking shots at people who think only they know what an unsustainable shooting % is while ignoring context. EP barely shoots so its not that big of a stretch to get a lot more shots. For reference, if he shot as much as Marner and kept his goal total, he would be shooting at 20%. Which is a lot closer to a sustainable percentage.

EP would only have to average one more shot per game to be able to hit 44 goals in 82 games with a shooting % of 18%. One more shot per game (3 shots per game) is definitely not out of the question if he really wanted to. That would put him tied for 27th in shots from last year. Tied with guys like Blake Wheeler who isnt a shoot first guy.

You are extremely narrow minded if you dont think he can 246 shots off in the prime of his career.

Even at 15% which it would pace him for 37 goals.

one more shot a game is a huge difference, I think if that was just within a player's control there would be a lot more guys adding a shot per game to their totals. If Matthews just added that, he would be challenging for the top spot in total shots in the league, for reference - and for reference, Matthews' shot production has decreased slightly since his rookie year which is fairly common (to float within a range, not a steady movement in one direction or the other)

And it's not that I don't think he can, he would be in the minority if he did. Go through the last 10 years worth of drafts, find guys that are similar tiers of players that got premium opportunity in their rookie years and see how many have that kind of increase in shot volume, I couldn't find one. Stamkos did it, but from a 46pt rookie year with 50% more ice time, and that won't be on the table for Pettersson as he's already getting 1st line minutes and most of the PP time. So it's not about my willingness to consider the outcomes, its literally looking at the outcomes of the same tier of guy and letting my opinion be formed by what they have done rather than deciding what Pettersson is then choosing which evidence supports that idea

 

[CascadiaPuck]

I certainly don't attribute his entire scope of play to an unsustainable shooting% - that would be naive.

But I do think we are jumping the gun on his play a little due to him shooting 28%.

Is he a top 10 young player? Yes
Does he have 3 or 4 high end offensive qualities to his game? Yes
Do I think he has a better wrist shot than Matthews? No
Do I think he skates better than Eichel? No
Do I think he has better board play than Eiche OR Matthews? No
Do I like to create long repetitive lists in posts? Maybe...

Again - and I can only state it three times - I think Pettersson is a great young player. Is he currently a 90 point center? I dont think he is and I think the unsustainable aspects of his game cause biased fans to get excited (as I probably would) and say he is.

To clear the air - I think Pettersson is a 70-75 point center if he plays the entire season right now. With 5 years and a change in supporting cast - I think he can be a 90+ point guy. But he came into the league in the highest scoring season since I think 07/08 and is flat out lucky to have 22 goals. I think as scoring reverts back to the mean league wide, and he start to shoot closer to league average he wont see a huge jump in points when he gets 1 more high end offensive d-man (Hughes) and maybe a better forward group. Whereas the Leafs will continue to have a top 3 forward core and Reilly guaranteed for the next 5 years and the Sabres have Dahlin on the backend AND Eichel is shooting below his career average.

But I am not angry at Canucks fans saying EP is great - I just have my own opinion. But I respect anyone who says all 3 are young stars of the game - because they definitely are.

Great talent announces itself from the outset. When Matthews potted four goals in his first game and played the way he did to start his rookie season, you knew he would do well. Obviously the sample size needs to grow, you want to see signs of improvement, etc. But when you see a guy go #1 overall and then that sort of thing happen, you know you're looking at a big deal.

It's similar for Pettersson. The guy didn't go #1 overall, but his standout play in the SHL last year - besting historical performances by players who became true NHL greats - served huge notice. And his play through the first half of this season (some of the greatest production among players entering the league in the last 25 years, etc.) is outstanding. Assuming no injuries, if he falls to 70 pts, that would be 28 points in his remaining 39 games. Watching him play and what he's doing to other teams night in and night out - not just putting up points - that would be a very weird outcome.

(Also, yes, scoring overall is up this year. It also peaked in the rookie season for Ovechkin and Crosby, but obviously that doesn't diminish what they did or who they became.)

 

[Icebreakers]

one more shot a game is a huge difference, I think if that was just within a player's control there would be a lot more guys adding a shot per game to their totals. If Matthews just added that, he would be challenging for the top spot in total shots in the league, for reference - and for reference, Matthews' shot production has decreased slightly since his rookie year which is fairly common (to float within a range, not a steady movement in one direction or the other)

And it's not that I don't think he can, he would be in the minority if he did. Go through the last 10 years worth of drafts, find guys that are similar tiers of players that got premium opportunity in their rookie years and see how many have that kind of increase in shot volume, I couldn't find one. Stamkos did it, but from a 46pt rookie year with 50% more ice time, and that won't be on the table for Pettersson as he's already getting 1st line minutes and most of the PP time. So it's not about my willingness to consider the outcomes, its literally looking at the outcomes of the same tier of guy and letting my opinion be formed by what they have done rather than deciding what Pettersson is then choosing which evidence supports that idea

The more shots you currently have, the harder it is to increase shots on goal because there is a cap for scoring opportunities in a 60 minute hockey game. For example, increasing 4 shots per game to 5 would be exponentially more difficult to increase it from 1 to 2.

So you cant apply "one more shot per game" across all players. It would obviously be harder for Matthews to do the same since he would be going from 3 shots per game to 4, versus 2 to 3 for EP

EP is so young into his career dramatic changes can happen.

Elias Pettersson does not average #1 minutes at even strength, he averages 14:16 minutes of ice time at even strength (109th in NHL among forwards). That will probably grow to 16-17.

Top top offensive players get considerably more ice time. Rantanen and Mackinnon get 3-4 minutes per game more and they dont kill penalties either.

 

[Randy Randerson]

The more shots you currently have, the harder it is to increase shots on goal because there is a cap for scoring opportunities in a 60 minute hockey game. For example, increasing 4 shots per game to 5 would be exponentially more difficult to increase it from 1 to 2.

So you cant apply "one more shot per game" across all players. It would obviously be harder for Matthews to do the same since he would be going from 3 shots per game to 4, versus 2 to 3 for EP

EP is so young into his career dramatic changes can happen.

Elias Pettersson does not average #1 minutes at even strength, he averages 14:16 minutes of ice time at even strength (109th in NHL among forwards). That will probably grow to 16-17.


Top top offensive players get considerably more ice time. Rantanen and Mackinnon get 3-4 minutes per game more and they dont kill penalties either.

I think you're assuming that there's a finite number of shots available or that the wealth of them is evenly distributed among teams/lines, and that doesn't seem to be true. If you look at the league's best lines, there's often multiple high volume shooters on those lines. I think what you're presenting here is a logical fallacy, but if you have some backup for it I'll gladly have a look

And I agree that anything could happen, including Pettersson being better than McDavid, but I don't think it's wise to bet on outliers. He's a terrific young player and looking like he was worthy of a #1 pick, if I were a fan in Vancouver I'd be ecstatic about the value my organization got out of a #5oa and not worry about a dick measuring contest against other teams' guys

109th in ES toi/game is just below 1st line 5v5 minutes, and yes that will grow a little bit but I don't think 30% is reasonable, so his shots per minute would still need to grow substantially.

Rantanen and MacKinnon are anomalies for opportunity, there's a handful of players that get what they do (Ovechkin, Burns, Karlsson, that might be it) and Pettersson is already there for PP time which is the big one. Matthews/Eichel have never gotten that, so if you're going to credit Pettersson for it in a comparison with them you'll have to adjust for them too

 

[Slapshot_11]

EP had high shooting % last year as well.. more analysis needs to be done!!

 

[Icebreakers]

I think you're assuming that there's a finite number of shots available or that the wealth of them is evenly distributed among teams/lines, and that doesn't seem to be true. If you look at the league's best lines, there's often multiple high volume shooters on those lines. I think what you're presenting here is a logical fallacy, but if you have some backup for it I'll gladly have a look

And I agree that anything could happen, including Pettersson being better than McDavid, but I don't think it's wise to bet on outliers. He's a terrific young player and looking like he was worthy of a #1 pick, if I were a fan in Vancouver I'd be ecstatic about the value my organization got out of a #5oa and not worry about a dick measuring contest against other teams' guys

Well the point is to say that saying his shooting % is unsustainable to essentially undermine his actual productivity while ignoring context is hilarious. Like you guys are completely comical saying "if he shot 15 % he would only have 32 points right now" Like shit boys, we know 27% is unsustainable, thats not what we are trying to argue, but he isnt losing 10 goals for no reason. Thats the most biased piece of statistical analysis ive ever seen. I guarantee you his shots will go up over the prime of his career, and it wont be by .1 shots per game. You may as well quote this and put it on your wall.

Man... If Matthews was shooting at his career rate he would only have 13 goals and 29 points right now..guaranteed thats statistical proof!

The offense flows through EP in Vancouver. No one is in the same stratosphere as him offensively, he can get all the looks that he chooses.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Well the point is to say that saying his shooting % is unsustainable to essentially undermine his actual productivity while ignoring context is hilarious. Like you guys are completely comical saying "if he shot 15 % he would only have 32 points right now" Like **** boys, we know 27% is unsustainable, thats not what we are trying to argue, but he isnt losing 10 goals for no reason. Thats the most biased piece of statistical analysis ive ever seen. I guarantee you his shots will go up over the prime of his career, and it wont be by .1 shots per game. You may as well quote this and put it on your wall.

The offense flows through EP in Vancouver. No one is in the same stratosphere as him offensively, he can get all the looks that he chooses.

the fact that he's in a poll, and winning it, with two huge pedigree #1oa type face of the franchise centers who are already top 10 NHL'ers sort of points in the opposite direction in terms of Van fans accepting that his underlying numbers are unsustainable

I'm not trying to say that he's going to be a run of the mill top 6 forward or anything, but I'd be very surprised if this poll was run again in 18 months to the same result

 

[Icebreakers]

the fact that he's in a poll, and winning it, with two huge pedigree #1oa type face of the franchise centers who are already top 10 NHL'ers sort of points in the opposite direction in terms of Van fans accepting that his underlying numbers are unsustainable

I'm not trying to say that he's going to be a run of the mill top 6 forward or anything, but I'd be very surprised if this poll was run again in 18 months to the same result

EP is also a first overall franchise talent. Its not his fault scouts didnt draft him because he was 160 pounds. Look at Hischier vs EP polls in the beginning of the season.

Look, winning a poll on HF boards means absolutely nothing. Whether Matthews, Eichel or EP is better i really dont care. The point is that I think there wont be MUCH separating these players going forward. You would take 100 dollars over 99.95 dollars 100% of the time right?