Early look for 2021 draft

[Henkka]

That was the other comparison. I like Kent Johnson but if his floor is a 2C similar to Kyle Turris then I'd rather have Beniers who I think is a safe floor of a 2C similar to Larkin. There may not be as much flash to his skillset but I think he'll end up as the more dependable player of the two.

That's the problem. Kent Johnson could be more of a winger and Beniers feels like another Larkin.

There could be no 1st center on this draft. Or if someone feels that Beniers is that 1st center, we already have that 1st Center in Larkin.

Think we'll draft the goalie.

 

[Preposterone]

Johnson reminds me more of Hemsky than Turris stylistically. I didnt follow Turris back when he was playing BCHL though.

 

[Frk It]

Johnson and Beniers look like good forwards to me. Not a lot of teenagers can be this effective in their first action in the NCAA. Wouldn’t be too worried with player comps.

 

[Martinez]

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

That's the problem. Kent Johnson could be more of a winger and Beniers feels like another Larkin.

There could be no 1st center on this draft. Or if someone feels that Beniers is that 1st center, we already have that 1st Center in Larkin.

Think we'll draft the goalie.

That's kind of what it looks/feels like to me.

I think William Eklund has 1st line upside and would consider both he and Beniers the two best forwards of the draft. They also feel like guys that would have been just outside of the top 10 in 2019 or 2020's drafts.

If, and it's a big if, we were to consider trading our first rounder to speed up the rebuild then this is the year to do so. There's a few players I like but I think everybody's crystal balls are going to be pretty foggy when drafting this year due to the pandemic.

 

[Hen Kolland]

The disrespect to what Kent Johnson has shown as a top forward in this class. Basically for anyone who wanted a redo of the Zegras possibility, but you don't have to give up Seider...

 

[HoweFan]

Does Samuel Helenius interest anyone? He’s a 6:06 centre with good straightaway speed. Would maybe get him with our first pick in the second round. I kind of had Sebastian Cossa slotted here for us though.

 

[raymond23]

The disrespect to what Kent Johnson has shown as a top forward in this class. Basically for anyone who wanted a redo of the Zegras possibility, but you don't have to give up Seider...

It is a little surprising.

This kid is putting up a ppg+ in his d-1 season. Does anyone know how often that happens in college?

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

He's pretty raw, but I still think Luke Hughes is our best bet to partner for Seider on a future top pairing. I'd like to see more of Edvinsson though.

The disrespect to what Kent Johnson has shown as a top forward in this class. Basically for anyone who wanted a redo of the Zegras possibility, but you don't have to give up Seider...

100%, Johnson has really started to adjust nicely to NCAA hockey. His performance against MSU was as about as dominant as I've seen a freshman in this league. The Zegras comp makes a lot of sense. Zegras has a bit more snarl to his game, whereas Johnson seems a bit more mellow, but their playmaking tendencies are spot on.

 

[Hen Kolland]

It is a little surprising.

This kid is putting up a ppg+ in his d-1 season. Does anyone know how often that happens in college?

I’ve made this point previously, but statistically this is how I like to put it into perspective:

Newhook is a late January birthday. His draft year was in the BCHL, and his D+1 at Boston College.

Johnson is a mid October birthday. So Johnson is maybe 3-3.5 months older than Newhook was at the same point in their draft cycles. Johnson played in the BCHL in his D-1, and for Michigan in his draft year. So when Johnson is doing this in the respective leagues, he’s actually 8-9 months YOUNGER than Newhook was when he did his.

Newhook BCHL: 38 G, 102 P in 53 GP
Johnson BCHL: 41 G, 101 P in 52 GP

Newhook NCAA (19-20): 19 G, 42 P in 34 GP
Johnson NCAA: 3 G, 15 P in 13 GP

So statistically speaking, being roughly 3/4 of a year younger, Johnson has performed on a relative pace with Alex Newhook. Who is a fantastic prospect and has proven that he should have been taken well before 16th overall. I think part of his fall is due to playing in the BCHL and not having that exposure against higher level talent. We’ve seen Johnson make the jump, and do so successfully and looking regularly dangerous. He’s easily a top 5 pick for me at this point, and a real threat for #1.

 

[RedWingzz]

I think Kent Johnson is that #1 C we need.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

i’m leaning more towards johnson and eklund over the D prospects at the moment

 

[Vector Cereal]

It is a little surprising.

This kid is putting up a ppg+ in his d-1 season. Does anyone know how often that happens in college?

First round picks out of college are becoming more frequent but not very abundant. Here's the notable ones from the last decade.

2020 14th - Dylan Holloway 17 in 35 games = 0.49ppg
2018 4th - Brady Tkachuk 31 in 40 games = 0.78ppg
2018 7th - Quinn Hughes 29 in 37 games = 0.78ppg
2017 25th - Ryan Poehling 13 in 35 games = 0.37ppg
2016 14th - Charlie McAvoy 25 in 37 games = 0.68ppg
2016 15th - Luke Kunin 32 in 34 games = 0.94ppg
2015 2nd - Jack Eichel 71 in 40 games = 1.78ppg
2015 5th - Noah Hanifin 23 in 37 games = 0.62ppg
2015 8th - Zach Werenski 25 in 35 games = 0.71ppg
Pre 2015 there's not much notable, but I'll throw in Sheahan
2010 21st - Riley Sheahan 17 in 37 games = 0.46ppg

Obviously Eichel is in a league of his own, but at Johnson's pace he doesn't group with the rest of them either. College is harder to predict from just ppg, since size plays a bigger role there vs the CHL, and similarly in college you can't assume a projected first round pick is getting top minutes like in the CHL. Quality of competition can play a big role in college too, especially with the covid schedule.

 

[Martinez]

I’m warming up to Johnson, I just don’t see him as a center

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

First round picks out of college are becoming more frequent but not very abundant. Here's the notable ones from the last decade.

2020 14th - Dylan Holloway 17 in 35 games = 0.49ppg
2018 4th - Brady Tkachuk 31 in 40 games = 0.78ppg
2018 7th - Quinn Hughes 29 in 37 games = 0.78ppg
2017 25th - Ryan Poehling 13 in 35 games = 0.37ppg
2016 14th - Charlie McAvoy 25 in 37 games = 0.68ppg
2016 15th - Luke Kunin 32 in 34 games = 0.94ppg
2015 2nd - Jack Eichel 71 in 40 games = 1.78ppg
2015 5th - Noah Hanifin 23 in 37 games = 0.62ppg
2015 8th - Zach Werenski 25 in 35 games = 0.71ppg
Pre 2015 there's not much notable, but I'll throw in Sheahan
2010 21st - Riley Sheahan 17 in 37 games = 0.46ppg

Obviously Eichel is in a league of his own, but at Johnson's pace he doesn't group with the rest of them either. College is harder to predict from just ppg, since size plays a bigger role there vs the CHL, and similarly in college you can't assume a projected first round pick is getting top minutes like in the CHL. Quality of competition can play a big role in college too, especially with the covid schedule.

This is pretty interesting to see that the trend is the best players all score near 0.70 ppg or higher in college, defensemen included.

It also doesn't look like the future for Dylan Holloway is going to be too bright if this trend holds true.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Luke Hughes is my pick. Between him Seider and Hronek our D core would be set. 2022 is the draft for forwards.

 

[Frk It]

Luke Hughes is my pick. Between him Seider and Hronek our D core would be set. 2022 is the draft for forwards.

Yeah, I am tired of these warm bodies we throw out here at LD. (Most our defense is in general, but still....)

 

[RedHawkDown]

Yeah, I am tired of these warm bodies we throw out here at LD. (Most our defense is in general, but still....)

Yep. A defense of Hughes-Seider and Wallinder-Hronek as a top 4 would be fantastic. Wallinder can be replaced by literally any other D prospect we have that can manage to be a serviceable top 4 D. Or a FA signing (though I have a good feeling about Wallinder).

next year Shane Wright and brad Lambert are the big prizes...one of these two kids would nearly finalize our rebuild pieces. Would jsut need a long term goalie.

 

[Henkka]

Yeah, I am tired of these warm bodies we throw out here at LD. (Most our defense is in general, but still....)

LD is still the cheapest department to fill from UFA.

Why not draft the all other positions by yourself?

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

LD is still the cheapest department to fill from UFA.

Why not draft the all other positions by yourself?

Generally speaking, sure. But the left side of our defense is really rough, and legitimate top pairing guys don't make it to free agency that often. Even when they do, you're paying a ton for a guy usually in his late 20s/early 30s.

I'd love to add a blue-chip center prospect, but to me center and LHD are pretty much an equal need for our likely top 10 pick.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

BPA in the first, you can use it for tiebreakers, but drafting on position is asking for problems. We are getting better in the talent department, but we still need a lot more. I think we wind up with and LD or center but if they pick a winger or RD because of BPA I totally get that.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

BPA in the first, you can use it for tiebreakers, bit drafting on position is asking for problems. We are getting better in the talent department, but we still need a lot more. I think we wind up with and LD or center but if they pick a winger or RD because of BPA I totally get that.

For sure, if a guy like Clarke or Lysell is the absolute standout on your board then pull the trigger. But I think teams often don't have a clear-cut BPA on their boards, and I expect that to be particularly true this year due to the virus' impact on hockey.

In the draft, our primary goal should always be acquiring elite talent regardless of position. But you also need balance in your roster. The Wings' rostered LHD are brutal. Our LHD pipeline is okay-ish. If you're drafting top 10 and a LHD isn't even in the conversation then of course you don't force it, but if we're sitting at like #4OA and we rate Clarke, Lysell, and Hughes pretty close, I'd prefer to see us address the massive hole in our system.

 

[Frk It]

LD is still the cheapest department to fill from UFA.

Why not draft the all other positions by yourself?

What good LD have we ever gotten via free agency?

What makes us more appealing than other teams in free agency?

Even if there’s a perfect fit hitting free agency (Suter), you may not get them.

 

[lilidk]

i’m leaning more towards johnson and eklund over the D prospects at the moment

We really need center, but if the best available player is defenseman ,we should take defenseman and get high potential center by trade

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

We really need center, but if the best available player is defenseman ,we should take defenseman and get high potential center by trade

for sure but it just depends who they actually value as the BPA. Just take the best player i just happen to think it’s those guys