Player Discussion Duncan Keith

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

I hate the narrative, one even some of our fans are echoing, that Duncan Keith has been bad for multiple years consecutively.

I remember watching him against us in the 2020 playoffs and thinking he was completely dominating those important games against a very good Oilers team.

Didnt you see his analytics chart? Actually watching the games is such a nerd move

 

[Forgot About Drai]

Didnt you see his analytics chart? Actually watching the games is such a nerd move

Such a dumb post. Eye test is just as subjective and "incorrect" as analytics can be. Especially from fans.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

Such a dumb post. Eye test is just as subjective and "incorrect" as analytics can be. Especially from fans.

So we should just never discuss the play of a player...

 

[Forgot About Drai]

So we should just never discuss the play of a player...

No, Im saying there is no point in shutting down conversation based on how someone evaluates a player, whether it be analytics or eye test because both have their pros and faults.

Anyways, we should be basing our opinions on holistic approach of both analytics and eye test because that is clearly the best way to do it and the way the league is trending.

 

[McTonyBrar]

Such a dumb post. Eye test is just as subjective and "incorrect" as analytics can be. Especially from fans.

Not even close. I’ll take eye tests over analytics

 

[Forgot About Drai]

Not even close. I’ll take eye tests over analytics

Good for you/

Clearly the NHL and teams disagree with you as 99% of teams have invested very heavily into analytics. Its clearly a focus an huge part of evaluating players alongside the eye test. You may not like it, but its the truth.

Sorry to everyone, didnt mean to hijack the thread. This will be my last post about it (if you wanna debate, pms open). Heres to Keith having a great season.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Good for you/

Clearly the NHL and teams disagree with you as 99% of teams have invested very heavily into analytics. Its clearly a focus an huge part of evaluating players alongside the eye test. You may not like it, but its the truth.

Sorry to everyone, didnt mean to hijack the thread. This will be my last post about it (if you wanna debate, pms open). Heres to Keith having a great season.

And all those teams track way different stuff than we have access to.

 

[K1984]

If Keith was the "worst defenseman in the NHL last year" according to the analytics folks, I am left wondering why there aren't scores of people "dunking" on Josh Morrisey and his contract. Keith has a 1% WAR and Morrissey has a 2%. Is Morrissey the 2nd worst defenseman in the league?

Maybe, just maybe, it has to do with the team that these players play for that solicits the obnoxious, ridiculous, troll like "analysis?"

If Morrissey was an Oiler I know for a fact that it would be the talk of the boards. Instead there is a 10 page Jets page on the main boards without a peep, in fact Morrissey gets praised. These charts are mainly just used to back up criticism of everyone's favorite target, nobody knows a thing about what these actually mean.

 

[ManofSteel55]

5.5M though lmao

So he's overpaid. Big whoop. It's not my money. It's a pain that his cap hit is what it is, but I'm still happy he's in Edmonton and would rather have him out there than Caleb Jones.

 

[ManofSteel55]

If Keith was the "worst defenseman in the NHL last year" according to the analytics folks, I am left wondering why there aren't scores of people "dunking" on Josh Morrisey and his contract. Keith has a 1% WAR and Morrissey has a 2%. Is Morrissey the 2nd worst defenseman in the league?

Maybe, just maybe, it has to do with the team that these players play for that solicits the obnoxious, ridiculous, troll like "analysis?"

If Morrissey was an Oiler I know for a fact that it would be the talk of the boards. Instead there is a 10 page Jets page on the main boards without a peep, in fact Morrissey gets praised. These charts are mainly just used to back up criticism of everyone's favorite target, nobody knows a thing about what these actually mean.

Yeah, 90% of people who bring up WAR charts don't know what they actually mean anyway.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I'm not comparing. Your sole point in the post is it was a good interview. I mean in context of the Oilers who cares? Player interviews mean nothing.

The look of this is your trying to polish this shit deal, and not just in this thread. Take the Hawks glasses off for a moment. 38yr old Keith is no legend. He's an adequate defender put in the right spot. But I'd worry that the Oilers put him in the 2,3,spot.

He won't be in the 2 spot, that will be Barrie, on Nurse's side. Keith will be the #3 spot, and that's fine for where he is now.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Christ. Ference came in and did good interviews. How does this mean or indicate ANYTHING?

I mean whats the guy going to say? I want to get out of the Hawks team where theres expectation and go play on a disjointed team with terrible management where theres none?

You critique Tippet any day of the week and you're still supporting Holland and supporting this deal?

The only part of this deal that isn't worth supporting is his cap hit. We gave up next to nothing to get him, and he brings an upgrade to our 2nd defense pair, experience, and the type of leadership that teaches guys how to win when things get tough.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

im more worried about Keiths shart charts

 

[Drivesaitl]

The only part of this deal that isn't worth supporting is his cap hit. We gave up next to nothing to get him, and he brings an upgrade to our 2nd defense pair, experience, and the type of leadership that teaches guys how to win when things get tough.

You just resurrected posts from page 1 of the thread that were made like 7 weeks ago, lol. My opinion on the deal, and why it was made have altered since the Larsson situation occurred and Barrie was retained. The main premise of my concern is that I didn't want Keith at the expense of losing Larsson or Barrie. In the case of Larsson he took a dump on the team, and Barrie gave us the good home town discount.

I'm fine with what has transpired, also getting Ceci.

 

[AM]

Good for you/

Clearly the NHL and teams disagree with you as 99% of teams have invested very heavily into analytics. Its clearly a focus an huge part of evaluating players alongside the eye test. You may not like it, but its the truth.

Sorry to everyone, didnt mean to hijack the thread. This will be my last post about it (if you wanna debate, pms open). Heres to Keith having a great season.

Gamblers have their lucky hats too, doesnt mean they do anything.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Good for you/

Clearly the NHL and teams disagree with you as 99% of teams have invested very heavily into analytics. Its clearly a focus an huge part of evaluating players alongside the eye test. You may not like it, but its the truth.

Sorry to everyone, didnt mean to hijack the thread. This will be my last post about it (if you wanna debate, pms open). Heres to Keith having a great season.

I agree with this. The issue is, that most fans who rely on analytics just go and grab a chart and flaunt it around as if it is the be all and end all, even though they can't put into context what it truly means. Analytics has a place in player evaluation. So does the eye test. You can't rely completely on charts without the eye test, as there are situations where the analytics don't tell the story. Just as neglecting the analytics leaves you open to missing aspects of a player's ability as well. If it was as simple as "here's the chart", or "this is what I see", then scouting would be easy and GM's, scouts, and even fans wouldn't ever make mistakes.

 

[Oilhawks]

I agree with this. The issue is, that most fans who rely on analytics just go and grab a chart and flaunt it around as if it is the be all and end all, even though they can't put into context what it truly means. Analytics has a place in player evaluation. So does the eye test. You can't rely completely on charts without the eye test, as there are situations where the analytics don't tell the story. Just as neglecting the analytics leaves you open to missing aspects of a player's ability as well. If it was as simple as "here's the chart", or "this is what I see", then scouting would be easy and GM's, scouts, and even fans wouldn't ever make mistakes.

The problem with analytics (at least publicly accessible ones) is that a lot of people treat them like they do with baseball (a much more static game).

With player and puck tracking it might become more “objectively useful” but one needs to use a mix of both at this time to get an accurate picture of a player. Some “advanced stats” are better than others, too.

XGF is probably one of the better ones, IMO

 

[McDNicks17]

 

[Cloned]

How many of Tanev's passes were more than 10 feet?

 

[Tobias Kahun]

How many of Tanev's passes were more than 10 feet?

Tape to tape to his D partner when he realized he can't complete an outlet pass.

 

[Mr Positive]

The only part of this deal that isn't worth supporting is his cap hit. We gave up next to nothing to get him, and he brings an upgrade to our 2nd defense pair, experience, and the type of leadership that teaches guys how to win when things get tough.

That cap hit is the only issue, but specifically that last year. I hope we have a plan for that because it really seems like that cap hit needs to just be gone, no matter how things go for him this year.

But for now, this season, the numbers add up just fine and it's a great thing to have Keith here. It might be an almost ideal addition with benefits not just in general to upgrade the left side, but to be an example for Bouchard, Nurse, or just anyone really.

 

[Blue Line Turnover]

Tanev would have fit in well here; I'm okay with Ceci and think that overall team defense and balance will be better this year.

 

[Roof Daddy]

Not even close. I’ll take eye tests over analytics

Agreed.

When they have a metric for leadership/experience/poise, maybe I’ll give the analytic folk more consideration, but that same group is completely overlooking what Keith brings to the locker room/bench.

 

[bobbythebrain]

That cap hit is the only issue, but specifically that last year. I hope we have a plan for that because it really seems like that cap hit needs to just be gone, no matter how things go for him this year.

But for now, this season, the numbers add up just fine and it's a great thing to have Keith here. It might be an almost ideal addition with benefits not just in general to upgrade the left side, but to be an example for Bouchard, Nurse, or just anyone really.

Why does that caphit need to be gone? If he performs as really good #3, and is able to even cover if Nurse gets hurt.....the caphit is is a wash or even a deal.

Talking about his cap is moot until you see what he does

If he regains any form under our system...he's a #2 cuz it won't take much to out perform Barrie

 

[Mr Positive]

Why does that caphit need to be gone? If he performs as really good #3, and is able to even cover if Nurse gets hurt.....the caphit is is a wash or even a deal.

Talking about his cap is moot until you see what he does

If he regains any form under our system...he's a #2 cuz it won't take much to out perform Barrie

I'm willing to agree to wait and see, especially because he is here and I dont like to throw cold water on him, but it's just how I see it. And sure, he may be worth his cap hit but that doesnt alter the total cap outlook, especially if JP plays as well as I believe he can. I'd also like to hope we dont cheap out in net