Rumor: Dubas big game hunting? Where there is smoke there is Jakob Chychrun?

[Hellcat]

Forgive me for interrupting but I think it's an interesting question as these are quite likely to be our first two matchups this spring so I'll bite. Just as a rough estimate, I'd say we'd win a series against TB about 500 times out of 1000 and about 380 times out of 1000 against Boston. So yes we match up evenly against TB but against Boston, they'd be the favorites.

What about you, what would your answer be?

Really tough question to answer but I will take a stab at it. If its skill on skill, I think we win both series. If its coach vs coach we lose both series. If its goalie vs goalie we lose vs TB and its a toss up vs Boston. If its system vs system we lose both series. If we take the best player off each roster )all three teams) we beat both teams. if its the intangibles we lose both series.

Leafs need leadership, an elite 3rd line center for faceoffs and PK. A top 6 scoring power forward LW. Rielly to return to his form from a few seasons ago, Muzzin to return and play like Muzzin can. Sandin to sit and watch. Murray to return to how he played in November

 

[ACC1224]

My answer would be less than that. I really only meant it in a more rhetorical fashion anyway, you know to demonstrate a point to the guy. It's not 50/50 that's for sure, we've already had that demonstrated to us.

Honestly, the lack of mental fortitude this core has displayed, I'd say its closer to 2 out of every 10. Sorry 200/1000. That's against both tampa and boston. The leafs have no answer for the overall team grit/sandpaper/general iness of those two teams. And they don't seem to be learning from their experiences. And Dubas doesn't seem to want to graze his nice manicured hands rummaging through the bargain bin for some proper sandpaper.

So yeah I think they're gonna struggle.

Incidentally - why did you say 380 against boston and not a nice round number?

That has been the persistent issue for years.
They don't have the go through the wall attitude, they look for a way around it.

 

[Sypher04]

That has been the persistent issue for years.

First part sure. Second part, at times, but definitely not last year which is the only year that is truly relevant to now.

 

[ACC1224]

First part sure. Second part, at times, but definitely not last year which is the only year that is truly relevant to now.

It was better last year but still apparent at times.
Every year is relevant, IMO.

 

[Sypher04]

It was better last year but still apparent at times.
Every year is relevant, IMO.

To some extent. But moves made between Montreal and Tampa were made to change the make up of the team in certain ways, and they were largely effective. Going back to the Montreal series for comparison now, before we already made efforts to fix certain issues and certain core players showed growth in key areas, instead of comparing to the most recent data is illogical as I see it.

 

[Shanwhatplan]

Would more cap space be helpful, obviously, but the cap dollars we allocated to our bottom 6 last year was more than Tampa, so that doesn’t really line up with your comment. It’s not a function of cap allocation, as much as not having the right guys for the money spent.



I know this is a fun narrative people like to perpetuate, but it’s not rooted in reality at all.

Spending more doesn't always lead to more success. And you are right about having the right guys for the money spent. Should that blame go to Dubas? If not, then who?
So what are your thoughts on spending $40 million on 4 forwards, yet still needing help in the top 6?

 

[Peace Frog]

Would more cap space be helpful, obviously, but the cap dollars we allocated to our bottom 6 last year was more than Tampa, so that doesn’t really line up with your comment. It’s not a function of cap allocation, as much as not having the right guys for the money spent.



I know this is a fun narrative people like to perpetuate, but it’s not rooted in reality at all.

Keep in mind that Tampa has the big advantage of being in a “no tax” state. So they can pay less, but the players get more.

 

[Sypher04]

Spending more doesn't always lead to more success. And you are right about having the right guys for the money spent. Should that blame go to Dubas? If not, then who?
So what are your thoughts on spending $40 million on 4 forwards, yet still needing help in the top 6?

It is on Dubas/management and the scouts to find those right players yes. I’m neither convinced our cap allocation can or can’t work specifically, but we’ve been good enough more years than not to go further than we have. That’s not a cap issue as I see it.

Also, we don’t really need top 6 help imo. We need a third line than can offensively contribute more regularly when the games get tighter to relieve some of the pressure on the top 6 to score every goal

 

[Shanwhatplan]

It is on Dubas/management and the scouts to find those right players yes. I’m neither convinced our cap allocation can or can’t work specifically, but we’ve been good enough more years than not to go further than we have. That’s not a cap issue as I see it.

Also, we don’t really need top 6 help imo. We need a third line than can offensively contribute more regularly when the games get tighter to relieve some of the pressure on the top 6 to score every goal

I agree about needing more help on the 3rd line. Depending on the salary retention and what assets we would have to give up, what are your thoughts on acquiring Jonathan Toews and maybe Lafferty as well? I'm thinking a 3rd or 4th round draft pick for Toews (UFA after this year) and maybe a prospect like McMann for Lafferty?

 

[Gary Nylund]

My answer would be less than that. I really only meant it in a more rhetorical fashion anyway, you know to demonstrate a point to the guy. It's not 50/50 that's for sure, we've already had that demonstrated to us.

Honestly, the lack of mental fortitude this core has displayed, I'd say its closer to 2 out of every 10. Sorry 200/1000. That's against both tampa and boston. The leafs have no answer for the overall team grit/sandpaper/general iness of those two teams. And they don't seem to be learning from their experiences. And Dubas doesn't seem to want to graze his nice manicured hands rummaging through the bargain bin for some proper sandpaper.

So yeah I think they're gonna struggle.

Incidentally - why did you say 380 against boston and not a nice round number?

Fair enough. If you think their chances against TB are that bad, you should start putting aside some money to bet because I'm almost certain the bookmakers will give you roughly even money if you bet on TB.

As to your question, why would I not say 380? Isn't that a round enough number?

Really tough question to answer but I will take a stab at it. If its skill on skill, I think we win both series. If its coach vs coach we lose both series. If its goalie vs goalie we lose vs TB and its a toss up vs Boston. If its system vs system we lose both series. If we take the best player off each roster )all three teams) we beat both teams. if its the intangibles we lose both series.

Leafs need leadership, an elite 3rd line center for faceoffs and PK. A top 6 scoring power forward LW. Rielly to return to his form from a few seasons ago, Muzzin to return and play like Muzzin can. Sandin to sit and watch. Murray to return to how he played in November

It's team vs team.

To some extent. But moves made between Montreal and Tampa were made to change the make up of the team in certain ways, and they were largely effective. Going back to the Montreal series for comparison now, before we already made efforts to fix certain issues and certain core players showed growth in key areas, instead of comparing to the most recent data is illogical as I see it.

Yes the most recent data should always carry more weight, you'd think that everyone would get that by now.

It is on Dubas/management and the scouts to find those right players yes. I’m neither convinced our cap allocation can or can’t work specifically, but we’ve been good enough more years than not to go further than we have. That’s not a cap issue as I see it.

Also, we don’t really need top 6 help imo. We need a third line than can offensively contribute more regularly when the games get tighter to relieve some of the pressure on the top 6 to score every goal

I agree. The bottom 6 isn't great and I think it's possible that we can upgrade there without trading top prospects/picks. It just makes too much sense for it not to happen and I will be very surprised if Dubas doesn't make a more in that direction.

I agree about needing more help on the 3rd line. Depending on the salary retention and what assets we would have to give up, what are your thoughts on acquiring Jonathan Toews and maybe Lafferty as well?

If we could get Toews without giving up a 1st or Knies, he would be my top target. Unfortunately I think he might cost more than that.

 

[Shanwhatplan]

Fair enough. If you think their chances against TB are that bad, you should start putting aside some money to bet because I'm almost certain the bookmakers will give you roughly even money if you bet on TB.

As to your question, why would I not say 380? Isn't that a round enough number?


It's team vs team.


Yes the most recent data should always carry more weight, you'd think that everyone would get that by now.


I agree. The bottom 6 isn't great and I think it's possible that we can upgrade there without trading top prospects/picks. It just makes too much sense for it not to happen and I will be very surprised if Dubas doesn't make a more in that direction.


If we could get Toews without giving up a 1st or Knies, he would be my top target. Unfortunately I think he might cost more than that.

Even though he's a UFA after this year?
I also think we need a top 4 LHD so that we could bump Gio down to bottom 6, due to his age and the grind of playing every other night in the playoffs. Maybe McCabe of the Blackhawks?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Even though he's a UFA after this year?
I also think we need a top 4 LHD so that we could bump Gio down to bottom 6, due to his age and the grind of playing every other night in the playoffs. Maybe McCabe of the Blackhawks?

I don't know these guys would cost but I've read speculation that both Toews and McCabe might cost 1st round picks.

 

[kevsh]

I also think we need a top 4 LHD so that we could bump Gio down to bottom 6, due to his age and the grind of playing every other night in the playoffs.

I believe Dubas thinks this also, or at least he should, but the problem is if he can win the bidding war - and will the cost (1st rounder, +?) be worth it - as there will be a few teams looking for the same thing.

 

[Gilmour1996]

I like McCabe but also think trading Sandin would be a mistake.

 

[Darch]

Send Morgan Rielly to play on the wing, and get a real D. With that, you kill 2 birds with 1 stone!

 

[Shanwhatplan]

I don't know these guys would cost but I've read speculation that both Toews and McCabe might cost 1st round picks.

Right now I feel Toews and McCabe (and possibly Rafferty) might just be what we need to get us over the hump. What worries me is giving up a 1st round pick for a rental, Toews, unless we would be able to resign him for a bargain.
If Muzzin does retire, McCabe's contract would replace that, plus there'd be some left over to help elsewhere, so I wouldn't mind giving up a 1st round pick for him. And Lafferty is still signed for 1 more year at a very reasonable cap hit. The only thing that would still be missing is some snarl and grit in the bottom 6.

 

[Shanwhatplan]

I believe Dubas thinks this also, or at least he should, but the problem is if he can win the bidding war - and will the cost (1st rounder, +?) be worth it - as there will be a few teams looking for the same thing.

Yes, that's a tough one. Dubas has said he won't mortgage the future for rentals, so that probably takes Toews out of the picture. I'm not familiar enough with who might be available to play 3rd line center/wing who won't cost us a 1st rounder (just be a pure rental), or who is signed and would be worthy of a 1st round pick.

 

[TorMapleJays]

Forgive me for interrupting but I think it's an interesting question as these are quite likely to be our first two matchups this spring so I'll bite. Just as a rough estimate, I'd say we'd win a series against TB about 500 times out of 1000 and about 380 times out of 1000 against Boston. So yes we match up evenly against TB but against Boston, they'd be the favorites.

What about you, what would your answer be?

Well.. Leafs are 0-10 in elimination games… so… 0-1000?

 

[robertmac43]

I know this is a fun narrative people like to perpetuate, but it’s not rooted in reality at all.

Yeah it's just people rinsing and repeating a tired story line..... Nothing there.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Right now I feel Toews and McCabe (and possibly Rafferty) might just be what we need to get us over the hump. What worries me is giving up a 1st round pick for a rental, Toews, unless we would be able to resign him for a bargain.
If Muzzin does retire, McCabe's contract would replace that, plus there'd be some left over to help elsewhere, so I wouldn't mind giving up a 1st round pick for him. And Lafferty is still signed for 1 more year at a very reasonable cap hit. The only thing that would still be missing is some snarl and grit in the bottom 6.

Yeah I agree with all this.

Well.. Leafs are 0-10 in elimination games… so… 0-1000?

Interesting perspective.

 

[Clark4Ever]

That has been the persistent issue for years.
They don't have the go through the wall attitude, they look for a way around it.

Overall, I agree. However, I think last year's team was an exception. I thought they played hard enough to win and were undone by bad luck and very questionable officiating.

 

[ChadBigly]

I know this is a fun narrative people like to perpetuate, but it’s not rooted in reality at all.

Tell me you've never played without telling me you've never played.

why would I not say 380?

Because it's so close to 400, but not actually 400. I'm wondering if there's some specific reason you didn't just round it up.

 

[Hellcat]

It's team vs team.

True but how often have you heard we got out goalied or we got out coached? One person can have a heavy weight on our playoff success or falure.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Because it's so close to 400, but not actually 400. I'm wondering if there's some specific reason you didn't just round it up.

No specific reason. 380 was just what I came up with so why would I round up? I feel like 400 is being too optimistic, 350 is being too pessimistic so ... 380 is my final answer. Ask me again tomorrow, maybe I'll feel differently then.

True but how often have you heard we got out goalied or we got out coached? One person can have a heavy weight on our playoff success or falure.

I just feel like every time we've lost, there's always several places to assign the blame and in the end you win or lose as a team. Was easier when Phaneuf was around, we could just blame him every time.

Overall, I agree. However, I think last year's team was an exception. I thought they played hard enough to win and were undone by bad luck and very questionable officiating.

+1

If it true that something clicked and and they're finally on the right track, learning what it takes blah blah blah, I wonder if Giordano had anything to do with it. Interesting to ponder ...

 

[Sypher04]

Tell me you've never played without telling me you've never played.

Swing and a miss. For someone so condescending, you’re wrong an awful lot